The Vaccine Thread

[Clean39T]

You're already infectious by the time you receive the call or notification versus having a 2 or 3 day window before. In other words, you've circulated more while possibly contagious.

Or put another way.. the entire office, school, or wedding party has it before anyone gets tested and realizes what's happening.

Current rule: vaccine and N95, or GTFO of my orbit.

[jimcav]

If you get it in half the time wouldn't that make it easier to contract trace due to needed to go back fewer days?

the relevant math is the # positive tests per day and huge # of places with widespread, ongoing transmission (not to mention are all "potentially exposed" getting tested at the proper time). They don't have the bodies (let alone trained bodies) to do effective contact tracing in many places. The other math behind the more rapid onset (shorter incubation) is the much, much higher viral loads in folks with Delta vs original COVID. Even vaccinated folks "get" Delta and can pass it, they could be mildly sick or even asymptomatic. It all makes contact tracing very difficult whether asymptomatic or not. At least the vaccine knocks down the time of viral shedding--so less transmission than if the same person was infected and unvaccinated (not to mention far less likely to end up in hospital/morgue)

contact tracing is useful before a virus becomes widely transmitted, after that, it is essential to take action to prevent transmission as mush as possible. (like fire breaks to stop a wildfire spread) you know, the things folks are still whining about--distancing, masks, vaccines etc

[beeatnik]

Or put another way.. the entire office, school, or wedding party has it before anyone gets tested and realizes what's happening.

Current rule: vaccine and N95, or GTFO of my orbit.

Would you be willing to add non-immunocompromised with documented previous infection, vaccinated or unvaccinated, to the list?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...ection-parties

naturalimmunity.jpg

[Clean39T]

Would you be willing to add non-immunocompromised with documented previous infection, vaccinated or unvaccinated, to the list?

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...ection-parties

Not enough relevant, reliable data at this point - so I'm just sticking with unless you're in my bubble (i.e., my partner or my cat), I'm masking and distancing.... and even then I'm only going indoors around other people when there's no other alternative. All my friends and family are vaccinated but I don't trust that they are being as careful in their day-to-day - so even outdoors around them, masks and stay a bit away is how it is. Basically the only place I feel safe being in proximity to anyone without a mask on is on my bike, moving at a good clip, and passing somebody in a matter of a few seconds. If the hospitals weren't overflowing and caseloads weren't increasing and kids weren't getting sick (and unable to be protected), I wouldn't feel the need to be so extreme. But they are. And so I am.

[beeatnik]

What would be convincing or relevant and reliable data? I mean, in your opinion. Asking not to be argumentative but to increase my understanding of others' risk calculus. At this point I would be more comfortable around someone with natural immunity than a person vaccinated in March. This kind of stuff informs decisions I make to provide my 5 year old a safe and sane universe.

Not enough relevant, reliable data at this point - so I'm just sticking with unless you're in my bubble (i.e., my partner or my cat), I'm masking and distancing.... and even then I'm only going indoors around other people when there's no other alternative.

Boring introverts of the world, unite (remotely).

[Clean39T]

What would be convincing or relevant and reliable data? I mean, in your opinion. Asking not to be argumentative but to increase my understanding of others' risk calculus. At this point I would be more comfortable around someone with natural immunity than a person vaccinated in March. This kind of stuff informs decisions I make to provide my 5 year old a safe and sane universe.

It's a theoretical question for me - I don't know anyone who fits that profile and I'm not out looking for strangers to mingle with these days... It's all just risk mitigation and how far you can go or want to go - and what you can do as a member of society to reduce overall risks for everyone given your "must do" activities (work, etc.). In that vein, I hope all of the "naturally immune" go ahead and get vaxxed anyway - for their sake, and everyone else's. I fear this news will be misinterpreted by anyone wanting to find fuel to dismiss the utility of vaccines, and that's a shame.

[Marvinlungwitz]

This thread should be locked. Thanks.

[zetroc]

This thread should be locked. Thanks.

Agree. Nobody's getting convinced anymore.

Please get vaccinated and encourage others to do likewise.

[thollandpe]

Regarding contact tracing, I think the effort was torpedoed from the outset. Unfortunately one of the many failings to try and contain this pandemic from the beginning.

But going forward, I think if we all ask — if we were to get sick, or test positive, tomorrow — how many calls would we have to make?

