The Vaccine Thread

[beeatnik]

Another question: If vaccination rates are for the people who reside there, how do they apply to a place like Miami that has a very significant transient/tourist population?

Would Miami and Vegas be more apples to apples?

vegascovidz.jpg

We're placing a lot of weight on external factors (tourism and nightlife) and discounting local variables including seasonality and humidity.

Peripherally related...TH, how can the average person makes sense of the messaging below?

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...09411267690500

dingl.jpg

[j44ke]

T... Wife and I got tested this afternoon because she fears she has a "breakthrough" infection; she's symptomatic and spent the whole day in bed...

Hope you and your wife are doing okay.

[beeatnik]

Hope you and your wife are doing okay.

Thanks, J. She has hardly improved and she's stubborn. She isn't interested in calling her doctor at this point. This situation personally illustrates the pitfalls of the Pandemic of Facile Extrapolation. We live in LA. We haven't had people over in weeks. We haven't been to a restaurant in weeks. Half our town wears masks outdoors. Masking indoors is mandated in our county. Wife wears her mask at the office and understands the risk of aerosol transmission in restrooms. She may not have Covid but she definitely has a viral infection. I mean, what more can you do?

[thollandpe]

Also, TH, how can the average person makes sense of the messaging below?

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/statu...09411267690500

I think the video on that Twitter post does a fantastic job of visualizing of mask leakage. Anybody who has had a respirator fit test (and been asked to trim or remove facial hair to pass) knows the drill. And anybody wearing glasses knows how important the nose bridge seal is.

Personally I like the 3M Aura mask, which is terrific for a few reasons:

• Nose bridge seals tightly and is comfortable (foam)
• Chin flap, combined with the nose bridge, keeps mask in place while talking
• Two elastic straps behind the head spare the backs of your ears
• N95

https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/p/d/v101146024/



That procedure may be a tad overkill for going into public spaces, but hey. Cut corners as you see fit if you don't think a little overkill is warranted.


PS I'm not going to waste my time on that youtube video, "Why Masks Don't Work" is either a trashy headline or it's straight-up misinformation. Masks work, it's just that some work better than others and it might take a little effort to find a good one and get the fit right. Just like bicycles!

[AngryScientist]

Thanks, J. She has hardly improved and she's stubborn. She isn't interested in calling her doctor at this point. This situation personally illustrates the pitfalls of the Pandemic of Facile Extrapolation. We live in LA. We haven't had people over in weeks. We haven't been to a restaurant in weeks. Half our town wears masks outdoors. Masking indoors is mandated in our county. Wife wears her mask at the office and understands the risk of aerosol transmission in restrooms. She may not have Covid but she definitely has a viral infection. I mean, what more can you do?

I too hope your wife has a speedy recovery from whatever her body is dealing with.

I don't know her general state of health, but i think what you're doing is all you can do. why bother seeing a dr if the symptoms are mild enough to manage at home? either it's going to be covid, and the marching orders are stay home and manage the symptoms with OTC meds or it's not covid and the marching orders are stay home and manage the symptoms with OTC meds. i mean, pre-covid it was a wasted endeavor to see a dr if you had viral symptoms, they just tell you to go home take some advil and ride it out anyway, right?

[beeatnik]

Thanks, N.

She had cancer surgery last year so although based on her age and overall health, she's very low risk, therapeutics can still add a layer of peace of mind. Speaking of monoclonal antibodies here. Interestingly enough, this has been most popular article on Jerusalem Post for the last week:

https://www.jpost.com/health-science...-5-days-675961

[zachateseverything]

Two questions.

Should we be seeing case rates of 100 plus per 100k in an area where 70% of the total, not just over 12, population is vaccinated?

