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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #441
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Dave Thompson View Post
    A Putin joke, moderately OT but somewhat relevant.

    Putin dies and goes to hell. After a while he’s given a day off for good behavior.

    So he goes to Moscow, enters a bar, orders a drink and asks the bartender:

    -Is the Crimea ours?

    -Yes, it is.

    -And the Donbas?

    -Also ours.

    -And Kyiv?

    -We got that too.

    -Satisfied, Putin finishes his drink and asks:

    -Thanks, how much do I owe you?

    -5 Euros.
    My wife is in Tbilisi, Georgia right now. I sent her this joke yesterday. She has a group of colleagues in Georgia from a previous firm and from other local firms she's worked with on pipeline litigation, so when among friends after dinner last night she told this joke. They thought it was hilarious. Some already knew a version where the 5 euros was replaced with 5 hryvnia (Ukrainian currency), but as Georgia is applying for EU membership, they thought the 5 euros was an improvement.

    So thanks for posting that!
    Last edited by j44ke; 05-13-2022 at 10:56 AM.
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  2. #442
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Just going for a bike ride in Ukraine...

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    Default Re: Ukraine

    This is not an easy thing to watch. It show the heights of bravery and dedication, and the deep depravity of disinformation. And the horror of war, which does not spare children.



    Captive medic’s body cam shows firsthand horror of Mariupol — AP

    “She recorded 256 gigabytes of her team’s frantic efforts over two weeks to bring people back from the brink of death. She got the harrowing clips to an Associated Press team, one of whom fled with it in a tampon.

    Russian soldiers captured Taira and her driver, one of many forced disappearances in areas now held by Russia. Russia has portrayed Taira as working for the nationalist Azov Battalion, in line with Moscow’s narrative that it is attempting to ‘denazify’ Ukraine. But the AP found no such evidence, and friends and colleagues said she had no links to Azov.

    The military hospital where she led evacuations of the wounded is not affiliated with the battalion. The footage testifies to the fact that she tried to save wounded Russian soldiers as well as Ukrainian civilians.”
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  4. #444
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Hopefully this move by the EU will bring the invasion of Ukraine to the forefront and force conversations within Europe on how best to support the Ukraine.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-geor.../31902263.html
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  5. #445
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Sobering piece in the NYT this morning about Russia’s use of weapons and tactics that are against international law.

    What Hundreds of Photos of Weapons Reveal About Russia’s Brutal War Strategy

    Disproportionate use of unguided munitions (saturation bombing)
    Cluster bombs — in civilian areas (hospitals, kindergartens, etc.)
    Other shit — booby traps, land mines, thermite
    Guided missiles used on civilian areas
    Unexploded ordnance (likely leaving parts of Ukraine as a wasteland)

    Last edited by thollandpe; 06-19-2022 at 07:00 AM.
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  6. #446
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    The f^ckage quotient in the world today is obliterating. There is no direct object in that sentence.
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  7. #447
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by thollandpe View Post
    Sobering piece in the NYT this morning about Russia’s use of weapons and tactics that are against international law.

    What Hundreds of Photos of Weapons Reveal About Russia’s Brutal War Strategy

    Disproportionate use of unguided munitions (saturation bombing)
    Cluster bombs — in civilian areas (hospitals, kindergartens, etc.)
    Other shit — booby traps, land mines, thermite
    Guided missiles used on civilian areas
    Unexploded ordnance (likely leaving parts of Ukraine as a wasteland)

    It’s gonna get way worse before it gets better too..
    my name is Matt
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  8. #448
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bigbill View Post
    Hopefully this move by the EU will bring the invasion of Ukraine to the forefront and force conversations within Europe on how best to support the Ukraine.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-geor.../31902263.html
    Sometimes (like right now) I think (sorta), fuck it; go in (the US) and demolish the Russian war machine. Easy to say, costly (in all forms of currency), brinksmanship for sure, I don't give us a pass for forcing the issue; moronic (in my view) misplaying (to put it politely) our hand (one of our lesser modern sins) in the game or realpolitik but the photos of a demolished former vibrant country, and what that means to all living creatures there, really piss me off; and we haven't clean skirts either. But if Putin wants to launch nukes....well, as best I can tell we're (humanity) gonna make a trainwreck of the planet anyway (we're well along the way to doing it and I see no reason to expect changes in that trajectory), so why not just get the whole thing over quickly if that's how it's gonna go.

