2020 Political Chatter

[climbgdh]

Because there is no recent precedent, most people assume it can't happen. The real issue is no one has tried in the modern era, and Trump is going to try.
You can think of it as a new pandemic. In Feb when everyone knew about COVID, because we never had a global pandemic in the modern era, the financials markets could not imagine it, and ignored it. Then presto- it happened and panic.

The democrats see the lawsuits as comical and with little chance of success. The lawsuits are classic Trump nuisance lawsuits and an abuse of a the system. The purpose is to just to delay/prevent certification until December 14th. At this point, no outcome from the vote, so no 'will of the people' therefore the State Legislatures can step in and nominate the delegates. (Actually this will happen 6 days prior) The process is then no longer a legal proceeding and becomes political. The state legislatures are republican dominated in these states.

The option may be just to gum up the electoral college enough, that the final vote goes to the house of representatives to decide. The problem here is each states gets one vote as representatives must vote as a bloc. Republicans hold 28 states even though the democrats hold a majority in representatives. At this point, Trump will win. The last time this happened was 1824.

Because Trump is a shameless individual, he would actually feel very proud to win like this because winning is the only result.

Is this far fetched, maybe, but this has been the doomsday scenario since early Spring when Trump began laying the ground work for discrediting the vote.

On a funny but sad note, I woke up this morning and turned on BBC news. I'm listening to a news report about disenfranchising millions of votes because of race, and other voting irregularities. I was wondering what Trump had done overnight now so started listening closely. The story was actually about how Aung San Suu Kyi had just stolen the election for another 5 years in Myanmar.

1. When Aung San Suu Kyi won the Noble all those years ago, who'd have thought she'd become a autocrat who steals elections?
2. You can confuse a news story on a third world corrupt nations election for an election in America?

This is eff’ed up!!! How realistic is this? Not that it matters to me.... since I don’t live in the US but if this happened I’d be (and probably millions of others) rioting in the streets. Please ...... this cannot happen. Fuck tDUMP.

[bcm119]

Because there is no recent precedent, most people assume it can't happen. The real issue is no one has tried in the modern era, and Trump is going to try.
You can think of it as a new pandemic. In Feb when everyone knew about COVID, because we never had a global pandemic in the modern era, the financials markets could not imagine it, and ignored it. Then presto- it happened and panic.

The democrats see the lawsuits as comical and with little chance of success. The lawsuits are classic Trump nuisance lawsuits and an abuse of a the system. The purpose is to just to delay/prevent certification until December 14th. At this point, no outcome from the vote, so no 'will of the people' therefore the State Legislatures can step in and nominate the delegates. (Actually this will happen 6 days prior) The process is then no longer a legal proceeding and becomes political. The state legislatures are republican dominated in these states.

The option may be just to gum up the electoral college enough, that the final vote goes to the house of representatives to decide. The problem here is each states gets one vote as representatives must vote as a bloc. Republicans hold 28 states even though the democrats hold a majority in representatives. At this point, Trump will win. The last time this happened was 1824.

Because Trump is a shameless individual, he would actually feel very proud to win like this because winning is the only result.

Is this far fetched, maybe, but this has been the doomsday scenario since early Spring when Trump began laying the ground work for discrediting the vote.

On a funny but sad note, I woke up this morning and turned on BBC news. I'm listening to a news report about disenfranchising millions of votes because of race, and other voting irregularities. I was wondering what Trump had done overnight now so started listening closely. The story was actually about how Aung San Suu Kyi had just stolen the election for another 5 years in Myanmar.

1. When Aung San Suu Kyi won the Noble all those years ago, who'd have thought she'd become a autocrat who steals elections?
2. You can confuse a news story on a third world corrupt nations election for an election in America?

This is the scenario Van Jones layed out in his Ted video a few weeks ago.

The biggest hurdle for Trump seems to be preventing states from certifying the vote if none of his lawsuits stick. If there's no evidence of fraud, why would a state delay certification? Is it really a subjective decision at risk of influence by a media narrative?

[Mark Kelly]

Because there is no recent precedent, most people assume it can't happen.

I'm not assuming it can't happen, I'm saying it won't this time because one of the pillars needed to support the edifice has crumbled.

2. You can confuse a news story on a third world corrupt nations election for an election in America?

You should read Patrick Gathara, a Kenyan journo commenting on the US election using the tropes common to western journalists commenting on 3rd world elections. It is hilarious and also a pointed reminder of how badly Trump has trashed US prestige abroad.

Australia is a bit different, our name for you lot is "Seppoes" or "Septics", from rhyming slang septic tank, the joke being it's because you are big and full of shit. Like the cricket stuff above, this has to be interpreted through the lens of local practice: if we didn't actually like you we wouldn't bother using an insulting nickname.

With Trump in power you were in danger of losing that.