I realize that we don’t all have the same ability to limit our contacts and shrink our orbits, but we all have elective circulation that we can either strongly curtail and/or where we can exercise strong countermeasures (PPE and vaccines). The key is to look at it from the angle of whether you’ve done what you can to reduce the risk of transmission if you are or have been infected. That’s not the way I see most people looking at it.

Collective action, it’s a thing. And it has gotten us out of some pretty deep shit in the past.

[vertical_doug]

It's a theoretical question for me - I don't know anyone who fits that profile and I'm not out looking for strangers to mingle with these days... It's all just risk mitigation and how far you can go or want to go - and what you can do as a member of society to reduce overall risks for everyone given your "must do" activities (work, etc.). In that vein, I hope all of the "naturally immune" go ahead and get vaxxed anyway - for their sake, and everyone else's. I fear this news will be misinterpreted by anyone wanting to find fuel to dismiss the utility of vaccines, and that's a shame.

I looked at the Israeli study. It makes sense that the survivors of the disease have a more sophisticated immune response since the vaccine only targets the Spike mRNA of the virus and not the other genes.

However, the issue is the 16,000 survivors versus the 16,000 double vaxxed individuals... To get 16,000 double vaxxed individuals, they started with 16,000 inidividuals and vaccinated. No one died of vaccination. There were greater breakthough infections, higher hospitalizations, but no one died from post vaccination infection.

To get 16,000 survivors for the study, you started with 16,110 because 110 people die of infection to get immunity (prorata of 69 bps from Israel overall mortality). Fewer people get infected, and no one dies from second infection. Total deaths = 110

So although the immunity post natural infection may be better, the cost to attain it is too high.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...415v1.full.pdf

If you think about this as an economic risk return, you took greater risk being infected, so hope you get greater return (better immunity) and had a higher chance of dying along the way....

[vertical_doug]

Regarding contact tracing, I think the effort was torpedoed from the outset. Unfortunately one of the many failings to try and contain this pandemic from the beginning.

But going forward, I think if we all ask — if we were to get sick, or test positive, tomorrow — how many calls would we have to make?

I realize that we don’t all have the same ability to limit our contacts and shrink our orbits, but we all have elective circulation that we can either strongly curtail and/or where we can exercise strong countermeasures (PPE and vaccines). The key is to look at it from the angle of whether you’ve done what you can to reduce the risk of transmission if you are or have been infected. That’s not the way I see most people looking at it.

Collective action, it’s a thing. And it has gotten us out of some pretty deep shit in the past.

The NHS app in the UK had a blue tooth automatic contact trace when enabled. It would send a ping to let you know when you where in contact with an infected individual. It worked, but so many people were getting pinged, parts of the economy hard to shut down (bus drivers, train drivers, etc etc were all getting pinged. ) . Stations and mass transit lines would be closed , trains would be cancelled. Truck drivers etc would have to quarantine. It became unworkable.

[thollandpe]

It became unworkable.

The alternative has not worked either.

[beeatnik]

I hope it's clear that I'm not advocating for intentional infection in the immune naive. I believe we require more sophisticated approaches in addressing Covid-19 risks in low income communities where POC, particularly Latinos, have infection rates approaching 50%. These populations should not be disenfranchised or discriminated against based on behaviors (macro and micro) which don't align with the standard binary narrative.

I looked at the Israeli study. It makes sense that the survivors of the disease have a more sophisticated immune response since the vaccine only targets the Spike mRNA of the virus and not the other genes.

However, the issue is the 16,000 survivors versus the 16,000 double vaxxed individuals... To get 16,000 double vaxxed individuals, they started with 16,000 inidividuals and vaccinated. No one died of vaccination. There were greater breakthough infections, higher hospitalizations, but no one died from post vaccination infection.

To get 16,000 survivors for the study, you started with 16,110 because 110 people die of infection to get immunity (prorata of 69 bps from Israel overall mortality). Fewer people get infected, and no one dies from second infection. Total deaths = 110

So although the immunity post natural infection may be better, the cost to attain it is too high.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...415v1.full.pdf

If you think about this as an economic risk return, you took greater risk being infected, so hope you get greater return (better immunity) and had a higher chance of dying along the way....

[vertical_doug]

I hope it's clear that I'm not advocating for intentional infection in the immune naive. I believe we require more sophisticated approaches in addressing Covid-19 risks in low income communities where POC, particularly Latinos, have infection rates approaching 50%. These populations should not be disenfranchised or discriminated against based on behaviors (macro and micro) which don't align with the standard binary narrative.

