Strange Weather in the Northland

[caleb]

Last night I skied until dark on decent snow. This morning I woke up to rain.

About 10:30 I went out to get the mail and snapped this picture as I was walking back in.





At 12:30 I went out to play fetch with Sogn and there was almost no snow left on the yard, just some ice.





Apparently the rain is supposed to change to snow this afternoon, and we should have 6-10" on the ground by the time we wake up tomorrow. That's good, because Sogn wants to go skijoring.




After last winter and with the way this one has started off, I'm starting to suspect I've moved to Kansas City.

Are you guys seeing unseasonable weather patterns in your areas?

[Dorman]

Caleb, where are you? It's still drizzling here in Shakopee and I haven't heard anything about snow yet. Really worried about what's going on up in Isabella as I heard freezing rain changing to snow tomorrow. I have to get up there and plow, but it might suck with all this wet stuff as I use a side by side atv.

[vertical_doug]

Yeah, what ever happened to the good ole days when it was -20 and the Vikings were playing the LA Rams outside at Met Stadium for the right to lose to the Steelers in the Superbowl. Those sure were the good'ole days.

[Matthew J]

After last winter and with the way this one has started off, I'm starting to suspect I've moved to Kansas City.

Are you guys seeing unseasonable weather patterns in your areas?

I don't think unseasonable is the right word. Unalterably changed, more likely. Chicago weather is not at all what it was 20 years ago. I am fairly certain what we are experiencing now is pretty much the precurser of what is to come.

[Tom]

Yeah, it's been unseasonable here in upstate. We got snow twice this year.

[caleb]

Caleb, where are you? It's still drizzling here in Shakopee and I haven't heard anything about snow yet. Really worried about what's going on up in Isabella as I heard freezing rain changing to snow tomorrow. I have to get up there and plow, but it might suck with all this wet stuff as I use a side by side atv.

Northwest. I sent you a PM with specific details.

Good luck getting your cabin plowed out.

[Dorman]

I don't think unseasonable is the right word. Unalterably changed, more likely. Chicago weather is not at all what it was 20 years ago. I am fairly certain what we are experiencing now is pretty much the precurser of what is to come.

Yeah, my place up north hovered in the 12-15 inches of snow on the ground range all winter last year. There was a 2 week period where it got up to near 30 inches, but quickly melted. Normal up there is 36-45 inches accumulated on the ground. Basically waist deep.

[Tom]

According to the weather weenies over at the American Weather Forums (New England subforum seems to be where all the wizards hang out) yet another pattern change is coming. Somebody's gonna get whacked, my bet would be the midwest.

[caleb]

It feels a bit more like Minnesota today. Last night we got about a half inch of ice followed by a couple inches of snow on top. This is what it looked like about 24 hours after the pictures above were taken.







After we got shoveled out we took the dogs out to a local greenspace. We didn't last long in the cold.








It felt like proper winter today.

I don't think unseasonable is the right word. Unalterably changed, more likely. Chicago weather is not at all what it was 20 years ago. I am fairly certain what we are experiencing now is pretty much the precurser of what is to come.

That's certainly a scary possibility. It would be comforting to dismiss the rain yesterday as weather rather than a sign of climate. Yet, everything I've read says that would be intellectually and scientifically dishonest.

Paul Huttner, the MPR weatherman, has been blogging about climate change in Minnesota, most recently on Friday. By all accounts, we are in for drastic changes not only in weather, but also in vegetation types.

The impact of marginal temperature change is evident in this latest system. Had it been two degrees colder when the precip started, we would have gotten an old fashioned blizzard and 8+ inches of snow. Instead, we got a mix of rain, ice, and a couple inches of snow. And of course that difference in precipitation type has radiating consequences across the ecosystem.

[vertical_doug]

That's certainly a scary possibility. It would be comforting to dismiss the rain yesterday as weather rather than a sign of climate. Yet, everything I've read says that would be intellectually and scientifically dishonest.

Paul Huttner, the MPR weatherman, has been blogging about climate change in Minnesota, most recently on Friday. By all accounts, we are in for drastic changes not only in weather, but also in vegetation types.

Actually, it is the other way around. Yesterday's rain was weather. Today's cold is weather. To extrapolate as a sign of climate change is the dishonest part. If you want to take a summation of weather events over a long period of time, and show the trends, then we can discuss climate. That's the hard part.

