2020 Political Chatter

[Saab2000]

By "investor class" I mean the titans of capital and industry who make the big $$, not the plebs who make out with the scraps. To quote Gordon Gekko: "I'm not talking a $400,000 a year working Wall Street stiff flying first class and being comfortable, I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time."

I get it. But most of us are investors and are banking on healthy markets.

[holliscx]

In many locales there are representatives from both the Republican and Democratic parties to observe, and in some cases where a ballot is unclear, validate, the counting of votes. While it's a great rallying cry for those who don't like a result, voter fraud isn't really a thing.

As long as humans are counting I think error and/or fraud is a real possibility. In my opinion Republicans and Democrats are part of the problem. I would rather see an independent party counting votes. Everyone isn't pigeonholed into those categories. It has nothing to do with liking a result but rather transparency. Are retirees hunkered down counting votes by hand in every state? I'm just trying to get a picture how this works and whether it's the same for every state. For recounts are ballots archived somewhere in a vault. Theoretically, could you compile the entire country's votes and do a manual recount?

Fwiw, my brother lives in Calgary and FedEx'd his vote to Montana. A woman emailed just to let him know she received his absentee ballot. He was surprised she took the time to write. I have no doubt there are great folks working the polls but I wouldn't hesitate to think the opposite is true too.

[ColonelJLloyd]

As long as humans are counting I think error and/or fraud is a real possibility. In my opinion Republicans and Democrats are part of the problem. I would rather see an independent party counting votes. Everyone isn't pigeonholed into those categories. It has nothing to do with liking a result but rather transparency. Are retirees hunkered down counting votes by hand in every state? I'm just trying to get a picture how this works and whether it's the same for every state. For recounts are ballots archived somewhere in a vault. Theoretically, could you compile the entire country's votes and do a manual recount?

Fwiw, my brother lives in Calgary and FedEx'd his vote to Montana. A woman emailed just to let him know she received his absentee ballot. He was surprised she took the time to write. I have no doubt there are great folks working the polls but I wouldn't hesitate to think the opposite is true too.

There is a lot of info out there and each state conducts things their way. You might start by visiting the secretary of state or board of elections site for states in which you're interested.

Not sure where you envision these truly independent parties coming from.

Having served on a few juries and as an election officer this past Tuesday I can attest that, in my experience, people overwhelmingly rise to the occasion and are proud to perform their civic duty in a fair and respectable manner.

[htwoopup]

I get it. But most of us are investors and are banking on healthy markets.

Jim-totally agree with you. However, there is another side (actually 2) to it which gives me pause. And it is unfortunately a pun on the "health" of markets.

About 70% of Americans have less than 1000 bucks in savings (https://www.gobankingrates.com/savin...00-in-savings/).

The other side is (and I am not an expert here so it is surmising)...when I looked at a chart on what is happening in the market this morning, it seems that health insurance company stocks are doing remarkably well. One could surmise that is because with a Democratic President and a Republican Senate business reform will not get done and certainly health insurance would not get revised. But, there is a good chance that the Affordable Care Act will be thrown out as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court very soon. So, on the one hand my pension plan is getting better but on the other hand there are a lot of people who have lost or will lose affordable healthcare or lose healthcare end stop. One of those people is my wife whose insurance under the ACA is currently 709 bucks a month. I have no concept of what it would go to if ACA goes away. So, my personal retirement savings are likely to have to go up by a lot more just to stay even with my family's (and we are only a family of 2) increased health care costs.

These political things rarely are cut and dried to my way of thinking.

[Chik]

That is funny, but they work hard all the time. And even harder over the next few months. It happens every year.

I have entrusted the USPS with more than 400 mortgage payments and every single one has made it. Ditto with car payments and credit card payments, maybe 1200 or more because I've had several of those concurrently. The plural of anecdote is not data, but in my experience there are few systems that are more reliable (or cost effective but that's another discussion) than the USPS.

Apologies for going OT, but the fact that people in the US still write cheques boggles my mind. Even the French were able to move on.

[Saab2000]

Apologies for going OT, but the fact that people in the US still write cheques boggles my mind. Even the French were able to move on.

Most folks don't but others do. My mother does because it's what she's most comfortable with, being 83 and not good with technology and having written checks for decades. This is a nation of extremes. The most technically advanced in some ways and extremely backwards in others. That said, there's plenty of oddities and eccentricities in other places as well. The US is not unique in this regard.

[Chik]

Most folks don't but others do. My mother does because it's what she's most comfortable with, being 83 and not good with technology and having written checks for decades. This is a nation of extremes. The most technically advanced in some ways and extremely backwards in others. That said, there's plenty of oddities and eccentricities in other places as well. The US is not unique in this regard.

