The Vaccine Thread

[jimcav]

In case additional data helps sway minds, esp. with more contagious and virulent Delta variant spreading, this new study shows that the vaccines do significantly reduce the viral load and days of being contagious if you are vaccinated, but still get infected. So not only are you personally far less likely to have a severe illness (need for hospital) if you are vaccinated, you are also much less likely to spread it to some one who can't or won't get vaccinated. in other words, break the chain of transmission, get vaccinated.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2107058

[dashDustin]

24hrs of the blahs and all is back to normal. Per her, "it's like yesterday didn't even happen".

So, wifey came down with something back in early June...right after getting back from Armed Forces Classic (well after getting her 2nd dose of Pfizer). Coughing, mild fever, general blahs. Went away just before we left for Tulsa Tough...came back immediately after. Went away....then came back, rinse and repeat. She sounds like my boss did in the early stages of his COVID. She doesn't typically get mildly sick...it's either full blown, knock-you-off-your-feet or nothing. I can't help but wonder if this is vaccine related. She's gotten 2 COVID tests, and both have come back negative. Has anyone else experienced lingering symptoms post-vax?

[bigbill]

Due to the increasing cases of the Delta variant, LA County is recommending that everyone, regardless of vaccination status, wear a mask indoors in public areas. We're 45 minutes from California, I could see us back in masks before the end of summer. Again, I think it will decimate the young and dumb, impacting the local and national economy. Free shots at work tomorrow, I hope the line is out the door.

[beeatnik]

In case additional data helps sway minds, esp. with more contagious and virulent Delta variant spreading, this new study shows that the vaccines do significantly reduce the viral load and days of being contagious if you are vaccinated, but still get infected. So not only are you personally far less likely to have a severe illness (need for hospital) if you are vaccinated, you are also much less likely to spread it to some one who can't or won't get vaccinated. in other words, break the chain of transmission, get vaccinated.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2107058

Jim, could you breakdown the paper; I'm reading from my phone. The conclusions were based on the viral load of 5 fully vaccinated breakthrough cases? Were they compared to the viral load of asymptomatic infections in the non-vaccinated group (156 total infections). This just sounds like was already know from the clinical trials:

Authorized mRNA vaccines were highly effective among working-age adults in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection when administered in real-world conditions, and the vaccines attenuated the viral RNA load, risk of febrile symptoms, and duration of illness among those who had breakthrough infection despite vaccination.

[Octave]

Meanwhile here in Oregon, like much of the country, we've taken a "dates over data" approach and ditched the previous milestone of 70% vaccinations amongst >16yo in the state and decided that July 1st was the date for a full drop of all mandates. I went to the feed store yesterday, which was normally around 75% masked even when the mandate was in effect, and found that I was the only person in there with a mask on. Meanwhile, our county is 55% vaccinated and our neighboring county is ~40%.

I'm vaccinated, as is my wife, and we don't really see other people often (read: at all), but 9-10% risk is still 9-10% risk...

I'll keep wearing a mask, glares or not.

[ides1056]

Just back from two months in California. Asked after a friend I wasn't able to see while there, and found his 14 year old son came down with myocarditis after his vaccination. 1 in 30K chance. Just shitty luck.

I persuaded two old friends to get their wills in order. My Aunt won't get vaccinated. The second has had 4 types of cancer and needs to get her ducks in a row. Both listened. Both got to work.

When I arrived May 12 Berkeley was totally masked, everywhere. When I left people were generally masked indoors, but more relaxed. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief. The year was very tough in CA. The fires, Covid, a dearth of snow and the wind coming from the wrong quarter. Hard times for outdoor people. Plus the hordes who fled LA to Mammoth and the like.

I left Petaluma Sunday 10am, driving over Ebbet's Pass so my son could see the Calavaras Big Trees. We stayed in Mono overnight at a friend's place. Got up at four and left at seven. Drove straight through, arriving MA yesterday at 10. Pretty cooked, but the time with Eamon was priceless.

[AngryScientist]

I'm vaccinated, as is my wife, and we don't really see other people often (read: at all), but 9-10% risk is still 9-10% risk...
.

