Vote who will win and.... (anonymous natch')

[jimcav]

As a born and bred Southerner... what about Georgia??? That’s unexpected as fuck for me-

look at the map of COVID deaths in GA. The clusters of the 8300 deaths are largest in the Atlanta & other metro areas. GA's last 30 days the average of COVID hospitalized has been 1300-1400 per day. How many didn't get to vote--no idea, but I've heard no news on this?

similar issue for the nearly 8k dead in Michigan, predominantly in the metro areas, with over 2k hospitalized currently. Potential late campaign rally clusters won't result in deaths for weeks, so at least those folks got to vote 1st.

[beeatnik]

I thought rowdy meant he was surprised by the likelihood that Georgia will go for Biden with 70% of mail in ballots. Also, the way in which Covid helped Trump is that it encouraged Republican turnout. And majority of these Republicans care more about the economy than Covid. So, Chessmaster Trump really benefited from the anti-lockdown, open-it-up rhetoric. Smart as a fox.

[htwoopup]

I thought rowdy meant he was surprised by the likelihood that Georgia will go for Biden with 70% of mail in ballots. Also, the way in which Covid helped Trump is that it encouraged Republican turnout. And majority of these Republicans care more about the economy than Covid. So, Chessmaster Trump really benefited from the anti-lockdown, open-it-up rhetoric. Smart as a fox.

Wasn't it James Carville, while working on Clinton's campaign, who said "It's the economy, stupid"?

It is oft forgotten that it is also about the healthcare in the Carville trilogy but I fear this country can only deal with a simple linear target at a time.

Some simple things never change in America.

[beeatnik]

Wasn't it James Carville, while working on Clinton's campaign, who said "It's the economy, stupid"?

Some things never change in America.

Also, never underestimate American racism. I haven't done the deep dive but I'm certain Nate and the rest will find that a majority of white Americans were very disturbed by the "civi unrest" in the spring. However, they did not articulate these fears honestly to pollsters. But then again in 2016, they didn't express how angry they were about "PC Culture."

[htwoopup]

Also, never underestimate American racism. I haven't done the deep dive but I'm certain Nate and the rest will find that a majority of white Americans were very disturbed by the "civi unrest" in the spring. However, they did not articulate these fears honestly to pollsters. But then again in 2016, they didn't express how angry they were about "PC Culture."

Agreed. I actually think that while the Harris selection was brilliant; it was brilliant for a part of the electorate. For a huge swath of the electorate who is very into a white patriarchy, she became a lightening rod for "against". Look at how Trump said and the crowd reacted to "she will never be our President" (or whatever the exact offensive quote was). That is perhaps the saddest part of all of this to me. But then again, when the framers framed not all men were created equal as some were 3/5's and women were totally left out of the phrase. As the article posted before from WaPo pointed out, the America that we now are forced to see is not what we liked to think it is when it comes to equality. You knew that. But now I hope everyone is forced to see it.

[rydesteel]

Whether or not Biden would pack the supreme court or change the size of the Court played a part in the House and Senate races I think. Mitch and several others were in the deep end until that started circulating.

[zachateseverything]

Whether or not Biden would pack the supreme court or change the size of the Court played a part in the House and Senate races I think. Mitch and several others were in the deep end until that started circulating.

I don't think it's quite that complicated. Trump did a better than expected job of turning out his base of supporters but still turned off a lot of moderate conservatives. I think of that group of people as people like my parents. My dad had voted GOP in every election up until 2016. He voted for Clinton. He isn't particularly conservative on social issues and doesn't go to church but he legitimately doesn't want to see divisive rhetoric or exploding federal deficits. People like my dad will cross the aisle to vote against Trump but they're not going to necessarily vote democrat down ballot.

If current projections hold Biden deserves a lot of credit for running a strong campaign. He was able to energize his base to turn out in huge numbers AND peel just enough support away from Trump to win. That's what it looks like will enable him to overcome a series of polling errors in several "swing" states.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the Georgia runoff(s?) when Trump isn't on the ballot.

[echappist]

I think Rep. Spanberger's (former intelligence analyst and former postal inspector) take on things may be cogent. From The Guardian

2020_1105_Graun_1.jpg

Like it or not, the U.S., like the UK, has traditionally been a center right nation with a libertarian streak. Some of us (even myself) would like to see the implementation of more progressive policies, but those policies never make it pass bill form without votes.

As for the "Defund the Police" movement, if one has to write a paragraph about how the actual aim is not the literal defunding of police but rather shifting of resources toward other goals, then one has truly lost the rhetoric plot and is just committing an unforced error; furthermore, such shoddy sloganeering centered around a self-made strawman is basically an invitation for a rhetorical pummeling from the opposition.

[randonneur]

Also, never underestimate American racism. I haven't done the deep dive but...

You're not wrong... Ran across this in my travels. (Source)

[HorsCat]

I've been saying for four plus years - and my saying this gets met with various degrees of incredulity and scorn - but I stand by it. The Trump phenomenon is best explained with one word. And that word is "racism."

[caleb]

I've been saying for four plus years - and my saying this gets met with various degrees of incredulity and scorn - but I stand by it. The Trump phenomenon is best explained with one word. And that word is "racism."