Can we continue to expect linear outcomes (end points) from an unexpectedly dynamic vaccine? Israel data does not align with the situation in the South.

first of all, 70% of the population isn't fully vaccinated. only slightly more than 60%.

second, the delta variant is both significantly more virulent which ups the % of the population to reach some kind of herd immunity and genetically different enough to make the vaccine less effective. how much less effective is still the subject of much debate. it makes a lot of sense that people living and working in much tighter confines would need to take additional precautions beyond just being vaccinated in order to avoid a higher infection rate.

think about it this way. let's say you were in a 20'x20' room with 30 other people and were given instructions to mill around carefully while completing a task. If you bumped into most people there was no issue, but 3 of the people were secret police. Each time you bumped into a cop you got a warning. 3 warnings and you're out and the penalty for being out is 20 pushups. In this carefully crafted BS scenario probably no one is doing pushups. Now let's bump the population up to 300 while maintaining the same ratio of cops and the size of the room. You're going to have more collisions just because of the change in population density. Those 9 cops are going to be issuing a lot more warnings and the percentage of the population doing pushups is going to be higher. We can even take this a step further. Let's say 60% of the population is "safe" meaning it takes 10 warnings to get the penalty. Because the number of collisions is higher you're going to see a higher percentage of the population doing pushups.

as it stands, the vaccines reduce your chance of catching Covid, reduce your chance of being hospitalized if you do catch Covid, reduce your chance of dying if you are hospitalized, are readily available (in the USA), and don't cost you anything out of pocket. everyone should be encouraging their friends and family to get the shot.

but what exactly is your thesis here? you're all over the place.

[beeatnik]

First off, let's agree on terms, do you trust Covid ActNow's numbers? They report a first dose vaccination rate for one region, Miami- 71%, which is 77% higher than another, Mohave- 39.7%. We can argue semantics but the bigger point is Miami doesn't have a low vaccination rate. According to Covid ActNow, Boston has a 69.4% rate. Boston may have a higher two dose vaccination rate but that may reflect a number of variables which at the current moment don't impact population level protection, ie, a recent increase of younger persons being vaccinated in Miami.

Thesis? No thesis. Only a question, when is bad news Bad News to some people?

Deaths and hospitalizations are rising in Israel. UK has the same fatality rate per 1M as the US. But you believe things would be better if we had universal vaccination, correct?

My last Chicken Littleish link...I know, I know

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/go...es-8-12-676897

At last count, 579 people were in serious condition, an increase of more than 50 since Monday, the Health Ministry reported. About 6.2% of the people screened tested positive, it said.
The numbers were rolled out on the same day that researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem who have been advising the government released a report that predicted the country could have 150 to 250 COVID-19 deaths per week by the end of August.

Btw, breakthrough infections suck, even if you're not hospitalized. At least that's what I'm hearing from behind the bedroom door.

first of all, 70% of the population isn't fully vaccinated. only slightly more than 60%.

second, the delta variant is both significantly more virulent which ups the % of the population to reach some kind of herd immunity and genetically different enough to make the vaccine less effective. how much less effective is still the subject of much debate. it makes a lot of sense that people living and working in much tighter confines would need to take additional precautions beyond just being vaccinated in order to avoid a higher infection rate.

think about it this way. let's say you were in a 20'x20' room with 30 other people and were given instructions to mill around carefully while completing a task. If you bumped into most people there was no issue, but 3 of the people were secret police. Each time you bumped into a cop you got a warning. 3 warnings and you're out and the penalty for being out is 20 pushups. In this carefully crafted BS scenario probably no one is doing pushups. Now let's bump the population up to 300 while maintaining the same ratio of cops and the size of the room. You're going to have more collisions just because of the change in population density. Those 9 cops are going to be issuing a lot more warnings and the percentage of the population doing pushups is going to be higher. We can even take this a step further. Let's say 60% of the population is "safe" meaning it takes 10 warnings to get the penalty. Because the number of collisions is higher you're going to see a higher percentage of the population doing pushups.

as it stands, the vaccines reduce your chance of catching Covid, reduce your chance of being hospitalized if you do catch Covid, reduce your chance of dying if you are hospitalized, are readily available (in the USA), and don't cost you anything out of pocket. everyone should be encouraging their friends and family to get the shot.

but what exactly is your thesis here? you're all over the place.