[vertical_doug]

This is the scenario Van Jones layed out in his Ted video a few weeks ago.

The biggest hurdle for Trump seems to be preventing states from certifying the vote if none of his lawsuits stick. If there's no evidence of fraud, why would a state delay certification? Is it really a subjective decision at risk of influence by a media narrative?

You actually turn the legal process against itself. The judicial system is all about process. Process takes time. All they need to do is slow the system to delay certification since for the election you are working with hard deadlines.

That's why the move Bill Barr made to authorize investigating the 'election fraud' before certification is so outrageous. DOJ guidelines are for investigations to begin after certification.

This is definitely a low but non-zero probability. However, human history and financial markets are littered with fat tail events.

[vertical_doug]

I'm not assuming it can't happen, I'm saying it won't this time because one of the pillars needed to support the edifice has crumbled.

I will feel better when the Georgia recount is completed.

Gathara is pretty funny. Thanks for this.

[Mark Kelly]

I will feel better when the Georgia recount is completed.

You're not Robinson Crusoe there: much of the world will breathe a sigh of relief when it is shown that Trump doesn't have a leg to stand on.

[Loknor]

I'm not assuming it can't happen, I'm saying it won't this time because one of the pillars needed to support the edifice has crumbled.

I'd content he has lost the three pillars to steal the election:

1. He lost control of the messaging.
- Biden is confirmed as elect by the media. Murdoch does not run cover.
- Biden is confirmed by the allies/trade partners.
2. He is hammered in the courts.
- His control over the courts is smaller than people think. Indeed, the SCOTUS is so lopsided that Roberts is treading lightly because partisanship is a very bad opic for his legacy (and of the other court members). They certainly do not want to be seen as linchpin in a coup. => The conservative effect will be felt in the mid-long term, but not now.
3. The brute-force solution to overcome #1 and #2 is not in place, as is seen by the firing of Esper. I flat out reject the bizarre notion his replacement (a career officer) manages to cook up a military support for a coup when there''s intense scrutiny about what is going on.

It's still extremely damaging to the system and the support/faith in democracy, so it's not much of a relief. Focus on the real issues, not on the fear their will be tanks rolling through the streets to install god-emperor Trump.

[Tom]

That is the one thing that has me breathing at all - that as Karen put it, Biden's results are socialized. POTUS is increasingly seen as on an island. And I guess the Department of Homeland Security office in charge of election security issued a statement directly contradicting Trump's claims. Not to mention it looks like Arizona results are good for Biden... what has to be reversed just keeps getting bigger.

[Saab2000]

So what is the likelihood of this nightmare scenario? Various outlets are reporting that there are questions being asked at the highest level on how to make this happen.

The fact that Arizona appears to be called for Biden and Georgia likely will be as well make this less tight in the EC. But it appears that there is a non-zero chance that a workaround of the EC is being attempted. Why people display such bizarre loyalty to a single person is something I don't understand but tens of millions of people voted for him. Do these folks see some personal reward?

Anyway, even China has congratulated Biden. Internationally, there's very little interest in another Trump term. The fact that even this remote possibility exists is a blight on our democracy. This is not what the founders intended.

[Too Tall]

Cursing aside, I've always felt like this should be the minimum cost of entry to the political threads, this after all, being a bike message board...

Creative cursing welcome, it is a sign of intelligent thinking and replaces Marlboro cigs rolled in my sleeves.

Jorn has the call natch. Be prepared to do pushups.

Jim, the chances as of this morning are ZERO other skulleffery notwithstanding like burning down the house which remains legal.

[j44ke]

Here's one possible reason Trump can't leave the house.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...96e_story.html

[j44ke]

This is eff’ed up!!! How realistic is this? Not that it matters to me.... since I don’t live in the US but if this happened I’d be (and probably millions of others) rioting in the streets. Please ...... this cannot happen. Fuck tDUMP.

Alright - please create a thread or contribute (I'm making this easier) to a thread elsewhere on this forum that has to do with bicycles. We have to keep the karma boat floating.

[guido]

The Long-Term Damage of Trump’s Antidemocratic Lies | New Yorker

"Ten days after the election, Donald Trump is still skulking around the White House, claiming that he was cheated. This shouldn’t surprise anybody who watched him during the campaign. He repeatedly claimed that the vote would be fraudulent, and, at one point, he suggested that Election Day should be delayed. In October, Bright Line Watch, a monitoring organization that was set up in 2017 to monitor Trump’s threats to U.S. democracy, surveyed hundreds of political scientists about their expectations for the election and its aftermath. Many of the respondents predicted that Trump would declare victory early on, attack the “blue shift” caused by the late counting of mail-in votes, and refuse to concede.

