Virus thread, the political one.

[bigbill]

Kingman, AZ is opening up. The gyms, all the restaurants, bowling alley, and maybe even the movie theater, if that's still a thing. Rates have dropped off tremendously and we weren't that good about social distancing or masks anyway. I'm going to spend the weekend in Flagstaff, just as a precaution. https://covid-19-mohave.hub.arcgis.com/

[htwoopup]

As an American married to a Canadian and currently over the border in Canada, this is a political discussion that is a representative one of what I understand from my expat friends living around the world.

86% of Canadians do not want the US border reopened. And the whole Covid thing is only a part (or a vehicle) of how Canadians are now looking at the US. It should be particularly troubling to Americans as Canada has always been there for the US and even done the job for "Freedom" that was too dirty or hard for the US...think of the Iran hostages to sending Canadian Armed Forces into "hotspots" around the world.

[GrantM]

I'm sad to say, it's too late for the US.

At 6 months in, you've missed the opportunity to make this a problem that could be managed or controlled,
and now the time to end the madness, and take your lumps. Open up, go back to "normal", and live with the
consequences. I'm not sure there really is any alternative. You're not going to take enough action to make
any difference at this point, so get it over with and in another 6 months at least you'll be on the other side of it.

-g

[jimcav]

I'm sad to say, it's too late for the US.


-g

uh, too late for the dead, but not too late for the TENS of MILLIONS who have NOT had this. Between doing nothing: "reopening to normal" etc; and even just the current hodge-podge of some people/areas trying to practice good hygiene AND wear masks AND physically distance themselves whenever possible, well there are a few 100K to millions of excess deaths that do not have to happen.

[GrantM]

Between doing nothing: "reopening to normal" etc; and even just the current hodge-podge of some people/areas trying to practice good hygiene AND wear masks AND physically distance themselves whenever possible

It doesn't work, as evidence of the last 6 months, you need almost everyone to play along - your broken institutions
and ineptitude in leadership haven't convinced enough people to get them to follow this or any plan.

You can't avoid the contact with others if schools, churches, malls, restaurants etc are going to be open.
Keeping these places closed for another year is not a viable option.

Sadly, this was the reality many countries understood half a year ago, many others are just in denial
and remain in denial that you can't unbreak an egg.

So yes, by all means, you can practice all the hygiene and distance all you want, but this does't stop the spread.
It like the protection of a vaccine - it doesn't work to protect an economy or society if only half the people take it,
you need widespread compliance.

-g

[jimcav]

I disagree. I truly lament the sad and pathetic overall USA response to the pandemic, but I had to do some public health work while on active duty and have spent many nights reading the pre-publish and published models and reports on the pandemic.

Our lack of unified, consistent, and rigorous response has indeed made it far worse than it needed to be, but there are many of us, millions of us, doing the right things, and that does decrease transmission. Look at some of the models that show the impact of doing various measures.

The best outcomes on cases require multiple actions, but even some percentage doing simple actions has an impact, even if a far lesser impact than doing ALL the actions. Certainly we could be in a far better situation, but it could still be much worse. For one example, all the recent university outbreaks didn't need to happen, but the schools have responded, they have isolation dorms, etc. Sure, there are already so many needless deaths, like Herman Cain etc, but there would be many, many more if the entire
nation stupidly followed/enacted the "liberate" tweets.

[GrantM]

Our lack of unified, consistent, and rigorous response has indeed made it far worse than it needed to be, but there are many of us, millions of us, doing the right things, and that does decrease transmission. Look at some of the models that show the impact of doing various measures.

I think people are confusing what they want to happen, with what is really happening.

What is required: Reducing the transmission significantly enough so that it stops replicating.
What is happening: slowing down the rate it continues to spread.

Slowing, but not halting the transmission just extends the timeline of the pandemic.
Another year of the present state and there won't be a 'normal' to return to.


-g

[GrantM]

86% of Canadians do not want the US border reopened.

The problem now is that after months of keeping the spread pretty low and rates under wraps,
it's been not been possible to keep the efforts indefinitely. Rates are now heading up.

B.C. has more daily cases now than in March. I don't know what comes next.
People want their normal lives back, but we aren't at the end of the tunnel yet.


https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...9e3cda29297ded

[Mark Kelly]

I think people are confusing what they want to happen, with what is really happening.

What is required: Reducing the transmission significantly enough so that it stops replicating.
What is happening: slowing down the rate it continues to spread.

Slowing, but not halting the transmission just extends the timeline of the pandemic.
Another year of the present state and there won't be a 'normal' to return to.


-g

The statistics say otherwise. Allowing for very bad underreporting of actual cases, the US has likely had 10-20 million total cases so far, something like 5% ( +/-) of the population and about 1.5% of those cases have died, so a bit under 0.1% total.

New case rates / death rates have flattened out, at current rates it would take 3000 to 5000 days* to reach 75% of the population. Hopefully a vaccine arrives before then.

If you lift the lid and let her rip and return to the R₀ numbers that were there at the beginning, doubling every ten days or so, you'll get there in about 70 days. On the way the health system will collapse totally.

If you replicated Australia's least successful response (my state of Victoria), it would take >30,000 days, more than an average person's lifespan.

* the variation in figures is because I don't trust the case rate numbers, they have always been far too low. Assuming a fatality rate around 1.5% and back calculating from the current death rate says the case rates being reported are about 50% low.

[htwoopup]

The problem now is that after months of keeping the spread pretty low and rates under wraps,
it's been not been possible to keep the efforts indefinitely. Rates are now heading up.

