Statistics and probability: bike raffles

[joosttx]

So I entered a raffle to win a Bingham Built MTB. My number is 131. The drawing (really 3) will randomly pick three numbers 0-9 to get the three digit number (not quite how they are doing it but this makes the question a little more simple). The three drawings will be independent. An example will be:

Drawing 1: 5
Drawing 2: 6
Drawing 3: 7

Winning # 567

So are my odds better for winning having three different numbers like 123, 729, 891 than having a number with at least two numbers the same like 775, 131 955....

If memory serves I have a better chance of winning with 3 different numbers since I think (guessing) there are more three different number combinations than same number (meaning at least 2/3 same number) combinations.

Ok smartie pants lets here your arguements and explainations...

[robin3mj]

Are they selling exactly 1,000 tickets? (Numbers 000-999)

The repeating, or consecutive numbers may seem rarer, because they are the go-to scenarios for explaining statistics, but the odds are all the same.. For example- the odds of the draw-er pulling 1-1-1 are 0.1% or 1 in 1,000, but so are the odds of them pulling 5-6-7.

[Dallas Tex]

I'm assuming the selections are made with replacement based on your explanation.

Your odds would not change. the odds of 1-1-1 getting pulled are the same as 4-7-2 getting pulled. You have a 1 in 10 chance of pulling the #1 out of hat for the first number. With replacement you have the same 1 in 10 odds of pulling a 1 for the 2nd and 3rd place.

The probability would change dramatically. As the probability of of getting the same number is a function of the prior event. So think (1/10) x (1/10) x (1/10)

[joosttx]

Are they selling exactly 1,000 tickets? (Numbers 000-999)
.

Assume they are... for the excercise.

[vvv321]

So I entered a raffle to win a Bingham Built MTB. My number is 131. The drawing (really 3) will randomly pick three numbers 0-9 to get the three digit number (not quite how they are doing it but this makes the question a little more simple). The three drawings will be independent. An example will be:

Drawing 1: 5
Drawing 2: 6
Drawing 3: 7

Winning # 567

So are my odds better for winning having three different numbers like 123, 729, 891 than having a number with at least two numbers the same like 775, 131 955....

If memory serves I have a better chance of winning with 3 different numbers since I think (guessing) there are more three different number combinations than same number (meaning at least 2/3 same number) combinations.

Ok smartie pants lets here your arguements and explainations...

Well, if they are using an online "random" number generator, a lot of those actually use something, like the temperature of your processor or the temperature of the weather in certain location to base their numbers off of. In the end it all depends on how they getting their numbers.

[joosttx]

Well, if they are using an online "random" number generator, a lot of those actually use something, like the temperature of your processor or the temperature of the weather in certain location to base their numbers off of. In the end it all depends on how they getting their numbers.

Assume completely random. This is more a theorical discussion than real.

[vvv321]

Assume completely random. This is more a theorical discussion than real.

If it's actually random, then it's completely random, no number is better than the next.

[joosttx]

If it's actually random, then it's completely random, no number is better than the next.

Then why when you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row your odds of getting tails is higher than heads on the next flip?

[j44ke]

Then why when you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row your odds of getting tails is higher than heads on the next flip?

They aren't.

[vvv321]

Then why when you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row your odds of getting tails is higher than heads on the next flip?

It isn't more likely. You might PERCEIVE it to be more likely but it's not in fact more likely.

[j44ke]

Even if tails does come up - it wasn't more likely than heads.

There is no gravitational pull in randomness, by definition.

Wait - have you been gambling behind the A&P and the dealer was selling you increased odds on coin tosses?

[Dallas Tex]

Then why when you flip a coin and get heads five times in a row your odds of getting tails is higher than heads on the next flip?

You are confusing the terms ‘odds’ and ‘probability’

The odds stay the same every flip. The probability changes because it’s a function of the prior flip.

[joosttx]

Even if tails does come up - it wasn't more likely than heads.

There is no gravitational pull in randomness, by definition.

Wait - have you been gambling behind the A&P and the dealer was selling you increased odds on coin tosses?

In series h,h,h,h it does increase the probability you will get a tails. History matters. Therefore if you are picking a series of number randomly (ten sided coin 0-9) the prior result has bearing on the future result. Isnt this the bonferroni thingy?

[joosttx]

It isn't more likely. You might PERCEIVE it to be more likely but it's not in fact more likely.

Flip enough times the series will equal .5 chance. Therefore, a subset (h,h,h....) of the series which
Skews the result say .6 heads .4 tails then the next flip in the series has a greater chance to be tails than heads

[vvv321]

Flip enough times the series will equal .5 chance. Therefore, a subset (h,h,h) of the series which
Skews the result say .6 heads .4 tails then the next flip in the series has a greater chance to be tails than heads

This isn't true. Unless it's an untrustworthy coin each flip will be random, equal chance of being heads or tails.

[Matthew Strongin]

In series h,h,h,h it does increase the probability you will get a tails. History matters. Therefore if you are picking a series of number randomly (ten sided coin 0-9) the prior result has bearing on the future result. Isnt this the bonferroni thingy?

Each coin flip is an independent event. The coin doesn't care how many times it landed on heads previously.

[joosttx]

Each coin flip is an independent event. The coin doesn't care how many times it landed on heads previously.

Got it. 50% chance no matter of history. But what can be predicted the possibility of flipping a series of heads is less than a head tails repeat.

[joosttx]

Got it. 50% chance no matter of history. But what can be predicted the possibility of flipping a series of heads is less than a head tails repeat.

So would the probability of selecting 2 of the same numbers in a series of 3 numbers be less than selecting 3 different numbers?

[joosttx]

.5^3 probability to flip head 3xs.

.1*.9 vs .9*.8 (am I right on this?) I don’t think I am

[vvv321]

So would the probability of selecting 2 of the same numbers in a series of 3 numbers be less than selecting 3 different numbers?

No. It is the same.