That’s precisely what happened, of course. Trump has also empowered an army of lawyers to gin up accusations of voter fraud. Attorney General Bill Barr, breaking with Justice Department precedent, has ordered his underlings to investigate any allegations of irregularities that are “clear and apparently-credible.” As the vast majority of elected Republicans have failed to denounce these alarming developments, some commentators have gone so far as to suggest that Trump and his cronies are trying to stage a coup.

On Thursday, I spoke with Brendan Nyhan, a Dartmouth political scientist who was one of the founders of Bright Line Watch, and asked him whether he subscribed to the coup thesis. “I think that is wrong,” Nyhan said. “What I would emphasize is precisely what we have been talking about pretty much all the time: the concern is democratic erosion.” Democratic erosion isn’t something to be minimized or taken lightly. It refers to the gradual undermining of democratic norms and democratic institutions, which ultimately can prove fatal to democracy, and it’s something that Nyhan and other political scientists have been issuing warnings about since shortly after Trump was elected. “Democratic erosion happens in a slow and piecemeal process,” Nyhan said. “Joe Biden will almost certainly still be sworn in as President, but democratic erosion can still take place. . . . The peaceful transfer of power is the core of democracy.”

Writing in the Washington Post earlier this week, Erica De Bruin, a political scientist at Hamilton College who is the author of the book “How to Prevent Coups d’État,” made a similar argument. Although the measures that Trump and Republican officials have taken to undermine the election “are enormously damaging, they do not constitute a coup,” De Bruin writes. The real danger, she argues, is that Republicans “are violating the norms we rely on to ensure peaceful transfers of power, undermining trust in our electoral process and conveying to their supporters the poisonous notion that Democrats, as a rule, can never win power legitimately.”"

[j44ke]

From NYTimes on re-assigned electors by state legislators:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/elec...gtype=Homepage

[gregl]

“Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel”: Samuel Johnson, 1775. The rats are abandoning the sinking SS Trump. DJT is looking for his exit strategy. I predict that he will cower in the White House, tweeting his woes to his minions, until the election is certified. Then he’ll claim that, for the good of the country (being such a great patriot), he won’t challenge the election even though it was horribly rigged. He’ll slink back to private life and manage his new PAC - which will be nothing more than another sham organization funneling money to the Trump family. He’ll take potshots at every succeeding administration until he dies or loses his faculties. He’ll always have some following, but history won’t treat him kindly. Hopefully the country will fare better than despotic King Donald I.

Greg

[Colinmclelland]

“Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel”: Samuel Johnson, 1775. The rats are abandoning the sinking SS Trump. DJT is looking for his exit strategy. I predict that he will cower in the White House, tweeting his woes to his minions, until the election is certified. Then he’ll claim that, for the good of the country (being such a great patriot), he won’t challenge the election even though it was horribly rigged. He’ll slink back to private life and manage his new PAC - which will be nothing more than another sham organization funneling money to the Trump family. He’ll take potshots at every succeeding administration until he dies or loses his faculties. He’ll always have some following, but history won’t treat him kindly. Hopefully the country will fare better than despotic King Donald I.

Greg

From far away, it looks like that ship has sailed.

[bironi]

Anyone reminded of "The Thing That Wouldn't Leave", John Belushi on SNL?

[vertical_doug]

You guys are right, only a matter of time now. Trump's almost slip in the Vaccine update last night, is another tell. He knows, but is just grifting by raising 'vote count' funds.
Trump's Election Defense Fund donations are only going to the 'recount account' if they exceed $8,000. All smaller donations go to the RNC and 'Save America' which is a new PAC set up by Trump.

A leopard can't change its spots.

[Paul Jacobs]

I heard that too but I was also struck by the change in hair colour. Is he going to re-invent himself as a statesman?

[rwsaunders]

This song (excerpt) was sent to me by my youngest son as it was blasting from dorm rooms and apartments all over THE Ohio State University campus on Election Day.

I got a question
How'd he make it this far? How the fuck did it begin?
A Trump rally sounds like Hitler in Berlin
Or KKK shit, now I'm goin' in
I'm just sayin' what's real, I don't give a fuck who I offend
'Cause it's gotta be said, it's gotta be said
It's off the top like the toupee on Donald Trump's head
This man's not peaceful, racism's evil
This man hates Muslims, that's a billion fuckin' people
If truth be told, Donald is a terrorist
Reasons why the world's got a problem with Americans
The fuck is goin' on? People just passed
A mass murder happened, you said thanks for the congrats
You tryna get your votes up, you don't got class
Orlando was a tragedy, you react fast
And then made it 'bout you, to boost your campaign
It's goin' all bad if he wins this damn thing
Man America is fucked if he's next up
Take a day to undo what Obama fixed up
It's Young Gerald so you know who said it
And Ivanka can get it, straight up
Fuck Donald Trump
Fuck Donald Trump