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Thread: Virus thread, the political one.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Colleges Are Getting Ready to Blame Their Students - The Atlantic

    "With new coronavirus cases on the rise in most states, the notion that universities can reopen safely for in-person instruction in the fall is questionable, maybe even fantastical. According to a soon-to-be-published study led by Yale and Harvard researchers, outbreak control would require testing all students every two or three days—a tall order when the federal government is blocking the funding needed to do so. And universities that do intend to screen students for the virus are creating those plans without federal guidance: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, somewhat mysteriously, has failed to recommend testing for students without symptoms or exposure."

    Is opening schools in the fall even possible?
    Trod Harland, Pickle Expediter

    Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced. — James Baldwin

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

    Cases and mortality by country

    COUNTRY- CONFIRMED CASES - DEATHS - CASE-FATALITY - DEATHS/100K POP.
    Beeats, sort that list on deaths per 100,000 population and the US moves way, way up. Top 10.

    You sorted it on the case-fatality ratio, so US is 52nd. That stat depends on the number of confirmed cases, so it is directly affected (or potentially skewed) by the amount of testing (or lack thereof). Think that explains the aversion to testing by the current administration? Like it's actually a strategy?

    Stats are fun. Misuse of stats is propaganda.
    Last edited by thollandpe; 07-21-2020 at 04:58 PM.
    Trod Harland, Pickle Expediter

    Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced. — James Baldwin

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Chris Wallace was referring to the Case Fatality Rate. Point is both sides dont understand simple percentages. That's kind of scary.

    Essentially it was confusion interpreting a category which Johns Hopkins created, "Mortality in the most affected countries." Spain, Italy and France are not included in this category because their cases are dropping.

    Mortality in the most affected countries
    For the twenty countries currently most affected by COVID-19 worldwide, the bars in the chart below show the number of deaths either per 100 confirmed cases (observed case-fatality ratio) or per 100,000 population (this represents a country’s general population, with both confirmed cases and healthy people). Countries at the top of this figure have the most deaths proportionally to their COVID-19 cases or population, not necessarily the most deaths overall.


    Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

    cfr.jpeg

    deathw.jpg

    In sports, they call this moving the goal posts.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    At the Coronavirus update, pervert, pedophile, rapist, criminal, fucktwat has this to say.

    “I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell, who was arrested earlier this month and charged with facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    ________
    Quote Originally Posted by Sbti View Post
    At the Coronavirus update, TRAITOR, pervert, pedophile, rapist, criminal, fucktwat has this to say.

    “I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell, who was arrested earlier this month and charged with facilitating Jeffrey Epstein’s alleged sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sbti View Post
    At the Coronavirus update, pervert, pedophile, rapist...“I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell, who was arrested earlier this month and charged with facilitating...alleged sexual exploitation and abuse of minor girls.
    Just so it's clear, there were many more exploiters of girls than just Epstein...Trump and British royalty included...that woman will probably be dead in jail shortly as she has too many stories to tell. Can you imagine? She probably has stories and money trails to back them up...
    Jason Babcock

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    “I just wish her well,” Trump says of Ghislaine Maxwell.

