The Vaccine Thread

[beeatnik]

There’s also this from the AP in terms of Israel’s COVID experience(granted it is a couple of weeks old, dated July 22nd).

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-644288348135

That AP fact check is disingenuous and it doesn't address my concerns. Which I guess I should state clearly. I think there are more breakthrough infections than expected, orders of magnitude more. I think that's not an issue for individuals under 50. If these rates of infection continue to rise due to variants or waning vaccine efficacy regardless of increasing vaccination rates, cases in the elderly or vulnerable will rise. If vaccination lowers the risk of hospitalization or death for the elderly by 500%, there's still the potential for 100k plus deaths. Shouldn't that be addressed in good faith?

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/co...-israel-675924

Any PhD's in biostatistics around here to put these numbers into context:

In the age group 50-50, unvaccinated patients still surpass vaccinated once, eleven compared to eight (plus one partially inoculated).

Among those who are in serious condition and over the age of 60, the balance shifts: there are more fully vaccinated patients who are in serious conditions than unvaccinated ones. However, some 91% of the relevant population – almost 1.6 million people – is fully immunized, with only 109,000 people not protected.

Looking at the data of how many patients Israel has per 100,000 people, it is clear that those who are not inoculated are still getting seriously ill much more than jabbed people.

In the 60-69 cohort, 27 vaccinated people were in serious condition as of Thursday, in addition to 18 non-vaccinated individuals and one person partially vaccinated. Looking at the numbers per 100,000 people, there are 26.8 patients who were not vaccinated, 9.5 who were partially vaccinated and only 4.1 who were vaccinated.

Among those 70-79, there were 57 fully vaccinated serious patients, three partially vaccinated, and 16 not vaccinated. This translates into 73.4 unvaccinated serious patients per 100,000 people, 52.2 partially vaccinated and 12.3 vaccinated.

In the 80-89 age group, there were 52 serious patients who were vaccinated, one partially vaccinated, and 12 not vaccinated. Considering data per 100,000 people, there are 105 unvaccinated serious patients, 25.7 partially vaccinated serious patients, and 25 vaccinated serious patients.

Among individuals over the age of 90, there were 18 people fully vaccinated, two partially vaccinated and two non-vaccinated. However, taking into consideration the numbers per 100,000 people, this means 60.3 unvaccinated serious patients per 100,000, 115.1 partially vaccinated serious patients and 38.8 vaccinated serious patients.


Octave, aren't a couple of those papers pre Delta?

So, let's talk scenarios. If it's true that seasonality, as suggested by Osterholm, plays an important role in transmission and spikes or surges are to be expected, greater in winter, at what point do we "decouple" vaccination rates from cases and outcomes. In other words, what's an acceptable baseline for all 3. If we can accept that the vaccines won't prevent all infections, hospitalizations or deaths, we can also conclude that there will be more breakthrough cases and deaths in the winter. Octave, are you suggesting that the only way to escape that trend is for 100% vaccination? A few weeks ago, there were a few calculations posted about Delta's R0 and how that raised the necessary herd immunity vaccination rate to above 100%

[Octave]

Octave, aren't a couple of those papers pre Delta?

Yes.

Octave, are you suggesting that the only way to escape that trend is for 100% vaccination? A few weeks ago, there were a few calculations posted about Delta's R0 and how that raised the necessary herd immunity vaccination rate to above 100%

I'm not suggesting anything, just presenting relevant data. If you want my interpretation of these data (which, again, is my full-time job) in layman's terms, as we are not in a tits-deep scientific arena here, it would be that, put simply, more vaccinations = less transmission. There have been vague suggestions that, because the vaccinated breakthrough cases of infection are more likely to be asymptomatic, that transmission might actually increase as infected individuals are less likely to be isolated and therefore present more opportunity for transmission. Those suggestions have not borne out to any degree in the data. Infection clusters initiated by unvaccinated persons still represent the vast, vast majority of instances. I am not aware of significant cluster data which originate and propagate entirely in vaccinated persons.

Regarding the herd immunity achievement, I do not believe (nor do most scientists working in this arena) that this is the goal anymore, nor has it been for a long time. Disease management is the goal, and a reduction in transmission and severity both serve this purpose without question.

I will not espouse my entire political viewpoint here but I do believe in individual liberty and I do not support gross public vaccine mandates. I do believe that private and/or individual entities have a right to do so. I do not believe there is a valid argument against the notion that increased vaccination rates will decrease disease spread and severity.

