Ukraine

[bigbill]

It can also be attributed to the fog of war. It’s possible we’ll never know why this atrocity took place. If it is a deliberate act, done at Putin’s direction or with his approval, it either represents madness or animal cunning. The fallout will eventually drift over Russian territory. Putin could claim that the Ukrainians deliberately destroyed the facility to spread fallout on Russia. We’re all trying to make sense of a war in progress. That just isn’t possible.

Greg

I'm not sure what would cause fallout from the power plant. The reports I've read said a training building was shelled and caught fire. The reactors and associated piping are inside a containment building. Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a fire and meltdown. The smoke and steam spread contamination into the atmosphere. I don't see how you could trigger that kind of event externally. Power plants aren't nuclear bombs, it's a matter of physics. Also, the Russians want the plant intact, they can't exploit Ukraine's resources without power.

I'll admit it does make for good headlines and spent most of my adult life operating reactors.

[thollandpe]

…they shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant…

My best interpretation would be that they are strategically taking out power supplied by that plant. Hopefully with enough competence to not involve the radioactive areas. Obviously that targets the civilian population. There seems very little regard for international laws and agreements on warfare.

Also, the Russians want the plant intact, they can't exploit Ukraine's resources without power.

If the intent was to interrupt power production, and keep the plant ready for future use, wouldn’t it be equally effective and a shitload safer to sever some transmission lines or take down a tower or two?

[gregl]

I'm not sure what would cause fallout from the power plant. The reports I've read said a training building was shelled and caught fire. The reactors and associated piping are inside a containment building. Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a fire and meltdown. The smoke and steam spread contamination into the atmosphere. I don't see how you could trigger that kind of event externally. Power plants aren't nuclear bombs, it's a matter of physics. Also, the Russians want the plant intact, they can't exploit Ukraine's resources without power.

I'll admit it does make for good headlines and spent most of my adult life operating reactors.

Very much appreciate your perspective and experience. When the news first came out, the information did not have much detail. Just "nuclear plant under attack." My concern was that even if the Russians were trying to execute a precision strike, one near miss could set off a catastrophic event. I thought about Fukushima in 2011, where the reactor buildings were not damaged by the tsunami, but the power for cooling/control systems was lost. As with most things in life, it's the unplanned, unknown issues that lead to disaster.

Greg

[j44ke]

Friend in Prague forwarded this from a mutual acquaintance in Warsaw. Thought it was informative. Name of embassy was redacted. From two days ago.

——

Wednesday, March 2nd, Warsaw City Hall


I met a friend at City Hall from 1-3pm today to learn how Warsaw was dealing with the influx of refugees and also with delivering support to Kyiv.

Below is an example of the phone calls that my friend dealt with during our meeting:

1) Call from Kyiv city hall to confirm receipt of a truck with food, diapers and basic medical supplies sent by Warsaw. The trip is 480 miles which takes around 10 hours. This is an example of city-to-city assistance.

2) Call from owner of a trucking company who has a spare 18 wheeler that could be used to deliver supplies to Kyiv. He asks my friend if the city has supplies. He replies “we have several tons of supplies, e.g. canned food. Come and fill the truck”. The owner of the trucking company needs to find a driver. If the driver is a Ukrainian male, he won’t be able to leave the Ukraine after the delivery (as men ages 18-60 are not allowed to leave the country as they must fight). Since it’s difficult to find a male volunteer to drive the truck, they start looking for female truck drivers who could drive it across the border and then walk back across into Poland.

3) Call from XXXX embassy about offering 50MW portable power stations that are the size of a giant truck to be driven to Kyiv and connected to the grid. First thing is to find somebody from the Electric Utility in Kyiv who they can speak to about the portable power station and to find an engineer in Kyiv who could connect it once delivered. Considering that most people spend their days/nights in the metro, finding those people is difficult.

