The Vaccine Thread

[zetroc]

^The data doesn't lack balance. The presentation may.

What about the presentation of the data do you think lacks balance? What are the sides, and which side do you think is favored over the other?

[beeatnik]

What about the presentation of the data do you think lacks balance? What are the sides, and which side do you think is favored over the other?

If you're actually interested I can follow up on PM and if you want analysis I can run the numbers by my ex-fiancee who has a PhD in public health from UCLA to preclude remedial analysis or however Spro characterized my presentations.

I will report that my interest in the data prevented disease in my sphere. Had I not been aware of the surge in breakthroughs I wouldn't have known that a runny nose is a common Delta symptom. If I hadn't known that my wife's early symptoms would have seemed harmless and instead of 2 secondary attacks there could have been multiple outbreaks. My wife as an LEO doesn't have the luxury of working from home and she interacts with many people daily, my daughter would likely have been asymptomatic and presented at her school, and I would have continued to ride bikes and hang out at coffee shops. Fortunately, the moment she mentioned her symptoms, we began to isolate, scheduled a PCR test and contacted all friends and family who may have been exposed (two fully vaccinated tested positive). One family member had dinner with us the evening symptoms arose and she was about to fly to Europe. Fortunately she was not infected.

[swt]

As effective as the vaccines are, they were designed in a pre-Delta-variant world. Delta is much more transmissible than the original virus, so there have been more instances of breakthrough cases.

For the mrna vaccines, the data seems to suggest that they are equally good at preventing both infection and disease for delta and pre-delta varints. For non mrna, this might not be the case. This topic has been discussed a bunch on Twiv recently, including in their discussion of the recent Lancet article about boosters.

Warning, actual science content:

[zetroc]

If you're actually interested I can follow up on PM and if you want analysis I can run the numbers by my ex-fiancee who has a PhD in public health from UCLA to preclude remedial analysis or however Spro characterized my presentations.

I will report that my interest in the data prevented disease in my sphere. Had I not been aware of the surge in breakthroughs I wouldn't have known that a runny nose is a common Delta symptom. If I hadn't known that my wife's early symptoms would have seemed harmless and instead of 2 secondary attacks there could have been multiple outbreaks. My wife as an LEO doesn't have the luxury of working from home and she interacts with many people daily, my daughter would likely have been asymptomatic and presented at her school, and I would have continued to ride bikes and hang out at coffee shops. Fortunately, the moment she mentioned her symptoms, we began to isolate, scheduled a PCR test and contacted all friends and family who may have been exposed (two fully vaccinated tested positive). One family member had dinner with us the evening symptoms arose and she was about to fly to Europe. Fortunately she was not infected.

I'm glad your sphere has resisted the spread of this terrible disease. Thank you for getting vaccinated and taking it so seriously.

[htwoopup]

Okay, general press…but back to the back to school/ vaccine discussion (if it is behind paywall, I think you can sign up and go free)….

https://www.economist.com/united-sta...nated-counties

[Will Neide]

If you're actually interested I can follow up on PM and if you want analysis I can run the numbers by my ex-fiancee who has a PhD in public health from UCLA to preclude remedial analysis or however Spro characterized my presentations.

I will report that my interest in the data prevented disease in my sphere. Had I not been aware of the surge in breakthroughs I wouldn't have known that a runny nose is a common Delta symptom. If I hadn't known that my wife's early symptoms would have seemed harmless and instead of 2 secondary attacks there could have been multiple outbreaks. My wife as an LEO doesn't have the luxury of working from home and she interacts with many people daily, my daughter would likely have been asymptomatic and presented at her school, and I would have continued to ride bikes and hang out at coffee shops. Fortunately, the moment she mentioned her symptoms, we began to isolate, scheduled a PCR test and contacted all friends and family who may have been exposed (two fully vaccinated tested positive). One family member had dinner with us the evening symptoms arose and she was about to fly to Europe. Fortunately she was not infected.

Are you trying to play devil's advocate, trolling, or other? You don't need LA county data to know that a runny nose is a common symptom of Covid (alpha, delta, or even any of the common coronavirus respiratory pathogens), vaccinated or not. It's on every employers screening questionnaire since this pandemic has started. Absolutely zero people need to know what the breakthrough percentage is to know that a runny nose is a symptom. I'm also not implying that a runny nose is diagnostic, but in the current state, it should give everyone pause.

On a related note, those who truly are anti-masking, anti-vax, pro-conspiracy will twist the numbers every which way despite how simple and logical they may appear. I know this from family experience. What I would consider completely benign data, and the collection of such data, is completely lost of those who believe in fringe conspiracies.

[spopepro]

The article is about low vax rate counties. Here’s the story* from one highly vaccinated county. Note, this is my office (on the education side): https://sanmateocounty.legistar.com/...4-F576ADD4EFCA

For the high points: our county is 92.7% with at least one dose for everyone 12 and up. But specifically we are looking at getting every major group to above 80%. The slides include descriptions of how we have listened to community voice and have a tailored approach to reaching everyone on their terms.

