The Vaccine Thread

[robin3mj]

I’m with you on this one…my wife and I were just shaking our collective heads. It’s hard for me to believe that there are not federal/state guidelines regulations in place to deal with this issue and the arrogance of those that were being interviewed, in terms of rationalizing why they could do what they please, is beyond me.

The sad thing is that the staff who quit can turn around and get a job at a staffing agency, and find themselves right back working in the same place, still unvaxxed, at 2.5x the cost to their original employer.

[beeatnik]

Delta Breakthrough Update, Aug 19, 2021

5 days since symptom onset, 4 days since positive PCR. Moderate yet worsening cough with sinus issues and continued muscle aches. Emotionally this is challenging stuff, especially for a household of 3 with a 5 year old. Considering an ER visit for a chest x-ray. You would think the possibility of going to the hospital would induce anxiety but wife has actually been calmer since option was raised. In any case our ongoing situation made me reexamine the intellectual dishonesty in the presentation of statistics in pieces such as the New York times article on waning vaccine effectiveness:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/h...nfections.html
The states’ data do affirm that vaccinated people are far less likely to become severely ill or to die from Covid-19. In California, for example, the 1,615 hospitalizations of people with breakthrough infections as of Aug. 8 represents just 0.007 percent of nearly 22 million fully immunized residents, and breakthrough deaths an even smaller percentage.

But in six of the states, breakthrough infections accounted for 18 percent to 28 percent of recorded cases in recent weeks. (In Virginia, the outlier, 6.4 percent of the cases were in vaccinated people.) These numbers are likely to be underestimates, because most fully immunized people who become infected may not be taking careful precautions, or may not feel ill enough to seek a test.

What does "far less likely" really mean?

LA County's limited dashboard on breakthrough cases lists 425 hospitalizations out of 20181 breakthrough cases between June 1 and Aug 10. During the same period, there were 5127 hospitalizations of unvaccinated persons out of 68868 individuals with confirmed positives. The hospitalization rate for breakthrough cases is 2.1% and the rate for the unvaccinated and not fully vaccinated, 7.45%. Those rates aren't adjusted for age, comorbidities or relative rates of vaccination.

http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/med...-dashboard.htm

The UK has more granular data. From 147612 sequenced infections of unvaccinated persons under 50, Public Health England reports 1443 hospitalizations and 48 deaths. In the fully vaccinated, 25536 infections were reported with 153 hospitalizations and 13 deaths.

Hospitalization rate of infected, unvaccinated persons under 50: 0.98%
CFR, unvaccinated under 50: 0.03%

Hospitalization rate, fully vaccinated: 0.6%
CFR, full vaccinated: 0.05%

https://assets.publishing.service.go...riefing_20.pdf

Current reporting on vaccine efficacy confuses the issue. The focus is on prevalence and not outcomes. Which is the same trick Covid deniers employ in their talking points. 99.98% survival rate! ("0.007 percent of 22 million). When my brother was diagnosed with Hodgkin's at 26, he wasn't interested in statistics about the prevalence of Hodgkins in the general population. He was interested in outcomes for his cohort and therapeutics.

Oh, before I get asked for a thesis. If you're vaccinated and become ill with Covid-19, treat it like Covid-19. And by that I mean act as you would have in 2020 or before you were vaccinated. My wife is just past 40. All the people we know under 50 who had Covid last summer or winter, none were hospitalized. Most had milder symptoms than my wife.

[ColonelJLloyd]

I also have a 5 year old and a wife who is aces. I'm thinking positive for your family.

[Clean39T]

Here's a well documented look at what's happening to our local hospital system: https://www.kgw.com/article/news/hea...2-510674ce8516

[Clean39T]

Delta Breakthrough Update [...].

Hope things are looking up today for your personal situation.

Here's a look at the breakdown of outcomes for Vaccinated vs. un-Vaccinated at Oregon Health Science University:

Current-COVID-19-Hospitalizations-2-FACEBOOK-and-INSTAGRAM_ad27d020-18ce-4c4d-9a1c-4190f258cd37-.jpg

[vertical_doug]

I’m with you on this one…my wife and I were just shaking our collective heads. It’s hard for me to believe that there are not federal/state guidelines regulations in place to deal with this issue and the arrogance of those that were being interviewed, in terms of rationalizing why they could do what they please, is beyond me.

I am not surprised. I think this goes hand in hand with other issues around nursing homes/ care homes for the elderly. I am willing to wager the unvaccinated workers with the nursing homes are at the homes wih reputations I would not want my parents at. The concept of 'care' is lacking in the mindset and I bet it permeates the places. . .

[beeatnik]

Thanks!

So even though more people are being hospitalized and dying in LA County than Oregon (1800 hospitalizations and 33 daily deaths compared to 8 for Oregon), the Kaiser urgent care is nowhere near capacity. Nearly empty last night. However, full recovery is on the immediate horizon. Interestingly enough we learned that my wife was part of a cluster of vaccinated individuals. All symptomatic.