    My Last Duchess

    That’s my last Duchess painted on the wall,
    Looking as if she were alive. I call
    That piece a wonder, now; Fra Pandolf’s hands
    Worked busily a day, and there she stands.
    Will’t please you sit and look at her? I said
    “Fra Pandolf” by design, for never read
    Strangers like you that pictured countenance,
    The depth and passion of its earnest glance,
    But to myself they turned (since none puts by
    The curtain I have drawn for you, but I)
    And seemed as they would ask me, if they durst,
    How such a glance came there; so, not the first
    Are you to turn and ask thus. Sir, ’twas not
    Her husband’s presence only, called that spot
    Of joy into the Duchess’ cheek; perhaps
    Fra Pandolf chanced to say, “Her mantle laps
    Over my lady’s wrist too much,” or “Paint
    Must never hope to reproduce the faint
    Half-flush that dies along her throat.” Such stuff
    Was courtesy, she thought, and cause enough
    For calling up that spot of joy. She had
    A heart—how shall I say?— too soon made glad,
    Too easily impressed; she liked whate’er
    She looked on, and her looks went everywhere.
    Sir, ’twas all one! My favour at her breast,
    The dropping of the daylight in the West,
    The bough of cherries some officious fool
    Broke in the orchard for her, the white mule
    She rode with round the terrace—all and each
    Would draw from her alike the approving speech,
    Or blush, at least. She thanked men—good! but thanked
    Somehow—I know not how—as if she ranked
    My gift of a nine-hundred-years-old name
    With anybody’s gift. Who’d stoop to blame
    This sort of trifling? Even had you skill
    In speech—which I have not—to make your will
    Quite clear to such an one, and say, “Just this
    Or that in you disgusts me; here you miss,
    Or there exceed the mark”—and if she let
    Herself be lessoned so, nor plainly set
    Her wits to yours, forsooth, and made excuse—
    E’en then would be some stooping; and I choose
    Never to stoop. Oh, sir, she smiled, no doubt,
    Whene’er I passed her; but who passed without
    Much the same smile? This grew; I gave commands;
    Then all smiles stopped together. There she stands
    As if alive. Will’t please you rise? We’ll meet
    The company below, then. I repeat,
    The Count your master’s known munificence
    Is ample warrant that no just pretense
    Of mine for dowry will be disallowed;
    Though his fair daughter’s self, as I avowed
    At starting, is my object. Nay, we’ll go
    Together down, sir. Notice Neptune, though,
    Taming a sea-horse, thought a rarity,
    Which Claus of Innsbruck cast in bronze for me!

    Robert Browning
    Jay Dwight

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    Chris Wallace was referring to the Case Fatality Rate. Point is both sides dont understand simple percentages. That's kind of scary.
    Apologies if it was covered, but i only saw the part of the interview over this dispute.

    It appears to me, the forest for the trees problem here is the fact the attention is on the past,
    when the reality is the current projections have this virus running around well through November.

    It's not magically going away with the warm weather, so it appears the efforts to this point have been inadequate.
    so the only question is about what action comes next to fix this, or is the strategy really to let it burn?

    -g

    proj.jpg
    EPOst hoc ergo propter hoc

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    ^No argument about that but percentages are percentages. As Israel is learning, a 2nd wave or a surge or a spike can occur even when it seems the virus has been contained. So, Italy, France, Spain, Germany aren't out of the woods. Italy had a case fatality rate of 14.3% and 58.01 deaths per 100K, Spain 10.7% and 60.83, respectively. These numbers are/were frighteningly higher than the current numbers in the US. In fact, Canada isn't doing that great by these measures (7.9% and 24.02). What can be extrapolated? The CFR will continue to drop for the US (more testing, younger population infected) and deaths per 100k will rise slightly (population isn't infinite). The question is will the US get this under control and will there be a second wave in Italy, Spain, France, etc. I think a frightening and likely scenario is the slow burn one. Cases will continue to rise, CFR will continue to decrease (3.7%) and then suddenly (seemingly) cases nationwide will plummet as in the Northeast. Trump will take credit and you know where the story ends. The timing for his embrace of mask usage is sinisterly criminal.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    Chris Wallace was referring to the Case Fatality Rate. Point is both sides dont understand simple percentages. That's kind of scary.
    I don't understand your both sides comment. Wallace says the US's mortality rate is higher than Brazil and Russia. imPOTUS counters "I think we have one of the lowest mortality rates in the world."

    Whether you rank on case-fatality ratio or deaths per 100,000 population is immaterial. The mortality rate in the US is higher than Russia and Brazil if you rank by the former, higher than Russia and lower than Brazil if you rank by the latter. Wallace was not wrong.
    Source: Mortality Analyses - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

    It's inconceivable that it's one of the lowest in the world. This is not a both sides thing, it's that our president is lying.

    For new deaths, we're number three (behind India and Mexico). For new cases per day, we're number two (behind India). Absolute numbers, not percentages. Source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 15,233,349 Cases and 622,565 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

    We're in deep number two, certainly. And as Grant says, it's not just about where these numbers are, it's about where they're headed. And how fast.
    Trod Harland, Pickle Expediter

    Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced. — James Baldwin

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    They weren't arguing about relative position. Wallace said the US is no 7 for CFR.

