Covid19

[vertical_doug]

I followed the US State Departments latest advisory and repatriated. Before I get flamed, I am about the only idiot who flew from a less infected area, London, to a more infected area NYC. I am now in Bronxville at the edge of the containment zone. Since I expected I may have to fly eventually, I had already isolated myself for 8 days, and that is after having switch daily routines previously to minimize social interactions.

Instead of the normal arrival at terminal 7, we arrived at terminal 8 and were processed. We had a health questionaire, temperatures were taken. In addition to the questionaire, another agent asked us specific health and travel questions verbally. We were instructed to quarantine for 14 days, take daily temperature etc.


Daily departures from Heathrow T5 on 2 boards. Normally, from T5 alone, 25 planes depart hourly.



Security screening. This is just before noon , Wednesday.


Most passengers are wearing facemasks, although some are not. Many are wearing gloves, goggles and facemaks. And the people in the homemade hazmat suits are for the most part Chinese students returning home. When they arrive at the airport in Beijing, they are processed and placed into a mandatory state run quarantine facility for 14 days depending on their final destination.





My jumbo had a total of 35 passengers. I was sure to thank the crew members for working and getting me home.

I have been to some of the worst places on the planet in my days, and I must say, flying yesterday was stressful. I felt like I was in a bad Charleston Heston SciFi movies from the 70's.



I can say they are trying hard. Now its up to each of us to do our part. I apologize in advance as my posts probably turn into the usually peak winter crazy cabin fever over the next two weeks

[Too Tall]

Glad you are back. Indeed, strange times.

[Saab2000]

Are there any experts in manufacturing here? Can somebody elaborate on what goes into a company like Tesla or GM (among others) who are changing some manufacturing capacity from automobiles to ventilators? How does this work?

These factories are highly automated and use robots programmed to perform specific motions and tasks with millimeter precision. How does that translate to making ventilators?

Anyone in manufacturing able to shed some light on how this would work?

[thollandpe]

Are there any experts in manufacturing here? Can somebody elaborate on what goes into a company like Tesla or GM (among others) who are changing some manufacturing capacity from automobiles to ventilators? How does this work?

These factories are highly automated and use robots programmed to perform specific motions and tasks with millimeter precision. How does that translate to making ventilators?

Anyone in manufacturing able to shed some light on how this would work?

GM and Medical Equipment Maker Prepping to Make 200,000 Ventilators

Securing the supply chain must be a huge challenge. What would be the time to get these up and running, and develop some kind of quality and test process?

I worked for Pratt & Whitney when the US Navy decided that it owned the design of the GE 404 engine (for the F-18) and that Pratt should be able to produce it. Theoretically possible that anyone can produce such a complex machine, given all the plans and specs, and having the experience and facilities to produce very similar machines. In reality, it was a bear of an undertaking.

[Chik]

I suppose this was inevitable, but the bug is mutating. Of the 5 strains identified, the one in Europe and the NY/Northeast seems to be stronger and spread more quickly than the original Hubei strain. Now, China and Korea are importing the new strains with carriers returning home from abroad.

International expansion of a novel SARS-CoV-2 mutant | medRxiv

The full text for the scientists in the audience: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...lsOLOeHM99v0S8

[Too Tall]

I suppose this was inevitable, but the bug is mutating. Of the 5 strains identified, the one in Europe and the NY/Northeast seems to be stronger and spread more quickly than the original Hubei strain. Now, China and Korea are importing the new strains with carriers returning home from abroad.

International expansion of a novel SARS-CoV-2 mutant | medRxiv

The full text for the scientists in the audience: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...lsOLOeHM99v0S8

Thanks for that. I do not read it the same as you. The read I get is that the European prevalent strain modifies how it enters the cell but the science indicates no read if this is for the positive or negative. Good that somebody is on this.

What I did find interesting is: "Group 4 ORF3a mutant had reached the West Coast of the 74 United States (Orange County, California) by January 22, 2020 at the latest. "

[Chik]

Thanks for that. I do not read it the same as you. The read I get is that the European prevalent strain modifies how it enters the cell but the science indicates no read if this is for the positive or negative. Good that somebody is on this.

What I did find interesting is: "Group 4 ORF3a mutant had reached the West Coast of the 74 United States (Orange County, California) by January 22, 2020 at the latest. "

It kinda went (right) over my head to be honest :). But yes, it's good that they are onto figuring out each strain's functionality etc.

