Vote who will win and.... (anonymous natch')

[htwoopup]

I remember a wiser elder in my family saying that the liberals and the conservatives in the US actually wanted the same result...opportunity for having a better life etc...but they just disagreed on how to get there. I have always believed that although perhaps that was naive.

I feel that now we don’t even agree on what the result we want is. It strikes me, and perhaps this is my slanted view on things, that it is about power for me and I don’t care if it means no or less chance of opportunity for you.

Or, is it like a wiser friend of mine said that the US is actually a feudal system disguised in a pseudo-democracy where the money/landed gentry types have the power and it has actually always been minority rule and what we are seeing now is just the normal natural end/ death throes of a feudal system?

[gregl]

I remember a wiser elder in my family saying that the liberals and the conservatives in the US actually wanted the same result...opportunity for having a better life etc...but they just disagreed on how to get there. I have always believed that although perhaps that was naive.

I feel that now we don’t even agree on what the result we want is. It strikes me, and perhaps this is my slanted view on things, that it is about power for me and I don’t care if it means no or less chance of opportunity for you.

Or, is it like a wiser friend of mine said that the US is actually a feudal system disguised in a pseudo-democracy where the money/landed gentry types have the power and it has actually always been minority rule and what we are seeing now is just the normal natural end/ death throes of a feudal system?

It's always been about power. Those who feel they've lost power over the past 50-60 years are angry at the established two-party system for leaving them behind. With the wealthy pulling the strings in the background, the angry mob has spoken in the past two elections. They want their power back (essentially white, male supremacy) and they do not care about anyone else. Diversity, the environment, and our relations with other countries be damned. Hence Trump as their messiah.

Regarding feudalism: we're actually worse than that. Our "great society" used straight-up slavery as a building block for our economy from the 1600s until the 1860s. After that, pseudo-feudalism took over. I really don't know how the end-game for the American experiment will play out. I've certainly lost my faith in my fellow Americans' abilities to make fair choices.

Greg

[echappist]

I remember a wiser elder in my family saying that the liberals and the conservatives in the US actually wanted the same result...opportunity for having a better life etc...but they just disagreed on how to get there. I have always believed that although perhaps that was naive.

I feel that now we don’t even agree on what the result we want is. It strikes me, and perhaps this is my slanted view on things, that it is about power for me and I don’t care if it means no or less chance of opportunity for you.

Or, is it like a wiser friend of mine said that the US is actually a feudal system disguised in a pseudo-democracy where the money/landed gentry types have the power and it has actually always been minority rule and what we are seeing now is just the normal natural end/ death throes of a feudal system?

I think that probably applies to most developed countries other than the UK and the U.S. Top of my head, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Japan are all governed by center-right parties.

People opposing the current GOP often bring up Chancellor Merkel as a foil to Mr. Trump, but at least some who tout Merkel as an exemplar in leadership forget that her CDU party is a center-right political party. It should be also noted that Ms. Merkel herself is not above the usual political intrigue, as she basically pulled one over her political mentor and sent him into retirement.

Having said that, I personally don't think there are much difference between a center-right government lead by the likes of Ms. Merkel (or Mr. Rutte of the Netherlands) vs. a government led by the modern-day Democrats (or Blairites). In fact, I would probably prefer a government ran by Ms. Merkel. At least Germany recognizes that not everyone could or should obtain a university degree and has a strong domestic industry base. In contrast, the U.S. has tried to hand-wave around the issue of off-shoring of production by saying that college education is the solution, except all that has really accomplished are 1) too many people who attempted to obtain a degree but didn't graduate and 2) too many people with college degrees but working in a position that doesn't require one, all the while both 1) and 2) are burdened by student debt.

Maybe the GOP never intended it this way, but all that offshoring started by the GOP business class is having a far longer lasting effect than it could have ever imagined. The immediate effect of moving production offshore or to states hostile to unions is increased profit to the bottom line, but the long-term effect is that the workers who lost jobs have to relocate, retrain, or work lower-paying service jobs. The retraining part is mostly a red herring, as attested by the retraining effort that was part of the NAFTA treaty. The relocation also mostly didn't happen, and those who did relocate ended up taking non-union positions. In effect, most who once held positions that paid a good living wage had to take on service jobs; furthermore, at a macro level, this weakened strength of unions. Now these former blue collar middle class workers and their children have seen their economic opportunities stunted and dwindling, and are flocking to the candidate who promise to "bring back the jobs". Never mind that this candidate cannot actually fulfill his promise, but the human psyche is ever hopeful (and frankly, I don't blame them for initially believing the hype). However, I do fault this group of voters for continuing the belief that the incumbent could do something, whereas reality has shown that he could do diddly about it, with Exhibit A being Carrier. From the WaPo:

While about 800 jobs that were slated to leave the Indianapolis plant stayed put, 632 others were eliminated along with an additional 738 from a second Carrier plant in Indiana that closed, according to company filings with state and federal officials. Company-wide, Carrier eliminated an additional 1,300 positions last year and David Gitlin, the chief executive, has vowed to be “brutally tenacious” in further reducing costs.