Japan’s obsession with fax machines and name stamps are only two of many...

[caleb]

By "investor class" I mean the titans of capital and industry who make the big $$, not the plebs who make out with the scraps. To quote Gordon Gekko: "I'm not talking a $400,000 a year working Wall Street stiff flying first class and being comfortable, I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time."

When I used "investor class" upthread, I didn't mean anything so grand. All I meant with it was people who actively move money in response to events, which includes everyone from actively managed funds to the yahoos on Robinhood.

@Saab2000 for those of us who are just passively plugging money into funds, I think of us more as savers than anything. We're not trying to buy and sell based on events, and so market moves aren't really attributable to your average saver. Maybe that's not a satisfying distinction from investing.

My only earlier point was that insofar as the market indicates sentiment on the part of those moving resources, it seems to indicate that they think happy days are ahead. I don't see that at all with a Republican Senate. If the Senate stays Republican, the economy is probably better off with Trump in the White House so the stimulus keeps flowing. With divided government, the tap is going to be turned off as tight as the Senate can turn it.

[Greg Costello]

As long as humans are counting I think error and/or fraud is a real possibility.

Speculate all you want but this has been exhaustively studied, particularly by Trump cronies who have looked under every imaginery rock. There is no record of it happening but on rare occurrences and just think of the magnitude that the scheme would have to have when you have 120 million plus people voting. Voter fraud at scale is an alternative fact for people living in an alternative world.

[jclay]

I think this is a pretty decent thumbnail overview of the Democratic Party's failures and worth a few minutes to read: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...mocratic-trump

It certainly comports with my opinions. It's funny, in a tragic sense, to think (as I do) that against Trump, Bernie coulda won and the US might be (ignoring Mitch) on it's way to universal health care, stronger unions, infrastructure modernization and concomitant domestic jobs, reinstatement of Glass Steagal and the like. And then I flip on the tube and see some idiot scream "I won't vote for Biden...I won't support a liberal socialist"; if anybody sees me wandering around mumbling to myself those are amongst the reasons.

I expect Mitch to pull out his Obama playbook if Biden gains the presidency; "We are going to make Obama a one-term president,". So much for putting the electorate's needs and desires first.

[Saab2000]

I expect Mitch to pull out his Obama playbook if Biden gains the presidency; "We are going to make Obama a one-term president,". So much for putting the electorate's needs and desires first.

I’m slightly more optimistic. He and Biden have known each other for decades in the senate, including many years when it was far less toxic than today. I’m hopeful that Biden wins (though realistic that it’s not over) and I’m hopeful that they can work together.

That said, it likely won’t be the agenda you’re hoping for. But I’m hopeful that it would be less obstructionist than under Obama. And if Biden doesn’t win we’re headed for bad years ahead.

[Colinmclelland]

...whose insurance under the ACA is currently 709 bucks a month...

Just some international WTF context. Our family's private health insurance (for a family of 5) is <A$400 per month. If we didn't have it, we'd still get treated in hospital, and that doesn't make Australia communist as far as I can tell..

and another WTF...

There is a lot of info out there and each state conducts things their way. You might start by visiting the secretary of state or board of elections site for states in which you're interested.

I understand why that's the case, but it just makes no sense at all.

Take the best method. Apply it across them all.

[echappist]

I’m slightly more optimistic. He and Biden have known each other for decades in the senate, including many years when it was far less toxic than today. I’m hopeful that Biden wins (though realistic that it’s not over) and I’m hopeful that they can work together.

That said, it likely won’t be the agenda you’re hoping for. But I’m hopeful that it would be less obstructionist than under Obama. And if Biden doesn’t win we’re headed for bad years ahead.

I would really hope this to be the case.

Let's not forget that we owe Voting Rights Act, two Civil Rights Acts, Medicare, and expansion of Social Security to one really odious and boorish man, but that man was, in the words of Robert Caro, a Master of the Senate (if not the Master of the Senate). Legislative experience goes a long way.

[zachateseverything]

I think this is a pretty decent thumbnail overview of the Democratic Party's failures and worth a few minutes to read: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...mocratic-trump

It certainly comports with my opinions. It's funny, in a tragic sense, to think (as I do) that against Trump, Bernie coulda won and the US might be (ignoring Mitch) on it's way to universal health care, stronger unions, infrastructure modernization and concomitant domestic jobs, reinstatement of Glass Steagal and the like. And then I flip on the tube and see some idiot scream "I won't vote for Biden...I won't support a liberal socialist"; if anybody sees me wandering around mumbling to myself those are amongst the reasons.

