Covid19

[Tristan]

Here in New Zealand we're on full country-wide lockdown for 4 weeks starting tomorrow. Here we go...

[slwrnu]

here in my part of Tirol we have been in lockdown for perhaps 3 weeks. my little village, perhaps 2500 people, has been silent. the local chef has been doing a brilliant job delivering hot food by hand to locals and then at the weekend a nice lady delivers some fresh food to my doorstep and presses my doorbell. I then get the wok going and prepare some rather more simple meals (spag bol, thai curry type of thing) and deliver it myself, no close contact is involved. It seems this could go on for months. Staying at home for 99percent is boring but we must all get it done.

[vertical_doug]

Comparing the US and South Korea charts at this site is illustrative (they don't break out Japan)
Coronavirus Update (Live): 378,842 Cases and 16,51 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus: 43,734 Cases and 553 Deaths - Worldometer

Total cases, active cases, and deaths are still on a textbook logarithmic increase in the US.

South Korea Coronavirus: 8,961 Cases and 111 Deaths - Worldometer

Total cases is showing how to bend the curve, and active cases are actually decreasing. Total deaths is on a linear, rather than exponential, rise.

The other two graphs, Newly Infected vs. Newly Recovered and Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death), are very interesting. In South Korea the trend lines are diverging in the right direction.

Those last two graphs aren't available on the US page right now, but last time I saw them the Outcome of Cases trend lines had crossed and were headed in the wrong direction. Concerning.

I tried explaining this across the hall, but people are a bit worked up now.

Instead of South Korea and Japan, you can use Princess Cruise data as your best controlled study.
3000+ passengers and crew docked in Japan and were immediately quarantined. Testing was immediately started on people showing symptoms. When your test came back positive, you were immediately taken off the boat, and placed into medical care improving outcomes. 712 people were infected and 8 died. 1.12% mortality rate. Although the 1000 crew on the boat were mostly younger , the passengers definitely skewed older and many had pre-existing conditions. Although a small sample, not far from the Korea 1.32% mortality rate. The Korean testing is probably closer to capturing the true number of infected but not all. Cases are still increasing around 1% per day so there is this long tail. Even though people on the boat were for the most part self-isolating in their cabins, the problem was common areas of the ship. When people went out for exercise etc, they most likely touch the same hand rails, door handles, to pick up trace. Some crew members were infected and before they developed symptoms, were delivering food to cabins. (Yeah, think again about takeout, please)

In the US and Italy, the data on outcomes is skewed wrong (higher mortality versus recoveries) , the data is explainable by a mortality bias. You first need to be infected, then you either recover or die. If you were never diagnosed with an infection and recovered, you aren't in the data. If you only test people who are sick enough to require being admitted to the hospital, you have a bias in your test sample. Because the US Hospitals are not yet overwhelmed by the sick, I do not think you can claim inadequate care is leading to a poorer outcomes than Princess Cruise or Korea. If you treat Italy the same, then the 10% mortality of infected can only points to estimating the true infected number is probably 10x larger. Add to that the hospitals are overwhelmed, and you get poorer outcomes. Essentially what Gov Cuomo is trying to avoid in NY by ordering hospitals to increase number of beds, and trying to get people to shelter in place.

Now I compare this to horses at a horse show. A few years ago in Wellington Florida at the Winter Equestrian Circuit, there was an outbreak of Strangles. It is a respiratory disease which is spread by a horse sneezing. It is highly infectious. Although your horse may not die (8% mortality), it may have permanent neurological damage making it worthless. An infected horse was shown at the circuit infecting other horses. A week later, other horse were showing symptoms, and the circuit had a problem. At the urging of vets, the show was cancelled, everyone put their stables into lock down- 6000 horses. People stopped visiting other stables. For people needing to visit, every stable had a pool of disinfected to step into and areas to wash up. Although people could not get strangles, they could pick up the virus and transport it to a different stable infecting horses there. All sounds familiar. It took over a month of quarantine to starve the virus out. The most infected stable, barn ZERO, was quarantined far longer to be safe.

It boggles my mind how the thought of losing your million dollar horse caused people to immediate change behavior even though you as a person could not become ill. But the prospect of infecting another human being does not cause people to change there behavior now. We really are a materialistic society.

[vertical_doug]

The Princess Cruise also has an apocalyptic warning in the data. A closed system with extremely high density. The Virus infected about 20% of the population in 2 weeks.

NYC while density is not as high as Princess Cruise, has the highest population density in the US. It's a worry. It is why Cuomo's face looks like he stared into the abyss when he is giving us his warning.

[vvv321]

We really are a materialistic society.

Of course we are, our leadership is now thinking of opening up businesses to protect the economy, if that's not the most insane thing I've ever heard I don't know what is.

[Chik]

Bossing it in Nanjing, China where new infections are now zero:



As for Japan, now that a postponement of the Olympics is a near certainty, expect the numbers to climb since the government no longer has an incentive to artificially suppress the numbers.

Back in Europe, Sweden is still married to herd immunity as the first response: Swedish PM warned over 'Russian roulette-style' Covid-19 strategy. Absolutely bonkers. And, Nick, the article indicates that they seem to be suffering from both types of misunderstandings, the one you described as well as mine.

An ex-army Swedish classmate mentioned that some of his reservist buddies were told over the weekend to get suited up and were handed assault rifles for domestic duties, details of which are yet unknown but are certain to be linked to the health crisis.