4) Call from the media requesting to visit one of four of Warsaw’s refugee camps. While over 250,000 refugees entered Poland in the last six days, around 35,000 are now in Warsaw. The National govt deals with the majority, but at the City level, the Mayor has established a refugee center which has processed 3,000 refugees and they are housed in sports stadiums which have around 750 beds each. The thing is that the bulk of the refugees in Warsaw are not Ukrainian. They are African or Middle Eastern who have used the Ukrainian war as a fast track into the EU. Many were not living in the Ukraine legally… Afghans, Somalis, Nigerians, Syrians, etc. If the media sees that the “Ukrainian refugee camps are full of non-Ukrainians” it’s a media disaster for Warsaw. But what can you do, they came across the border along with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian women & children. (no husbands as they have to stay & fight).

5) Call from a Ukrainian guy who has two buses that’s bringing children from Kyiv orphanages to Warsaw. He can’t stand that the buses go back to the Ukraine empty. So he calls city hall to ask for supplies. They say “Sure, come and pick them up. Fill your bus.”

6) Call from Kyiv city hall about an email with a detail list of medicine and medical supplies. Warsaw doesn’t have medical supplies, but they have contacts. A friend of a friend knows the CEO of a chain of pharmacies and they call him to see if he’d be open to providing anything on the list. There is a van ready to leave for Kyiv in two hours.

Meanwhile, the Russians are close enough to Kyiv to start firing rockets and missiles at Kyiv. The war is a week old, Putin is frustrated, so it’s time to indiscriminately attack Kyiv, in particular residential areas to build fear so they will surrender. Thank god that Ukraine still controls their air space as Russia could be flying jets over Kyiv and dropping bombs. The rocket attacks will grow in the next 1-2 days.

To give you an idea of the brutality of Putin. Let’s compare the Bosnian war in 1992 (when I lived in Prague) to the Russian invasion of Chechnya. The highest rate of fire in Sarajevo, during the Bosnian war was 3,500 shells per day. During the Russian attack of Grozny (capital of Chechnya) the figure reached 4,000 shells per hour! If Putin takes a similar strategy on Kyiv, a city of 4 million people will be reduced to rubble.

That will then create a mass exodus to Europe. Ukraine is a country of 44 million people. By this weekend one million will have fled (and that’s before civilian bombardment). Personally, I think that over 10 million people could leave the country.

Putin thought that Ukraine would have capitulated in two days and he would have inherited a country with infrastructure intact and inserted a puppet, pro-Russian govt. So as not to lose face he’s going hardball with complete decimation. Hoping that at the peace talks Zelensky will surrender. He won’t surrender as he knows that he and all military will be killed and thousands will be imprisoned. It’s a crazy all or nothing game.

Absolutely horrifying and completely depressing. The only thing that is amazing is the resilience of Ukrainian people and the support of Polish citizens, companies, NGO’s and the progressive mayors of large cities. You need to understand that the Polish national government is run by right-wing who have been criticizing Europe for the last five years (like how Trump criticized NATO). Now those idiots have their tails between their legs, as Poland needs Europe to protect them if NATO is attacked.

Yesterday the Polish govt told the city of Warsaw to stop delivering trucks with aid to the Ukraine. They said everything could be organized at the National level. Why? They want all the credit, all the publicity. They want to be re-elected. The Mayor of Warsaw is still delivering trucks. He has a relationship with the Mayor of Kyiv. For him it’s not about gaining political points, but about crisis management and helping your neighbor.

—

[bigbill]

If the intent was to interrupt power production, and keep the plant ready for future use, wouldn’t it be equally effective and a shitload safer to sever some transmission lines or take down a tower or two?

The Russians are trying to instill fear. They shelled a training building located a decent distance away from the reactor containment buildings. Given the state of Russian logistical support so far, they'll likely need to power to stay on for all but the areas they're attacking. Generators burn fuel and so far the Russians aren't very good at delivery.

[bigbill]

Very much appreciate your perspective and experience. When the news first came out, the information did not have much detail. Just "nuclear plant under attack." My concern was that even if the Russians were trying to execute a precision strike, one near miss could set off a catastrophic event. I thought about Fukushima in 2011, where the reactor buildings were not damaged by the tsunami, but the power for cooling/control systems was lost. As with most things in life, it's the unplanned, unknown issues that lead to disaster.