[zetroc]

first of all, 70% of the population isn't fully vaccinated. only slightly more than 60%.

second, the delta variant is both significantly more virulent which ups the % of the population to reach some kind of herd immunity and genetically different enough to make the vaccine less effective. how much less effective is still the subject of much debate. it makes a lot of sense that people living and working in much tighter confines would need to take additional precautions beyond just being vaccinated in order to avoid a higher infection rate.

think about it this way. let's say you were in a 20'x20' room with 30 other people and were given instructions to mill around carefully while completing a task. If you bumped into most people there was no issue, but 3 of the people were secret police. Each time you bumped into a cop you got a warning. 3 warnings and you're out and the penalty for being out is 20 pushups. In this carefully crafted BS scenario probably no one is doing pushups. Now let's bump the population up to 300 while maintaining the same ratio of cops and the size of the room. You're going to have more collisions just because of the change in population density. Those 9 cops are going to be issuing a lot more warnings and the percentage of the population doing pushups is going to be higher. We can even take this a step further. Let's say 60% of the population is "safe" meaning it takes 10 warnings to get the penalty. Because the number of collisions is higher you're going to see a higher percentage of the population doing pushups.

as it stands, the vaccines reduce your chance of catching Covid, reduce your chance of being hospitalized if you do catch Covid, reduce your chance of dying if you are hospitalized, are readily available (in the USA), and don't cost you anything out of pocket. everyone should be encouraging their friends and family to get the shot.

but what exactly is your thesis here? you're all over the place.

There's no thesis, other than "throw data around, hope it gets misinterpreted, and imply that vaccination might be bad somehow." Please get vaccinated and encourage others to do likewise.

[beeatnik]

There's no thesis, other than "throw data around, hope it gets misinterpreted, and imply that vaccination might be bad somehow." Please get vaccinated and encourage others to do likewise.

Yo, Steve what kind of hermetic bubble should my wife order so she can avoid being reinfected in the winter (and losing 10 days of work again) after she gets her 2nd vaccination, I mean booster. I kid, man, I kid.

Throwing data around...hahaha.

[Too Tall]

Thanks, J. She has hardly improved and she's stubborn. She isn't interested in calling her doctor at this point. This situation personally illustrates the pitfalls of the Pandemic of Facile Extrapolation. We live in LA. We haven't had people over in weeks. We haven't been to a restaurant in weeks. Half our town wears masks outdoors. Masking indoors is mandated in our county. Wife wears her mask at the office and understands the risk of aerosol transmission in restrooms. She may not have Covid but she definitely has a viral infection. I mean, what more can you do?

Ugg, fingers crossed for you both. Get a pulse oximeter at least?

[zachateseverything]

First off, let's agree on terms, do you trust Covid ActNow's numbers? They report a first dose vaccination rate for one region, Miami- 71%, which is 77% higher than another, Mohave- 39.7%. We can argue semantics but the bigger point is Miami doesn't have a low vaccination rate. According to Covid ActNow, Boston has a 69.4% rate. Boston may have a higher two dose vaccination rate but that may reflect a number of variables which at the current moment don't impact population level protection, ie, a recent increase of younger persons being vaccinated in Miami.

Thesis? No thesis. Only a question, when is bad news Bad News to some people?

Deaths and hospitalizations are rising in Israel. UK has the same fatality rate per 1M as the US. But you believe things would be better if we had universal vaccination, correct?

My last Chicken Littleish link...I know, I know

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/go...es-8-12-676897

At last count, 579 people were in serious condition, an increase of more than 50 since Monday, the Health Ministry reported. About 6.2% of the people screened tested positive, it said.
The numbers were rolled out on the same day that researchers from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem who have been advising the government released a report that predicted the country could have 150 to 250 COVID-19 deaths per week by the end of August.

Btw, breakthrough infections suck, even if you're not hospitalized. At least that's what I'm hearing from behind the bedroom door.

I don't distrust them but I'm only looking at the fully vaccinated rate.

If you don't have a thesis what are you doing? Anyone can post random factoids but without a cogent argument that they're being used to support they might as well be non-sequiturs.

and I'm sure breakthrough infections do suck. if more of us are vaccinated, wear masks, and minimize social interactions we'll have less of them.

[beeatnik]

I don't distrust them but I'm only looking at the fully vaccinated rate.

If you don't have a thesis what are you doing? Anyone can post random factoids but without a cogent argument that they're being used to support they might as well be non-sequiturs.

and I'm sure breakthrough infections do suck. if more of us are vaccinated, wear masks, and minimize social interactions we'll have less of them.

Ok, here's my "thesis". Breakthrough infections are not rare. In many places, fully vaccinated individuals are being hospitalized at rates which are worse than the rates reported in the clinical trials and by the CDC. There's evidence they could get worse; there's evidence they may not. Here's some support.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...r-problem.html

In any case, it seems you don't comprehend my "thesis" because it doesn't counter your circular logic.