We opened our first school campuses in October of 2020. This year we have had 95% of our students on campus, in person. We have had zero cases traced to spread at schools. Not statistical zero. Actual zero. County-wide we are Reff of .85 as of last week. No community spread. For all the rhetorical questions, and feigned interest in historically disadvantaged groups, this is how it works. And lo, it does.



*even with 90,000 students and around 750,000 residents, this isn’t data.

[beeatnik]

Fuck, man...ok, does he think I'm trolling?

If the UK Gov hasn't update its guidance:

Dr Gary Howsam, vice-chair of the Royal College of GPs

We are starting to see a major resurgence of illnesses like common colds, flu and stomach bugs, alongside the Covid-19 virus in the community

Symptoms of Covid-19 can often be similar to symptoms of other illnesses such as the common cold.

So it’s important that if a patient does experience symptoms of Covid-19, such as a high temperature, a new continuous cough, or a loss or change to sense of smell or taste that they get a PCR test immediately,


Please watch 2 minutes of this from 11:05



Fully vaccinated top 5 Delta symptoms:

1. Runny Nose
2. Headache
3. Sneezing
4. Sore throat
5. Anosmia

Anyway, there were other factors that pointed to Covid, but awareness of the rise of "breakthrough" cases was the determining one...but you knew that's what I meant. Who's trolling whom?

Anyhoo, appreciate the ad hominem. Say hello to my fellow Neide Truthers. Tell them I'll be on 4Chan at midnight!

Are you trying to play devil's advocate, trolling, or other? You don't need LA county data to know that a runny nose is a common symptom of Covid (alpha, delta, or even any of the common coronavirus respiratory pathogens), vaccinated or not. It's on every employers screening questionnaire since this pandemic has started. Absolutely zero people need to know what the breakthrough percentage is to know that a runny nose is a symptom. I'm also not implying that a runny nose is diagnostic, but in the current state, it should give everyone pause.

On a related note, those who truly are anti-masking, anti-vax, pro-conspiracy will twist the numbers every which way despite how simple and logical they may appear. I know this from family experience. What I would consider completely benign data, and the collection of such data, is completely lost of those who believe in fringe conspiracies.

[Scott G.]

[snip]
What boggles my mind is how easily people accept side effects and mediocre efficacy rates for drugs they're willingly taking for minor issue[snip]

You've spotted the difference, the vaccine lacks the beautiful people lifestyle adverts, walking on the beach, soothing music playing
in the background. Maybe an advert featuring jumping pickup trucks in the sunset, flags flying with Lee Greenwood playing ?
"Take Patrivax and defeat the socialist virus today"

[classtimesailer]

Is this guy an antivaxer?
https://www.piratewires.com/p/the-crime-of-curiosity
Josiah Zayner is an interesting fellow.

[zachateseverything]

Is this guy an antivaxer?
https://www.piratewires.com/p/the-crime-of-curiosity
Josiah Zayner is an interesting fellow.

He's not anti-vaccine so much as he's pushing a somewhat batshit concept. Untrained people shouldn't be conducting doing bio engineering experiments on themselves.

[beeatnik]

Is this guy an antivaxer?
https://www.piratewires.com/p/the-crime-of-curiosity
Josiah Zayner is an interesting fellow.

That reminds me of this:

https://mobile.twitter.com/pricklyre...83889423511555

I'm not making this up: In Hong Kong in 2008, Ralph told me that he wasn't much worried about himself or his lab in the event of coronavirus pandemic since he was pretty sure how to make and auto administer a vaccine.

https://uncnews.unc.edu/2021/06/22/coronavirus-vaccine/

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – Scientists at the University of North Carolina Gillings School of Global Public Health have developed a vaccine that could be effective against COVID-19, its variants — and a future coronavirus pandemic.

While no one knows which virus may cause the next outbreak, coronaviruses remain a threat after causing the SARS outbreak in 2003 and the global COVID-19 pandemic.

According to a study published June 22 in Science, the vaccine designed at UNC-Chapel Hill protected mice from the current SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, plus a group of coronaviruses known to make the jump from animals to humans.

The lead study authors are David R. Martinez, a postdoctoral researcher at UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health and a Hanna H. Gray Fellow at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and Ralph Baric, an epidemiologist at UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health and professor of immunology and microbiology at the UNC School of Medicine, whose research has led to new therapies to fight emerging infectious diseases.

[bigbill]

My former co-worker's brother died after almost three weeks on a ventilator. Not only was it tragic to lose him, but now the family will be financially burdened with co-pays and a funeral. He was unvaccinated and was pretty militant about it. The family has been pleading to everyone to get vaccinated for the last two weeks. I hope his death motivates some stubborn folks to get vaccinated.