We just have to disagree here. If you are poor and uninsured, not to be vaccinated from an economic perspective is like choosing bankruptcy. It is a binary decision for those able to be vaccinated. 1+1 does equal 3. Give me a valid argument for people who are not immunocompromised, or too young. Historic distrust of the government, just does not seem like a valid reason to me. If it is a religious reason, then you are in god hands as you wish.

I may be destined to be a morlock.

[beeatnik]

I was mostly talking about the previously infected. Vaccine passports and all that. Wish I had more insight into the thought processes of young unvaccinated immune naive low SES POCs. But as J44ke, I default to empathy.

We just have to disagree here. If you are poor and uninsured, not to be vaccinated from an economic perspective is like choosing bankruptcy. It is a binary decision for those able to be vaccinated. 1+1 does equal 3. Give me a valid argument for people who are not immunocompromised, or too young. Historic distrust of the government, just does not seem like a valid reason to me. If it is a religious reason, then you are in god hands as you wish.

I may be destined to be a morlock.

[thollandpe]

Interesting to look at responses that may have worked.

Why Provincetown’s Response to Its Covid Outbreak Was So Effective

“Noticing an uptick in cases, investigators in Massachusetts tried to identify clusters of transmission and where they happened. Where you find one transmission event, you are likely to find more. This approach is called ‘source investigation,’ or ‘backward contact tracing.’ When a case is reported, investigators look back at a person’s activities to identify where they might have been infected, and then determine whether others may have been infected at the same time. The technique has proved useful for analyzing disease clusters in countries like Australia and New Zealand, where every case of unknown origin is considered an emergency because it could mean that a potential superspreading event has not been found.”

[jimcav]

I was mostly talking about the previously infected. Vaccine passports and all that. Wish I had more insight into the thought processes of young unvaccinated immune naïve low SES POCs. But as J44ke, I default to empathy.

All the data I have seen shows the immune response is better in those previously infected (original COVID or Alpha) PLUS vaccine, versus just letting them sit with innate immunity resulting from prior infection. Data also shows vaccination both reduces severity of DELTA infection if that individual gets infected with DELTA, it also reduces the duration of their ability to spread it if they do get DELTA.

[j44ke]

We just have to disagree here. If you are poor and uninsured, not to be vaccinated from an economic perspective is like choosing bankruptcy. It is a binary decision for those able to be vaccinated. 1+1 does equal 3. Give me a valid argument for people who are not immunocompromised, or too young. Historic distrust of the government, just does not seem like a valid reason to me. If it is a religious reason, then you are in god hands as you wish.

I may be destined to be a morlock.

Yeah but see, you are thinking like a financial advisor. For certain sectors of the economy, declaring personal bankruptcy is something that actually happens at a day to day sort of level. Sure it may be depressing, but no one dies and the world doesn't end. Work is hard but it was hard before. No one has any money but no one had any money before. Everything is a scramble. Nothing feels safe. What's one more thing?

It doesn't have to be a belief system gone haywire or a obsession with a dogmatic leader or a hypnotism by mythological Internet storytelling. Could just be life. You need to have something to fear losing it. Everything else is just day to day. Can't be afraid of everything.

[thollandpe]

How the Delta Variant Infiltrated an Elementary School Classroom

The kids were too young for the vaccine, 12 out of 24 became infected, including every student in the front row. It eventually spread to at least 26 people. That’s how 1 turns into 26.

The teacher was unvaccinated.
They broke protocol and read aloud to the class, mask off.
They were symptomatic for two days before getting tested.
In my opinion, this teacher should be in another line of work.

The outbreak was likely fueled both by Delta’s high level of infectiousness and by the fact that the teacher did not follow recommended safety precautions, the researchers said.

“I thought I respected its contagiousness,” Dr. Lisa Santora, deputy health officer at the Marin Health and Human Services and an author of the report, said of the Delta variant. But its efficiency in overtaking the classroom “surprised and humbled” her.

[Matthew Strongin]

How the Delta Variant Infiltrated an Elementary School Classroom

The kids were too young for the vaccine, 12 out of 24 became infected, including every student in the front row. It eventually spread to at least 26 people. That’s how 1 turns into 26.

The teacher was unvaccinated.
They broke protocol and read aloud to the class, mask off.
They were symptomatic for two days before getting tested.
In my opinion, this teacher should be in another line of work.

My 5 year old just started school and stories like that keep me up at night.