B.C. has more daily cases now than in March. I don't know what comes next.
People want their normal lives back, but we aren't at the end of the tunnel yet.


https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...9e3cda29297ded

The thing Americans don’t understand, is the Canadians are 100% right.

I can’t speak to other provinces or even other areas of Quebec other than Mont Tremblant.

But we would all be well served if things worked like they do in Tremblant. Lines are 2 meters apart, you sanitize before you enter the store and there is someone there to make sure you do. That same person, in a grocery store, sprays the cart with disinfectant. And so on. People stay apart in the aisles.

Neighbors help out if someone needs to do the 14 day quarantine with dropping off food etc at the door.

Basically, everybody does the true meaning of Canada (a word that comes from the Huron-Iroquois word for « village » or « community »)

In short, they get it. Without drama. Without « i have a right to be selfish ».

I don’t understand why the US doesn’t get it.

[beeatnik]

The statistics say otherwise. Allowing for very bad underreporting of actual cases, the US has likely had 10-20 million total cases so far, something like 5% ( +/-) of the population and about 1.5% of those cases have died, so a bit under 0.1% total.

New case rates / death rates have flattened out, at current rates it would take 3000 to 5000 days* to reach 75% of the population. Hopefully a vaccine arrives before then.

If you lift the lid and let her rip and return to the R₀ numbers that were there at the beginning, doubling every ten days or so, you'll get there in about 70 days. On the way the health system will collapse totally.

If you replicated Australia's least successful response (my state of Victoria), it would take >30,000 days, more than an average person's lifespan.

* the variation in figures is because I don't trust the case rate numbers, they have always been far too low. Assuming a fatality rate around 1.5% and back calculating from the current death rate says the case rates being reported are about 50% low.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insigh...n-and-immunity

Does the decrease in new cases from the summer peak mean that Americans are reaching herd immunity? Is that a desirable outcome?

The decrease in cases since the outbreaks of June and July appear to be due to rigorous attention to social distancing, masking, testing, isolation, contact tracing, and other ordinances and measures taken to reduce spread (not to mention fear of infection). These efforts are not perfect, but they seem to have reduced the spread of the virus in most areas.

There is no evidence of herd immunity. Obviously, in areas that have more previously infected individuals, there are fewer susceptible and that helps to reduce the height of future outbreaks. But the definition of herd immunity is quite specific: it is a level of immunity in the community that makes further outbreaks impossible. While there may be some very small areas (including, perhaps some prisons at a single point in time) that have achieved herd immunity, no large region, and certainly no state, is even remotely close to this. In order to achieve herd immunity through infection on this scale, we would need to accept tremendous morbidity and mortality; assume that we know enough about long-term harms of SARS-CoV2 infection; and assume that infection results in durable immunity—no new infection or new disease. I think it is a bad premise and a dangerous experiment to try.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3gh...SWS9H6OS4DaIjA

TL;DL(isten): Vaccine or widespread inexpensive testing are the only way out.

[Mark Kelly]

Also worth remembering that we never reached herd immunity by natural infection for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox etc etc. It took vaccines to achieve herd immunity for these diseases and we are now at risk of losing it for some of them. Thanks, Karens.

[gregl]

Also worth remembering that we never reached herd immunity by natural infection for measles, mumps, rubella, polio, smallpox etc etc. It took vaccines to achieve herd immunity for these diseases and we are now at risk of losing it for some of them. Thanks, Karens.

20th century medical miracles being undone by 21st century morons. I never thought I’d see stupidity reach pandemic proportions.

Greg

[thollandpe]

Sometimes it's worth reading Ross Douthat just to see his ass handed to him in the comments section.

How Many Lives Would a More Normal President Have Saved?

Unfortunately the NYT comments section is not the zeitgeist of the nation (or maybe more accurately the Electoral College) but it does seem painfully obvious that tRump has completely screwed the pooch in regards to coronavirus response and sadly, tragically, the death toll on his watch is way higher than it should have been. He sailed us into this shitstorm, despite the protestations of many, and despite the more prudent actions of the sane leaders of almost every other country. This albatross is his to wear.

[ides1056]

"Anti-Fascist Fred"

there ought to be a shirt...

[Mark Kelly]

Meanwhile in Indonesia, a local official has handed out an exemplary punsihment for flouting mask regulations: the community service to which they were sentenced was digging graves for Covid-19 victims. Perhaps he's a secret admirer of Gilbert and Sullivan.

[vertical_doug]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ayed-down.html

The man is more comfortable lying and saying whatever he wants then anyone I have ever seen publicly.

While not denying the 'downplayed' comment in Woodward's book, (well, it is on tape), he says he actually 'up played' it with action.

[Mark Walberg]

When his dad said, "Son, you have to believe in your self.",
little Donnie really took it to heart.

[sine]

The thing Americans don’t understand, is the Canadians are 100% right.

I can’t speak to other provinces or even other areas of Quebec other than Mont Tremblant.

But we would all be well served if things worked like they do in Tremblant. Lines are 2 meters apart, you sanitize before you enter the store and there is someone there to make sure you do. That same person, in a grocery store, sprays the cart with disinfectant. And so on. People stay apart in the aisles.

Trembant is not representative of larger Quebec. I lived in Quebec so know full well that simple minds abound just like any other province/state/country.

The hygiene and social distancing you describe is the practice where I live and vacation in my state of North Carolina.

[72gmc]

And now, the Big Ten conference is volunteering its population, led by its football programs, for the ongoing experiment. Heart damage is still a mystery but the need for votes in swing states is not.