Changes that will be sticky & changes that will snap back post-pandemic

[cny rider]

Changes I hope to be sticky .... a complete overhaul of the university/college/higher ed system. The cost and associated absurdity of the typical university has got to change. I don't know the exact right equation, but when a university builds luxury apartments on campus and its own mini hospital, along with the myriad other amenities that are disconnected from the mission of high ed, I no longer support the mission.

This is number one on my list as well.
Higher ed has looked like a bubble to me for the last 10 years. I think it's been popped and things are going to look much different 10 years from now.
Harvard will still be Harvard, and perhaps always will be, but tremendous change is coming for the non super-elite, the other 99%.

[slwrnu]

when I was a young lawyer in London I would sometimes get stuck on a file and think what should I do next. Often I would wander in to a senior colleague's office for a quick chat and come out with a better understanding and an idea of how to proceed. I know we can talk on the phone etc but I hope these physical meetings do not go away.

[rec head]

One thing I would like to see stick around is how much our local parks are getting used. People are doing their socially distanced meetups in the parks and its great. Blankets on the grass everywhere. I'm guessing this is what parks looked like before air conditioning.

[thollandpe]

when I was a young lawyer in London I would sometimes get stuck on a file and think what should I do next. Often I would wander in to a senior colleague's office for a quick chat and come out with a better understanding and an idea of how to proceed. I know we can talk on the phone etc but I hope these physical meetings do not go away.

This is one of my main concerns with my company's present work-from-home effort. As a senior-level engineer with decades of experience and a backlog of work, the main challenge is to keep myself motivated and focused (and you may ask yourself, well... how did I get here?).

But I worry that the less-experienced engineers are languishing, and missing that informal, small-bore, but constant kind of contact that keeps them engaged and allows them to help and learn.

The best-ever functioning group I was in was the tightest knit, and in the shittiest physical office environment. We were packed on top of each other in a 1950's-era office with 50's-era furniture, my boss and I had to look over our shoulders before moving a chair back because our desks were so close. Within a few years we moved into a "state-of-the-art" renovated office with new office system furniture and cubicles, physically segregated by pay grade which also determined the size of our cubes, height of the partitions, and furniture within. Morale and collaboration slipped, and I transferred to another department. And back to the 50's-era furniture (but with a drafting board).

[zachateseverything]

This is one of my main concerns with my company's present work-from-home effort. As a senior-level engineer with decades of experience and a backlog of work, the main challenge is to keep myself motivated and focused (and you may ask yourself, well... how did I get here?).

But I worry that the less-experienced engineers are languishing, and missing that informal, small-bore, but constant kind of contact that keeps them engaged and allows them to help and learn.

The best-ever functioning group I was in was the tightest knit, and in the shittiest physical office environment. We were packed on top of each other in a 1950's-era office with 50's-era furniture, my boss and I had to look over our shoulders before moving a chair back because our desks were so close. Within a few years we moved into a "state-of-the-art" renovated office with new office system furniture and cubicles, physically segregated by pay grade which also determined the size of our cubes, height of the partitions, and furniture within. Morale and collaboration slipped, and I transferred to another department. And back to the 50's-era furniture (but with a drafting board).

I have similar concerns in my workplace. My current job title is "senior engineer" but that really just means I'm someone that's in the mid-game of their career. I've built up enough internal contacts that I can stay very busy on my own. However I'm worried about losing the casual conversations with other associates.

First of all, my team has 4 younger engineers that aren't as self-sufficient as I am and I think are struggling to stay busy. In particular, the least self-motivated of the bunch has been actively taking advantage of the situation. I've taken it upon myself to do some formalized training and mentoring.

The other concern I have is that I'm losing visibility of other needs across the organization. The projects that I'm heavily involved with are fine, but the stuff where someone might just need to bounce ideas off of me for 15 minutes or so are drying up. If anyone has good suggestions on how to handle this I'm all ears.

[caleb]

On a lighter note, ladies and gentlemen, Jerry Seinfeld, So You Think New York is "Dead":

Manhattan is an island off the coast of America. Are we part of the United States? Kind of. And this is one of the toughest times we’ve had in quite a while.

