Covid19

[fastupslowdown]

From a French website. This is what they are recommending to citizens returning from a trip to an impacted area

Within 14 days of return:
- Monitor your temperature twice a day;
- Watch for symptoms of respiratory infection (cough, difficulty breathing, etc.);
- Wear a surgical mask when you are in front of another person and when you have to go out;
- Wash your hands regularly or use a hydro-alcoholic solution;
- Avoid contact with frail people (pregnant women, the chronically ill, the elderly, etc.);
- Avoid frequenting places where there are fragile people (hospitals, maternity hospitals, accommodation structures for the elderly, etc.);
- Avoid any non-essential outing (large gatherings, restaurants, cinema, etc.).
- Workers / students: wherever possible, favor teleworking and avoid close contact (meetings, elevators, canteen, etc.);
- Children, middle school students, high school students should not be sent to nursery, school, college or high school, given the difficulty in wearing a mask all day.

What concerns me is in this country we have way too many people who don't care about their fellow neighbor and might not voluntarily engage in such practices -Mike G

[NYCfixie]

What concerns me is in this country we have way too many people who don't care about their fellow neighbor and might not voluntarily engage in such practices -Mike G

Therein lies the problem. People go to work all the time with the Flu and other respiratory illnesses so they probably will go to work even if they have this more contagions virus.

[Too Tall]

Coronavirus Epidemic: Updates, Spread, Symptoms, & Treatment (COVID-19) - YouTube

This series of video updates has been informative if anyone cares to burn through them. They become a bit redundant, but the physician covers some good micro and epidemiology basics in some of the earlier videos.

Very useful esp. to bring intentional informed focus for pals who are willing to invest some time.

[Too Tall]

Yeap, Dr. Li Wenliang who warned of the virus, was attacked by the State for rumor spreading, and later died from infection should be given the Medal of the Republic from China. For as bad as it looks now, the Chinese just shut the door before the real Lunar New Year rush began. One week later, and the situation now would be exponentially worse.

Ummm pause on that for a sec. Yep, the State media et. al. really sqrewed the pooch at onset. They are making up for it in spades. let me count the ways. China is providing massive timely transparent info. and they are quite adept with medicine at the highest levels. I'm no China fanboy, just saying it like it is so don't jump down their throats so fast. Yep, they definitely had a disgusting first response. Let's get past that ASAP.

Sean does g-ds work. Full stop. Wash your hands and take care of those kids.

*Reminder. Josh has political PTSD. If you choose to comment on politics here be gentle or I'll just have to throttle you. << That was measured right?

[vertical_doug]

Ummm pause on that for a sec. Yep, the State media et. al. really sqrewed the pooch at onset. They are making up for it in spades. let me count the ways. China is providing massive timely transparent info. and they are quite adept with medicine at the highest levels. I'm no China fanboy, just saying it like it is so don't jump down their throats so fast. Yep, they definitely had a disgusting first response. Let's get past that ASAP.

Sean does g-ds work. Full stop. Wash your hands and take care of those kids.

Josh,
I don't think my post is critical of China. It highlights the amazing sacrifice of a medical professional who tried to spread the word while saving his patients who later died. If that is not heroic, I don't know what is.

As for China, initial response was bad, but they did manage to slam the door shut. Of the 70,000+ infections in Wuhan/Hubei, how many of those people were prevented from travelling.... although not a complete save, it drastically bought time.

[Clab]

Right now flu is more deadly as there are more cases. COVID actually much more deadly for people with comorbid conditions. The big issue is lack of immunity in the population and the number of cases that become serious and require some intervention. It's around 20%. Think of how many people in the US can't afford to go to the doctor. I imagine there will be self quarantine advised, not to stop it, but to slow it. The infectious rate is still unknown (Flu is about 2 people per infected individual, this has been thought to be up to 6-7 but we need more data). Given the lack of savings and manufacturing that happens on time, we're in for some interesting times.

[AngryScientist]

NYC subway ride this morning featured an increased number of surgi mask wearers. i kept my gloves on for good measure. eek.

