Covid19

[Octave]

Meanwhile, we are seeing vaccines with high efficacy rates nearing production and distribution. Anyone care to comment on general availability? I would think the first distribution should begin in December. Curious how this all goes and when we will begin to see results with infection curves, etc.

I know nothing but what I read in the various news sources I frequent. But the news on the vaccine front appears to be generally positive.

Cautious optimism. As a member of the medical/pharmaceutical community I see really big potential in what has been made public/available, but also some glaring problems: no substantial results in elderly or children, (obviously) no long-term follow-up to see how long immunity lasts and whether adverse events precipitate with time, and of course the storage problem (so far these are all "cold vaccines" which require -70C storage and once thawed cannot be refrozen, thus distribution even in so-called "civilized nations" will be a challenge).

The biggest fear from my end is that people see this news as an implicit permission slip to surrender on all other fronts, not realizing that it will be many months before any of us normies see a vaccine. Unless you're a healthcare worker or otherwise essential and/or high-risk individual, I would not expect a vaccine until mid 2021 based on production rates and distribution challenges. The UK and US have both rallied distribution plans for mid-late December, but that will be absolutely essential front-line workers. This does not mean everyone can go see their family for Thanksgiving and Christmas, throw out their masks, and stop giving a sh*t as many people seem to be doing.

[Saab2000]

Cautious optimism. As a member of the medical/pharmaceutical community I see really big potential in what has been made public/available, but also some glaring problems: no substantial results in elderly or children, (obviously) no long-term follow-up to see how long immunity lasts and whether adverse events precipitate with time, and of course the storage problem (so far these are all "cold vaccines" which require -70C storage and once thawed cannot be refrozen, thus distribution even in so-called "civilized nations" will be a challenge).

The biggest fear from my end is that people see this news as an implicit permission slip to surrender on all other fronts, not realizing that it will be many months before any of us normies see a vaccine. Unless you're a healthcare worker or otherwise essential and/or high-risk individual, I would not expect a vaccine until mid 2021 based on production rates and distribution challenges. The UK and US have both rallied distribution plans for mid-late December, but that will be absolutely essential front-line workers. This does not mean everyone can go see their family for Thanksgiving and Christmas, throw out their masks, and stop giving a sh*t as many people seem to be doing.

I'm thinking the same thing. It'll be sometime in 2021 before these reach "normal" people and the data collection will be massive to learn more. I don't mean by my first post to imply that the situation is finished. But it seems like there's a light at the end of the tunnel and hopefully it's not another train coming in our direction.

[monadnocky]

Last week I personally knew zero people infected. This week, I know nine. Six of these were due to a guy in his 60's who, in order to play in his men's league (hockey), got tested negative, played hockey, contracted the virus almost immediately, and then spread it to his wife (in her 60's), grand-daughters, and grand-daughter's parents.

I guess it's really important to play hockey at this time.

From where I sit I'm seeing an appalling easing of vigilance around this - people who don't ascribe to wacky fringe beliefs about it, who normally would be completely sensible are engaging in completely reckless and irresponsible behavior. Like this cognitive bias that the better you know someone the less likely you are to be infected by them. I fear this is going to result in some horrible consequences over the holidays.

The virus does not care one whit about how related - or not - you are to your cousin and her family flying in from Hoboken to be with your family on Thanksgiving. It cares about one thing and one thing only. Replicating.

[Tom]

If it keeps going like it is around here, it is going to get ugly. Schenectady County, up until the end of October the 7 day rolling average was less than 10. Two weeks later it crossed 20. A week later, it is approaching 40 thanks to two days above 60 out of the last three. And we're not nearly as bad off as just about anywhere else.

[Mark Kelly]

the storage problem (so far these are all "cold vaccines" which require -70C storage and once thawed cannot be refrozen, thus distribution even in so-called "civilized nations" will be a challenge).

Info here is that the Moderna vaccine only requires -20 ^oC, e.g. normal freezer temperature. Given that both it and the Pfizer vaccine are mRNA vaccines I'm not sure why the stated difference in storage temperature exists.

In other news my state of Victoria is down to zero known cases statewide so lockdowns, though brutal, can be effective.

For those not up on what's happening here Victoria is about the size of Massachusetts, we had a second wave here which at its peak in August hit about 8,000 cases. This was sparked by the use of undertrained subcontractors in the quarantine arrangements: like many western countries much of our economy runs on exploitative subcontracting and it bit us in the bum this time. The counter action was described as one of the world's strictest lockdowns but it seems to have had the desired effect.

[Paul Jacobs]

The Oxford vaccine apparently only requires normal fridge temperature. Their results showed that a half dose followed by a full dose was more effective than a full dose followed by a full dose, which is interesting and also means that less vaccine will be required than originally thought.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

[thollandpe]

It cares about one thing and one thing only. Replicating.

"You still don't understand what you're dealing with, do you? Perfect organism. Its structural perfection is matched only by its hostility."

"I admire its purity. A survivor... unclouded by conscience, remorse, or delusions of morality."

"I can't lie to you about your chances, but you have my sympathies."

-- Science Officer Ash

[Too Tall]

Astrazenica (Oxford) is the one I've been rooting for since this mess started. They just made the news with very good results. I won't rehash why I'm a fan, let's allow the science to speak for itself.

Fingers crossed.

BTW I'll take whatever comes first the train or the bus, just jab that cr@p in my arm thank you very much.

[Chik]

I must say that I'm happy we don't have Thanksgiving over here with masses crisscrossing the continent or even within respective countries, but I anticipate December/early January to be a superspreader month. Various surveys on whether people plan to ignore government guidelines during the holiday season suggest Miss Rona will be extremely busy over the next 6 weeks.