But one thing I know for sure: The last thing we need in the thick of so many challenges is some putz on LinkedIn wailing and whimpering, “Everyone’s gone! I want 2019 back!”

Oh, shut up. Imagine being in a real war with this guy by your side.

Listening to him go, “I used to play chess all day. I could meet people. I could start any type of business.” Wipe your tears, wipe your butt and pull it together.

He says he knows people who have left New York for Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, Indiana. I have been to all of these places many, many, many times over many decades. And with all due respect and affection, Are .. You .. Kidding .. Me?!

There’s some other stupid thing in the article about “bandwidth” and how New York is over because everybody will “remote everything.” Guess what: Everyone hates to do this. Everyone. Hates.

You know why? There’s no energy.

Energy, attitude and personality cannot be “remoted” through even the best fiber optic lines. That’s the whole reason many of us moved to New York in the first place.

You ever wonder why Silicon Valley even exists? I have always wondered, why do these people all live and work in that location? They have all this insane technology; why don’t they all just spread out wherever they want to be and connect with their devices? Because it doesn’t work, that’s why.

Real, live, inspiring human energy exists when we coagulate together in crazy places like New York City. Feeling sorry for yourself because you can’t go to the theater for a while is not the essential element of character that made New York the brilliant diamond of activity it will one day be again.

You found a place in Florida? Fine. We know the sharp focus and restless, resilient creative spirit that Florida is all about. You think Rome is going away too? London? Tokyo? The East Village?

They’re not. They change. They mutate. They re-form. Because greatness is rare. And the true greatness that is New York City is beyond rare.

It’s unknown. Unknown anyplace outside of New York City.

You say New York will not bounce back this time.

You will not bounce back. In your enervated, pastel-filled new life in Florida. I hope you have a long, healthy run down there. I can’t think of a more fitting retribution for your fine article.

This stupid virus will give up eventually. The same way you have.

[MarkC]

I hope these physical meetings do not go away.

There is an HBR case study, I think it was Bell Labs, but memory may not be correct.

The gist of it was a company wanted to know who was most productive for generating IP and patents. Looking for the people with critical insight and hoping there was a special sauce which could be identified, learned, taught and shared. If they could identify those factors and share them, they would be even more innovative across the organization.

They expected to find a few top scientists and engineers driving innovation and IP. They found that, but in addition, when they dug deeper, they found that these stars all had in common something unexpected: They regularly took lunch in the company cafeteria with an individual who while not on the teams, and not listed on the patents, and not directly involved with projects, had often provided key insights and advice which shaped many inventions.

Pretty good story and shows how access to different brains matter and how those brains may not be on your dedicated team or accessed in formal meetings or team structures. We are definitely missing those connections in a remote working environment. I've had not dissimilar interactions throughout career with people who have important insights and freely share them. Grateful for those events.

[MarkC]

Reading above....

"Worst but Best Working Environment" would be a fun thread to continue post-Covid.

Mine was first biotech job. Building was being renovated so my first ever "office" was a small desk in an open space ModSpace trailer in a parking lot. We had junior scientists to VPs all sharing a small space. We also had snacks and a keg (after hours only) as a way for management to make it up to us.

On the surface it should have sucked, but it was actually great for doing work, batting around ideas and everyone in close proximity without worry as to title or pay grade. Durable friendships were formed and some fun work was accomplished.

[caleb]

This is one of my main concerns with my company's present work-from-home effort. As a senior-level engineer with decades of experience and a backlog of work, the main challenge is to keep myself motivated and focused (and you may ask yourself, well... how did I get here?).

But I worry that the less-experienced engineers are languishing, and missing that informal, small-bore, but constant kind of contact that keeps them engaged and allows them to help and learn.

Seems like there's two issues here.

The first is lost mentorship. In the legal context that @slwrnu mentions, during the last recession there was lots of handwringing within the profession about new grads passing the bar and hanging out a shingle because there were no jobs. The universally acknowledged fact was (and is) that a brand new grad is not ready to be an independent solo practitioner running a law office. Professional school prepares you to start on the bottom rung of an organization and learn as you go, not to be able to do everything on day one.