[Too Tall]

[QUOTE=vertical_doug;992428]

Ummm pause on that for a sec. Yep, the State media et. al. really sqrewed the pooch at onset. They are making up for it in spades. let me count the ways. China is providing massive timely transparent info. and they are quite adept with medicine at the highest levels. I'm no China fanboy, just saying it like it is so don't jump down their throats so fast. Yep, they definitely had a disgusting first response. Let's get past that ASAP.

Sean does g-ds work. Full stop. Wash your hands and take care of those kids.
/QUOTE]

Josh,
I don't think my post is critical of China. It highlights the amazing sacrifice of a medical professional who tried to spread the word while saving his patients who later died. If that is not heroic, I don't know what is.

As for China, initial response was bad, but they did manage to slam the door shut. Of the 70,000+ infections in Wuhan/Hubei, how many of those people were prevented from travelling.... although not a complete save, it drastically bought time.

You are right, I'll drop for 20.

[Clean39T]

Meh, bring it on. Not trying to be in-sensitive to the ~2% who will perish from this, but my livelihood now involves working with high school kids each day. I'm more concerned with the girl who is cutting herself today over a break-up and telling her friends "you won't miss me when I'm gone" or the high-flying class leading senior boy who just found out he was disqualified from military service because of medical history and is now texting things like "my plan now is homelessness or suicide".

It may not have been the best way to say it - but I get what you're saying.. All threats are relative and local. Thank you for your work to help save the lives of those kids and get them headed on a better path.

[Chik]

I used to tutor stats & probabilities, so I know how tricky it is when looking at data, but this blurb from today is not exactly reassuring:

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

[Too Tall]

I used to tutor stats & probabilities, so I know how tricky it is when looking at data, but this blurb from today is not exactly reassuring:

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Ding ding. Yeah I've been taking cuff notes too.

I might start a thread in the chefs subforum. "What are you cooking for the apocalypse?"

[GrantM]

I used to tutor stats & probabilities, so I know how tricky it is when looking at data, but this blurb from today is not exactly reassuring:

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Yeah, i don't think that the regular flu kills anywhere near the rate of C19, especially in the US.
The other part of this is we don't want something like 50 million people in North America to get it.
Even at 2%, that's 1,000,000 deaths.



-g

[SeanEasley]

It's been shown that it's more lethal than the 'usual' flu, but I don't know if we should be concerned that this is likely to be another 1918 spanish flu. I'd like to think (current clown show administration notwithstanding) that our means for controlling outbreaks are significantly more advanced than at that time. That and information is much more available now than it was then.

[SeanEasley]

My livelihood involves the care and housing of seniors, for whom the mortality rate of this virus (as well as the common flu) is many orders of magnitude higher than the overall population. So if this is going to be the new normal, we’ll have to learn to deal with it, but getting to there from where we’re sitting today is going to be quite rocky.

I used to work with older people too. Their vulnerability to illnesses that are some kind of inconvenience to the rest of us is just part of being human as you know.

It may not have been the best way to say it - but I get what you're saying.. All threats are relative and local. Thank you for your work to help save the lives of those kids and get them headed on a better path.

To be clear, my comment about 2% perishing is not me being glib, I'm referring to the 2% mortality rate that has been reported for Covid19 so far. Science, not opinions.

The threat of pandemics is just how life is going to be with 7.7 B people on planet earth I'm afraid. I don't really have a choice but to be OK with that is what I was conveying.

[PaMtbRider]

It's been shown that it's more lethal than the 'usual' flu, but I don't know if we should be concerned that this is likely to be another 1918 spanish flu. I'd like to think (current clown show administration notwithstanding) that our means for controlling outbreaks are significantly more advanced than at that time. That and information is much more available now than it was then.

I would agree that we are better equipped to deal with an outbreak, but we also interact globally on a much greater scale than we did in 1918

[TTX1]

My $0.02 - Quality of data is improving, C19 will flame out in the next 4-6 weeks.

