Virus thread, the political one.

[beeatnik]

"The science should not stand in the way" of reopening schools.
-- Kayleigh McEnany

One amazing thing about statements like that is that they leave the non-cheering portion of the audience speechless. How does one mount a (peaceful) challenge against a position like that?

The cynical bastard meant the science is on their side. You can search the CNN updates for their elaboration. In any case, the numbers are interesting. According to Nature, the estimates from the following study are good measures:

https://osf.io/wdbpe/

How deadly is the coronavirus? Scientists are close to an answer
Kilpatrick and others say they are eagerly awaiting large studies that estimate fatality rates across age groups and among those with pre-existing health conditions, which will provide the most accurate picture of how deadly the disease is. One of the first studies to account for the effect of age was posted on a preprint server last week. The study, based on seroprevalence data from Geneva, Switzerland, estimates an IFR of 0.6% for the total population, and an IFR of 5.6% for people aged 65 and older.

Using those infection fatality rates and assuming that no more than 5% of the school age population could be infected, the number of fatalities would be 28.

57M School aged children, half between the ages of 5 and 10 and half between 11 and 18
1,425,000 (5-10) x 0.0016% = 23
1,425,000 (11-18) X 0.00032 = 5

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Of course, the danger is to the staff and community (if we accept the premise that children are not super spreaders and less infectious than adults). So what does that mean in terms of numbers? Well, we can't talk about that...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...095-X/fulltext



This math-challenged knucklehead is not doing anyone any favors:

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[Matthew Strongin]

I've yet to see anything compelling to suggest that kids are less likely to spread COVID19, particularly since most kids have been locked up at home and are not interacting with kids or supervisors in a school like setting currently. I have seen articles covering examples of summer camps, the closest analog we have to school, that do show spread of COVID19.

[beeatnik]

^According to an LA City Hall insider, household transmission is driving infections in Los Angeles. If that's the case and the average affected household has 3 kids, then a spike in infections would be seen in the under 18 age group. The numbers don't support that. Of course kids, aren't being tested at the same rate as adults which at this point represent 15% (1.5M) of the adult aged population in LA County.

http://dashboard.publichealth.lacoun...nce_dashboard/

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The situation in Florida should increase understanding on the impact of children in the spread of coronavirus.
31% of coronavirus tests in Florida children are positive, data shows | WFLA

[ides1056]

My stepfather voted for W. He got pretty hot when I asked whether he would cough up a grandkid for the war effort.

My son, 17, has no interest in finding out whether he might get sick if he goes back to school. Whatever he chooses to do is okay with me. His sister was self-schooled home-schooled and she is gainfully employed at 21: a case-worker at the local addiction treatment facility.

The trend line is going in a bad direction. That is my take on what I read.

[j44ke]

I've yet to see anything compelling to suggest that kids are less likely to spread COVID19, particularly since most kids have been locked up at home and are not interacting with kids or supervisors in a school like setting currently. I have seen articles covering examples of summer camps, the closest analog we have to school, that do show spread of COVID19.

Study in Korea says older kids are “at least equal to” adults in transmittance. And by older kids they mean kids 10-19. So an efficient way to wipe out your teachers.

Older Children Spread the Coronavirus Just as Much as Adults, New Study Finds - The New York Times

[Rich Beaudoin]

In addition to the mortality risk, but there has been documented long-term neuropsychological damage found in covid patients (clotting can lead to stokes and/or oxygen deprivation).
Who wants to risk potential life-long problems if you survive?
People who understand the risks won’t send their kids back to classrooms and teachers won’t accept those risks.

[Clean39T]

In addition to the mortality risk, but there has been documented long-term neuropsychological damage found in covid patients (clotting can lead to stokes and/or oxygen deprivation).
Who wants to risk potential life-long problems if you survive?
People who understand the risks won’t send their kids back to classrooms and teachers won’t accept those risks.

People who can afford to stay home with their kids... Unless some things change with the stimulus plan - like, I dunno, giving money to people and forging rent (not just extending payments) - there is no hope any of this will get better. If you have to work to live or to avoid being out on the street, there is no real choice about whether to send your kids to school - especially if sending them to school means they get fed AND you can go earn money.

[beeatnik]

In addition to the mortality risk, but there has been documented long-term neuropsychological damage found in covid patients (clotting can lead to stokes and/or oxygen deprivation).
Who wants to risk potential life-long problems if you survive?
People who understand the risks won’t send their kids back to classrooms and teachers won’t accept those risks.