I don't think anyone denies rampant racism. But remember that Avenue Q song, "everyone's a little bit racist...?" Yet, we don't all end up as Trumpists. The racism and sexism may only be the frosting on the cupcake; it's what you see and taste, but it's not the thing itself.

The cupcake itself is downward mobility and all of the knock-on effects like depopulated, brain-drained towns; broken families; drug and alcohol abuse; poor health; the whole "deaths of despair" storyline. It's tough to overstate just how hopeless things feel for lots of people in rural America. If I stop in a random rural gas station around here, it seems palpable.

During the last recession, there was a legislative proposal to subsidize moving costs for people who wanted to relocate for new jobs. The Rs squashed it. The hopeless must be kept hopeless so that they can be mobilized with a few dog whistles. The dog whistles are only the most immediate cause, but there's a whole lot more priming them to a response.

[robin3mj]

LBJ’s observation in 1960 still holds for many in the modern day Republican Party, including the whole quote and apologies for the outdated word choice:

"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."

[jimcav]

I saw an interview with cast/producer of the Broadway version of To Kill a Mockingbird, and that was one of the central elements--the great sin was that a colored man could dare to have sympathy and pity for, and want to help, a white woman--because that implies his situation was better--an anathema to the whites

[bigbill]

I'm taking a short break from writing my MA capstone. I'm writing on the Lost Cause myth including Confederate monuments. Racism, what do we do now? We elected a black President, racism persisted, Trump was defeated, racism is unchanged. We elected an old white guy who has taken racist stances and made racist comments in the past, but was he any different than other politicians at the time? Biden declared he would pick a black female VP, will that change the nation's systemic racism? In the past decade, it seems like we want to pat ourselves on the back for choosing the right candidates, changing the background on our facebook profile, posting outrage at racism, but what have we really done? A friend told me he was raised to believe that there was no difference between white and black people, and he still feels that way. I really don't care how we feel as a nation, I want to know what we'll do. If you ask someone if they are racist, unless they're currently sporting a white robe and hood, they'll say no, but actions tell a different story.

Around 1870 when Robert E Lee died, the retelling of Southern history began in earnest. The South lost because the North waged open warfare, the South lost because Lee had imcompetent generals, the war wasn't about slavery, blacks were better off when they were slaves, slavery was going to end anyway, and the war was the fault of the North. To reinforce this false narrative, we erected Confederate monuments. If the event had a monument, it had to be true. We put monuments on courthouse lawns to reinforce Jim Crow. We segregated everything from trains to neighborhoods to schools. Entire generations were raised believing the lie, and not just in the South, it was in our textbooks. Anyway, I'm being preachy, we need to teach people the roots of racism and white supremacy or it will never make sense. Ryan A. Newsome wrote Cut in Stone: Confederate Monuments and Theological Disruption. My favorite quote from his work, "Better to confront such a past...than to wait for its resurgence."

[robin3mj]

The networks cut away from the donald, mid-deranged-rant tonight. Something the media should have done five years ago.

[Mark Kelly]

He really is sounding deranged.

Fortunately it looks like the final count will be 306 to 232 so the SCOTUS challenges won't do a thing in the end.

[BBB]

So, what happens next?

While it is slow, it would appear that Biden will tip over the 270 EC votes.

Does he ring Trump and formally ask him to concede or does he appear on stage in front of the media and claim victory and ask Trump to concede in front of the cameras?

Either way, Trump is unlikely to concede and will presumably bat on with the various legal actions (and with the curiosity factor of wanting votes to go ahead in one state when it suits and not in others when it does not).

Trump appears to have a couple of problems; one the notion of legal votes is a red herring as accepting votes by mail is common practice from what I understand, it is just simply heightened this year given Covid issues. Any state electoral official should be able to tell a Judge this in simple and clear terms. Second, the notion of vote fraud appears to be unsubstantiated and going to court without any evidence to support the "f" word is just hopeless. Third, unlike 2000 the whole race does not appear (at present) to hang on one state and a re-count in circumstances where the numbers were exceptionally close and necessitated a very laser like focus on the ballots themselves (hanging chads et al).

When it comes down to it, Trump is just irritated that the in person votes appear to favour him in the states in play, while the mail in votes are seeing a creaming. This is not evidence of fraud, rather evidence of a sore loser. Claiming victory when there isn't one or undermining the electoral process is just dumb.

[gregl]

When it comes down to it, Trump is just irritated that the in person votes appear to favour him in the states in play, while the mail in votes are seeing a creaming. This is not evidence of fraud, rather evidence of a sore loser. Claiming victory when there isn't one or undermining the electoral process is just dumb.

Not so much dumb as sociopathic and delusional. Logic doesn't apply to anything Trump related. His rise to political power coincided with multiple factors that have caused unrest within the American electorate. Racism, inequalities in wealth distribution, and a large portion of US citizens feeling abandoned by the two-party political system provided a fertile environment for Trumpism to flourish. We can only hope that someday he is reviled by history for the damage he has done to this country.

Greg

[Mabouya]

You're not wrong... Ran across this in my travels.

As a white male who happily voted for Biden, that is so, so embarrassing.

What the F is wrong with these people?

[holliscx]

While we're waiting for the vote dregs. On that note, we shouldn't have numbers changing, and worse we shouldn't have different media organizations "calling" states one way or the other. There ought to be a single body that determines when a state is final and then releases the outcome.