[Lionel]

At least the idiot in the UK finally ordered a lock down. Mind boggling.

Lock down rules are tightening in France. No more outside food markets, can only go as far as 1km from your house once a day for less than 1h with the appropriate paperwork. Fines are much higher now and can go as high as 1500 euros if you are caught more than once. Curfew in some cities but not nationwide (I do not understand this, what is the big deal of a curfew at night if you have a shelter in place order.

[Chik]

At least the idiot in the UK finally ordered a lock down. Mind boggling.

Because he got bitch-slapped by Macron.

But this was this morning on the Jubilee Line: Twitter

So much for keeping a distance.

[vertical_doug]

Because he got bitch-slapped by Macron.

But this was this morning on the Jubilee Line: Twitter

So much for keeping a distance.

You can hardly blame the BoJo for this. We changed our company hours March 7. I told employees they should come in very early to beat rush and leave at 2, or come in around 11 and leave late after evening Rush to ease congestion. The following weekend, we decided to work remote... I needed to get some physical documents yesterday, so I rode my bike into the office. I was surprise to see some of the other floors in our building occupied and people working. Of course, one firm where the top guy told me 2 weeks ago he thought this was all overblown was still in and working. I always thought the guy wasn't very good, he just confirms it.

On a funny note, my friend who heads a coding team said he advised members to try to keep a minimum of personal hygiene since we are on video chat.

My daughter's team is having Friday Zoom Video happy hour, everyone on screen sharing a toast. It's nice to keep spirits up.

I'm following State Department Advisory and flying back to NY. Basically, London to the Containment Zone. Or as they say, out of the pot into the fire... I have confidence in Cuomo and believe in the medical professionals. It is darkest before the dawn right now. I see a glow on the horizon.

-on a side note, I am told by my wife in NY that families in the area have teenage children hospitalized. It seems many vaped. (or at least that is the rumor)

[sk_tle]

Covid-19 took Manu Dibango's life :|

[Chik]

You can hardly blame the BoJo for this. We changed our company hours March 7. I told employees they should come in very early to beat rush and leave at 2, or come in around 11 and leave late after evening Rush to ease congestion. The following weekend, we decided to work remote... I needed to get some physical documents yesterday, so I rode my bike into the office. I was surprise to see some of the other floors in our building occupied and people working. Of course, one firm where the top guy told me 2 weeks ago he thought this was all overblown was still in and working. I always thought the guy wasn't very good, he just confirms it.

On a funny note, my friend who heads a coding team said he advised members to try to keep a minimum of personal hygiene since we are on video chat.

My daughter's team is having Friday Zoom Video happy hour, everyone on screen sharing a toast. It's nice to keep spirits up.

I'm following State Department Advisory and flying back to NY. Basically, London to the Containment Zone. Or as they say, out of the pot into the fire... I have confidence in Cuomo and believe in the medical professionals. It is darkest before the dawn right now. I see a glow on the horizon.

We'll have to disagree on BoJo, but that's for the other thread. And, yeah, members of the public behaving irresponsibly is a significant problem.

You reminded me that on a video call the other day, I remembered that I didn't have trousers on.

But it was too late.

[zachateseverything]

the highlight of my week so far was my co-workers golden retriever crashing our team video call yesterday morning.

[gt6267a]

the highlight of my week so far was my co-workers golden retriever crashing our team video call yesterday morning.

my 3yr old has joined a few meetings. audio only. i've been called a poopy face, asked to play monster (in our house its a running / chasing game), and shared a lot of giggles. so far, people are enjoying the bonus sounds.

[j44ke]

poop - plus translations and derivatives - is the most joyful curse word of early childhood. So much elation in speaking it out loud as a child!

[gt6267a]

poop - plus translations and derivatives - is the most joyful curse word of early childhood. So much elation in speaking it out loud as a child!

poopy face, fart breath, and peanut head are gotos around here. always good on FaceTime for a laugh.

[Toddykins]

the highlight of my week so far was my co-workers golden retriever crashing our team video call yesterday morning.

Trying to get your head to align with one in your virtual zoom background is another fun game...

[Drew]

From the department of You Can't Make This Up:

Friend works in healthcare. Coworker is now a confirmed case covid-19. Friend's employer allowed coworker to return to work, after coworker had been on a cruise and had been sick the week prior. Fortunately, friend has been smart and likely exposed no one outside others that were already exposed to coworker.

We have found the enemy and he is us.

[Chik]

Well done.

New Rochelle was a major coronavirus cluster two weeks ago. Here's where it stands now.

[Too Tall]

My county, some Social Distancing Stats: Twitter

#humblebrag

[davids]

My wife & I walked around our local pond last night, an urban destination with a newly paved path around the perimeter. After dinner, just around nightfall. Lovely spring weather brought a lot of people out.

I felt we were mostly successful at maintaining social distancing, but there were spots where the path narrowed that were difficult to navigate. Along with oblivious fellow citizens who made themselves difficult to avoid. Plus there were numerous runners paired off and trotting past us.

I don't know.

I'm hyper-aware of this now, and doing my best to stay away from everyone not explicitly in my designated circle (yes, I have a very small designated circle.)

The transformation of our social spaces is dramatic. But is it enough?

So I posted this ( /\ ) Friday. The Boston Globe caught up with my question.

Yes, that photo is our local pond. No, I am not in the photo. I'm keeping my distance. And I'm not telling you where I'm walking!

jpond.jpg