The reporting of the risk of stroke in young covid-19 patients is a red herring. It's been know for years that strokes in young individuals (defined as under 50) are associated with upper respiratory infections. However, the medical community hasn't felt compelled to publicize the association as neurologists are primarily interested in risk factors which are preventable, ie, smoking.

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[Chik]

Study in Korea says older kids are “at least equal to” adults in transmittance. And by older kids they mean kids 10-19. So an efficient way to wipe out your teachers.

Older Children Spread the Coronavirus Just as Much as Adults, New Study Finds - The New York Times

One thing I find mind boggling is that some people talk as if different demographic groups, eg, children or people with underlying health issues, don't interact with one another, that they exist in their respective bubbles.

I believe one of the main reasons why Israel went from being a star at handling the pandemic to a basket case is because they reopened schools. Children are as efficient at transmitting the bug, many are either asymptomatic or fever isn't the first symptom so taking their temperature when they arrive at school isn't useful... potentially turning schools into incubators.

[Matthew Strongin]

One thing I find mind boggling is that some people talk as if different demographic groups, eg, children or people with underlying health issues, don't interact with one another, that they exist in their respective bubbles.

I believe one of the main reasons why Israel went from being a star at handling the pandemic to a basket case is because they reopened schools. Children are as efficient at transmitting the bug, many are either asymptomatic or fever isn't the first symptom so taking their temperature when they arrive at school isn't useful... potentially turning schools into incubators.

Exactly where I'm coming from. Unless someone proves that kids can't spread it to each other or to adults, as in kids who get it have such amazing immune systems that the virus transmission stops, the idea of sending them all back to school is bonkers. From a viral transmission standpoint, that is. Clean39T makes a great point about the economics of the situation. As for viral transmission, anyone who has young children and been around an outbreak of hand-foot-and-mouth disease at a school know how quickly little ones can give an easily spread virus to each other. And that's a disease that barely has an effect on an adult caretaker should they catch it.

While there are studies that show lower infection rates or fewer severe outcomes for children, most of the ones I've seen are myopic and leave out critical variables. Like, as beatnik notes above, stating that children make up a smaller number of total cases while ignoring lower testing rates for children and sometimes equally high positivity rates. But if you look for examples of kids congregating, of which there aren't that many due to the precautions most people are taking, it seems pretty clear that the virus still spreads and does so like you'd expect from a virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...9e0_story.html

[jclay]

What boggles my mind, or would have before the age of Trumpism, is that any adult would posit that children + school doesn't equal an outstanding airborne viral transmission system. Isn't that about as obvious and well established as the notion that stepping in front of a rapidly moving train is gonna hurt? Does anybody really need data on that?

Ignoring everything else Trump has done, that a significant percentage of the population rejects wearing particulate masks and exercising other well established principles of fighting these sorts of diseases tells me that the USA has had a social cancer metastasising for a long, long time (and that's not really news, either); Trump is simply the guy that encouraged certain folks to exercise their worst, most base human behavior. Exceptional nation, indeed.

[Saab2000]

Question about masks. Not trying to get into these political threads any more than necessary anymore and this one only touches on it.

I wear a mask in public places that require them, like stores. I don't wear it outdoors or while working out on my bike, which by necessity where I live includes some trails, shared with other users.

Am I the problem? I believe in wearing my mask but it's not really occurred to me that I'm exhibiting high-risk behavior while not wearing it on my bike. Some other trail users do wear them, though there's no obvious consensus.

This might not be the right thread for this but what are others doing in outdoor spaces? These trails aren't "crowded" but they're not deserted either and occasionally there's some bunching up as speeds and directions differ.

Not political here. Just curious what others are doing while outdoors. Indoors it's not in question. Mask on.

[mbrtool]

I ride the North Branch trail which does get busy on the weekends. I ride with no mask but when it does bunch up I tend to hold my breath the best I can and get out of the crowd as quickly as possible.

Ray

[jclay]

Question about masks. Not trying to get into these political threads any more than necessary anymore and this one only touches on it.

I wear a mask in public places that require them, like stores. I don't wear it outdoors or while working out on my bike, which by necessity where I live includes some trails, shared with other users.

Am I the problem? I believe in wearing my mask but it's not really occurred to me that I'm exhibiting high-risk behavior while not wearing it on my bike. Some other trail users do wear them, though there's no obvious consensus.