Greg

Fukushima has Boiling Water Reactors versus the Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR) in Ukraine. PWRs can achieve some level of natural circulation with a loss of pumping power. Fukushima had their emergency generator at ground level and it was submerged while running which wrecked the engine. The only PWR disaster would be a breach of the containment building and a pipe rupture. The plants have an emergency fill system to keep the core covered in such an event. Any spread of contamination would be localized. The Ukrainians know a thing or two about handling nuclear accidents.

In any event, it looks like they're only running one of the six plants which isn't unusual for multi-plant sites. Here's a good link.

https://world-nuclear.org/informatio...z/ukraine.aspx

[Gern]

Please forgive my ramble... I have been struggling mightily with Mearsheimer's perspective, but I believe that he is fundamentally correct. The argument really cuts against the grain, but I believe that I have identified why that is for me. The fundamental conflict of moral "rightness" versus strategic "correctness" is the core of this issue. We all feel moral outrage at the current events, but, it is true, that there is a historical context which underpins them. As to the benign, defensive posture of NATO -- ask the Afghans, Iraqis, Serbs and Libyans their opinion (they are not nuclear powers, true). That perhaps colors the perceptions of the Russian elites. We were allies with the USSR in WW2. That was not necessary morally correct, but it was strategically expeditious for the defeat of the Axis powers. Eastern Europe's political landscape was altered significantly with the conversion of previously "free" entities to Soviet client states -- states which did not regain their "freedom" after liberation from the Axis powers. That moral and strategic conflict plays out yet again. (does the Russian Federation still have a dead hand switch?) The moral repugnance I feel at the current course of events is tempered by the potential for even worse outcomes. It seems that the "great powers" decide and have done so since antiquity. I am unhappy with that state of affairs, but is seems to be the unflinching course of human history.

Does any country offer a grand theme to its citizens any more? What makes a country "good" or "better?" What about a political system engenders loyalty and trust? Our US experiment supposedly offers "truth, justice and freedom." I recognize that it doesn't sell as well as it used to. What unifies the Russian Federation? I truly want to know. Is it a shared sense of purpose, destiny, economic well-being, distributed power or something else? Why should Ukraine fight rather than capitulate? Is it because of national pride, a shared experience, hope for a continuing better future? It seems to me, as an interested observer, that the internal argument for Ukraine is one of hope for a better future, rather than a return to a limited and oppressive past. It appears to be selling well. I don't mean to demean the word "selling." We are all motivated the promise of something that will change us for the better.

It pains me greatly to see others suffer and lack the ability to determine their fate. I am pained by the callous analysis of human tragedy. I truly hope that Ukraine will prevail, but I fear that another tectonic shift in the balance of power will be required for that to happen. However, the optimist in me hopes that there may be a means of escaping these seemingly predestined outcomes, without starting WW3.

[jclay]

^^ at least you listened to it, gave it serious consideration and are willing to look in our national historical foreign policy mirror. Few people will do that; I tend to think that characteristic is an evolutionary holdover from past millennia when sticking with your tribe, right or wrong, was the only avenue to survival. Things are quite a bit different now, at least at least if we and other higher order life are to survive on this planet.

[Will Neide]

What unifies the Russian Federation? I truly want to know. Is it a shared sense of purpose, destiny, economic well-being, distributed power or something else? Why should Ukraine fight rather than capitulate? Is it because of national pride, a shared experience, hope for a continuing better future? It seems to me, as an interested observer, that the internal argument for Ukraine is one of hope for a better future, rather than a return to a limited and oppressive past. It appears to be selling well. I don't mean to demean the word "selling." We are all motivated the promise of something that will change us for the better.

The Russian Federation is unified on propaganda and lies. Same as China which is regurgitating false info fed to them through Russia.

2014 is a darn good reason for Ukraine to continue fighting, because that is who will be put back in power if Russia wins.

[classtimesailer]

The ______________ is unified on propaganda and lies. Same as _________ which is regurgitating false info fed to them through _____________.

2014 is a darn good reason for Ukraine to continue fighting, because that is who will be put back in power if Russia wins.

Where is the master motivator John McCaine.


Lots of names can go in those blanks in place of your choices.

