The Vaccine Thread

[htwoopup]

Re: variants

We don't know, right?

I know that a lot of what folks are doing in this thread is exercising their brain muscles for intellectual stimulation and good conversation. But it does make me a little nuts that some folks say we don’t know so let’s do nothing.

But I have to throw in here because I think you just hit the nail on the head with just those four words.

I think you just answered the question on why it is necessary to mask, get vaxed, maintain distances etc.

I have stayed out of this because I think it is as absurd an argument as folks intentionally not helping the environment because they claim that if humans damage it is unknown.

Quite simply, we don’t know.

But masks, vax, distancing does NOT hurt. So, given the dire situation one should (unless you are a hermit removed from all other human contact) do something which does not possibly cause any harm and may in fact help mitigate the situation.

As to the question on if someone who is vaxed but infects someone else be fired? As someone who was intimately involved in these kind of policy decisions that is also pretty obvious…if the employee was doing all that (s)he could to prevent the spread of the disease…masking, distancing, vaxed, etc…then no (s)he could not nor should (s)he be fired…but if (s)he was not doing everything thought to help in some way to prevent spread then (s)he should absolutely be separated from the employment for brazen disregard for others.

Now, I am going back into the mode of ignoring this thread because it just makes me sad that humans don’t want to do what is human about living in a human society.

[bigbill]

What's your company's policy on a vaccinated employee infecting other vaccinated employees? Can a person face disciplinary action for showing up to work with obvious Covid-19 symptoms?

Becoming infected with Covid at work from a coworker is an OSHA Recordable Event. It can bring corrective actions. Doesn't count for the flu. Companies have to show good faith measures to prevent spread. Our employees have their temperatures measured via IR cameras as they enter the building, require social distancing and masks for unvaccinated, have re-engineered production lines for social distancing, and provide PPE. That's about all you can do. We've offered shot clinics every Friday that includes J&J and Moderna. Finally, any manager will drive an employee to a local drug store for a vaccine (at no cost) anytime.

[beeatnik]

^Good info, thanks.

Just wondering how fully vaccinated (vaccine mandated workplaces) will handle outbreaks moving forward. If they become commonplace it could shift public opinion toward acceptance of endemic covid.

[ZenNMotion]

What's your company's policy on a vaccinated employee infecting other vaccinated employees? Can a person face disciplinary action for showing up to work with obvious Covid-19 symptoms?

What? Huh?
My team, my policy. We do evaluation and research on international development sectors including health, working in disempowered and under-resourced powderkeg communities where specious debate isn't a luxury, and masks save lives.

[beeatnik]

What? Huh?
My team, my policy. We do evaluation and research on international development sectors including health, working in disempowered and under-resourced powderkeg communities where specious debate isn't a luxury, and masks save lives.

I asked in good faith and you didn’t answer my question.

[ZenNMotion]

I asked in good faith and you didn’t answer my question.

No, I did not.

[fastupslowdown]

This is incorrect. According to the CDC and numbers on the ground. Also, reading between the proverbial lines and if one believes all epidemics are local, clusters of vaccinated outbreaks are now common in Los Angeles. At the moment, case rates on the affluent, knowledge economy-heavy Westside (and keep in mind, the vaccinated have very little incentive to test) are two to three times higher than in Boyle Heights (most total cases and highest historic case rate in Los Angeles), 25 to 45 daily cases per 100k versus 15 per 100k. 45 per 100k is what we used to believe was raging communit y transmission. Now you can either conclude that natural immunity is more protective accounting for lower current case rates in Boyle Heights or that vaccines are failing to prevent outbreaks. To me the best evidence is the case rate of 24 per 100k in Manhattan Beach (median home price 2M) where 99.5 of persons over 65 and 83% of children 12-17 are vaccinated. If one doesn't consider that universal....

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm

https://www.latimes.com/projects/cal...moButton-above

U.S. doesn't really track break-through infections. There's still a question to what extent vaccinated people can spread infection. U.S. has to rely on data from the U.K. and Israel. Right now I believe it's being etrapolated from viral load in vaccinated people which may or may not be reliable as a proxy.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/28/cdc-...lieb-says.html

[zachateseverything]

Re: variants

We don't know, right? If variants are evolving in immunocompromised persons or individuals with weak immune systems and if the waning efficacy numbers are to be believed, then this is the group most likely to drive mutations or variants. They're susceptible to begin with and the protection against infection is shorter and less robust.