As others have noted, C19 looks more or less like Influenza or SARS in terms of rate of infection. I don't think anyone touched on the respiratory aspect in this thread - like other Corona-type illnesses, this thing will likely taper as we head into warmer, moister Spring weather.

I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness of novel viruses or global pandemics, only stating that in the Northern Hemisphere we're weeks away from sustained warmer temps and increasing humidity - conditions which tend to limit the spread of this type of virus.

While I may be a professional optimist, my bet is that this thing will flame out - much like SARS.

Personally, I've been in Paris, San Fran, Vancouver, Toronto, London, and Boston in the past ~ 30 days. My observation: The BA lounge was hopping in Paris - but the Cathay Pacific lounge next door was a ghost town (quelle surprise). Recently it's more common to see fellow travelers disinfect their airplane seat/armrest/tray in recent weeks (good!).

Also, in regard to the economic impact - China is getting back to work. The return to work from CNY is always a gradual process, this year the govt imposed a mandatory extension in early Feb that kept factories closed. If the markets reacted in real time, the adjustment would have been made immediately. Instead, we see it two weeks later... There is lag between action, analysis, and measurable impact. Point is: Factories are resuming work as I type, and in another ~two weeks we should see most production returning to normal. It will be bumpy, because disruptions were unplanned - but we'll get there.

I know TT said no politics, but... it's an election year. All the companies that are providing downward guidance on FY impact of C19 will likely recover faster than expected and then spin results as unexpected upside. Markets will respond well. Whatever uncertainty the election brings to the market will be answered and we'll see a slight bump to end the year flat overall with most of the losses restored.

You're welcome.

[vertical_doug]

I think the real risk here is excess capacity has been rung out of the US Hospital System (same is true with UK). If the virus were to really spread in local clusters, there is no way the US Hospital system will handle it.

I think the lack of test kits and labs for diagnostic analysis is a mini-version of this.

I am watching Japan closely. For as diligent and clean the Japanese public is, the virus continues to spread on secondary infections. It seems inevitable.

[Chik]

Japan has been a sterling example of how not to deal with the situation. Given the gross ineptitude of politicians, particularly those in government (OK, sorry, no politics, Toots said, but there's no political bias necessary to come to that view), it's sadly unsurprising, but it doesn't make it any less embarrassing. If it were only a matter of leadership vacuum, it would be one thing, but there has also been official obstruction, now followed by knee jerk reactions.

In contrast, Taiwan has sprung to action like a boss.

[Bobonli]

The real threat is people. People make mistakes. And they don't recognize the mistakes until it's too late. The following is absolutely true:

Harken back to the Ebola scare. Thousands of hours spent preparing healthcare workers to recognize what it looks like and how to isolate the patient. A patient walks into a NYC hospital with many risk factors and signs and symptoms. Tells his story to the ED team. No one recognizes it. He gets admitted to a general medical ward with dozens of other patients and healthcare workers making contact with him. No one recognizes that he's getting sicker. Someone thinks to call an infectious disease specialist who declares, "It's Ebola, run for your lives!!" It took a long time for the 'machine' to kick into gear to get him to a specialty center and by the time it did someone else came along and made an alternative diagnosis that it was not Ebola. It wasn't, thankfully for all who had contact with the patient. Looking back at it, he met all the criteria for immediate diversion to a specialty center.

There are so many things that the healthcare system has to do, above and beyond caring for sick people, that it's overwhelming. If I told you all the things just the ED staff has to screen for on a daily basis your head would spin. Drug use, alcoholism, smoking, domestic abuse, psych/mental health, disease of the week, immunization status, do you fall down a lot, what pronoun do you prefer (yes, that's a real thing now) ....the list goes on and on. The result is cognitive overload and the slightly feverish person with a cough slips through the cracks and makes contact with 100 other people during the ED visit.

My employer released a bulletin last night telling anyone who's been traveling to those locales to stay home. Feel sick, stay home. Whatever you do, don't go to a hospital. I'm in the hospital business.

[Too Tall]

Good conversations. Kudos forever to the VSalon healthcare workers.