[thollandpe]

Sky News team's harrowing account of their violent ambush in Ukraine this week

“I saw something hit the car and a tyre burst. We rolled to a stop. And then our world turned upside down.

The first round cracked the windscreen. Camera operator Richie Mockler huddled into the front passenger footwell. Then we were under full attack.

Bullets cascaded through the whole of the car, tracers, bullet flashes, windscreen glass, plastic seats, the steering wheel, and dashboard had disintegrated.

We didn't know it at the time, but we were later told by the Ukrainians that we were being ambushed by a saboteur Russian reconnaissance squad. It was professional, the rounds kept smashing into the car - they didn't miss.”

[j44ke]

I wondered when they’d start shooting members of the press. Bet they had “Press” taped on their car. Looks like their body armor was labeled.

[gregl]

The BBC is reporting that a Russian news agency had prepared an editorial that was supposed to be released after an anticipated quick victory. Apparently it was set to be published automatically, but was pulled when Ukraine put up much more resistance than expected. The editorial, in Russian, was saved on the web archive. If the provenance of the editorial is true, it’s a great window into Putin’s mindset.

Greg

[classtimesailer]

Where is the master motivator John McCaine.


Lots of names can go in those blanks in place of your choices.

There was a u-tube video here but you can find it: 2013 McCain Ukraine. If you are interested in the history of the current escalation.

[vertical_doug]

From Krugman as part of a discussion on Russia wealth.

The truth is that I was being generous in describing Russia as even a medium-size power. Britain and France are medium-size powers; Russia’s gross domestic product is only a bit more than half as large as either’s. It seemed remarkable that such an economically underweight state could support a world-class, highly sophisticated military — and maybe it couldn’t.

That’s not to deny that the force ravaging Ukraine has immense firepower, and it may well take Kyiv. But I wouldn’t be surprised if post-mortems on the Ukraine war eventually show that there was a lot more rot at the heart of Putin’s military than anyone realized.

[j44ke]

The risk right now for Ukraine is that public attention will wane as the war settles into a grinding siege of slow attrition. Then US and European governments will no longer feel as propelled to provide support and weapons or diplomatic support. Ukraine has to find a way to stay present and "above the fold". Which is such a macabre concept - almost as if they need to hire a marketing firm to keep their brand current with a specific demographic.

Meanwhile US former military are showing up at Ukraine embassies and consulates with their weapons to sign up to fight.

[thollandpe]

It’s an information war, one that’s been brewing for awhile, according to Fiona Hill:

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview.
But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back. — Politico

“But this is also a full-spectrum information war, and what happens in a Russian ‘all-of-society’ war, you soften up the enemy. You get the Tucker Carlsons and Donald Trumps doing your job for you. The fact that Putin managed to persuade Trump that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that Trump would be willing to give up Ukraine without any kind of fight, that’s a major success for Putin’s information war. I mean he has got swaths of the Republican Party — and not just them, some on the left, as well as on the right — masses of the U.S. public saying, ‘Good on you, Vladimir Putin,’ or blaming NATO, or blaming the U.S. for this outcome. This is exactly what a Russian information war and psychological operation is geared towards.”

[j44ke]

It is all very familiar. I know people who were children of parents active in the American Communist Party who still don't believe any of the historical documentation on Stalin.

[bigbill]

This is a good read this morning. BTW, RUSI is Royal United Services Institute. For all their flashy aircraft, maybe they're just not that good at using them.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...air-operations

[jclay]

I haven't heard one peep from mainstream news organizations that addresses the general point of view that John Mearsheimer advanced in the Cambridge University virtual presentation I posted; he not some wingnut and his position isn't unique, just ignored by the powers that be. I've listened to a couple other more general foreign policy presentations he's given and for my money the electorate needs to be hearing this stuff if we're to avoid these sorts of catastrophes going forward. And this has zero to do with giving Putin a pass; as the instigator of violence on Ukraine I hope he pays the heaviest price possible (I'm thinking the Hague and a rope) but the US has got to take a long, honest look in the mirror or we're going lose this planet.

Here's the link again for convenience; it's well worth listening to: