Who will challenge Trump? Who you like?

[happycampyer]

I can't answer that yet to the OP. What I will say is that nobody has declared a VP and we are only a fraction of the way to what could be a brokered convention. Should THAT happen all bets are off and I'd pick Biden/Abrams.

#leavingformontanasoongonnabeadentalflosstycoon

either that, or a mental toss flycoon...

[vertical_doug]

I can't answer that yet to the OP. What I will say is that nobody has declared a VP and we are only a fraction of the way to what could be a brokered convention. Should THAT happen all bets are off and I'd pick Biden/Abrams.

#leavingformontanasoongonnabeadentalflosstycoon

In this scenario, Trump is re-elected. This is just a variation of 2016 when grass-roots dems felt the deck was stacked in Hillary's favor and did not turn up to vote in November. Hillary chiming in on Bernie the other week just re-enforces this point.

The anti-thesis of Trump is Mike Bloomberg. Fiscally prudent and socially liberal....Trump is fiscally irresponsible and social conservative.

The irony here is I'd expect to see Trump attack Bloomberg's NDA settlement with former employees....

[davids]

jerk, you're complaining about caricatures of Sanders. It's understandable, because that's all the mainstream media repeats. But it is a caricature, and it's coming from media that gets its money from Wall Street, big pharma, big banks, big weapons makers, big energy, big insurance, and so on.

I don't think it's a caricature, and I'll share my experience seeing Sanders speak to a national conference of Americans who are advocating for our government to support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

He spoke to the attendees in 2017 and delivered a stump speech on economic justice and corporate malfeasance. WTF? Totally tone-deaf and left me seeing him as an ideologue who views every problem as an economic problem.

He came back last year and this time he told us about his deep history and connection with Israel, and how his Jewish upbringing instilled in him a deep empathy with oppressed peoples and a passion for social justice. Hey! That's the speech I wanted! But now it was being delivered by a 78 year old who is recovering from a heart attack.

So he's a better candidate now, but also a much, much worse one.

And even if he wins, he'd be facing a Congress that will not be with his radical agenda. So I can't get behind him.

My personal politics are probably closest to Warren's. But I am beginning to think that our nation's best chance for recovering from the scorched-earth battles we're enduring is going to be someone center-left. If we don't return to an environment where our elected representatives negotiate and compromise we're doomed.

[monadnocky]

I've been a Vermin Supreme man since the early 90's (he's a staple here in NH, and actually did get more than a few votes earlier this week). I mean, think about it. Can't get any more absurd.

Vermin. For America.

pogjv3s4gk.jpg

[Matthew Strongin]

I've been a Vermin Supreme man since the early 90's (he's a staple here in NH, and actually did get more than a few votes earlier this week). I mean, think about it. Can't get any more absurd.

Vermin. For America.

pogjv3s4gk.jpg

Is that a boot on his head? Is it too late to register to vote in NH?

[monadnocky]

Is that a boot on his head? Is it too late to register to vote in NH?

HELL YES IT IS.
You don't "vote" for Vermin. He just picks up your brainwaves.

[thollandpe]

HELL YES IT IS.
You don't "vote" for Vermin. He just picks up your brainwaves.

Plus everyone gets a free pony!



Strong teeth for a strong America! A tyrant that you should trust.

[mzilliox]

it makes just as much if not more sense than voting for the guy who says "you're fired" over and over to b-list Hollywood rejects.

[Matthew Strongin]

HELL YES IT IS.
You don't "vote" for Vermin. He just picks up your brainwaves.

Can I use your address to register to vote? Or would that just lend credence to voter fraud claims?

[monadnocky]

Can I use your address to register to vote? Or would that just lend credence to voter fraud claims?

Get in line, mister.

[theflashunc]

I don't think it's a caricature, and I'll share my experience seeing Sanders speak to a national conference of Americans who are advocating for our government to support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

He spoke to the attendees in 2017 and delivered a stump speech on economic justice and corporate malfeasance. WTF? Totally tone-deaf and left me seeing him as an ideologue who views every problem as an economic problem.

He came back last year and this time he told us about his deep history and connection with Israel, and how his Jewish upbringing instilled in him a deep empathy with oppressed peoples and a passion for social justice. Hey! That's the speech I wanted! But now it was being delivered by a 78 year old who is recovering from a heart attack.

So he's a better candidate now, but also a much, much worse one.

And even if he wins, he'd be facing a Congress that will not be with his radical agenda. So I can't get behind him.

My personal politics are probably closest to Warren's. But I am beginning to think that our nation's best chance for recovering from the scorched-earth battles we're enduring is going to be someone center-left. If we don't return to an environment where our elected representatives negotiate and compromise we're doomed.

I checked out on Bernie in 2016 when he couldn't credibly explain how he wanted to break up the big banks. This interview with the Daily News is a mess.

TRANSCRIPT: Bernie Sanders meets with the Daily News Editorial Board, April 1, 216 - New York Daily News

[bcm119]

I'd vote for any of them, since it will be a binary choice in November. Whomever Nate Silver says has the best chances in the general election will get my vote in the primary. The subtle policy differences between the candidates mean little to me in the face of the crisis we're in. My personal preference is Warren, but I won't vote for her if it appears someone else would have a better chance.