    I guess it's fair to say that I'm in a sour mood.

    It occurs to me that the characteristics necessary for human survival up to the point when clubs and swords were state of the "art" are precisely the characteristics that will doom us now; the corollary being that we're in a race between evolving aggression adequately out of the human species (well, seriously attenuating it which is necessary in a nuclear weapons + hypersonic scramble for the Earth's remaining resources age), and some indeterminant date when somebody decides to push the button, or we just over consume/pollute/destroy everything to the point of ecological catastrophe. Which it will be, and on what schedule, are really the only questions in my mind.

    Hopefully, somewhere, some well meaning people a hell of a lot smarter, wiser, etc., etc., etc., than me are working on the problem. But they have to drag the folks who populate the rest of the Gaussian curve, along...and that is a tough nut to crack (the evidence abounds)!

    Cheers.
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  10. #450
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    This picture that Tweed chose was taken in Bucha (I think all these pictures look about the same) the city where I have gone every year for many years to build bicycles for pastors. I've cycled or walked or run on about every street. The guy I worked with lived in the town next door and - as I already said in other posts - had to hid in his root cellar for a couple of weeks until he could escape to the west. He went back recently to survey the damage to his house and our workshop and storage sheds. Our workshop was broken into and all the general tools were stolen. Our bench vise, grinder, drills and general tools like open end socket wrenches. And all the stainless nuts, bolts and screws we use to make frames into complete bicycles. Fortunately they left the bicycle tools like all our bicycle specific taps and reamers we got from Park as well as our truing stands. Those would be difficult to replace. It used to be that I could load up a bike box up to 100 lbs and I took advantage of that every time I went over with bike specific tools. I think that is all that was taken, I'm waiting for a more complete report. The Russian thieves couldn't break into the storage shed next door to the workshop where Yuiry and put our Anvil fixtures and other valuables. In the other storage shed - where some road bicycles were stored - the door was busted open but the bicycles remained. 3 of them were sport touring steel Treks I repainted and reequiped. The one I used I put on a Campy 8 sp triple group. The interesting thing is that Yuiry told me that when campus people returned they found the shed door wide open (had been for days) but nobody had bothered to take the bikes. I had a transportation bicycle with an IGH that survived too. Yuiry gave permission to those that came back to campus to use it. This area is at the back of campus where it would be a bit awkward to get to. I'm sure the Russians found them a bit bulky. As I understand it, the stuff they stole goes on the Russian equivalent of eBay. The houses surrounding the college campus were really nice homes and probably had a treasure trove on expensive items smaller and more valuable than our bicycles.
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Paul Jacobs View Post
    French, German and Swiss support is truly disheartening. The U.S. and U.K. are doing most of the heavy lifting -Mike G
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by jclay View Post
    Sometimes (like right now) I think (sorta), fuck it; go in (the US) and demolish the Russian war machine. Easy to say, costly (in all forms of currency), brinksmanship for sure, I don't give us a pass for forcing the issue; moronic (in my view) misplaying (to put it politely) our hand (one of our lesser modern sins) in the game or realpolitik but the photos of a demolished former vibrant country, and what that means to all living creatures there, really piss me off; and we haven't clean skirts either. But if Putin wants to launch nukes....well, as best I can tell we're (humanity) gonna make a trainwreck of the planet anyway (we're well along the way to doing it and I see no reason to expect changes in that trajectory), so why not just get the whole thing over quickly if that's how it's gonna go.
    Can I ask how the U.S. would "demolish the Russian war machine"? When was the last time Russia was defeated in a war? Of America's last 10 wars, how many has it won? And how did that foe compare to the Russian military? America didn't even win in Yemen even after killing 350,000 impoverished people with cluster bombs. BTW, were you equally pissed after seeing the pictures of a destroyed Yemen? Or Iraq? Or Syria? Or...