That article is a truly-sobering read, and I don't know if things could be changed. As I wrote Across the Hall four years ago (the day after the 2016 Election), Springsteen chronicled the deleterious effects of off-shoring almost forty years ago. Still no viable solution almost four decades since. As long as that deleterious effect is not effectively addressed, it's doubtful that the ~38% support for the ilks of Mr. Trump (specifically, a bombastic populist over-promising and under-delivering) will go away. Someone new will come in promising to bring the jobs back, but should s/he be elected, be capable of giving only a few cursory whacks at the problem, while unable to address the fundamental issue. The disenchanted will take those minute signs as indication of possible greater change and shower that someone new with adoration and support, and onward we go...

Maybe it's about time that Democrats come to the realization that college education per se is insufficient to provide middle-class lifestyle to the vast majority of the populace and do something about the offshoring and globalization issue. FWIW, I have no issues with offshoring to developed countries (e.g. Taiwan and South Korea), the issue is strictly related to offshoring to developing nations, and in particular P. R. China. What many probably aren't grasping is that the massive offshoring to P. R. China is the main reason for that country's increasing diplomatic clout, and that will become a geopolitical issue in the oncoming decades.

[Saab2000]

I think that probably applies to most developed countries other than the UK and the U.S. Top of my head, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Japan are all governed by center-right parties.

People opposing the current GOP often bring up Chancellor Merkel as a foil to Mr. Trump, but at least some who tout Merkel as an exemplar in leadership forget that her CDU party is a center-right political party. It should be also noted that Ms. Merkel herself is not above the usual political intrigue, as she basically pulled one over her political mentor and sent him into retirement.

Having said that, I personally don't think there are much difference between a center-right government lead by the likes of Ms. Merkel (or Mr. Rutte of the Netherlands) vs. a government led by the modern-day Democrats (or Blairites). In fact, I would probably prefer a government ran by Ms. Merkel. At least Germany recognizes that not everyone could or should obtain a university degree and has a strong domestic industry base. In contrast, the U.S. has tried to hand-wave around the issue of off-shoring of production by saying that college education is the solution, except all that has really accomplished are 1) too many people who attempted to obtain a degree but didn't graduate and 2) too many people with college degrees but working in a position that doesn't require one, all the while both 1) and 2) are burdened by student debt.

Maybe the GOP never intended it this way, but all that offshoring started by the GOP business class is having a far longer lasting effect than it could have ever imagined. The immediate effect of moving production offshore or to states hostile to unions is increased profit to the bottom line, but the long-term effect is that the workers who lost jobs have to relocate, retrain, or work lower-paying service jobs. The retraining part is mostly a red herring, as attested by the retraining effort that was part of the NAFTA treaty. The relocation also mostly didn't happen, and those who did relocate ended up taking non-union positions. In effect, most who once held positions that paid a good living wage had to take on service jobs; furthermore, at a macro level, this weakened strength of unions. Now these former blue collar middle class workers and their children have seen their economic opportunities stunted and dwindling, and are flocking to the candidate who promise to "bring back the jobs". Never mind that this candidate cannot actually fulfill his promise, but the human psyche is ever hopeful (and frankly, I don't blame them for initially believing the hype). However, I do fault this group of voters for continuing the belief that the incumbent could do something, whereas reality has shown that he could do diddly about it, with Exhibit A being Carrier. From the WaPo:



That article is a truly-sobering read, and I don't know if things could be changed. As I wrote Across the Hall four years ago (the day after the 2016 Election), Springsteen chronicled the deleterious effects of off-shoring almost forty years ago. Still no viable solution almost four decades since. As long as that deleterious effect is not effectively addressed, it's doubtful that the ~38% support for the ilks of Mr. Trump (specifically, a bombastic populist over-promising and under-delivering) will go away. Someone new will come in promising to bring the jobs back, but should s/he be elected, be capable of giving only a few cursory whacks at the problem, while unable to address the fundamental issue. The disenchanted will take those minute signs as indication of possible greater change and shower that someone new with adoration and support, and onward we go...

Maybe it's about time that Democrats come to the realization that college education per se is insufficient to provide middle-class lifestyle to the vast majority of the populace and do something about the offshoring and globalization issue. FWIW, I have no issues with offshoring to developed countries (e.g. Taiwan and South Korea), the issue is strictly related to offshoring to developing nations, and in particular P. R. China. What many probably aren't grasping is that the massive offshoring to P. R. China is the main reason for that country's increasing diplomatic clout, and that will become a geopolitical issue in the oncoming decades.

Center-right in Europe would be considered left-wing extremist in the US because of things that aren’t really questioned in much of Europe, like health care being more or less universal, reasonable public education, investment in infrastructure including public transportation.

It’s not possible to compare today’s GOP with center-right in most of Western Europe.

[Chik]

Yep. They're all "socialists" by US standards.

[echappist]

Center-right in Europe would be considered left-wing extremist in the US because of things that aren’t really questioned in much of Europe, like health care being more or less universal, reasonable public education, investment in infrastructure including public transportation.

It’s not possible to compare today’s GOP with center-right in most of Western Europe.

Yep. They're all "socialists" by US standards.

Bangs head; argh...........