When it comes to perceptions of the unvaccinated it's easy to abandon common sense. I'm sure there are Zero Fear Covid deniers who are 70 plus or in ill health (in that 10% hospitalization/death cohort) but it just seems obvious that the vast majority are younger and secure in their health status. Ie, if fear or self preservation didn't drive vaccination, 90% of 70 plus Americans wouldn't be vaccinated.

Now, is the younger, healthier unvaccinated population large enough to allow the virus to mutate as quickly as it mutates in vulnerable populations? There doesn't seem to be consensus on that point.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...ients.amp.html

Attachment 119276

You aren't looking at the big picture. Distilling this down into subcategories is a foolish endeavor when the vast majority of the global population has yet to be vaccinated due to access issues.

That said, if you live in America and haven't had the vaccine yet you're more than likely a privileged jackoff.

[gregl]

That said, if you live in America and haven't had the vaccine yet you're more than likely a privileged jackoff.

I'll respectfully suggest that we stay away from these generalizations. I deal with COVID denial and vaccine refusal everyday. Most of the people who oppose vaccination are not privileged, but rather they have been influenced by politically and power motivated lies. At the root of their vaccine opposition is fear. They fear for their health, they fear losing their freedoms, and they fear the unknown. Sadly, politically and power motivated persons and groups (who want to keep or increase their privileges...) have weaponized this fear for their personal benefit. Lies and propaganda are the primary tools for power seekers of all political persuations.

Greg

[SlowPokePete]

They fear for their health, they fear losing their freedoms, and they fear the unknown.

The irony here is that this is what they will get when they become infected.

SPP

[Saab2000]

The irony here is that this is what they will get when they become infected.

SPP

And it would appear that some initially-hesitant people are getting religion on this. Vaccination rates are going up again and that would seem to be a good thing.

[bigbill]

I'll respectfully suggest that we stay away from these generalizations. I deal with COVID denial and vaccine refusal everyday. Most of the people who oppose vaccination are not privileged, but rather they have been influenced by politically and power motivated lies. At the root of their vaccine opposition is fear. They fear for their health, they fear losing their freedoms, and they fear the unknown. Sadly, politically and power motivated persons and groups (who want to keep or increase their privileges...) have weaponized this fear for their personal benefit. Lies and propaganda are the primary tools for power seekers of all political persuations.

Greg

Thank you.

[beeatnik]

You aren't looking at the big picture. Distilling this down into subcategories is a foolish endeavor when the vast majority of the global population has yet to be vaccinated due to access issues.

That said, if you live in America and haven't had the vaccine yet you're more than likely a privileged jackoff.

Vaccinating the under 50 previously infected and children doesn't help those access issues.

[fastupslowdown]

Vaccinating the under 50 previously infected and children doesn't help those access issues.

There's some evidence that previous infections don't offer good protection against variants. -Mike g

[fastupslowdown]

Thank you.

I have to agree with fear. I just spoke to someone who won't get vaccinated . He's more afraid of the vaccine than the virus. A fear not remotely supported by facts

[Octave]

The promise of vaccination now is focused on the mitigation of infection severity, which is not a small thing - mortality risk is supposed to still be reduced. But doesn't the increase in "infectable" immune systems (within vaccinated + unvaccinated people) increase the possibility of future variants? Or is that the wrong way to think about it. My impression is that running the virus through the strainer of an immune system leaves the variants that can defeat those immunities. Or move faster/are more infectious.

Simply put, no. Variants are not more or less likely to occur based on an individual's vaccination status, as has been studied with other coronaviruses (and there is no indication that the fundamental principles of viral evolution have changed, here). On the contrary, total viral load is significantly decreased in vaccinated persons and thus there is an overall decrease in viral replication (which is the time-point/process step wherein mutations occur). Less total virus (due to neutralizing antibodies) = less replication = less opportunity for variants. Also, while asymptomatic, vaccinated carriers can still spread the virus via respiratory droplets, the decreased viral load coupled with decreased expulsion of the virus (e.g. not coughing) means there is less spread.

