Covid19

[johnmdesigner]

We went out to our happy hour place in Manhattan this evening.
An old man and his equally old wife were sitting near us. His voice reminded me of Zell in "Marathon Man" and as I was thinking this he took out a small metal pill box and tapped it on the bar releasing all the pills on the not so clean surface like the nazi diamonds spilling out onto the glass table. He scooped them up into the case and proceeded to do it again.
I think everyone has already lost their minds.

[AngryScientist]

Just checked in at SFO for my FRA flight.

46 total passengers on a 777.

Lionel,

I'm just curious, is this strictly business travel or personal, or some combination?

I work for a Fortune 100 company and we have restricted ALL business travel. Just gauging what's going on on a corporate level.

[johnmdesigner]

We had a trip to southern Spain with a few days in Naples planned for the end of this month. I have slowly watched it unravel to the point that our plans are completely ruined. Same with the 401K.
On my second gin and tonic this evening and feeling much better.
Have several friends in the closed zones of Northern Italy and family in Shanghai. So I know what's coming.

[Lionel]

Lionel,

I'm just curious, is this strictly business travel or personal, or some combination?

I work for a Fortune 100 company and we have restricted ALL business travel. Just gauging what's going on on a corporate level.

I commute back and forth between France and the bay area every 2 weeks or so. So you can call it business travel. I am supposed to come back in 12 days. We will see what happens.

[zachateseverything]

I work for a Fortune 100 company and we have restricted ALL business travel. Just gauging what's going on on a corporate level.

The fortune 500 company I work for did the same. I might not even be allowed to drive to Michigan for three days of training at the end of the month.

[bironi]

Hard to decide whether New Rochelle is the Manhattan of this week or not. Would the close Manhattan? How would that even work (several Hollywood movies aside)?

We are going upstate this weekend, and my wife's firm has encouraged work-from-home. Should we just stay? On one hand, yes. On the other hand, no world class hospitals.

Please stay upstate and post pics everyday of your new home.
It's also a pretty good quarantine spot.

[Mabouya]

Same with the 401K.

Bummer - what's your retirement time horizon?

[johnmdesigner]

March 19.
The year of the rat really sucks.

Bummer - what's your retirement time horizon?

[Mabouya]

March 19.
The year of the rat really sucks.

Ouch - that's brutal. (But congratulations just the same.)

I hope you dialed back on the equities as the date got closer.

I'm about 2 years away. When the time comes I'm thinking pretty seriously of putting some of my $ into an immediate annuity, so that + my pension from work are around 75% of my "minimum desired" income. Assuming neither of those go bust, that would help insulate me a bit from the ups and downs of the stock market.

[johnmdesigner]

I live close to Columbia University.
It closed classes for 2 days.
I walked up today. The only public space that was officially closed (that I could access) was the gym.
I can see the student lounge of Barnard from the street. It was filled with students.
So I really don't understand what this shutdown accomplished.

[brc]

As much as I'm scared about COVID-19, I'm more concerned with the rise in racism and xenophobia against people of Asian descent. The Asian community around the world has been suffering dearly, from blatant physical attacks in Europe to microaggression here in the States against Asian Americans. There is no excuse for ignorance and hate, yet this outbreak has directly refueled anti-Asian or anti-Chinese sentiment. As The National Council of Asian Pacific Americans (NCAPA) states, "while the coronavirus represents a legitimate public health concern, it is not a green light to target Asian Americans and Asian immigrants with racism and hate."

[johnmdesigner]

So now there is a "containment zone" around New Rochelle but the Mayor just made an announcement that no one is being restricted from leaving the area. So what is the point of this?

[Blue Jays]

"...As much as I'm scared about COVID-19, I'm more concerned with the rise in racism and xenophobia against people of Asian descent..."

What? C'mon, we are all in this together.
I have seen no such thing while out and about.

[sk_tle]

I live close to Columbia University.
It closed classes for 2 days.
I walked up today. The only public space that was officially closed (that I could access) was the gym.
I can see the student lounge of Barnard from the street. It was filled with students.
So I really don't understand what this shutdown accomplished.

Nothing.