What are you referring to with 9 - 10% risk here?

[thollandpe]

In case additional data helps sway minds, esp. with more contagious and virulent Delta variant spreading, this new study shows that the vaccines do significantly reduce the viral load and days of being contagious if you are vaccinated, but still get infected. So not only are you personally far less likely to have a severe illness (need for hospital) if you are vaccinated, you are also much less likely to spread it to some one who can't or won't get vaccinated. in other words, break the chain of transmission, get vaccinated.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2107058

Dear Veesalon brain trust, what do you think about getting an mRNA-based vaccine to boost the effectiveness of the DNA-based vaccine?

Wondering if “one and done” is not really done.

Reports of Some Getting Pfizer, Moderna ‘Boosters’ After J&J Vaccine Prompts Calls for More Guidance
With the delta variant poised to become the dominant strain in the U.S., some Johnson & Johnson recipients are taking an additional shot from Pfizer or Moderna in the hopes of boosting their protection. — U.S. News & World Report

[bigbill]

Dear Veesalon brain trust, what do you think about getting an mRNA-based vaccine to boost the effectiveness of the DNA-based vaccine?

Wondering if “one and done” is not really done.

Reports of Some Getting Pfizer, Moderna ‘Boosters’ After J&J Vaccine Prompts Calls for More Guidance
With the delta variant poised to become the dominant strain in the U.S., some Johnson & Johnson recipients are taking an additional shot from Pfizer or Moderna in the hopes of boosting their protection. — U.S. News & World Report

I got the Moderna, but my wife did J&J because she hates needles and doctors. I'm looking forward to see data on long term protection between the two vaccines. I would have done the J&J if it had been available locally when my age group came up. I did 27 years of military service, I've had so many vaccines including anthrax, smallpox, yellow fever, Hep B, etc, another booster probably won't kill me. I've had the flu shot for 35 consecutive years.

[Octave]

What are you referring to with 9 - 10% risk here?

The efficacy of commonly applied mRNA vaccines hovers around 90%. Everyone should, as an exercise, flip those efficacy numbers around and see how it feels. "90% effective at preventing severe disease" is equally "10% risk of developing severe disease*" Since there are very few accurate predictors of viral response (even inflammatory markers early in the course of disease are not great predictors, let alone circulating antibody values), there is not a good way to know if you are part of that 90% or part of that 10%. I'm not too interested in probing those waters...

*given equal conditions of viral exposure

[beeatnik]

The efficacy of commonly applied mRNA vaccines hovers around 90%. Everyone should, as an exercise, flip those efficacy numbers around and see how it feels. "90% effective at preventing severe disease" is equally "10% risk of developing severe disease*" Since there are very few accurate predictors of viral response (even inflammatory markers early in the course of disease are not great predictors, let alone circulating antibody values), there is not a good way to know if you are part of that 90% or part of that 10%. I'm not too interested in probing those waters...

*given equal conditions of viral exposure

Aren't obesity or higher BMI and age the two "predictors." In other words, if you're younger than 50, with a "healthy" BMI under 24 and vaccinated your odds of severe disease approach zero.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...089-9/fulltext


We found a significant positive linear association between increasing BMI and admission to ICU due to COVID-19, with significantly higher risk for every BMI unit increase. We found J-shaped associations between increasing BMI and hospital admission or death due to COVID-19, with increased risks for people with a BMI of 20 kg/m2 or less and approximately linear increases in risk for people with a BMI of more than 23 kg/m2 for admission to hospital, but the risk of death increased only in people with a BMI of more than 28 kg/m2. These outcomes were largely independent of other health conditions, including type 2 diabetes.


bmi.jpeg
The difference in modelled incidence rates between a BMI of 30, 35, or 40 and one of 23 is the attributable risk, interpreted as the number of additional cases/10,000 persons of severe COVID-19 in each age group at each BMI level. The attributable fraction is the difference in incidence between the exposed (people with BMI of 30, 35, or 40) and the unexposed (people with a BMI of 23) divided by the incidence in the exposed, and can be interpreted as the proportion of cases arising as a result of the exposure (BMI level). As an example, if we accept BMI has a causal association, 77% of the risk of needing hospitalisation for severe COVID-19 in people of 20-39 years with a BMI of 40 can be explained by BMI.