[Mark Kelly]

I'm with Toots.

Virus genome data from France indicate that SARS-CoV-2 strains carrying ORF3a:c.752gGt>gTt often have a S:c.1099Gtc>Ttc mutation in their S gene, which interacts with ACE2 to mediate viral entry into its host cells3

The gobbledygook is a mutation description: in Open Reading Frame 3a at codon 752 the sequence guanine Guanine thymine has changed to guanine Thymine thymine (the actual alteration is capitalised for obvious reasons). Genomes with this alteration often have another mutation in this case the S gene at codon 1099 Guanine thymine cytosine is changed to Thymine thymine cytosine.

The S gene codes for the spike glycoprotein which is responsible for attachment to the ACE2 (angiotensin converting enzyme -2) protein on the surface of cells. The mutation will change the amino acid coded at position 1099 from a valine to a phenylalanine.

The paper doesn't say whether this single point mutation alters the function of the glycoprotein. The two amino acids are very different (V is small and linear, P is larger and has a benzene ring) but that doesn't tell you whether this changes the conformation significantly.


Edit: I think I got this right, my molecular biology classes were over 30 years ago when this stuff was just beginning and the idea of being able to sequence whole genomes overnight was a pipe dream.

[vertical_doug]

I'm with Toots.



The gobbledygook is a mutation description: in Open Reading Frame 3a at codon 752 the sequence guanine Guanine thymine has changed to guanine Thymine thymine (the actual alteration is capitalised for obvious reasons). Genomes with this alteration often have another mutation in this case the S gene at codon 1099 Guanine thymine cytosine is changed to Thymine thymine cytosine.

The S gene codes for the spike glycoprotein which is responsible for attachment to the ACE2 (angiotensin converting enzyme -2) protein on the surface of cells. The mutation will change the amino acid coded at position 1099 from a valine to a phenylalanine.

The paper doesn't say whether this single point mutation alters the function of the glycoprotein. The two amino acids are very different (V is small and linear, P is larger and has a benzene ring) but that doesn't tell you whether this changes the conformation significantly.


Edit: I think I got this right, my molecular biology classes were over 30 years ago when this stuff was just beginning and the idea of being able to sequence whole genomes overnight was a pipe dream.

It's only about 29k bases , so even denovo, relative child's play for people.

[King Of Dirk]

I'll give you ten to one on that. IMO the biggest determinant will be how effectively community spread is contained.

There's an interesting passage in the WHO report on Wuhan that praises the Chinese response and notes that this is partially due to cultural factors such as willingness to share. The US mythology of rugged individualism may prove to be deadly in the absence of superheroes.

Not sure how I'd propose my wager, but I'm willing to believe nations with extreme disregard for human rights will prove more effective in containing community spread. Nothing like welding doors and windows shut to keep the streets clear. Statistics can be further improved by aggressive treatment; it's impossible to die from the virus if Dear Leader has you shot instead.

[vertical_doug]

Not sure how I'd propose my wager, but I'm willing to believe nations with extreme disregard for human rights will prove more effective in containing community spread. Nothing like welding doors and windows shut to keep the streets clear. Statistics can be further improved by aggressive treatment; it's impossible to die from the virus if Dear Leader has you shot instead.

You forgot the part about kicking down doors to take you temperature and administer a test.

and tracking your cell phone to see if you are observing social distancing. If not, gonna have to arrest you...

Honestly, in the US, if we wanted, we could use mobile data striped of personal information to see where more than 10 people are gathered, and then raid the spot. It is trivial really.

(I'd be a ruthless dictator)

[Chik]

Belgium: A limit of 50 km has been introduced for bike rides. I'm not at all sure what that cap does.

France: Police Nationale are on Strava notifying people in breach of the ban on cycling, notifying them of the fines owed through the comment field on Strava.

Japan: Not surprisingly, the government didn't even have a Covid19 task force and are now putting a team together. A government panel of experts stated today that infections in Japan appear highly likely to be "rampant". Also, it appears that the government cannot order a lockdown legally unless they first declare a state of emergency. In the meantime, all they can do is to request people to make various measures like working from home and social distancing. Similarly, the school closures were not based on a government directive, only a request. And, they are set to re-open next month...

[Matthew Strongin]

France: Police Nationale are on Strava notifying people in breach of the ban on cycling, notifying them of the fines owed through the comment field on Strava.

@Lionel if you set your profile to private they won't be able to give you tickets.

