Covid19

[gregl]

Any thoughts on the Great Barrington declaration?

I still need to read the original text, but I suppose it's a reminder that science is subject to interpretation.

I'm not an epidemiologist, and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. My $0.02: we don't know if COVID immunity (based on recovery from the virus) is long- or short-term. Until that fact is known, exposure-based herd immunity is just a roll of the dice. We need more facts and less unscientific opinions. Remember that the Great Barrington Declaration was issued from a self-described, free-market, economic think tank, not a medical research organization. I'd trust medical professionals over capitalists when it comes to my health.

Greg

[Chik]

Remember that the Great Barrington Declaration was issued from a self-described, free-market, economic think tank, not a medical research organization.

Are we talking about the same thing? I'm referring to this.

I had a quick read and note a couple of things. One is that they seem to be opposing a mass, long term lockdown, but where is this happening or being suggested?

The other is that I think we have a list of diseases for which we would not have achieved herd immunity if it weren't for vaccines, say, polio. The declaration doesn't even attempt to claim that Covid-19 is unlike all those others where we didn't achieve herd immunity through mass infection.

What am I missing?

[gregl]

Are we talking about the same thing? I'm referring to this.

Yes, we are talking about the same thing. Here's more background:

https://www.aier.org/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...erts-1.5137679

I suggest reading about the AIER and then deciding if you want a conservative economic group to make your health decisions. Take a look at the photos and videos from the AIER regarding the declaration. No social distance and hardly a mask in sight. IMO, just more propaganda from the wealthy to jumpstart the economy. Got to prop up Wall Street. What's another 100-200K dead. It's the price of "economic freedom..."

Greg

[Chik]

Yes, we are talking about the same thing. Here's more background:

https://www.aier.org/
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...erts-1.5137679

I suggest reading about the AIER and then deciding if you want a conservative economic group to make your health decisions. Take a look at the photos and videos from the AIER regarding the declaration. No social distance and hardly a mask in sight. IMO, just more propaganda from the wealthy to jumpstart the economy. Got to prop up Wall Street. What's another 100-200K dead. It's the price of "economic freedom..."

Greg

Thanks. Your point about the supposed link to AIER (beyond hosting the event) is worth raising in the other thread. I'm more interested in the substance of the declaration itself, in this thread, if that makes sense.

[echappist]

Thanks. Your point about the supposed link to AIER (beyond hosting the event) is worth raising in the other thread. I'm more interested in the substance of the declaration itself, in this thread, if that makes sense.

I don't how familiar you are with American politics (as you are in Belgium), but think tanks like AIER really doesn't care about the substance and only cares about how to massage whatever data it has in order to support its objectives. Sometimes, it doesn't even have data, so it's just a lot of baseless speculation. But it will present that propaganda in a highly polished form to give it a veneer of respectability.

In the instant case, really not much when it comes to substance. Old Upton Sinclair quote works well here (as it does whenever there is strong self-interest and expediency at play).

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.

Having them understand what herd immunity means, what it would entail (as in, long-term immunity as stated above by @gregl), how many people will have to contract it first, how many of those who do contract it will have the severe form of the effects (aka long-haul), etc. would create such a ginormous hole in its argument that the think tank would much prefer not addressing any one of these salient points and instead convince you to take them at their words. It's a extraordinarily cynical exercise, but it pays the bills. Some really rich folks (who want business to operate at any cost) needs to have their opinions heard and presented in a way that's polished and has veneer of respectability, so they bank-roll think tanks to do their bidding. These think tanks are no better than Xinhua "News" Agency or Pravda, as they are agenda-driven manipulators.

If one wants to see how actual responsible center-right governments behave, one doesn't have to look far: Prime Minister Rutte of the Netherlands is center-right, as is Chancellor Merkel of Germany. Conservatism and free-market don't have to be the way they are in the U.S., but sadly, both have gone off the deep end here in the U.S.

[Chik]

I'm no stranger to the US lobbying sector albeit only in DC, not the specific one in Mass.

That aside, I think you are both agreeing with me that despite the letter being issued by some prominent names in epidemiology and related fields, the substance of it is a bit dodgy, to put it mildly.

[Mark Kelly]

I
In the instant case, really not much when it comes to substance.

snip

These think tanks are no better than Xinhua "News" Agency or Pravda, as they are agenda-driven manipulators.

Again with the lucid observations. Thanks.

[echappist]

Man these clowns really can't help themselves.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-bananas-covid

The aforementioned Great Barrington Declaration contains numerous dubious signature including a certain "Cominic Dummings". I believe that's Dominic Cummings' long lost evil twin, the one that actually drove ~500 miles round trip from London to Durham and back, thereby breaking lockdown rules in the process. Not that we've located the true culprit, we all owe Cummings an apology.

[Chik]

Man these clowns really can't help themselves.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-bananas-covid

The aforementioned Great Barrington Declaration contains numerous dubious signature including a certain "Cominic Dummings". I believe that's Dominic Cummings' long lost evil twin, the one that actually drove ~500 miles round trip from London to Durham and back, thereby breaking lockdown rules in the process. Not that we've located the true culprit, we all owe Cummings an apology.

I would think that those parody signatures were not left by people who support the declaration, but that's just my guess.

Since spring, Gupta from Oxford has been consistently expressing views that are inconsistent with the mainstream scientific and medical community, which might make one wonder if she knows something others don't. To me, what she says is usually, if not always, counterintuitive, but what do I know? Which in turn is why I phrased my OP about the declaration the way I did.

(Similarly, I am not qualified to know if the mainstream are correct, particularly given that we are still learning about the virus, but personally, I would err on the side of being too cautious and have a difficult time sympathising with people who constantly moan about having to wear a mask.)