[vertical_doug]

I must say that I'm happy we don't have Thanksgiving over here with masses crisscrossing the continent or even within respective countries, but I anticipate December/early January to be a superspreader month. Various surveys on whether people plan to ignore government guidelines during the holiday season suggest Miss Rona will be extremely busy over the next 6 weeks.

Yes, definitely better to wait for the days to be shorter (less UV) , colder and more damp before hosting the superspreader event.

I am back in NY now. I am just watching what is happening around me- local school had one case last Monday, then a teacher, then not enough teachers to hold class and school is fully online by Friday until sometime tentatively in December. My daughter tested negative and came home, but several of her friends from various Universities tested positive and are spending Thanksgiving quarantined with roommates.

CBS News NY reported this morning that 600 bodies remain in freezer trucks from the spring. Either no next of kin have been identified, or relatives cannot afford a funeral. I cannot think of a more sad statement of failure by NYC

[sine]

BTW I'll take whatever comes first the train or the bus, just jab that cr@p in my arm thank you very much.

Better to ride one of the bicycles than take mass transit...........would suck if you got C19 on the same day you got the first C19vac jab.

[Too Tall]

Better to ride one of the bicycles than take mass transit...........would suck if you got C19 on the same day you got the first C19vac jab.

Not literally...figuratively ;)

[Saab2000]

CBS News NY reported this morning that 600 bodies remain in freezer trucks from the spring. Either no next of kin have been identified, or relatives cannot afford a funeral. I cannot think of a more sad statement of failure by NYC

I saw this as well. Possibly an administrative issue? Or legal? NYC has long had a place for unclaimed bodies to be buried.

It does surprise me that this is unresolved months later.

[Paul Jacobs]

Astrazenica (Oxford) is the one I've been rooting for since this mess started. They just made the news with very good results. I won't rehash why I'm a fan, let's allow the science to speak for itself.

Fingers crossed.

BTW I'll take whatever comes first the train or the bus, just jab that cr@p in my arm thank you very much.

From BBC News:

Russian vaccine 'to cost less than $20 per person'
The developers of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine say it will sell internationally for less than $20 (£15) for two doses. That's cheaper than its American rivals, but more expensive than the Oxford University jab.

Personally, I think I would prefer the American or English ones. Maybe it is because I am a child of the cold war or because I lived in a part of North Wales which was covered with fallout from Chernobyl or I dealt with patients who had been treated on the Russian Eye Ship in the Mediterranean but I can't imagine feeling happy about being injected with Sputnik V.

[Chik]

CBS News NY reported this morning that 600 bodies remain in freezer trucks from the spring. Either no next of kin have been identified, or relatives cannot afford a funeral. I cannot think of a more sad statement of failure by NYC

That's tragic.

[vertical_doug]

From BBC News:

Russian vaccine 'to cost less than $20 per person'
The developers of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine say it will sell internationally for less than $20 (£15) for two doses. That's cheaper than its American rivals, but more expensive than the Oxford University jab.

Personally, I think I would prefer the American or English ones. Maybe it is because I am a child of the cold war or because I lived in a part of North Wales which was covered with fallout from Chernobyl or I dealt with patients who had been treated on the Russian Eye Ship in the Mediterranean but I can't imagine feeling happy about being injected with Sputnik V.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/132853...-95-effective/
The jab will be free to Russian citizens, and will be available on international markets for less than £7.50 a dose.

But despite the optimistic announcement, the Kremlin today confirmed that Vladimir Putin will not be taking the "safe" second vaccine currently in development in Russia as it is still uncertified.

President Putin last month announced that a second jab, the 'EpiVacCorona', was in development as the country bolsters its efforts in the race for an effective global vaccine.

But asked if the strongman President would take the jab, Kremlin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov said: "We have not yet begun a widespread vaccination and the head of state can't take part in vaccination as a volunteer. It's impossible."


Or you read Animal Farm - All animals are equal, some animals are more equal than others. . .

[echappist]

From BBC News:

Russian vaccine 'to cost less than $20 per person'
The developers of Russia's Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine say it will sell internationally for less than $20 (£15) for two doses. That's cheaper than its American rivals, but more expensive than the Oxford University jab.

Personally, I think I would prefer the American or English ones. Maybe it is because I am a child of the cold war or because I lived in a part of North Wales which was covered with fallout from Chernobyl or I dealt with patients who had been treated on the Russian Eye Ship in the Mediterranean but I can't imagine feeling happy about being injected with Sputnik V.

I would prefer the German/Pfizer or the English one. Definitely a hard pass on the ones from Russia and P.R. China.

[marley]

I would prefer the German/Pfizer or the English one. Definitely a hard pass on the ones from Russia and P.R. China.

Was it even a consideration to take something that has had zero peer review*?

*outside of the respective country/gvt

[Scott G.]

Personally, I think I would prefer the American or English ones. Maybe it is because I am a child of the cold war or because I lived in a part of North Wales which was covered with fallout from Chernobyl or I dealt with patients who had been treated on the Russian Eye Ship in the Mediterranean but I can't imagine feeling happy about being injected with Sputnik V.

Rumor has it the secret ingredient in the Russian vaccine is polonium.
Room temperature storage for easy deployment via umbrella.

[davids]

The vaccine news is good. The presidential transition news is good. The USA may be able to gear up to actually prioritize and distribute the vaccines as they become available. The USA may actually exert influence, wealth and even power to distribute the vaccine throughout the world.

I'm getting cautiously optimistic. And as soon as that feeling emerges, my knee-jerk reaction is to scoff at my cautious optimism.