Breakthrough infections remain rare, but were/are not unexpected. After all, we are discussing vaccines with ~90% efficacy against severe symptomatic disease - this point seems to be lost on many people. The efficacy against infection of any sort is much lower, circa 65% depending on what data you are looking at (tracking varies by country and randomized testing of the whole population would be the only real way to discern this). Both of those numbers need to be flipped on their heads to translate this better: most of the current vaccine crop leave an individual with a ~10% likelihood of developing severe disease and a ~35% likelihood of infection given an effective viral dosage/exposure.

[SlowPokePete]

Interestingly enough the poll results show 15% of us not getting the vaccine.

SPP

[beeatnik]

Breakthrough infections remain rare, but were/are not unexpected. After all, we are discussing vaccines with ~90% efficacy against severe symptomatic disease - this point seems to be lost on many people. The efficacy against infection of any sort is much lower, circa 65% depending on what data you are looking at (tracking varies by country and randomized testing of the whole population would be the only real way to discern this). Both of those numbers need to be flipped on their heads to translate this better: most of the current vaccine crop leave an individual with a ~10% likelihood of developing severe disease and a ~35% likelihood of infection given an effective viral dosage/exposure.

How do we define rare at this point in a pandemic where antibody positive individuals are the vast majority of the population in many countries? Would 25k to 50K (and this is just a sequenced sample) breakthrough UK infections in the fully vaccinated be considered rare? In Israel 80% of current cases are in the vaccinated; that's 16000 cases in the last week. These are numbers their governments are reporting. And I understand that as the proportion of the vaccinated increases, their cases increase. What I'm curious about is a baseline level of transmission. What's considered low at this point? What will be considered low in the winter.

[Octave]

How do we define rare at this point in a pandemic where antibody positive individuals are the vast majority of the population in many countries? Would 25k to 50K (and this is just a sequenced sample) breakthrough UK infections in the fully vaccinated be considered rare? In Israel 90% of current cases are in the vaccinated; that's 18000 cases in the last week. These are numbers their governments are reporting. And I understand that as the proportion of the vaccinated increases, their cases increase. What I'm curious about is a baseline level of transmission. What's considered low at this point? What will be considered low in the winter.

Israel has vaccinated 59.51% of their population. Total new cases today are 2,968. In January, total cases peaked at 11,934. How do we define "rare"? This is a good question to which I do not have a clear or definitive answer, but I'll offer this: Data from last week published in NEJM (DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2109072, peer-reviewed) followed healthcare workers in Israel and found that, while there was a 2.6% rate of breakthrough infection rate, the source of these infections was from unvaccinated individuals in the first place (i.e. it was not a vaccinated person to vaccinated person transmission chain). This just underscores the pattern here - unvaccinated people are infecting eachother and the vaccinated. Again, vaccinated people remain vulnerable to some degree but are, as far as the data I have found are concerned, very rarely the source of transmission.

As the authors note

no secondary infections were traced back to any of the breakthrough cases, which supports the inference that these workers were less contagious than unvaccinated persons, as has been reported previously

Their sources for that previous reporting are as follows
Decreased infectivity following BNT162b2 vaccination: A prospective cohort study in Israel

Initial real world evidence for lower viral load of individuals who have been vaccinated by BNT162b2

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Risk to Household and Family Contacts by Vaccinated Healthcare Workers

Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: an observational study in healthcare workers and their households

[Todd Amunrud]

How do we define rare at this point in a pandemic where antibody positive individuals are the vast majority of the population in many countries? Would 25k to 50K (and this is just a sequenced sample) breakthrough UK infections in the fully vaccinated be considered rare? In Israel 80% of current cases are in the vaccinated; that's 16000 cases in the last week. These are numbers their governments are reporting. And I understand that as the proportion of the vaccinated increases, their cases increase. What I'm curious about is a baseline level of transmission. What's considered low at this point? What will be considered low in the winter.

There’s also this from the AP in terms of Israel’s COVID experience(granted it is a couple of weeks old, dated July 22nd).

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-644288348135