Concerning politics, not ideology, and what's going to happen in this election per the Edsall column linked a few pages ago, I think there's a pretty strong case to be made that the incumbent is going to win. I thought until Covid that the Donald was going to sail to victory. Then, I wasn't sure whatsoever: would the pandemic would serve as enough of a referendum? Looked like the Ds had some daylight. Now... I am back to thinking the R's are going to win again. I really don't think the D's have digested the lessons of 2016, from either a policy standpoint, or a political standpoint. Remember reading a few weeks ago how Biden had zero ground game in Michigan?

Meanwhile, Nate Silver has admitted that nothing has fundamentally changed with his model from 2016: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-of-covid-19/

The finance quants are "pricing" this election differently, even if markets are looking for a Biden win.

Meanwhile, the delta on voter reg. is an interesting angle, points to R victory: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jp...-biden-victory

And, if numeric wizardry isn't your thing, Trafalgar, the only pollster who called 2016 correctly maintains his survey methodology is more reliable because it is based on several pretty conservative (in the sense of moderate) judgments about human behavior when it comes to sussing out a reliable portrait of the electorate. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...tcome-november

Based on these guys, I am back to thinking there could yet be tears come November.