    "Most affected countries currently"
    cfr.jpeg

    We may have been 7 when Fox was doing its pre-production research.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Whatever percentage it is 140K is a lot of people dead,

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    They weren't arguing about relative position. Wallace said the US is no 7 for CFR.

    "Most affected countries currently"
    cfr.jpeg

    We may have been 7 when Fox was doing its pre-production research.
    Didn't Wallace say we were 7th for mortality rate, which not the same as case fatality rate? It's hard to keep up with the numbers shifting by the day, but the transcript you posted says mortality rate. Maybe he corrected himself later. I didn't watch the full video.
    "I guess you're some weird relic of an obsolete age." - davids

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew Strongin View Post
    Didn't Wallace say we were 7th for mortality rate, which not the same as case fatality rate? It's hard to keep up with the numbers shifting by the day, but the transcript you posted says mortality rate. Maybe he corrected himself later. I didn't watch the full video.
    Just looking at deaths / 1MM of population is simplest (death per capita which normalizes in the simplest form). India is the real head scratcher in all metric. Government randomly tested a bunch of people in Delhi and they believe 20% of the population has anti-bodies, yet total deaths are so low. So either they just are ignoring the deaths of the poor and saying other on official forms, or if you survive a world of dysentery and other wonderful sicknesses, your immune system is maybe fairly robust.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by vertical_doug View Post
    Just looking at deaths / 1MM of population is simplest (death per capita which normalizes in the simplest form). India is the real head scratcher in all metric. Government randomly tested a bunch of people in Delhi and they believe 20% of the population has anti-bodies, yet total deaths are so low. So either they just are ignoring the deaths of the poor and saying other on official forms, or if you survive a world of dysentery and other wonderful sicknesses, your immune system is maybe fairly robust.
    I wonder what role obesity/BMI plays in the death rates? I know it's a predictor of mortality, but the India numbers are stunning.
    Jason Babcock

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by beeatnik View Post
    ^No argument about that but percentages are percentages.
    Not really, none of it matters.

    This is Trump's jedi mind trick; someone quotes any statistic, or he quotes one, and the dispute ensues.
    All the oxygen in the room is used up until time ends, and no real questions get asked, let alone answered.

    That's how Trump is never held accountable. Trump walks away victorious. He's like the temp office
    worker who just needs to make it to 5pm without accomplishing anything, but gets to go home at
    the end of the day, mission accomplished.

    -g
    EPOst hoc ergo propter hoc

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by GrantM View Post
    All the oxygen in the room is used up until time ends, and no real questions get asked, let along answered.
    Like playing chess with a pigeon.
    The pigeon knocks all the pieces over.
    And shits all over the board.
    Then struts around as if it won.
    Trod Harland, Pickle Expediter

    Not everything that is faced can be changed, but nothing can be changed until it is faced. — James Baldwin

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    He can't escape approximately 145,000 dead and counting though.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by vertical_doug View Post
    Just looking at deaths / 1MM of population is simplest (death per capita which normalizes in the simplest form). India is the real head scratcher in all metric. Government randomly tested a bunch of people in Delhi and they believe 20% of the population has anti-bodies, yet total deaths are so low. So either they just are ignoring the deaths of the poor and saying other on official forms, or if you survive a world of dysentery and other wonderful sicknesses, your immune system is maybe fairly robust.
    And don't forget Mexico. A positivity rate of 42% and only 6552 tests/1M pop. Deaths/1M still lower than the US (313 v 441). In Mexico, there may be rampant corruption and criminality in business and government but one thing Mexico does well is count the dead.

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    Default Re: Virus thread, the political one.

    Quote Originally Posted by BBB View Post
    He can't escape approximately 145,000 dead and counting though.
    A quick tour of Fox, Red State, and the National Review this afternoon yielded zero mention of the number dead, or that millions of Americans are about to lose their supplemental unemployment unless Congress acts, which would create social and financial upheaval well beyond what we saw during the Great Recession. Apparently formulating policy for spending a trillion+ and rescuing the country from ruin is now a one day story. The escape is in process.

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