The things is there are two worlds living alongside, those that are in panicking mode and would like to live like hermites to stop the spread of the virus. The other part that live a normal life, still use the public transports, go in the pubs, attend classes / sports events, dance in the nightclubs while sharing drinks and cigarettes/joints. But those both worlds aren't hermetically sealed as you can have both type within the same family, sharing and meeting.

So in the end unless you send the army to ensure that everybody is sequestrated at home for 60 days (and I guess it would be more dangerous than the coronavirus) any form of quarantine is quite useless in my opinion.

[vertical_doug]

As much as I'm scared about COVID-19, I'm more concerned with the rise in racism and xenophobia against people of Asian descent. The Asian community around the world has been suffering dearly, from blatant physical attacks in Europe to microaggression here in the States against Asian Americans. There is no excuse for ignorance and hate, yet this outbreak has directly refueled anti-Asian or anti-Chinese sentiment. As The National Council of Asian Pacific Americans (NCAPA) states, "while the coronavirus represents a legitimate public health concern, it is not a green light to target Asian Americans and Asian immigrants with racism and hate."

You mean when the President retweet's a supporters tweet calling C19 the China virus and then writing we need the wall more than ever.

[vertical_doug]

Ouch - that's brutal. (But congratulations just the same.)

I hope you dialed back on the equities as the date got closer.

I'm about 2 years away. When the time comes I'm thinking pretty seriously of putting some of my $ into an immediate annuity, so that + my pension from work are around 75% of my "minimum desired" income. Assuming neither of those go bust, that would help insulate me a bit from the ups and downs of the stock market.

Monday's SPX close was the same as June 3. 2019. I don't think you were counting on the last 12 months of gains to fund your retirement. I assume you are somewhat asset allocated, so your long duration bonds have appreciated greatly with the fall in rates. I think the 30 yr price is up close 20% (par to 119 1/2 ) which will help offset some of your loss in equities. Rates look to go lower approaching zero in both 10s and 30s. If the equity market continues to sell off, let's say the 30 yr rate goes to 0.50%. The price will be 141. So a 41% price gain. At that point, you really need to start selling your long bonds and buy equities. SPX yield is 2%. You'll be better off in the long run. Even the 10 yr has rallied 8% in price and at zero, the price will be 114. Up another 6%.

This is not the end of the world. You just need to rethink things. zero bound rates really change the investment paradigm.

[Saab2000]

Assuming neither of those go bust, that would help insulate me a bit from the ups and downs of the stock market.

I would not make that assumption. Where do you imagine they keep the money you give them?

My retirement funding right now (and I imagine most peoples' retirement funding) is highly dependent on stock markets. There's almost no way to avoid this without direct real estate investment or keeping it as cash.

For now I'm doing absolutely nothing with my retirement planning but clearly the past month or so is quite unnerving. But nothing is free of risk, including an annuity. Read the fine print.

[thollandpe]

It closed classes for 2 days.
So I really don't understand what this shutdown accomplished.

Nothing.

So in the end unless you send the army to ensure that everybody is sequestrated at home for 60 days (and I guess it would be more dangerous than the coronavirus) any form of quarantine is quite useless in my opinion.

You may not understand the concept of social distancing, or feel that it's effective, but it's not nothing.

Social distancing could buy U.S. valuable time against coronavirus - Washington Post
Coronavirus: The difference between quarantine, isolation, and social distancing, explained - Vox

"The best way to prevent a catastrophic explosion of cases in the next few weeks, many experts think, is to break potential chains of transmission by preventing infected people from coming in close contact with healthy ones, whether it means canceling conferences or relying on individual decisions to avoid crowded public transportation or postpone weddings.

The goal isn’t to stop the virus; not anymore. It is to slow it down."

[sk_tle]

I understand that but I still think it has very limited effects if two members of the same family are still in contact while one is still leaving a "normal life" while the others are not. Sort of the weakest link That is unless you completely stop doing what people do in a normal family, i.e. kissing and all that.

[guido]

I understand that but I still think it has very limited effects if two members of the same family are still in contact while one is still leaving a "normal life" while the others are not. Sort of the weakest link That is unless you completely stop doing what people do in a normal family, i.e. kissing and all that.

Yes limiting the physical contacts of normal family life is critical as well...