[ides1056]

I talked with a doctor friend yesterday who worked with another doctor who has permanently lost her sense of smell because he olfactory cortex atrophied because of a Covid infection.

Just an interesting data point.

[echappist]

I would think that those parody signatures were not left by people who support the declaration, but that's just my guess.

Since spring, Gupta from Oxford has been consistently expressing views that are inconsistent with the mainstream scientific and medical community, which might make one wonder if she knows something others don't. To me, what she says is usually, if not always, counterintuitive, but what do I know? Which in turn is why I phrased my OP about the declaration the way I did.

(Similarly, I am not qualified to know if the mainstream are correct, particularly given that we are still learning about the virus, but personally, I would err on the side of being too cautious and have a difficult time sympathising with people who constantly moan about having to wear a mask.)

I think the issue here is that the organizers wanted a large number of signatures and therefore made it very easy for just about anyone to sign. They cynically thought that a large number of signatures would be more "convincing" and hoped that no one would notice, but instead got caught for their amateurish approach.

[Chik]

I've been catching up on save-for-later media and came across this interview with Dr Fauci. He answers questions in plain English so people like me can understand, and what I found interesting was his discussion on the vaccines.

I would skip the intro and go to 4:38.

Some highlights:
(4:38-10:44): An overview of the current pandemic
(10:51-13:03): How do you think we got into a discussion where it became either lock down or open up everything?
(13:04-14:59): Is some of the divisiveness starting to melt?
(15:00-23:05): Timeline for the vaccine. Is there optimism? Are we going to have a vaccine? How confident are we to be able to protect older people?
(28:57-32:26): How do we invest against the next unknown pathogen?
(32:30-35:56): Shekinah Fashaw, PhD student Health Services Research Brown University School of Public Health, asks: We are seeing two pandemics colliding. Racism and COVID-19. We are seeing that they are having a disproportionate impact on black and brown communities. What can we do to change this?
(38:48-40:03): Margaret Elam, MPA from Watson Institute, asks: In light of the current pandemic, what will government intervention look like?
(42:55-43:43): Loc Truong, Assistant Vice President for Campus Life Engagement, asks: Have you had a day off since this pandemic began?

[htwoopup]

So the NY Governor and the NYC mayor have talked about where cases are going up. And it is troubling.

What is more troubling to me is that the kid of one my dear friends works in the ICU at a Long Island hospital which was NOT called out as an area that was spiking and she told me today that they are spiking big time and she has a 20 patient increase in a few days (from a base of 2 in ICU due to Covid) and has a 40 year old with no underlying that she is sure won't make it. And the kid of another friend is a resident in an East Side hospital ICU that had overflow tents set up in Central Park first wave and he said they are filling up rapidly since Thursday and it is coming from Harlem (not singled out by the governor or mayor) and Queens (a couple of sections of Queens were mentioned publicly).

So, my point is that what all have been saying about another wave seems to be true.

But my question is, why is it that even though NY has been great about transparency does it not seem to be reported/ publicized yet that it is accelerating more rapidly and widely than what the public statements have led me to hear?

[jimcav]

So the NY Governor and the NYC mayor have talked about where cases are going up. And it is troubling.

What is more troubling to me is that the kid of one my dear friends works in the ICU at a Long Island hospital which was NOT called out as an area that was spiking and she told me today that they are spiking big time and she has a 20 patient increase in a few days (from a base of 2 in ICU due to Covid) and has a 40 year old with no underlying that she is sure won't make it. And the kid of another friend is a resident in an East Side hospital ICU that had overflow tents set up in Central Park first wave and he said they are filling up rapidly since Thursday and it is coming from Harlem (not singled out by the governor or mayor) and Queens (a couple of sections of Queens were mentioned publicly).

So, my point is that what all have been saying about another wave seems to be true.

But my question is, why is it that even though NY has been great about transparency does it not seem to be reported/ publicized yet that it is accelerating more rapidly and widely than what the public statements have led me to hear?

If NY is like CA; when we had serious flu seasons, and I had to report the local county area's flu case #s to my CO, there was always a lag with weekend reporting. IF you are getting 1st hand info of an increase that will be tabulated/reported over the wknd, that may be why it won't hit the "news" until Monday or Tuesday. My best and only guess (still just a guess)
jim

[j44ke]

I also think that NY may be one of those states relying on faxes as there is no integrated computer system between hospitals and state agencies.

[BBB]

Faxes? Really?

[Chik]

That's how everything in Japan works. Faxes. Just awesome.

[j44ke]

Because of the way states procure technology and the length of time it takes to move a purchase through the bureaucracy, obsolescence is almost guaranteed. The only way to get data out of one system and into another one is to manually enter it. Thus faxes.

Our doctor can renew prescriptions for us no matter where we are in the US. But if we need an MRI or a blood test at a hospital or affiliated test lab, very often that has to be a faxed order, at least initially.

[echappist]

There's also HIPPA issue. Email/anything internet is deemed unsecure, on facsimile it is.

That said, some federal agencies accept encrypted email in lieu of fax, so perhaps that could be adopted elsewhere?

[monadnocky]

There's also HIPPA issue. Email/anything internet is deemed unsecure, on facsimile it is.

That said, some federal agencies accept encrypted email in lieu of fax, so perhaps that could be adopted elsewhere?

yep.
I fax routinely. It's the one form of transmitting PHI that I feel completely secure in using. Given some minor caveats, communication by FAX is always HIPAA compliant. No issues. May be stone age, but it's still used much more frequently than you would think.