    Next question: are you currently enlisted in the military? Are your children currently enlisted? Are your nieces and nephews? Or do you expect that others will volunteer to die for your dream?

    You want to see the youth of Russia's 160 million population join the army? Watch what happens in the week after the moment the U.S. crosses the border.

    President Obama warned against getting involved in Ukraine. Plus many other experts over the last 25 years including Zbigniew Brzezinski and three former ambassadors to Russia. I hope and expect Russia will lose its war with Ukraine, but the idea of America going to Russia with the goal of "demolishing the Russian war machine" is just...uh...ill-advised.
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  13. #453
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by 9tubes View Post
    Can I ask how the U.S. would "demolish the Russian war machine"? When was the last time Russia was defeated in a war? Of America's last 10 wars, how many has it won? And how did that foe compare to the Russian military? America didn't even win in Yemen even after killing 350,000 impoverished people with cluster bombs. BTW, were you equally pissed after seeing the pictures of a destroyed Yemen? Or Iraq? Or Syria? Or...

    Next question: are you currently enlisted in the military? Are your children currently enlisted? Are your nieces and nephews? Or do you expect that others will volunteer to die for your dream?

    You want to see the youth of Russia's 160 million population join the army? Watch what happens in the week after the moment the U.S. crosses the border.

    President Obama warned against getting involved in Ukraine. Plus many other experts over the last 25 years including Zbigniew Brzezinski and three former ambassadors to Russia. I hope and expect Russia will lose its war with Ukraine, but the idea of America going to Russia with the goal of "demolishing the Russian war machine" is just...uh...ill-advised.
    It was pointless, fatalistic venting, not a serious proposal; it is not possible to be very much more critical than I am WRT the MIC, US military "interventions" and general footprint in the post WWII era, the cost in blood, treasure and lost opportunity on all sides, but vastly more particularly in the "recipient" countries, and the associated ecological destruction; the second place country in this insane race isn't on the same lap as the US.
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    I've linked Commander Salamander in the past, but an article from this week should be read by every warhawk or armchair strategerist. http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/20...-national.html As John Clay and others have alluded, the US view of the world is that of the US point of view. Word salad, but we as a nation want the rest of the world to respond according to our world view. As the article discusses, the outward appearance of Germany's waffling concerning Ukraine and Russia requires a deeper understanding of German history and how it shaped their world view.
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  15. #455
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Intro para: "The cultural and historical elements that determine the relations between Russia and Ukraine are important. The two countries have a long, rich, diverse, and eventful history together.

    This would be essential if the crisis we are experiencing today were rooted in history. However, it is a product of the present. The war we see today does not come from our great-grandparents, our grandparents or even our parents. It comes from us. We created this crisis. We created every piece and every mechanism. We have only exploited existing dynamics and exploited Ukraine to satisfy an old dream: to try to bring down Russia. Chrystia Freeland’s, Antony Blinken’s, Victoria Nuland’s and Olaf Scholz’s grandfathers had that dream; we realized it."

    More here: https://www.thepostil.com/the-hidden...ar-in-ukraine/

    Jacques Baud is a former colonel of the General Staff, ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, specialist on Eastern countries. He was trained in the American and British intelligence services. He has served as Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations. As a UN expert on rule of law and security institutions, he designed and led the first multidimensional UN intelligence unit in the Sudan. He has worked for the African Union and was for 5 years responsible for the fight, at NATO, against the proliferation of small arms. He was involved in discussions with the highest Russian military and intelligence officials just after the fall of the USSR. Within NATO, he followed the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist the Ukraine. He is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism, in particular Le Détournement published by SIGEST, Gouverner par les fake news, L’affaire Navalny. His latest book is Poutine, maître du jeu? published by Max Milo.
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Fascinating. This 14-point analysis is first in a series of articles.

    Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion — WaPo exclusive

    ”This account, in previously unreported detail, shines new light on the uphill climb to restore U.S. credibility, the attempt to balance secrecy around intelligence with the need to persuade others of its truth, and the challenge of determining how the world’s most powerful military alliance would help a less-than-perfect democracy on Russia’s border defy an attack without NATO firing a shot.”
    Last edited by thollandpe; 08-16-2022 at 08:33 AM.
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  17. #457
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by thollandpe View Post
    Fascinating. This 14-point analysis is first in a series of articles.

    Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion — WaPo exclusive

    ”This account, in previously unreported detail, shines new light on the uphill climb to restore U.S. credibility, the attempt to balance secrecy around intelligence with the need to persuade others of its truth, and the challenge of determining how the world’s most powerful military alliance would help a less-than-perfect democracy on Russia’s border defy an attack without NATO firing a shot.”
    Read it, depressingly, this morning. What fascinates me, in a dismal way, is mainstream US media silence when it comes to informed but non-US MIC & cultural perspectives; like the one in post #455 and some others. I would have expected the WaPo and other responsible media to give similar ink/time to opposing viewpoints but I haven't seen it. We built this result and it goes back decades.
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  18. #458
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by jclay View Post
    [snip]We built this result and it goes back decades.
    In the spirit of Jonathan Swift.

    Oct 11 1986, blame America first.
    or
    Apr 16 1917, this is all actually blow back from a German intelligence triumph.

    In the spirit of Jonathan Swift.
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  19. #459
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by jclay View Post
    Read it, depressingly, this morning. What fascinates me, in a dismal way, is mainstream US media silence when it comes to informed but non-US MIC & cultural perspectives; like the one in post #455 and some others. I would have expected the WaPo and other responsible media to give similar ink/time to opposing viewpoints but I haven't seen it. We built this result and it goes back decades.
    I don't know if you consider Foreignpolicy.com as MSM, but this writer is non-US and makes a strong argument against the leftist armchair analysis you continually post here.

    Russia's Brutal Honesty has Destroyed the West's Appeasers

    "Yet six months into this brutal war, there are still plenty of Western intellectuals, politicians, journalists, and activists willfully ignoring what Russia itself is telling them again and again, loud and clear. As a Russian journalist now in exile, I find this willful ignorance of my country deeply disturbing. Some of these pundits insist that there is a “peaceful” solution—which usually translates to stopping weapons deliveries to Ukraine and leaving the country to Russian leader Vladimir Putin to pick apart—or that the conflict is about the Kremlin’s “interests” or “security concerns.” All the while, the evidence of Russia’s actual goals and war crimes in Ukraine has become ever more overwhelming."
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    Default Re: Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by bcm119 View Post
    I don't know if you consider Foreignpolicy.com as MSM, but this writer is non-US and makes a strong argument against the leftist armchair analysis you continually post here.

    Russia's Brutal Honesty has Destroyed the West's Appeasers

    "Yet six months into this brutal war, there are still plenty of Western intellectuals, politicians, journalists, and activists willfully ignoring what Russia itself is telling them again and again, loud and clear. As a Russian journalist now in exile, I find this willful ignorance of my country deeply disturbing. Some of these pundits insist that there is a “peaceful” solution—which usually translates to stopping weapons deliveries to Ukraine and leaving the country to Russian leader Vladimir Putin to pick apart—or that the conflict is about the Kremlin’s “interests” or “security concerns.” All the while, the evidence of Russia’s actual goals and war crimes in Ukraine has become ever more overwhelming."
    Thanks for the article. That was a brutal read; brutal as in the mere synopsis of what Russia has committed is dreadful enough, and I don't think I have the stomach to know the exact details.

    I found the these paragraphs particularly cogent:

    If, like the political scientist John Mearsheimer, your arguments are being used by Russian state television to prop up the regime’s ridiculous claims that Kyiv and Washington are to blame for this war, you should probably reconsider the intellectual journey that led you to this point. If, like many of the Western leftists obsessed with the NATO war cause theory, you reject imperialism and colonialism as a matter of principle (rather than only its U.S. or British versions), you couldn’t have missed the Kremlin’s detailed public plans for dismantling Ukraine’s sovereignty, Russia’s plundering of faraway lands like Sudan to fund a war of conquest and annihilation, and the Kremlin’s use of ethnic minorities as cannon fodder for the war.