I expect Mitch to pull out his Obama playbook if Biden gains the presidency; "We are going to make Obama a one-term president,". So much for putting the electorate's needs and desires first.

meh. Sanders wouldn't have won. He couldn't even get people to turnout for him in the primary. He wasn't going to build the type of coalition of liberals, moderates, and new voters it would take to beat Trump much less carry the ballot enough to get the senate candidates over the hump.

the reality of the situation is that Joe out performed many of the candidates down ballot. he got a huge vote share as a percentage of the population. turnout was massive. and he was able to build a win by leveraging bi-partisan relationships he's built over his political career and running on a platform that walked a very tight line of being left enough to get the liberals to turn out for him but not so far left that centrists and moderates aren't scared away. and still messaging like "defund the police" and the (true or not) accusations of "socialism" almost cost Joe the Presidency and the Democrats the house as is.

I'm also not sure you really understand how much control the conservative media bubble has on a good chunk of the population. I work for a company that Trump tried to "cancel" several months back because of our corporate policy on not endorsing specific candidates at work. The vitriol I experienced from the general population as a faceless engineer was incredible. Random texts and phone calls were harassing employees. Our dealers had to suspend comments on yelp pages and other review sites. and still a not insignificant number of our employees voted for a second round of this.

moving forward the democrats are going to have significant issues with messaging to rural whites. Yeah, things like a government run healthcare plan or access to higher education and job training poll well in a vacuum and would help their economic prospects but anything that can be labeled as socialism is going to be a tough sell. as a whole, people are afraid of change.

[jimcav]

The election for me is not as frustrating as the mismanagement of COVID. All I've had to do during certain literal news reports (investigative inside sources and documents etc) is turn on Fox and hear what they are saying. This wouldn't be close if there was a more concerted Democratic hierarchy and effective risk assessment methods & risk communication.

Even earlier than the video of the white guy with the hammer breaking windows started circulating, coming into an election EVERYONE should have been on message that the violence was being instigated by fascists (or whatever label they want to throw). Immediate condemnation of any violence, not talking heads on TV and Twitter explaining that riots/vandalism/arson is the voice of those who aren't heard etc., etc.

Same with "defund"--what a STUPID slogan. DEMILITARIZE & REPRIORITIZE, with MORE FUNDING to train and include non-enforcement Mental Health Officers.

[beeatnik]

The election for me is not as frustrating as the mismanagement of COVID. All I've had to do during certain literal news reports (investigative inside sources and documents etc) is turn on Fox and hear what they are saying. This wouldn't be close if there was a more concerted Democratic hierarchy and effective risk assessment methods & risk communication.

Even earlier than the video of the white guy with the hammer breaking windows started circulating, coming into an election EVERYONE should have been on message that the violence was being instigated by fascists (or whatever label they want to throw). Immediate condemnation of any violence, not talking heads on TV and Twitter explaining that riots/vandalism/arson is the voice of those who aren't heard etc., etc.

Same with "defund"--what a STUPID slogan. DEMILITARIZE & REPRIORITIZE, with MORE FUNDING to train and include non-enforcement Mental Health Officers.

Jim, we almost lost the election because of Covid.

Jim, we're going to win the election because of Covid.

[jimcav]

agree with your latter assessment, not the 1st. I don't think this was close b/c of COVID, it is close because DEMS were dumb with messaging and giving the GOP raw material for their mis-info machine via dumb defund messaging), lack of consistency and clarity on the clear difference in primary debate topics and REAL Biden agenda, lack of ads designed to explicitly counter Trump propaganda on socialism, stupidity of letting passions on the RBG disrespect/replacement to even give credence to "Court packing". The message should have been that despite Trump/Mitch efforts "SCOTUS is one of the most respected institutions in the world and we have every confidence the justices will support and defend the constitution and rule of law as they have for the last X decades".

Once in office, THEN and only THEN should they discuss reforms. STUPID, and the above issues created fear and anxieties that WERE NOT necessary and drove votes the wrong direction.

[beeatnik]

Jim, lockdowns mobilized the Trump turnout. His tough talk solidified support with Cuban, Venezuelan, Nicaraguan (Nicaraguenses), and Colombian males in Florida and nearly flipped a few heavily Democratic Mexican American counties in Texas. Patriarchy and Family versus Covid. Covid almost lost.

[jimcav]

do you mean fear of lockdowns-no one was in lockdown, and in fact most places were clearly seeing the price locally in COVID cases of NOT being in lockdown. Until I see some in depth reporting/analysis from exit polls or something, I don't see the lockdowns as driving his turnout--I see it as fear mongering about riots, defunding, court packing etc.

[beeatnik]

Jim, we're living in different countries.