[takashi]

My former co-worker's brother died after almost three weeks on a ventilator. Not only was it tragic to lose him, but now the family will be financially burdened with co-pays and a funeral. He was unvaccinated and was pretty militant about it. The family has been pleading to everyone to get vaccinated for the last two weeks. I hope his death motivates some stubborn folks to get vaccinated.

Yes, but he died doing what he love tho.

[Chik]

What boggles my mind is how easily people accept side effects and mediocre efficacy rates for drugs they're willingly taking for minor issues (antidepressants, anxiolytics, BP regulators, painkillers, statins...etc.) while eschewing a quite safe and surprisingly efficacious drug to protect them from a virus with substantial consequences. I have a neighbor who takes a moderately efficacious BP-regulating drug with significant side-effects but refuses the vaccine for the reasons stated quite commonly: fear of side effects and not being a fool-proof, 100%, no-fail cure. But people with give themselves weeks of diarrhea taking ivermectin with zero proven efficacy? At this point I'm a full supporter of medical triage for the willingly unvaccinated.

BUCKING FRILLIANT!

Bravo.

[fastupslowdown]

Article that finally explained to me in a way I got, why some vaccines last a life time while others don't. Great primer. WSJ continues to do some very good writing even in the Murdoch era -Mike G

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-va...nt-11631266201

[echappist]

Article that finally explained to me in a way I got, why some vaccines last a life time while others don't. Great primer. WSJ continues to do some very good writing even in the Murdoch era -Mike G

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-va...nt-11631266201

Its news reporting continues to excel, in particularly business news reporting (e.g. it was a WSJ staff reporter who first wrote about the whole sordid Theranos fraud). Same can't be said of its editorial department.

[spopepro]

Its news reporting continues to excel, in particularly business news reporting (e.g. it was a WSJ staff reporter who first wrote about the whole sordid Theranos fraud). Same can't be said of its editorial department.

Which is exactly how Murdoch operates. I’ve said it here before, but as much as can be separated, the “news” arm of Fox News rates well and relatively neutral. The dangerous thing is the complete destruction of lines between news, opinion, and entertainment to the point where people can’t tell the difference. The WSJ is on its way… but it is more difficult with a savvier readers. But I am 100% convinced the end goal is the same.

[fastupslowdown]

Which is exactly how Murdoch operates. I’ve said it here before, but as much as can be separated, the “news” arm of Fox News rates well and relatively neutral. The dangerous thing is the complete destruction of lines between news, opinion, and entertainment to the point where people can’t tell the difference. The WSJ is on its way… but it is more difficult with a savvier readers. But I am 100% convinced the end goal is the same.

I rarely read any papers editorials. It's not why I open a paper. So if they can continue to compartmentalize that's a positive. Unfortunately there are many ways to editorialize news if one wishes. One doesn't have to make up facts, one can emphasize articles or decide to cover or not cover a story or angle but i digress

[Octave]

It's an interesting dynamic which leads me to wonder about past perceived trends of overmedication. Americans love their meds or at least they did, right?

Americans love voluntary lifestyle meds. I've lost count of the amount of people I know who have been given propositions by their doctors to either make a lifestyle change (stop eating X) or go a pharmaceutical route (continue eating X, starting taking drug Y) and chose the latter. I mean, skin disorders, diabetes, cholesterol, poor sleep, anxiety, back pain... all of the common-man maladies of the modern era have behavioral roots to some degree, but a pill is easier. I think if many people were more honest with themselves about their resistance to the COVID vaccine they would acknowledge that it has more to do with fear of the unknown and resistance against a compulsory/coerced obligation than with any of the data that they nitpick or the side-effects they portend to fear.

You mention triage for the unvaccinated (and by this you mean back of the line, correct?). If this became standard practice, how much would the needle move. An unvaccinated "healthy" 25 year old may gladly take his chances while on the other hand an unvaccinated 55 year old has more to lose, financially and healthwise. It's a confounding (hehe) paradox. Convince (or compel) one person, the 25 year old, to change his behavior (ideology) for society's benefit and convince the other, the 55 year old, to do it for his personal gain or protection.

In our current healthcare system, yes, I believe that those who choose to remain unvaccinated should go to the back of the line in healthcare settings. That being said, I don't believe in any form of socialized healthcare (even the quasi-free-market healthcare system of the US) so in my ideal world those people would be participating in a direct contract form of healthcare in which they could choose a provider who aligns with their moral/ethical stance and pay accordingly.

You point to a really interesting conundrum here which, to be honest, could hardly be better designed as a thought experiment: with the advent of a highly effective vaccine against severe disease that appears to be mildly if at all impactful on transmission, one can substantially reduce the personal risk without really budging the social risk to their community. Does that person have a moral obligation to continue best-practices (masking, social distance..etc.) in order to protect their community, despite their massively-reduced personal risk? Does the implied social contract force that individual to participate in protective behaviors for all, regardless of their accordance with that social contract?