[Too Tall]

Yesterday was a bad day. I didn't sleep all night because of abdominal pain. I finally admitted I needed to go to the ER. I put my shot card in my pocket but was never asked for it. It seemed like covid was not a concern in the ER and that seemed to be a matter of testing. I had a bunch of tests including sonograms, CT, and all kinds of bloodwork. The final test was the nasal swab which was a first for me. It sucked but I was negative, but I was positive for an infected appendix. Now I'm watching the Olympics with ice packs on my belly over the three surgical incisions.

Other than everyone in masks, it seemed like a normal scene in an emergency room.

Quell bummer bub. Heal up so we can harass you properly ;)

On a related note. Last week talking with a very good friend who has moved out of the area it became apparent he and his wife did not get the poke. I stayed very even and just listened. At some point the conversation turned to "what do you think is the safest shot for us?".

They are getting the vax this week.

Thank dog.

Dunno that logic will always be a primary driver. Just because you "get it" does not mean that common sense is shared. Hang in there, keep talking.

BTW This long discussion is by far the best anyplace I read.

[jimcav]

I am having brain fog as I can't recall where I read it, but the latest thing I saw was that the transmission of virus among the vaccinated is 8-fold LESS than for the unvaccinated. This is some latest data that echoes the point made above by Octave. The data show less and shorter viral production/shedding for the vaccinated, to the extent that the infections are being driven predominantly by the unvaccinated. The vaccine thus far is still awesome at preventing severe illness, and it is too bad the messaging (TV media and other) didn't better educate the public on the difference in infection and illness, not to mention illness severity.

The communication to establish understanding and expectations can always improve. Today my wife has trying to educate someone who believes the COVID vaccine isn't a "real" vaccine because all "real" vaccines contain the actual disease. You know, the way the vaccines for tetanus, flu, pertussis, diphtheria, HPV, pneumococcus etc--all contain the actual disease (uh, they don't).

Let's all hope that newer variants that show resistance to antibodies (ie the vaccine and the immunity of prior infection won't protect against these types of variants), don't outcompete Delta to become the dominant strain.

[Todd Amunrud]

In my career, I estimate I’ve ordered over 30,000 vaccinations. I feel I’ve exhausted all my energy, education, and compassion trying to get families to vaccinate their children. I’ve seen too many vaccine preventable hospitalizations and deaths. I’ve had zero known concerning vaccination injuries. I’m kinda done trying to convince people.

[bironi]

In my career, I estimate I’ve ordered over 30,000 vaccinations. I feel I’ve exhausted all my energy, education, and compassion trying to get families to vaccinate their children. I’ve seen too many vaccine preventable hospitalizations and deaths. I’ve had zero known concerning vaccination injuries. I’m kinda done trying to convince people.

I get that.
And I know it sucks.
I'm just a civilian that reads quite a bit about this, and I regret that our states are not united.
By

[fastupslowdown]

Benjamin Franklin in his autobiography said:

“In 1736 I lost one of my sons, a fine boy of four years old, by the smallpox taken in the common way. I long regretted bitterly and still regret that I had not given it to him by inoculation. This I mention for the sake of the parents who omit that operation, on the supposition that they should never forgive themselves if a child died under it; my example showing that the regret may be the same either way, and that, therefore, the safer should be chosen.”

-Mike G

[Chik]

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[Too Tall]

In my career, I estimate I’ve ordered over 30,000 vaccinations. I feel I’ve exhausted all my energy, education, and compassion trying to get families to vaccinate their children. I’ve seen too many vaccine preventable hospitalizations and deaths. I’ve had zero known concerning vaccination injuries. I’m kinda done trying to convince people.

Vent here, we'll listen. Bad news for the naysayers good new for humanity. Stick to your principles, it matters. You matter.

[beeatnik]

56615E54-FA06-4879-98C2-EACD2561CC24.jpeg

https://people.com/home/genevieve-go...-covid-battle/

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http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/med...-dashboard.htmcensor3.jpg


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[zachateseverything]

I'll respectfully suggest that we stay away from these generalizations. I deal with COVID denial and vaccine refusal everyday. Most of the people who oppose vaccination are not privileged, but rather they have been influenced by politically and power motivated lies. At the root of their vaccine opposition is fear. They fear for their health, they fear losing their freedoms, and they fear the unknown. Sadly, politically and power motivated persons and groups (who want to keep or increase their privileges...) have weaponized this fear for their personal benefit. Lies and propaganda are the primary tools for power seekers of all political persuations.

Greg

there are many people in developing countries that don't have the option of turning down access to lifesaving medical advances.

