Changes that will be sticky & changes that will snap back post-pandemic

[caleb]

Of the changes or trends we see right now as a result of Covid, which ones do you think will be sticky, and which will fairly rapidly revert back to the previous norm?

Like during the last recession, there's a spate of articles circulating making the claim that American society is being drastically remade forever. I'll admit that I have my doubts this time, largely because last recession the changes were short lived. By 2012, American society looked a whole lot like the America of 2007 again. Is this time different, and, if so, why?

[Saab2000]

I think the airline business will take a long time to recover, if it does. It may well emerge much smaller as people realize 5 trips per year to Vegas, Punta Cana and Orlando aren’t actually that necessary. And business travel is down literally 90+%. Much of that was semi-frivolous as well. Zoom changes things.

My own break from flying starts Sept. 2. It’s voluntary and temporary (I hope) but it’s a big change in my life at least.

[sine]

I think the airline business will take a long time to recover, if it does.

Airline industry will rebound fairly quickly. I know a lot of smart folks are betting on it but most importantly, there will be a lot of pent up demand.

I don't think much will change long term. Working remotely will remain short term as work productivity declines (once C19 anxiety dissipates) will force everyone back into their cubicles.

All this of course depends on C19 vaccine success in early '21 followed by high vaccination rates.

[Bingissimo]

Working remotely will remain short term as work productivity declines (once C19 anxiety dissipates) will force everyone back into their cubicles.

I work for a large financial organization where the majority of our customer facing personnel were in call centres. I've been privy to some discussions as to the cost savings and I would tend to disagree. Offsetting the cost to provide a laptop, technology like VPN software and a monthly 'stipend' to compensate for a person to use their own internet service against the costs to maintain a facility the savings is overwhelming. From property taxes, to both internal and external maintenance and repair, custodial, heat/light/water, security, food service, furniture replacement the monthly cost/unit headcount is a tiny fraction for Work From Home (WFH) vs having employess in dedicated facilities. Our absentee rate is also way down, probably because people figure they can still pull on the headset with the sniffles where before they would call in sick and that positively contributes to productivity.

Productivity and tracking software is so much better than before that all the metrics we were getting before with people in the centre are still available to us. And the final thing, this workforce is younger and more used to using a computer to work remotely. They did it through their college educations and see this as a continuation. Saving on the cost to commute, park and going to the Tim Horton's in the building is a strong weekly incentive for a person to fully embrace the WFH experience. If anything it's the old guys like me who are having a hard time understanding that a shirt and tie are not necessary to go to work.

With net savings like these it's in the company's best interest to encourage WFH and for the workers to eagerly embrace it.

[Matthew Strongin]

I work for a large financial organization where the majority of our customer facing personnel were in call centres. I've been privy to some discussions as to the cost savings and I would tend to disagree. Offsetting the cost to provide a laptop, technology like VPN software and a monthly 'stipend' to compensate for a person to use their own internet service against the costs to maintain a facility the savings is overwhelming. From property taxes, to both internal and external maintenance and repair, custodial, heat/light/water, security, food service, furniture replacement the monthly cost/unit headcount is a tiny fraction for Work From Home (WFH) vs having employess in dedicated facilities. Our absentee rate is also way down, probably because people figure they can still pull on the headset with the sniffles where before they would call in sick and that positively contributes to productivity.

Productivity and tracking software is so much better than before that all the metrics we were getting before with people in the centre are still available to us. And the final thing, this workforce is younger and more used to using a computer to work remotely. They did it through their college educations and see this as a continuation. Saving on the cost to commute, park and going to the Tim Horton's in the building is a strong weekly incentive for a person to fully embrace the WFH experience. If anything it's the old guys like me who are having a hard time understanding that a shirt and tie are not necessary to go to work.

With net savings like these it's in the company's best interest to encourage WFH and for the workers to eagerly embrace it.

Agreed. I work in technology and my company went full time remote in a very short period of time (days). Though there are some scenarios where being in the office would be better, the pros of remote work (flexibility, work-life balance, cost savings you mention, environmental, etc.) outweigh the cons (mostly just not giving someone a firm handshake, if that's your style). I'm sure I'll eventually be back in an office for a meeting, but I don't see myself permanently going back to work in a shared workspace ever again. I certainly wouldn't take a job where that was the expectation. I've felt this way from a personal point of view as an employee for a long time. But this situation has started to bring my company around to the same points of view and in my role as a leader, I'm more convinced than ever that my team can be as successful, or more, working remotely than they were coming into the office.

[Ras72]

In the short term, I foresee a major up tick in cyber crimes. Both commercial and personal ID stuff.
Retail (brick and mortar) may never return - hopefully, people realize they shouldn't spend the dollar they thought was coming. We'll be a bit more cautious regarding future expenditures.
As said above, office rentals will be drastically reduced. This will be caused by businesses realizing they can still get work done and employees fighting back because they've settled into new norm.
On the positive side, I'd like to see a continuation of decreased pollutants. And an increase in the desire for people to return to nature.

[defspace]

My company has not reopened offices since March. Management has said they're interested in implementing long term work from home for those employees who want it. Most people seem to prefer working from home. I know I do.