This might not be the right thread for this but what are others doing in outdoor spaces? These trails aren't "crowded" but they're not deserted either and occasionally there's some bunching up as speeds and directions differ.

Not political here. Just curious what others are doing while outdoors. Indoors it's not in question. Mask on.

I'm not riding, or for the most part doing anything else, where there is the slightest chance that I'll encounter the unmasked slipstream/exhaust cloud of anybody. I occasionally screw that up but it's what I work for. That means I'm not doing much riding.

Barring a vaccine miracle (which = the pharma solution + instant vast production + instant vast distrubution and application) this will be a very long trudge through an environment of rapidly expanding exposure possibilities; rapidly and widely enough that virtually every one of us will be exposed to the virus numerous times. One screw-up in prevention of actually getting the infection, ever easier to do by the hour, can end or change your life. My choices reflect that reality.

That it is still sensible, for meaningful discourse, to disavow political angles is indicative of just how bad our situation is and how badly it will likely deteriorate.

[thollandpe]

Mask in jersey pocket here. It goes on if I need to pass another cyclist on the road, or when there are pedestrians coming the other way.

If you’re on a trail that’s busy enough to make that a common occurrence, you can put one ear loop behind the helmet straps so you can let it dangle when solo.

More effective and looks better than holding your breath.

[zachateseverything]

What boggles my mind, or would have before the age of Trumpism, is that any adult would posit that children + school doesn't equal an outstanding airborne viral transmission system. Isn't that about as obvious and well established as the notion that stepping in front of a rapidly moving train is gonna hurt? Does anybody really need data on that?

Ignoring everything else Trump has done, that a significant percentage of the population rejects wearing particulate masks and exercising other well established principles of fighting these sorts of diseases tells me that the USA has had a social cancer metastasising for a long, long time (and that's not really news, either); Trump is simply the guy that encouraged certain folks to exercise their worst, most base human behavior. Exceptional nation, indeed.

I view opening schools as a high risk but as also high reward activity. There are a lot of people that can't afford to stay home with their kids all day or even to feed them. and younger kids in particular are going to miss out a lot of social lessons by staying away from their peers all day. but we also know that schools are a prime infection vector for all kinds of other diseases, this shouldn't be any different.

I think if we had real leadership at the federal level and everyone took this serious from the get go we could have had enough containment on the spread of the virus that kids could go back to school (with significant modifications) and this should have been a priority. Unfortunately part of the trade-off is that we'd also miss out on some of the other medium to high risk stuff with lower rewards that people decided were VERY important. Like going to the bar or the hair salon.

One of the major factors going on right now I'm afraid is that you simply just can't fix stupidity.

[Saab2000]

I'm not riding, or for the most part doing anything else, where there is the slightest chance that I'll encounter the unmasked slipstream/exhaust cloud of anybody. I occasionally screw that up but it's what I work for. That means I'm not doing much riding.

Barring a vaccine miracle (which = the pharma solution + instant vast production + instant vast distrubution and application) this will be a very long trudge through an environment of rapidly expanding exposure possibilities; rapidly and widely enough that virtually every one of us will be exposed to the virus numerous times. One screw-up in prevention of actually getting the infection, ever easier to do by the hour, can end or change your life. My choices reflect that reality.

To this point, I don’t live in fear of the virus. I live in common sense and respect the virus. My job involves working in proximity to others, including co-workers and customers. I’m not in a position to abandon my career just because it involves human interaction. Living involves risk. My entire career is predicated on risk management and mitigation.

My cycling, I think, is far riskier due to texting drivers and other road users and not because of this virus. I’m mostly curious if others wear a mask outdoors.

I’m sitting eating breakfast at an outdoor spot in Batavia, IL as I type this. The nearest person is probably 30’ away.

[zachateseverything]

Question about masks. Not trying to get into these political threads any more than necessary anymore and this one only touches on it.

I wear a mask in public places that require them, like stores. I don't wear it outdoors or while working out on my bike, which by necessity where I live includes some trails, shared with other users.

Am I the problem? I believe in wearing my mask but it's not really occurred to me that I'm exhibiting high-risk behavior while not wearing it on my bike. Some other trail users do wear them, though there's no obvious consensus.

This might not be the right thread for this but what are others doing in outdoor spaces? These trails aren't "crowded" but they're not deserted either and occasionally there's some bunching up as speeds and directions differ.