[Matthew Strongin]

I'd vote for any of them, since it will be a binary choice in November. Whomever Nate Silver says has the best chances in the general election will get my vote in the primary. The subtle policy differences between the candidates mean little to me in the face of the crisis we're in. My personal preference is Warren, but I won't vote for her if it appears someone else would have a better chance.

Emphasis mine to highlight the word subtle. Outside of a few issues or implementation approaches, the span of policy positions among the candidates isn't really that wide. Here's a quiz (with a bunch of links to interview statements and policy positions) from The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...grees-with-me/

I've done this a few times as candidates have dropped out or my thoughts have changed on a specific policy. The widest range I've gotten is roughly 14 points for the candidate I most align with to 9 points for the candidate I don't. Of the frontrunners, they range from 13 to 10, with both Buttigieg and Warren at 13. My point is that they're all much more alike than they are different on a wide range of issues. And we shouldn't, IMO, be single issue voters unless that issue is winning the 2020 election (White House and Senate, preferably).

[deano]

I don't see Trump losing this one. He's not my horse, but the one I'd bet on come Derby Day.

[Blue Jays]

Democrat voter enthusiasm seems mostly aligned with Senator Sanders at this point.
Momentum seems to have significantly slowed for presumptive candidate VP Biden.
DNC and media seem to be heavily promoting Mayor Buttigieg and Mayor Bloomberg.

[Scott G.]

Can I use your address to register to vote? Or would that just lend credence to voter fraud claims?

“I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how;
but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how.”
Comrade Stalin.

[zachateseverything]

I'm most closely aligned with Warren but unfortunately she's getting crowded out on both sides.

Bernie I'm less enthusiastic about than I was in 2016. Come election day he'll be a 79 year-old that's not very far removed from a heart attack. A lot of his economic policies also depend on the same kind of rosy 5% growth projection we get from the current administration.

Biden is probably done pending the South Carolina primary. Outside of the name recognition he hasn't really brought a lot of excitement to the race.

Klobuchar is interesting but she's far enough behind in national polling that she likely won't make up that gap before super tuesday.

Mayors Bloomberg and Pete are probably the two that would do the best in the general election. Both will struggle with energizing the african american community though.

The field is going to narrow a lot after the next 3 weeks. It'll be interesting to see what sticks. I know a lot of people are being negative of the dems chances in November but I think it's also important to remember that Trump won by about 100,000 votes spread over 3 states that Clinton, a historically unlikable candidate, mostly ignored and took for granted. Trump has also been incredibly polarizing since being elected and GOP candidates have been under-performing in every election held since 2016, even in areas he won handily.

This is going to come down to turnout. If the Dem ticket can energize their base and not scare off too many independents they will win. If they don't manage that they won't.

[Blue Jays]

Very insightful and compelling post, @zachateseverything.

[thollandpe]

Emphasis mine to highlight the word subtle. Outside of a few issues or implementation approaches, the span of policy positions among the candidates isn't really that wide. Here's a quiz (with a bunch of links to interview statements and policy positions) from The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...grees-with-me/

I've done this a few times as candidates have dropped out or my thoughts have changed on a specific policy. The widest range I've gotten is roughly 14 points for the candidate I most align with to 9 points for the candidate I don't. Of the frontrunners, they range from 13 to 10, with both Buttigieg and Warren at 13. My point is that they're all much more alike than they are different on a wide range of issues. And we shouldn't, IMO, be single issue voters unless that issue is winning the 2020 election (White House and Senate, preferably).

That issues quiz and resulting matrix is cool. I'm most aligned with Warren and Steyer(?) and least with Biden and Gabbard. Klobuchar and Buttigieg are in the middle, go figure. One nuance it misses is how if your positions don't line up, a disagree is scored the same as almost agree. But it did correlate well with my subjective feelings for the candidates.

And regarding the Senate, press these buttons: payback project

[caleb]

Couple notes on nominating Bernie.

If the chaos voter theory is really valid, there might be more Trump -> Bernie voters than people expect.

In favor of nominating Bernie: For the past 20 years, the Rs have exploited the agenda setting power of campaigns. By moving the Overton Window further right even while losing, they've forced the Ds to become a centrist, interest-group based, party from Clinton to the present. The Ds are now advocating positions that would have been conservative in the Carter era: heads I win, tails you lose.

The issue the Ds have is that their party has a loose identity-based coalition structure that prevents them from moving left. Straightforwardly, identity-based parties have to stick to the center to maintain a viable coalition. For the party to become hard left, it has to restructure itself as a class-based party. That's what I see Bernie trying to do: turn an identity-coalition into a class party.

Win, loose, or draw, if the Ds nominate Bernie and he has a strong showing, it changes the character of the D party over the long run, and it shifts the Overton Window back left. There will be trickledown (yup, I just said that) effects for state and local left politics in which genuinely leftist policies are on the table in a way they haven't been for 40 years. State government and city councils would be changed.

The argument I see for nominating Bernie is to change the conversation, and to remodel the D party so that the conversation can be shifted left over the long haul. And, the downside risk isn't as great as it was four years ago: upon reelection, Trump will immediately become a lame duck with a D-controlled House, a schtick that's getting old, and a media that's going to quickly move on to speculating about his heir apparent. The reality TV show White House would command a lot less attention when we know it doesn't have a future.

Against nominating Bernie: If he loses, climate change, the student loan bubble, health care costs, and inequality will get four years worse, and that much harder to come back from.