We had some summer interns for the last few month. They're already pros at this distance working business. They're able to read the room without a problem. I think the 20-somethings coming into the office workforce are going to expect work from home... and they're good at it. If I were a student fresh out of college, opportunity to work from home would definitely be something I'd consider before accepting a position.

[rwsaunders]

Young people will have even less trust in the government and educational institutions than their parents and rightfully so, given the inept, uncoordinated and selfish manner in which federal, state and local governments are handling the pandemic. The effects will trickle down through their lifetime of spending, saving and decision making...I see it in my kids already.

[caleb]

Young people will have even less trust in the government and educational institutions than their parents and rightfully so, given the inept, uncoordinated and selfish manner in which federal, state and local governments are handling the pandemic. The effects will trickle down through their lifetime of spending, saving and decision making...I see it in my kids already.

Good point, and they've been given good reasons.

I'll add that one enduring impact of the last shock/recession was that I think it made people more insular, more tribal, more selfish, and less public spirited. And when people feel like they're getting continually screwed, it's unfortunate but understandable that their worldview narrows.

One of the major tasks ahead seems to be rebuilding a sense of the common good.

[suspectdevice]

RIP American Bicycle Road Racing

[dashDustin]

RIP American Bicycle Road Racing

Justin Williams has netted over $120k via a gofundme he setup in early June. I don't know if that's a sign of enthusiasm people have for bike racing in America, or something else.

[deano]

This is a super interesting question. Human nature is hard to budge and people forget a lot of things. Add, after a 2021 vaccine, warm weather, beer on draft, someone else serving you a meal, and seeing everyone's smiling faces and that might frustrate the notion of major ructions in the way people do things. I wouldn't bet on people doing a lot of business travel in the long run, though. I think the "experience" type travel industry mightl get a boost in the short term (Airbnb), renting a camper, outdoor sports, etc., but I would think rebound will be slower for hotels and airlines.

[NYCfixie]

I'll continue to wear a face mask on planes, trains, and mass transit (assuming I ever feel it is safe to get back on it for commuting to work).

I have been wearing a face mask on planes, trains, and mass transit for several years well before C19 (yes, I am that guy). Simply, people do not respect others and get on all forms of mass transportation when they are sick and often have a fever. I have no desire to be sick all the time because others refuse to vaccinate, get flu shots, and stay home when they are sick so they do not risk infecting everyone else. For me, C19 proved how selfish people can be when they know they are sick and will most probably infect others.

[j44ke]

Local farm owned by the Rockefeller Foundation is begging for apprentice dairy farmers. They have two slots open and incl. room and board. My wife and I are trying to gently prod our nephew to give it a shot. He did not have a good school year as a freshman at Syracuse. Sort of an understatement. Sub 2.0 grade point average. He cannot engage with education via teleconference. Needs hands on in-person interaction. One of many students I suspect. Anyway he’s lost all his hard won financial support, so we said hey why not try something else for a while. This program includes science, modern farm business and practical know-how alongside physical labor. He’d do well at it, but leading horses to water etc.

Maybe these apprenticeships will become more common. They certainly feel like more of a real world approach than paying $50K a year to watch professors lecture via Zoom conference.

[ides1056]

I began college at 22. The four years off made a world of difference. Spent two of them working on a farm.

Hit the ground running. Summa PBK.

[caleb]

I just renewed my drivers' license online for the first time ever. Now that such a system is up and running, I have to imagine the days of the in-person DMV are coming to a close.

[j44ke]

And also ticket revenues and tax revenues are cratering, creating giant budget shortfalls that many mass transit systems will find difficult to overcome, which will result is less maintenance, fewer buses/trains, less service, etc. ever downward.

[beeatnik]

Preschool in 2020/21 is a bit different so it’s tough to untangle. Restrictions are strict in LA preschools but toddlers have adapted to masks. At my daughter’s school early in the Pandemic masks were optional since there was still an expectation that young children wouldn’t tolerate masks well. However, policies have evolved and proper mask use is enforced, along with other reasonable precautions including more frequent hand washing, social distancing contracts and school only footwear.

I should look into whether there have been any hand foot and mouth outbreaks this year; there were 2 in 2019.

5 colds in 2 months sounds about right for toddler's in day care. When you put undeveloped immune systems fed by small people who put everything into their mouths into the same room germs spread. I think my son had some level of cold basically all winter his first year in daycare.

[thollandpe]

...other reasonable precautions including more frequent hand washing, social distancing contracts and school only footwear.

That last one is a really good idea. The whole thing about droplet transmission and the 6-foot distance is that the droplets fall on the floor. I recall reading a study about surface contamination in health care settings, and the floors were 100% positive.

And we green building geeks know that walk-off mats are extremely effective at improving indoor air quality, because what you bring into the building on the bottom of your feet will end up in the air.

So changing my shoes, just like this awesome guy, will be one post-pandemic change I'll try to stick with whenever I return from a public setting.


"You know what, kids? There could be some of the deadly 'rona on the soles of these shoes, and we don't want that shit to kill grandma, or our neighbors' grandmas, do we?"

[beeatnik]

More on (kids and) colds:

coldz.jpeg


https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1401898584631615488