[bcm119]

https://people.com/home/genevieve-go...-covid-battle/

people.jpg

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/med...-dashboard.htmcensor3.jpg


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Wait, People Magazine has outdated statistics?! That's it, I don't know who to trust anymore...

[beeatnik]

Wait, People Magazine has outdated statistics?! That's it, I don't know who to trust anymore...

You see outdated statistics in an Aug 3 article, while I see cases in the vaccinated increasing 40x since June, while cases in the unvaccinated (half the total population of LA County) increasing by a factor of 8. I'll admit I don't know what that trend represents but I wish there were more disclosure.

Also, People pays their writers!

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[jimcav]

your LA county table shows a similar approx 8x increase in the % of breakthrough cases among the vaccinated since June 1st (actually 8.6)? why are you saying 40x? Anyway, it would be possibly be more useful to trend the delta (change not variant) in breakthrough cases as proportion of (or relative to) the delta in total cases.

[ctak]

Any other users here had Covid, mild or otherwise, and recovered?

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/N...ws.aspx/309762

Former Stanford Prof shared this link, as well as another showing support for natural immunity: https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/...14856044756994

[beeatnik]

your LA county table shows a similar approx 8x increase in the % of breakthrough cases among the vaccinated since June 1st (actually 8.6)? why are you saying 40x? Anyway, it would be possibly be more useful to trend the delta (change not variant) in breakthrough cases as proportion of (or relative to) the delta in total cases.

18 daily cases in vaccinated in the first week of June. Currently that number is 718 (5000 cases reported in the week ending Aug 3).

[vertical_doug]

Any other users here had Covid, mild or otherwise, and recovered?

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/N...ws.aspx/309762

Former Stanford Prof shared this link, as well as another showing support for natural immunity: https://twitter.com/MartinKulldorff/...14856044756994

The issue here is in order to get 'natural immunity' , you first need to get infected. Previously, for the 893K Israeli who were infected and recovered, 6,516 did not and died. (roughly 0.72%).
So instead of vaccinating 5,193,000 Israeli, we decided to have a giant COVID party. This results in an additional 37,386 deaths. So the question is not whether natural immunity or vaccinated immunity is better, it is by vaccinating the people before they get COVID, do you prevent many unneccessary deaths?

In finance we call this a survivorship bias and it skews the results.

So the right question is of the 3000 vaccinated people who caught covid, did 21 die or less ? Of the 4,600 unvaccinated patients who caught COVID at the same time, did 33 die less or more? That's the ratio to compare.

[beeatnik]

The issue here is in order to get 'natural immunity' , you first need to get infected. Previously, for the 893K Israeli who were infected and recovered, 6,516 did not and died. (roughly 0.72%).
So instead of vaccinating 5,193,000 Israeli, we decided to have a giant COVID party. This results in an additional 37,386 deaths. So the question is not whether natural immunity or vaccinated immunity is better, it is by vaccinating the people before they get COVID, do you prevent many unneccessary deaths? The answer is yes....

The question, I believe, as asked is the following: if you were unfortunate enough to have been infected with Covid and you have a measurable immune response will your protection be more robust than a vaccinated person's in a similar cohort. This question has policy implications.

[vertical_doug]

The question, I believe, as asked is the following: if you were unfortunate enough to have been infected with Covid and you have a measurable immune response will your protection be more robust than a vaccinated person's in a similar cohort. This question has policy implications.

I don't see a policy implication. Please expand on the concept....

[beeatnik]

I don't see a policy implication. Please expand on the concept....

Studies on the robustness and length of natural immunity are open to interpretation. Both sides can cherrypick.

But there's more certainty in numbers. The major studies and reports from the Cleveland Clinic, Denmark, the UK and Israel report substantially lower rates of reinfection in the previously infected versus the fully vaccinated.

However, some studies show that one dose can boost natural immunity. The CDC in order to take a blanket approach, not unlike stimulus checks, encourages vaccination in the naturally immune in order to achieve that extra level of protection. The CDC has also decided to compare previously infected unvaccinated persons with previously infected vaccinated instead of those who were immune naive. This is the basic math: natural immunity provides 7x the protection against reinfection as vaccination. And vaccination in the naturally immune provides 2x the protection against reinfection versus natural immunity. Can we conclude that vaccination in the naturally immune is 14x more protective than vaccination alone. In other words, it acts as a booster.

If transmission and disease management are the issue, why devote precious resources or limit rights in the naturally immune. That's the policy issue.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...LSUuL0e11Smuqk

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....14.21260307v1

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...575-4/fulltext

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/...cid=mm7032e1_w