Not political here. Just curious what others are doing while outdoors. Indoors it's not in question. Mask on.

What kind of trail? I think lightly trafficked mountain bike trails where you can space out pretty easily on the trail itself and communicate passes are ok-ish maskless. I'd avoid riding any kind of mixed use trail though without a well fitting N95 mask right now. Remember, the cloth masks are more for protecting others if you're asymptomatic.

If you normally have to ride on MUP's to get outside of the city limits to find the quiet roads from your front door, I'd recommend thinking about doing a car portage instead for the near future or getting the N95 mask.

Personally, my rides are falling into 2 categories right now. I'm either doing a solo road ride and giving any other cyclist or pedestrian I pass a very wide berth or I'm doing a mtb ride off peak hours and being very cognizant of how close I get to anyone.

[jclay]

To this point, I don’t live in fear of the virus. I live in common sense and respect the virus.

Neither do I, I simply aim to not get it and I have the option be pretty free in exercising the related choices.

My job involves working in proximity to others, including co-workers and customers. I’m not in a position to abandon my career just because it involves human interaction. Living involves risk. My entire career is predicated on risk management and mitigation.

Of course. One has to do what one has to do. As a recently retired person I have far more flexibility; I recognize that.
I was raised from day one (more like osmotic transmission) with a tailhook Naval aviation mindset as it relates to risk management, situational awareness and that sort of thing...and taking ridiculous risks where I had the skills (or luck) to get away with it. I'm certainly not flawless but that sort of thing is like breathing.

My cycling, I think, is far riskier due to texting drivers and other road users and not because of this virus.

You know, I was going to chuckle as though we shared an inside joke, because it's long been that way, but then I thought....wait a minute....how many CV deaths in the US since the beginning....it's over 140,000 so, actually, you don't! For some reason that gives me a queer feeling with respect to violating the natural order of things. Weird.

I’m mostly curious if others wear a mask outdoors.

I do where I think there's a realistic potential for exposure. For my money, riding in a group would certainly qualify. On a trail with not too much other cyclist traffic? I wrestle with that but am erring on the, uh, "conservative" side.

[thollandpe]

I view opening schools as a high risk but as also high reward activity. There are a lot of people that can't afford to stay home with their kids all day or even to feed them. and younger kids in particular are going to miss out a lot of social lessons by staying away from their peers all day. but we also know that schools are a prime infection vector for all kinds of other diseases, this shouldn't be any different.

I think if we had real leadership at the federal level and everyone took this serious from the get go we could have had enough containment on the spread of the virus that kids could go back to school (with significant modifications) and this should have been a priority. Unfortunately part of the trade-off is that we'd also miss out on some of the other medium to high risk stuff with lower rewards that people decided were VERY important. Like going to the bar or the hair salon.

One of the major factors going on right now I'm afraid is that you simply just can't fix stupidity.

That’s the kernel of it right there. It’s a failure of leadership, ongoing and catastrophic.

We’ve known for months that the primary transmission path is person-to-person. And to interrupt that we need to maintain adequate distancing, manage density and traffic patterns, provide personal protective equipment, and step up cleaning practices.

The current administration has actively fought those, witness the mask debate and staffers removing stickers from seats at the campaign rally in Tulsa.

Secondary concerns are checking ventilation and air filtration. Providing active air cleaning (like UV or HEPA filters) if the basics fall short.

• There coulda/shoulda/woulda been a blue ribbon panel convened to develop distancing, PPE, and cleaning practices for schools.
• There coulda/shoulda/woulda been a blue ribbon panel convened to develop a checklist and prioritized action items for school ventilation systems.
• There coulda/shoulda/woulda been a federal program to recruit and hire an army of custodians to clean our schools after hours, and let the current custodians concentrate on cleaning high-touch surfaces during the school day.
• There coulda/shoulda/woulda been a task force of experts willing and able to help strapped and/or overstressed school systems deal with these concerns.
• There coulda/shoulda/woulda been an ask, a fireside chat with us like adults, to identify reopening of schools in the fall as a national priority, and that we just might have to put off things like bars and concerts in order to make that safely happen.

But at the 11th hour to call for reopening schools, and even threaten those that won’t, is a recipe for more disaster. While providing the people responsible for reopening with essentially zero tools. By actually working against them by stirring controversy. Jaw-dropping incompetence and negligence. Unless it’s actually part of the plan.

That’s why it’s now impossible to separate the virus from the politics in the US.