[Octave]

Aren't obesity or higher BMI and age the two "predictors." In other words, if you're younger than 50, with a BMI under 24 and vaccinated your odds of severe disease approach zero.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...089-9/fulltext


We found a significant positive linear association between increasing BMI and admission to ICU due to COVID-19, with significantly higher risk for every BMI unit increase. We found J-shaped associations between increasing BMI and hospital admission or death due to COVID-19, with increased risks for people with a BMI of 20 kg/m2 or less and approximately linear increases in risk for people with a BMI of more than 23 kg/m2 for admission to hospital, but the risk of death increased only in people with a BMI of more than 28 kg/m2. These outcomes were largely independent of other health conditions, including type 2 diabetes.

Yes, but what I was attempting to point out is that there are not quality and readily accessible predictors for vaccine responsiveness (i.e. did your vaccine dose provide you with sufficient immunity or not). There are indeed several quality predictors for severity of response to infection including age, BMI, pre-existing inflammatory and/or immune system complications...etc. Sorry if that distinction was unclear.

[beeatnik]

Yes, but what I was attempting to point out is that there are not quality and readily accessible predictors for vaccine responsiveness (i.e. did your vaccine dose provide you with sufficient immunity or not). There are indeed several quality predictors for severity of response to infection including age, BMI, pre-existing inflammatory and/or immune system complications...etc. Sorry if that distinction was unclear.

Got it.

[Octave]

Got it.

Are the predictors not available for mRNA vaccines or vaccines in general?

We have seen some data on the efficacy of vaccines predicted by responding antibody level but they are very preliminary and not exactly the kind of testing that can be done for the average person. See here, for example: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...528v1.full.pdf

For the mRNA vaccines we also know that age is somewhat predictive. For instance, Moderna shows 96% efficacy in 18-65 year olds, while it is ~86% effective for 65+. Viral vector adenovirus vaccines (e.g. J&J) are pretty much the same in those two groups (66.1 vs 66.2%).

[thollandpe]

Finally, Experts Break the Silence on J&J Boosters — NYT Opinion

“So as with many other aspects of this pandemic, people have to figure things out for themselves. Slavitt [an adviser to Biden’s pandemic response team] said one of his sons was vaccinated with Johnson & Johnson and is planning to get an mRNA booster. But, he adds, people who do the same should know they’re doing it at their own risk.”

[COVRTDESIGN]

I got the Moderna, but my wife did J&J because she hates needles and doctors. I'm looking forward to see data on long term protection between the two vaccines. I would have done the J&J if it had been available locally when my age group came up. I did 27 years of military service, I've had so many vaccines including anthrax, smallpox, yellow fever, Hep B, etc, another booster probably won't kill me. I've had the flu shot for 35 consecutive years.

Same here. 7 anthrax shots and the small pox shot. I was just fine with whatever vaccine that I was given at the VA.

[Mark Kelly]

Same here. 7 anthrax shots and the small pox shot. I was just fine with whatever vaccine that I was given at the VA.

Smallpox? Is this some kind of biowarfare prep thing?

[vertical_doug]

Smallpox? Is this some kind of biowarfare prep thing?

https://www.publichealth.va.gov/expo...edications.asp

yes.

The US also has a stockpile for the general population just in case.

[bigbill]

Smallpox? Is this some kind of biowarfare prep thing?

Everyone involved in Operation Iraqi Freedom got the smallpox vaccine before the invasion began. It actually kind of sucked for those of us who were vaccinated as children, we had to have twice as many pokes in our arms because of previous immunity.

[jimcav]

Everyone involved in Operation Iraqi Freedom got the smallpox vaccine before the invasion began. It actually kind of sucked for those of us who were vaccinated as children, we had to have twice as many pokes in our arms because of previous immunity.

I think maybe all AD MIL got it at some point?, although maybe it was just potential for OIF or assignment to NSW, but I didn't go to OIF and I got it, and had it as a kid