This doesn't mean I don't believe in climate change. I am a big believer. But weather is weather and weather varies. Rising temperatures mean more energy. More energy means more volatility in weather. More volatility in weather means you better go buy your generator and gas cans now.

[busdriver1959]

You can't cherry pick weather events to prove or disprove climate change. This is the second winter in a row that has been warm. The three prior were too damn cold. Last year while the US was warm, Europe was cold. Alaska was cold. Icebreakers had to go in to make a way for a couple of cities in Alaska to get supplies. Apparently that was an unusual event. Some blamed global warming for Katrina. That whole hurricane season was bad but it was about 5 years before another hurricane hit the US. Did global warming cause the bad hurricane season or the good ones? I don't trust either side. Plus I'm cynical because I can remember being told that we were on the verge of the next ice age back in the 70s.

[Matthew J]

Plus I'm cynical because I can remember being told that we were on the verge of the next ice age back in the 70s.

While the statement has been oft repeated on the internet, I have never seen any but scant evidence that a few television weatherman - at the time a profession even more replete with show men than now - were claim this. Nothing like the wide based science community consensus now.

More to the point, data gathering technology and thus the available data are so much greater now than in the 1970s.

If you want to be skeptical about something, the more rational target would seem to the exiting congress' motivation for killing a plan to launch a satellite equipped with a number of wide ranging equipment to further enhance the data.

[Matthew J]

That's certainly a scary possibility. It would be comforting to dismiss the rain yesterday as weather rather than a sign of climate. Yet, everything I've read says that would be intellectually and scientifically dishonest.

Paul Huttner, the MPR weatherman, has been blogging about climate change in Minnesota, most recently on Friday. By all accounts, we are in for drastic changes not only in weather, but also in vegetation types.[I]

Put in 60 miles north of Chicago wearing a light sweater under a down vest. The vest was off well before the half way point.

There is a park near my house with a fair amount of natural vegetation. For at least the third winter in a row, the place is full of very healthy robins. Robins migrate when necessary. Chicago robins no longer bother.

[caleb]

Actually, it is the other way around. Yesterday's rain was weather. Today's cold is weather. To extrapolate as a sign of climate change is the dishonest part. If you want to take a summation of weather events over a long period of time, and show the trends, then we can discuss climate. That's the hard part.

Yes, I agree, and my post above was unclear. Any given day is always weather. When I said that unusual weather events shouldn't be dismissed as only weather and not indicative of anything to do with climate, I didn't mean to imply that it's reasonable to cobble together a bunch of personal observations and therefore conclude that the climate is changing. That's not really proper induction. None of us (who aren't climatologists) are qualified to generate theories about the climate.

What I meant to imply is that given what scientists know about climate change, there would be something dishonest if I were to refuse to see the theory in my own particular events. I'm not creating the theory, but when it manifests itself in my world I don't want to turn away with my hands over my eyes or my fingers in my ears because that connection makes me uncomfortable.

Does that clarify what I meant?

[vertical_doug]

I am not a skeptic, but a do get frustrated because of the dumb downed media trying to write articles on climate change. My own belief is it will be much worse than the models predict. If anything, when systems break down it usually isn't a little breakdown, but full fubar.

[Saab2000]

People need only to see photos of Alpine glaciers from a century ago and photos of the same glaciers today taken, in many cases, from the exact same spot to know that things are changing. That is not weather. It is measurable and observable changes anyone can see. The changes I have personally witnessed are stunning.

[ned]

We got about 20" at our house in SLC. Usually an inch of snow in the city equals a foot of snow at Alta. They only got 13". Forecaster consensus is that it was too cold for snow crystallization at the higher elevations. Friggin cold around these parts. Another example of crazy weather, I think.

[fa63]

Are you guys seeing unseasonable weather patterns in your areas?

Yes. This weekend, it was in the low 70s in Atlanta, which is about 20 degrees above the norm for this time of the year. It makes for good riding, but it also makes me wonder a bit.

[lukasz]

You can't look at one or two years, and we could very well just be in a warm spot (and by spot I mean a ~200-300 year long period), but things ain't looking good IMO.

Little Ice Age - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

mIMtL.jpg

[Nierman]

I believe we have so much #$%&ing data being shoved into our sense holes in today's age, we simply don't know what to do with it. A good bike ride usually clears my head of such nonsense.

*this post emitted 0.3g of CO2