Can anyone - outside of the US - provide a different perspective on DPRK?

[false_aesthetic]

I've been checking out US + UK media and have gathered the following:

Lil' Kim-un is a brat.
DPRK is angry because of our increased sanctions.
DPRK doesn't really have firepower.
DPRK is a poseur.
Cont. US doesn't have to worry but S. Korea, Japan and maybe Guam do.


Anyone in Asia (esp. S. Korea or Japan) care to give your take on this?

[vertical_doug]

Unconfirmed reports the french are preparing to surrender.

[jerk]

here's what i told a pal on facebook:

- there's at least three distinct cliques among the DPRK leadership and they've all got proverbial revolvers to each other's heads and by keeping the kid in power they all make sure no one keeps them away from their place at the trough. the latest sabre rattling has more to do with domestic consolodation of power than anything else. the south koreans aren't gonna put up with any shit and they have twice the population....but the bigger issue is the chinese will occupy north korea in about three minutes and put in their own guys if the current military steps out of line or acts crazy. china doesn't want more us navy presence in the pacific and eventually they'll force the idiots to calm down.

[vpierce]

and eventually they'll force the idiots to calm down.

And the Norks with spin it as a victory and we offer food and fuel aid in honor of Dear Leader's greatness.

[vertical_doug]

In all seriousness, watch what countries do, not what they say.

DPRK advised foreign embassies they cannot guarantee their safety after April 10th. The Russian and Chinese Embassies are staying put so far.
April 15th is the anniversary of Kim-il Sung's birth in 1912. Chances are grand-son conducts a show of military force on that day. The plan must be to conclude this with a proclamation of victory over the Americans by then.

[Mike Mcdermid]

I thought the world just assumed because of the rumours he had spent time being schooled in europe he wouldn't get the pointy toys with warheads out and point them at people.....its rude

however looking at lardy boy he rumours of his time in the west could be true, that guy has eaten a lot of hamburgers,

other rumours are that he would like a phone and an ipad

[Saab2000]

other rumours are that he would like a phone and an ipad

He's also pissed that he didn't get to do to Disney World in Tokyo like his brother.

[MarkC]

p47 of the most recent Economist: The latest rhetoric is intended for internal consumption to bolster the image of the new leader inside North Korea.

[vertical_doug]

p47 of the most recent Economist: The latest rhetoric is intended for internal consumption to bolster the image of the new leader inside North Korea.

This is the conventional quote. It is more likely a U.S./China issue. U.S. is provoking Kim to make life difficult for the Chinese and unless they cool the industrial/military hacking, the U.S. will use this as a pretense to increase military presence in SE Asia.

[MarkC]

Fly a few B2s around, move some carriers. That always works out well in the end.

[Zimmermanbicycle]

This is the conventional quote. It is more likely a U.S./China issue. U.S. is provoking Kim to make life difficult for the Chinese and unless they cool the industrial/military hacking, the U.S. will use this as a pretense to increase military presence in SE Asia.

this,I reckon
-Eric

[Mike Mcdermid]

its no problem kim jong number un says he will be kicking off proceedings on the 10th of april

[TomW]

Anyone in Asia (esp. S. Korea or Japan) care to give your take on this?

Currently in Seoul and working about 5 minutes walk from the South Korean Presidential Palace (Blue House) and the US Embassy so not exactly in the best place.

I think the basic answer is no-one really knows. The problem is there are four new leaders in the region as South Korea, Japan and China have new PMs/ Presidents and DPRK has a new dictator/ despot. They are all still finding their feet and having to deal with a military situation with an eye to politics (i.e. voters or a starving populace).

Last year around this time (as this 'crisis' is a yearly one) I didn't have a concern at all. This time I am concerned. In 2010 DPRK sunk a South Korean ship and bombed one of its islands. The response protocols have now been changed so frontline commanders can fire back immediately if DPRK does something similar (previously they had to wait for central and US sign off). The concern is that could lead to an escalating barrage between two ideologically opposed countries with nuclear capabilities (South Korea piggy backing the US').

Further DPRK has recently shut down the Kaesong industrial complex (think a DPRK labour center where citizens work for South Korean companies to earn USD for the regime) which is concerning as it is a fundamental source of income for the country. Combine that with a fourth nuclear test in the very near future, the US doing flyovers of DPRK with nuclear bombers and heightened tension on both sides and it could go thoroughly wrong.

A friend's father who is in the military has advised her to get a backpack together with 3 days clothes and food and USD1,000 in cash so she could hike out of Seoul if something happens. There will be no real warning as neither South Korea or the US can issue an alert when it is actually justified (i.e. now) as it would undermine confidence and give DPRK a win. Instead it will be a very last minute affair.

I am also preparing an exit just in case. Though - and in keeping with the forum - it will be two bikes to ride South and get a boat to Japan. The roads will be gridlocked and I think the river path is the safe and fastest route out.

My underlying hope is that no-one actually wants a war. Both the US and China would prefer a status quo. I can just see many avenues where it goes bad fast.

[false_aesthetic]

^^^

Thanks for the insight!

[robin3mj]

I am also preparing an exit just in case. Though - and in keeping with the forum - it will be two bikes to ride South and get a boat to Japan. The roads will be gridlocked and I think the river path is the safe and fastest route out.