[bcm119]

Ok, here's my "thesis". Breakthrough infections are not rare. In many places, fully vaccinated individuals are being hospitalized at rates which are worse than the rates reported in the clinical trials and by the CDC. There's evidence they could get worse; there's evidence they may not. Here's some support.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...r-problem.html

In any case, it seems you don't comprehend my "thesis" because it doesn't counter your circular logic.

I think you're neglecting to account for the relationship between age and vaccination rates, compounded by the inverse relationship between age and severe covid outcomes.
https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

[j44ke]

I think you're neglecting to account for the relationship between age and vaccination rates, compounded by the inverse relationship between age and severe covid outcomes.
https://www.covid-datascience.com/po...are-vaccinated

I think that's why Biden ok'd boosters for vulnerable individuals first.

On breakthrough frequency:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/h...nfections.html

[bigbill]

I think that's why Biden ok'd boosters for vulnerable individuals first.

On breakthrough frequency:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/h...nfections.html

The elderly and vulnerable were first in line in January, they'll be at the 8-month point about now. I'm going to get my booster when my time comes, around Thanksgiving.

[zachateseverything]

Ok, here's my "thesis". Breakthrough infections are not rare. In many places, fully vaccinated individuals are being hospitalized at rates which are worse than the rates reported in the clinical trials and by the CDC. There's evidence they could get worse; there's evidence they may not. Here's some support.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021...r-problem.html

In any case, it seems you don't comprehend my "thesis" because it doesn't counter your circular logic.

First of all, did you read that article? Even the "bad" numbers indicated that a vaccinated individual is 5 times less likely to be infected by delta and 70 times less likely to be hospitalized. That's good considering that as I stated previously, delta is both more virulent and genetically different enough to evade some of the protection conferred by the vaccine. Long term, Covid vaccines are likely to be similar to the flu shot. It boosts both waning immunity and grants new immunity to new variants.

my logic isn't circular. you just hadn't posted a cogent argument. do you think there's anything we can do other than vaccinate, mask, and practice social distancing? or should we just pretend that this isn't an issue and embrace death?

[AngryScientist]

do you think there's anything we can do other than vaccinate, mask, and practice social distancing? or should we just pretend that this isn't an issue and embrace death?

I think beatnik is discussing the topic in good faith, and i dont think it's fair to throw out provocative yes/no statements like that with "embrace death" as one option.

Interestingly, I was talking with a flight attendant on United last week and United I believe is the first US carrier that is mandating all flight attendants be vaccinated.

I would say by observation that social distancing in the US is now 100% a dead concept. EWR was more crowded than i've ever seen it on a monday morning and again on friday afternoon, and the 777 i flew on had every single seat occupied for an honest 6 hour flight and likely 7 hours of seat time on the plane. you would have to be crazy to fly these days without the shot. Even though masks are mandated, there is enough eating and drinking going on that that's probably minimally effective.

[rwsaunders]

I reached out to my pulmonologist pal and he recommended a booster 8 months following the 2nd jab (if you can get one) and separating the flu shot interval by at least a week. He’s always recommended the flu shot for late September/early October in western PA. My go to guy for all things breathing and virus related, his career has mostly been focused on Cystic Fibrosis patients and he spends time in the infectious disease ward, unfortunately a lot more time there since Covid hit. “Wash your hands, wear a mask and get vaccinated”…he’s been preaching this to me since day one and I listen. Hats off to you folks in the healthcare world, especially for dealing with folks that don’t follow recommended health and safety protocol.

[zachateseverything]

I think beatnik is discussing the topic in good faith, and i dont think it's fair to throw out provocative yes/no statements like that with "embrace death" as one option.

Interestingly, I was talking with a flight attendant on United last week and United I believe is the first US carrier that is mandating all flight attendants be vaccinated.

I would say by observation that social distancing in the US is now 100% a dead concept. EWR was more crowded than i've ever seen it on a monday morning and again on friday afternoon, and the 777 i flew on had every single seat occupied for an honest 6 hour flight and likely 7 hours of seat time on the plane. you would have to be crazy to fly these days without the shot. Even though masks are mandated, there is enough eating and drinking going on that that's probably minimally effective.

I don't think they're engaging in good faith. The post I was responding to included what I perceived as a personal attack.