But the other loss is to senior folks who are no longer as engaged by acting as mentors. This is an open question, but what does year 40 of full time WFH look and feel like? Do any of us really want the lasting impact of our career to be that we sat in our spare bedroom alone for decades creating value for the company or institution? To me, that would feel pretty hollow.

[vertical_doug]

I think I should write a program to mimic a mouse moving so if companies are monitoring people working on a computer, then they can take a break and go sunbath, take dog for a walk or do something else equally important. I think its a growth industry- programs to beat electronic monitoring.

[bcm119]

I see some cracks developing in full time WFH. Burdens are shifting a bit, from the level of work distribution we had before covid, to the middle level people taking on more of the heavy lifting. New hires and less experienced folks are floundering a bit. Leaders at the top are also losing some perspective with less personal interaction and travel. Parents are understandably a little checked out. Bringing on new employees is a huge challenge when it's 100% virtual. I suspect that WFH, like most things, shot out of the gate a little fast, and post-covid it will recede back somewhere between now and what it was before. I don't see a large proportion of white collar work going 100% remote in the future, but enough so that the population can spread a little further out from urban centers.

[vertical_doug]

I'd like to see NYC and other large metro areas get cheaper. I feel like gentrification = sterile environment. Where did all the NYC starving artists go? The same can be said for London. My neighborhood in London sits pretty empty 8 mo out of the year, only to be occupied for 4 mo. The neighborhood sits dark and sterile except for the polish construction workers endlessly renovating a house.

[Matthew Strongin]

I see some cracks developing in full time WFH. Burdens are shifting a bit, from the level of work distribution we had before covid, to the middle level people taking on more of the heavy lifting. New hires and less experienced folks are floundering a bit. Leaders at the top are also losing some perspective with less personal interaction and travel. Parents are understandably a little checked out. Bringing on new employees is a huge challenge when it's 100% virtual. I suspect that WFH, like most things, shot out of the gate a little fast, and post-covid it will recede back somewhere between now and what it was before. I don't see a large proportion of white collar work going 100% remote in the future, but enough so that the population can spread a little further out from urban centers.

I tend to agree with this. WFH is awesome until it's not. I, personally, I really like it most of the time, but I do find the marathon meeting days where I'm on camera for 8 hours are much harder than a day in the office.

[Bob Ross]

On a lighter note, ladies and gentlemen, Jerry Seinfeld, So You Think New York is "Dead":

As someone who's lived in NYC for the past 20 years, also for ~7 years in the late 80s/early 90s, and in an NYC suburb from '71-'78, I can humbly say that Mr. Seinfeld is reaching.

Not that he's wrong about Florida...

[monadnocky]

I tend to agree with this. WFH is awesome until it's not. I, personally, I really like it most of the time, but I do find the marathon meeting days where I'm on camera for 8 hours are much harder than a day in the office.

I continue to maintain an office, about 15 miles away from my home. Although I have the choice of working from either location, it's sooooo much better for me to be in my office. Just feels.... I don't know, more professional, less distancing as opposed to being cooped up in a guest bedroom all day.

Either way, having 7-8 sessions per day over Zoom is much, much more exhausting than in person. No comparison.

[htwoopup]

Single data point but an important one, ATMO, that backs up some of the work related change predicted by others above.

On the call about first half financials, WPP which is a major advertising agency conglomerate, said that in the first half they had pandemic related cost SAVINGS that they expect to continue such as travel that amounted to 200 million dollars. (I am scientific wild ass guessing that it is almost 100% travel as first half numbers are too soon to include pretty much anything else like real estate).

That ain’t chicken feed.

And it is just one company that is not huge in the scheme of things.

“That they expect to continue”.

[marley]

I continue to maintain an office, about 15 miles away from my home. Although I have the choice of working from either location, it's sooooo much better for me to be in my office. Just feels.... I don't know, more professional, less distancing as opposed to being cooped up in a guest bedroom all day.

Either way, having 7-8 sessions per day over Zoom is much, much more exhausting than in person. No comparison.

100% agree - the office forces the professionalism - I hold back 30% of my personality at work but at home it creeps back in - no shower every morning, not shaving, wearing a hat, working in my briefs, I have not put on a collared shirt, pants, belt, socks or proper shoes with laces (other than riding) for over 6 months - this is not good.

