...the researchers set out to determine what level of working and purchasing would be best for society as a whole, by minimizing the combined costs from a recession and the loss of human life (again assuming no vaccine was on the horizon).
They found that in order to achieve the best-case scenario, containment measures would need to curtail economic activity considerably. Lockdowns and similar policies would have to reduce consumption of goods and services by an amount several times larger than would happen organically with no government mandates.
To be clear: such a drop would lead to a severe recession, with total consumption falling by more than the amount it fell in the 2008 recession.
Yet this steep drop in economic activity would help limit the spread of the virus, reducing the death toll by hundreds of thousands compared to the scenario with no containment. “If you ramp up containment, you can greatly reduce the number of deaths,” says Rebelo.
And based on that widely accepted economic cost of a lost life, the benefits of saving so many people outweigh the direct economic costs, severe as those costs may seem.
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