    ...

    Foreigners are under no such pressure when they align with the Kremlin’s goals in Ukraine. At the very heart of many Western progressives and old-style leftists’ worldview is a reflexive anti-American and anti-Western ideology, which operates from the core premise that no historical crime could ever be graver than those committed by the United States and the European powers. Hence, any anti-American leader has their natural sympathies, and any country supported by the United States—such as Ukraine—becomes deeply suspicious. Since the advent of populist parties in the West, there is also a conservative version of these anti-Western, pro-Russian sentiments—just ask former U.S. President Donald Trump.

    But if you find yourself agreeing with Putin solely on the basis of agreeing with his anti-Western stance, it’s probably time to consider other factors, too. When calling for peace, an end to Western support for Ukraine, and meeting Russia’s demands for another country’s land, have you fleshed out what half a genocide might look like? It’s not as if Russia has been especially coy about its intentions in Ukraine. It has been advertising them practically 24/7 on national television. Have you asked actual Ukrainians if what you call a peace would be acceptable to them? In recent polls, more than 80 percent of Ukrainians have consistently rejected any territorial concessions to Russia. If you are a left-wing politician or activist, are you aware of your Ukrainian comrades’ opinions? When calling for peace with Putin, do you realize that displaying symbols of peace is now a prosecutable offense in Russia? Do you know what the occupied areas you’d like to trade for “peace” look like? Russia has made sure that you do.
    In particular, this article lead me to the New Yorker interview with Mearsheimer (see link in quote above, bold emphases of questions to Mearsheimer original), and I have to say whereas I once thought he might be making nuanced arguments (up to this interview, I did not know what he actually thought), it quickly became clear that his own biases make his arguments very difficult to take at face value. Note in particular his legerdemain re: his objection of calling Putin's action "imperialistic" and his preference for calling this war "great-power politics" (emphasized in underline and italics below), as if the latter were somehow excusable when the former were not, when in effect the latter is a mere euphemism of the former. Earlier in the interview, Mearsheimer states that Putin both wants regime change in Kyiv and "[Putin] not having designs on Kyiv." Intellectual dishonesty at its worst, as that's propaganda, not intellectual discourse.

    You don’t think he has designs on Kyiv?

    No, I don’t think he has designs on Kyiv. I think he’s interested in taking at least the Donbass, and maybe some more territory and eastern Ukraine, and, number two, he wants to install in Kyiv a pro-Russian government, a government that is attuned to Moscow’s interests.

    I thought you said that he was not interested in taking Kyiv.

    No, he’s interested in taking Kyiv for the purpose of regime change. O.K.?

    As opposed to what?

    As opposed to permanently conquering Kyiv.

    It would be a Russian-friendly government that he would presumably have some say over, right?

    Yes, exactly. But it’s important to understand that it is fundamentally different from conquering and holding onto Kyiv. Do you understand what I’m saying?

    We could all think of imperial possessions whereby a sort of figurehead was put on the throne, even if the homeland was actually controlling what was going on there, right? We’d still say that those places had been conquered, right?

    I have problems with your use of the word “imperial.” I don’t know anybody who talks about this whole problem in terms of imperialism. This is great-power politics, and what the Russians want is a regime in Kyiv that is attuned to Russian interests. It may be ultimately that the Russians would be willing to live with a neutral Ukraine, and that it won’t be necessary for Moscow to have any meaningful control over the government in Kyiv. It may be that they just want a regime that is neutral and not pro-American.

    When you said that no one’s talking about this as imperialism, in Putin’s speeches he specifically refers to the “territory of the former Russian Empire,” which he laments losing. So it seems like he’s talking about it.

    I think that’s wrong, because I think you’re quoting the first half of the sentence, as most people in the West do. He said, “Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart.” And then he said, “Whoever wants it back has no brain.
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