I guess the U.S. equivalent of Continental Center-Right have been extinct for about thirty years. Sounds like the derisively named "RINOs" of yesteryears, many of whom ended up joining the Democrats (e.g. Arlen Specter of PA).

Although when we were visiting the Netherlands, we were somewhat surprised that there was no post office, apparently as a result of neo-liberal policies.

[Lionel]

Center-right in Europe would be considered left-wing extremist in the US because of things that aren’t really questioned in much of Europe, like health care being more or less universal, reasonable public education, investment in infrastructure including public transportation.

It’s not possible to compare today’s GOP with center-right in most of Western Europe.

That's correct.

[caleb]

When all is said and done.

[Mark Kelly]

One district in ME will be red so that's 270 Biden not 271.

One the other hand I see GA going blue and NC still in the "possibles".

[jimcav]

the U.S. has tried to hand-wave around the issue of off-shoring of production by saying that college education is the solution, except all that has really accomplished are 1) too many people who attempted to obtain a degree but didn't graduate and 2) too many people with college degrees but working in a position that doesn't require one, all the while both 1) and 2) are burdened by student debt.

I agree with your post, but the issue of education is so vexing. My oldest is 17. Since he was a toddler I've watched the "participation award" mindset unfold. I have two close friends who are teachers, and both really just give up arguing with parents who STRONGLY feel their kid earned a higher grade. At least in sports, there are eventually a clear indication of success and ability, with an actual win or loss record and/or competition for the limited team positions. Most parents I know gave up on the idea that 'johnny' has a sports career after high school, although I'm seeing a few too many going off to third tier schools as a "recruited athlete". Statistically, I don't know how successful such students will be, or if the cost of that education has any ROI.

Not everyone has the ability for college. There should be an acknowledgment and encouragement for alternate paths in life after high school.

I read an article not that long ago on the rapid progress in a robotic strawberry-picker. Folks need to stop listening to empty rhetoric about where jobs went and how they will return, and realize that production of THINGS is going to be increasingly done by THINGS, not people. The next COVID won't impact food supply as much, nor spread as easily, when robots do what immigrant workers now do.

In 5-6 years I will be making what I hope is my last decision on work and where to retire. I hope the USA has become a world leader in green technologies, with both the educated and the trained workforce to develop, produce, and service all that entails. I'm hoping to be able to make my current home solar powered and as carbon neutral as possible, or move to another area to accomplish the same within my financial resources. I do think that of the current candidates, Biden would foster goals and priorities that would advance that--so anxiously await the final outcome

[echappist]

One district in ME will be red so that's 270 Biden not 271.

One the other hand I see GA going blue and NC still in the "possibles".

I think that one district in Maine is offset by one district in Nebraska

[Saab2000]

I think Biden takes Arizona. He’s leading in Nevada but only by like 7500 votes. The other three states has him trailing. Still very nervous about the outcome here.

It will be interesting to see if the absentee and other early votes shift the balance in the other three states.

[dashDustin]

What an incredible turn of events. MI and WI flipping was never in my thought process. And last night was all about NC, GA, and PA. I never even heard mention of MI and WI.

[bironi]

If Biden takes Nevada and Arizona he's got 270.
Trump is trying to stop the counting in Pennsylvania.
And Georgia may still be in play.

[caleb]

One district in ME will be red so that's 270 Biden not 271.

One the other hand I see GA going blue and NC still in the "possibles".

You're right, I forgot about the one vote in Maine. The map is actually just 270, but that's sufficient.

[Saab2000]

If Biden takes Nevada and Arizona he's got 270.
Trump is trying to stop the counting in Pennsylvania.
And Georgia may still be in play.

I hope one of those three is in play. Not super optimistic.

[caleb]

What an incredible turn of events. MI and WI flipping was never in my thought process. And last night was all about NC, GA, and PA. I never even heard mention of MI and WI.

I haven't heard anything about the number of people from Chicagoland likely voting at their vacation homes/pandemic hideouts in northern Wisconsin. For example, look at Door County, which is that peninsula/archipelago on the east side of Wisconsin into Lake Michigan. In 2016, there were 16,610 votes cast in the county. In 2020, there were 19,796. Or, take Sawyer County which is a popular tourist area for people from Minneapolis to own second homes. In 2016, the major party vote total was 7471. In 2020, it was 10,377. Similar trends are evident in the three counties on the south shore of Lake Superior.

In some future world, someone will dig into the voter registration records to figure out if that's a genuine increase in turnout, or if it's a Covid-driven and likely temporary demographic shift. It doesn't seem far fetched to me that there could be 20k+ additional Democrats from out of state voting at their vacation homes this cycle.

[rowdyhillrambler]

As a born and bred Southerner... what about Georgia??? That’s unexpected as fuck for me-

[beeatnik]

As a born and bred Southerner... what about Georgia??? That’s unexpected as fuck for me-

Real Housewives of Atlanta
The Paris of the South
Those extra 30k "vacation home" Mexican-American Votes (wocka wocka)

[Mark Kelly]

I think that one district in Maine is offset by one district in Nebraska

That was already coloured in: red and blue on the map.