Covid19

[Too Tall]

I've been researching immune response after a positive test with symptoms and subsequent recovery. CDC says:

Q: Can people who recover from COVID-19 be infected again?

A: The immune response to COVID-19 is not yet understood. Patients with MERS-CoV infection are unlikely to be re-infected shortly after they recover, but it is not yet known whether similar immune protection will be observed for patients with COVID-19.

[SpeedyChix]

Michigan has joined the list of states with confirmed cases.
On a happy note, our local trail and parks millage passed in yesterday's election.

Locally, MSU suspended in-person classes until April 20.
Coronavirus: MSU suspending in-person classes until April 2

[Saab2000]

On a happy note, our local trail and parks millage passed in yesterday's election.

Best news of the day!

[j44ke]

I understand that but I still think it has very limited effects if two members of the same family are still in contact while one is still leaving a "normal life" while the others are not. Sort of the weakest link That is unless you completely stop doing what people do in a normal family, i.e. kissing and all that.

My impression is that perfection is not the goal. So you will have individuals who may or may not be infected leaving the house, but you won't have all four people in a family out and about. Didn't sound effective to me, but effectiveness in this case is judged with respect to inevitability. If the disease is infectious enough that eventually everyone will have been infected at some level, health officials want to stretch out "eventually" into as long a time line as possible. That way relatively limited resources can work more effectively, treating and managing a smaller number of infected individuals, albeit over a longer period of time.

[sk_tle]

Yes limiting the physical contacts of normal family life is critical as well...

Good luck doing that when you have small kids :D

[marley]

You may not understand the concept of social distancing, or feel that it's effective, but it's not nothing.

"

who knew that I was a leading practitioner of social isolating:

self_isolate.png

[guido]

Good luck doing that when you have small kids :D

It opens up what is called a "teaching moment". Life is going to be a lot different for kids than what we experienced. They need to start understanding that now...

[vertical_doug]

My impression is that perfection is not the goal. So you will have individuals who may or may not be infected leaving the house, but you won't have all four people in a family out and about. Didn't sound effective to me, but effectiveness in this case is judged with respect to inevitability. If the disease is infectious enough that eventually everyone will have been infected at some level, health officials want to stretch out "eventually" into as long a time line as possible. That way relatively limited resources can work more effectively, treating and managing a smaller number of infected individuals, albeit over a longer period of time.

TO be brutal here, society can make a choice:

Go hard containment like China, or suffer a lot of deaths over a prolong period of time.

Since the primary driver appears to be not hurting the economy as opposed to helping people, I think they take the path of mitigation. Unfortunately, I think that is the path to large economic ruin and more deaths. Death by a thousand cuts so to speak. The hard containment, while it will certainly crash the economy immediately, will be better in the long run.

[Chik]

TO be brutal here, society can make a choice:

Go hard containment like China, or suffer a lot of deaths over a prolong period of time.

Since the primary driver appears to be not hurting the economy as opposed to helping people, I think they take the path of mitigation. Unfortunately, I think that is the path to large economic ruin and more deaths. Death by a thousand cuts so to speak. The hard containment, while it will certainly crash the economy immediately, will be better in the long run.

Agreed.

[Blue Jays]

"...Go hard containment like China, or suffer a lot of deaths over a prolong period of time..."

Good luck convincing your elderly aunt and uncle they simply need to peacefully load themselves into the boxcar.

[vertical_doug]

Good luck convincing your elderly aunt and uncle they simply need to peacefully load themselves into the boxcar.

I think you are not understanding the situation. I like my aunts and uncles. By going hard containment, I am putting their welfare before the economy.

By doing hard containment, China was able to drop the infection growth from 20% to <1% in 17 days. South Korea while not going all out as China, did go very hard in isolating the centers early. They are almost there.

R0 > 2, you need to starve the virus of new hosts.

(your boxcar reference is really offensive. )

[j44ke]

Yeah, not sure what is going to work best.

I do know plenty of people who are going to seriously freak out if Trump announces restrictions nationally on freedom of movement and calls out the national guard, even if the epidemic is a legitimate reason to do so.

[davids]

Good luck convincing your elderly aunt and uncle they simply need to peacefully load themselves into the boxcar.

What the utter hell? Who said anything about denying care to the sick?

I read doug's point being about choosing infection control over preserving the health of the economy.

[Blue Jays]

So then describe your "hard containment" idea plus how President Trump and Congress would implement such a plan without pushback.

[EDS]

So then describe your "hard containment" idea plus how President Trump and Congress would implement such a plan without pushback.

There will be pushback/second guessing regardless of what the government does. Our elected leaders will be judged on their actions and inactions. Given the actions in Italy now, it seems like all the countries that have been hit hard by the virus of instituted some major containment plans. Sadly I think the US is in the hot seat now.

[vertical_doug]

So then describe your "hard containment" idea plus how President Trump and Congress would implement such a plan without pushback.

Simple, exactly what the chinese did. Close schools, close transport. One person in a household is allowed out to buy groceries etc every other day. Because China did it early, they only had to do it on Wuhan/Hubei. If they waited another week, they'd be like Italy trying to close an entire country.

South Korea has been trying the same in Daegu. Not quite there yet. However, the South Koreans are doing massive testing to quarantine people early and stop the spread of disease. So until US can conduct massive testing, you have limited options.

China started travel bans around Jan 23 on 10mm people , when reported cases were 643 infected and 25 dead. It upped the ante to 50mm a few days later. It slowed the infection to 1% growth on Feb 23 when 79,434 infected and 2664 dead.

Italy started last week March 6 in Lombardy, when infections 4636 and 197 dead. Yesterday they upped to entire country and today they are closing stores.

That is what is hard containment. So with US at 1000 infections , clock is ticking...

It's not full martial law, but in coordination with state gov, national guard, doable. Cuomo is already trying in NY. He could use a little help.

Look, I absolutely hate Trump, but this is absolutely necessary. Choose life. Not the dollar.

Until you can conduct massive testing, you should be quarantining cities and restricting travel in areas with infections.

[crumpton]

does hard containment work?
Blues vs. Greys - Big Think

[vertical_doug]

does hard containment work?
Blues vs. Greys - Big Think

so testing is our equivalent of cats.

[Blue Jays]

"...There will be pushback/second guessing regardless of what the government does..."

Thanks for the gracious post. You are naturally correct. There will certainly be significant pushback.
We are a nation that stretches as far north as Alaska, as far south as Puerto Rico, as far east as the Virgin Islands, and as far west as Guam. We are not comparatively small and contiguous like Italy nor totalitarian like China. It is indeed a remarkably complex issue.

[guido]

Is this a an instance when you really want to test that "live free or die (from a deadly virus)" thing? Are people going to insist that it is fake news as they wheel the sick and dying from their community and families?