[Matthew Strongin]

100% agree - the office forces the professionalism - I hold back 30% of my personality at work but at home it creeps back in - no shower every morning, not shaving, wearing a hat, working in my briefs, I have not put on a collared shirt, pants, belt, socks or proper shoes with laces (other than riding) for over 6 months - this is not good.

I put on long pants the other day to feel like an adult. Instead they just felt weird. Jeans will probably feel horrible.

[caleb]

100% agree - the office forces the professionalism - I hold back 30% of my personality at work but at home it creeps back in - no shower every morning, not shaving, wearing a hat, working in my briefs, I have not put on a collared shirt, pants, belt, socks or proper shoes with laces (other than riding) for over 6 months - this is not good.

I went in and saw my tailor the other day, and he says he's been slammed. Sounds like people have been in sweatpants for six months and are getting very concerned about the dimensions of their work clothes.

One advantage to wearing tailored clothes is there's a limit to what you can ignore, and at least for me that's a good accountability.

Single data point but an important one, ATMO, that backs up some of the work related change predicted by others above.

On the call about first half financials, WPP which is a major advertising agency conglomerate, said that in the first half they had pandemic related cost SAVINGS that they expect to continue such as travel that amounted to 200 million dollars. (I am scientific wild ass guessing that it is almost 100% travel as first half numbers are too soon to include pretty much anything else like real estate).

That ain’t chicken feed.

And it is just one company that is not huge in the scheme of things.

“That they expect to continue”.

In some areas, the professional conference travel was mostly soft compensation, although perhaps not at WPP.

When we hopefully one day get back to a world where there's some upward wage pressure, will the professional-conferences-in-Hawaii-with-your-spouse-tax-free budgets be restored, or will the compensation go to salary? The faux-work travel seems like it has a lot going for it from the employer's perspective, not least of which is that it can be cut with far less blowback than salary in a downturn.

[htwoopup]

<snip>
In some areas, the professional conference travel was mostly soft compensation, although perhaps not at WPP.

When we hopefully one day get back to a world where there's some upward wage pressure, will the professional-conferences-in-Hawaii-with-your-spouse-tax-free budgets be restored, or will the compensation go to salary? The faux-work travel seems like it has a lot going for it from the employer's perspective, not least of which is that it can be cut with far less blowback than salary in a downturn.

Agree, but I think there is an awful lot (like you say maybe not at WPP) that is real and it isn’t just about the travel industry. For instance, in advertising (and many other client/ service provider types of businesses) there has been a thought that face to face is better for results/ collaboration/ idea creation and fulfillment etc. As I was involved in media and had both suppliers and clients in LA, I would take the 8 AM flight from JFK to LAX every Monday morning and then the red eye back Monday night. I would do the same thing on Thursdays. For 17 years. Plus at least one day a week in addition I was day tripping to somewhere else. Even though I was always bumped to first class, it would never qualify as anything other than combat duty. But, it was what one did as face to face was what made it all happen.

As a side note, I did this as a single parent. I became a single parent when my practice wife was doing the same type of thing in the advertising business but she did it internationally for 3 weeks on the road and 1 week home which is not tenable from a marriage/parent perspective in my experience. Again, she did it because face to face meetings were thought to be absolutely necessary for the good of the product.

I think everyone has learned that that face to face thing was a false “business need”.

On a plus side, the work/ life balance thing will be better.

I still believe and worry that, without collaborattive in-person, stuff will be weaker.

But the bottom line thinking is that costs matter. It is the rare CFO that understands the difference between cost and investment.

That is why I think it will be more than the travel industry, real estate industry, restaurant, sports (who pays for all those boxes). That is from a dollars basis loss.

On a dollar basis plus, I do see a need for someone who knows how to get the human-ness/ human touch/ feel/ emotion/ team culture back into an idea process (from engineering to making movies) when it is all done over a wire instead of in-person.

On a bigger loss basis, I think there will be a real loss when good ideas stay good ideas and don’t become great ideas because the magic that happens through in person iteration is missing. But then again, I am old school that way.