[King Of Dirk]

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts | New Scientist

Ferguson dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead in the UK to 20,000.

Here's to a glimmer of hope. Too early to celebrate, but I'm jonesing for good news and cautiously optimistic.


ETA: 20,000 is still 20,000 too many. I don't mean to imply 20K dead is in any way "good news."

[Chik]

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts | New Scientist

Ferguson dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead in the UK to 20,000.

Here's to a glimmer of hope. Too early to celebrate, but I'm jonesing for good news and cautiously optimistic.


ETA: 20,000 is still 20,000 too many. I don't mean to imply 20K dead is in any way "good news."

Boffins at Oxford disagree with their Imperial colleagues: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

[vertical_doug]

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts | New Scientist

Ferguson dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead in the UK to 20,000.

Here's to a glimmer of hope. Too early to celebrate, but I'm jonesing for good news and cautiously optimistic.


ETA: 20,000 is still 20,000 too many. I don't mean to imply 20K dead is in any way "good news."

I don't think it is a disagreement with Ferguson, I think it is the misinterpretation of his 'CAVEAT'.

He is basing this on prolonged social distancing and isolation until a vaccine is available in `12-18 mo. ' He is saying this economic impact will be in years.

The practicality of a prolonged period of social distancing is were the assumption will break.

[thollandpe]

The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model <snip> offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday: UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts | New Scientist

Ferguson dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead in the UK to 20,000.

Boffins at Oxford disagree with their Imperial colleagues: Subscribe to read | Financial Times

I don't think it is a disagreement with Ferguson, I think it is the misinterpretation of his 'CAVEAT'.

He is basing this on prolonged social distancing and isolation until a vaccine is available in '12-18 mo.'

The practicality of a prolonged period of social distancing is were the assumption will break.

Is that saying that the social distancing variable could change the death toll in the UK by more than 400,000? That's roughly twice the military and civilian deaths suffered by the UK in WWII.

[Tristan]

Are there any experts in manufacturing here? Can somebody elaborate on what goes into a company like Tesla or GM (among others) who are changing some manufacturing capacity from automobiles to ventilators? How does this work?

These factories are highly automated and use robots programmed to perform specific motions and tasks with millimeter precision. How does that translate to making ventilators?

Anyone in manufacturing able to shed some light on how this would work?

You're a pilot, right? It would be similar to learning to fly a new type of plane - you posses a bunch of skills, tools, and knowledge and with a bit of time you'll be able to apply those to the new aircraft. With training you'd be able to master that aircraft, but if you were on a type you didn't know how to fly and the pilot died chances are that despite not knowing the ins and outs you'd be able to land it safely.

Manufacturing is the same thing. The vast bulk of equipment is multi-purpose stuff which each company will have modified or trained to perform a specific task for their product. They'll have the knowledge to re-purpose their equipment to make something different.

Medical equipment is much like aircraft - very slow to evolve because of the regulatory requirements. There doesn't appear to be much in a ventilator which is difficult to make so it's likely the companies who traditionally make them have figured out some efficiencies in production, and in navigating the regulatory environment. Under normal circumstances another company (like Tesla) cannot come along and start cranking out ventilators at a competitive price because they haven't invested the time in finding those efficiencies, however at the moment that's not relevant. Who cares if Tesla is 20% less efficient? That's still way more ventilators than they used to produce.

[vertical_doug]

Is that saying that the social distancing variable could change the death toll in the UK by more than 400,000? That's roughly twice the military and civilian deaths suffered by the UK in WWII.

Yes. The gamble the UKGOV is explicitly making is they can spread the peak out over time so they do not overwhelm NHS. If they overwhelm NHS and the peak and hospitalizations is too steep, you run out of facilities and the outcomes worsen dramatically and mortality rapidly increases.

It seems he is arguing suppression is the only feasible policy action. The paper is pretty chilling in my opinion. I don't think the news article correctly states what the paper is arguing.

Here is a link to the paper
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

His worse case is 510,000 UK and 2,200,000 USA.

[Too Tall]

yes. The gamble the ukgov is explicitly making is they can spread the peak out over time so they do not overwhelm nhs. If they overwhelm nhs and the peak and hospitalizations is too steep, you run out of facilities and the outcomes worsen dramatically and mortality rapidly increases and than there will be a vote of no confidence.

it seems he is arguing suppression is the only policy action.

Here is a link to the paper
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

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