My underlying hope is that no-one actually wants a war. Both the US and China would prefer a status quo. I can just see many avenues where it goes bad fast.

This is where we would have a good, spirited debate about whether the best bike to escape an apocalypse is one with fenders and a rack, or a traditional stage race bike- if the situation wasn't so damned scary.
Stay safe, and thanks for your input from close to the source.

[TomW]

This is where we would have a good, spirited debate about whether the best bike to escape an apocalypse is one with fenders and a rack, or a traditional stage race bike

Well at the moment the bike options are likely to be:

Me - Either (1) Yamaguchi race bike with Mission Workshop backpack; or (2) Home brazed bike with panniers.

The key difficulty with this choice is that the Yamaguchi is a far better bike but obviously a backpack is not an entirely sensible Apocalypse escaping option. The home brazed bike with panniers is more a solid workhorse but I maintain some concerns that it could spontaneously combust due to ineptitude with a torch.

Her - Either (1) Chinese Phoenix frame singlespeed which weighs about the same as a tank; (2) my old bike polo Bianchi b.u.s.s. with a ridiculously low gearing; or (3) the Nagasawa Di2 racer that I am waiting on.

The preferred option is obviously (3) and I am chasing Nagasawa to finish this (it was a late wedding present from me to her) and I am hoping the prospect of us both dying might spur him on. If that fails the Chinese Phoenix frame could probably ram a DPRK tank to death but is about as reliable as a DPRK tank. The Bianchi will involve excess pedaling and could induce knee problems in her.

Unfortunately none of the options cater for fenders. The other key variable is our cat. We are trying to work out the best way to transport her. . . Maybe it is time to invest in a kid's trailer.

The ridiculous thing is this is all hilarious and stupid. But also serious; there is probably no country to be in right now with a more elevated risk profile but it is being suppressed to ensure that DPRK doesn't get a 'win' and the Korean stock market and economy doesn't bomb. I'm not saying that isn't sensible as South Korea is responsible for 3% of the world's entire economy and is at the heart of the global supply chain (you won't be able to get an iPhone in the near future if it goes wrong...). But, still, it means that domestically we are living in a deluded wonderland.

But back to the bikes, if things go bad and it is less serious than a nuclear bomb (i.e. sustained bombardment of Seoul by artillery etc.) a bike really is a very sensible way to get the hell out of Dodge. Seoul and Korea is traffic logged at the best of times and the Government has just finished a quite fantastic bike path all the way from Seoul to Busan of 500km. Easy riverside riding all the way and no concerns about shot up roads or congestion. Also bypasses major military bases.

[false_aesthetic]

^^
Funny how this morning's interviews with S. Koreans made it sound like they're all bored and not really worried. The reporter almost summed it up as, "Blah blah blah . . . this thing again?"


Also while I'm not really too hip to what's going on on the TV, I can tell you that zombies love bike paths. I saw it on a commercial in a bar. You probably need a blunderbus mount.

[Jaq]

You know, I wouldn't mind my Diamondback 26er and a backpack. Probably swap the Shimano pedals for clips; then they're boot-friendly. Keep the shrader valves because they're so much more universal. Aluminum frame with an extra support bar under the TT; I could probably cut it out and use it for something in a pinch.

But I'd probably keep the lawyer-tabs; I'm no scofflaw.

[TomW]

^^
Funny how this morning's interviews with S. Koreans made it sound like they're all bored and not really worried. The reporter almost summed it up as, "Blah blah blah . . . this thing again?"


Also while I'm not really too hip to what's going on on the TV, I can tell you that zombies love bike paths. I saw it on a commercial in a bar. You probably need a blunderbus mount.

Yeah I think one (and DPRK) can only keep the stress up so much. The elevated tension happens pretty much every year at this time due to joint US-S Korea military excercises. Still, this year is something a bit different. S Koreans are "blah blah blah" but there is much more "what if" talk.

When Kim Jong Il died I was at lunch with 20 Koreans and they barely looked up from their food when they heard it. Same with previous threats to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire", however, this time people are audibly talking about - calmly - what they would do 'if'. People are talking about where their family live (i.e. north or south of the country) and their concern that this could escalate due to misunderstandings. Generally though for a country which has been told it will be nuked it is bizarrely calm...

And I would love to mount a lance on the bike. That would be a great bike path clearing tool :)

[jerk]

^^
Funny how this morning's interviews with S. Koreans made it sound like they're all bored and not really worried. The reporter almost summed it up as, "Blah blah blah . . . this thing again?"


Also while I'm not really too hip to what's going on on the TV, I can tell you that zombies love bike paths. I saw it on a commercial in a bar. You probably need a blunderbus mount.

not to generalize, but i have never met a korean who didn't sound slightly bored and not really worried.....actual conversation i had with a friend who's mom just had a stroke this week. "gie-sup, your mom's in the hospital i'm so sorry to hear that." him: "uh. yeah." anything i can do. "uh, yeah." what "do you have patch kits at your bike shop?" yeah. "uh, ok. bye." this was a phone call to him. i've known this dood for 30 years. there could be a zombie apocolypse going on and i think the collective korean response would be, "uh".