Hope things are looking up today for your personal situation.

Here's a look at the breakdown of outcomes for Vaccinated vs. un-Vaccinated at Oregon Health Science University:

Current-COVID-19-Hospitalizations-2-FACEBOOK-and-INSTAGRAM_ad27d020-18ce-4c4d-9a1c-4190f258cd37-.jpg

[j44ke]

Thanks!

So even though more people are being hospitalized and dying in LA County than Oregon (1800 hospitalizations and 33 daily deaths compared to 8 for Oregon), the Kaiser urgent care is nowhere near capacity. Nearly empty last night. However, full recovery is on the immediate horizon. Interestingly enough we learned that my wife was part of a cluster of vaccinated individuals. All symptomatic.

Whew. Glad your wife is doing better.

[beeatnik]

Delta Breakthrough Update, Aug 22, 2021

We're making chocolate chip waffles this morning.

Bought sinus meds yesterday.

[j44ke]

Delta Breakthrough Update, Aug 22, 2021

We're making chocolate chip waffles this morning.

Bought sinus meds yesterday.

Good news. Chocolate is 100% better recovery remedy than ivermectin ever was, could have been, might have been, never was.

Related to recovery, I found this article super confusing. Not the article itself, but the inability to get a drug that is 1.) free B.) available and *.) successfully tested as a remedy by a former President of the US of A, to people who would benefit.

Catch 22 seems to be deploying this early and often would reduce work load for overworked nursing staffs at hospitals because of reduction in number of hospitalizations but nursing staffs at hospitals are overworked due to the number of hospitalizations so there aren't enough nurses to perform the infusions and observe patients for the procedure to be deployed early and often.

Army medical teams?

EDIT: Second link corrected. Duh. Sorry.

[beeatnik]

J, is that article about monoclonal antibody therapy?

Speaking of treatment, as per our provider:

kaizer.jpg

Limited research...

Good news. Chocolate is 100% better recovery remedy than ivermectin ever was, could have been, might have been, never was.

Related to recovery, I found this article super confusing. Not the article itself, but the inability to get a drug that is 1.) free B.) available and *.) successfully tested as a remedy by a former President of the US of A, to people who would benefit.

Catch 22 seems to be deploying this early and often would reduce work load for overworked nursing staffs at hospitals because of reduction in number of hospitalizations but nursing staffs at hospitals are overworked due to the number of hospitalizations so there aren't enough nurses to perform the infusions and observe patients for the procedure to be deployed early and often.

Army medical teams?

[zetroc]

I'm glad your wife is doing better. Please encourage others to get vaccinated.

[beeatnik]

I'm glad your wife is doing better. Please encourage others to get vaccinated.

We don't know any unvaccinated persons. But I will encourage my vaccinated friends and family under 50 to monitor their health status and if they have allergies to be especially alert. There's evidence that asymptomatic cases in the vaccinated are 10-15x higher than reported where we live. That would mean 270k to 400K in LA County. Did we suddenly change our minds about asymptomatic transmission?

[j44ke]

J, is that article about monoclonal antibody therapy?

Speaking of treatment, as per our provider:

kaizer.jpg

Limited research...

Yes, sorry. Bad cut and paste on my part. Monoclonal antibodies.

I was told they were extremely expensive. This article says they are free. That the procedure is not covered by insurance. This article says insurance, medicaid, medicare cover the procedure. A friend's doctor told her (she's 75 years old, a former public health nurse in NYC, trying to keep up with The Knowledge) they were an internet thing. The article says they are FDA approved for treatment and prophylactic use.

I don't know.

[Matthew Strongin]

Did we suddenly change our minds about asymptomatic transmission?

That depends. What was our opinion before we may have changed our minds?

[beeatnik]

That depends. What was our opinion before we may have changed our minds?

It's no bueno.

[Matthew Strongin]

It's no bueno.

As in the general opinion is that asymptomatic transmission doesn't happen? Not trying to be dense, I just want to make sure I understand your point. Personally, my family and I have continued to be very careful even post vaccination. My son is too young to be vaccinated and my parents are old enough that a breakthrough infection could be very bad and it makes sense to me that even vaccinated people can be transmission vectors.

[beeatnik]

I meant that the messaging has been that asymptomatic transmission is prevalent. It was the earliest or first argument for universal masking. It seems that policy or possibly perception has shifted. If that weren't the case then there would be more concern about a few hundred thousand asymptomatic breakthrough infections in LA County. In other words, are these people responsible for ongoing transmission?

As in the general opinion is that asymptomatic transmission doesn't happen? Not trying to be dense, I just want to make sure I understand your point. Personally, my family and I have continued to be very careful even post vaccination. My son is too young to be vaccinated and my parents are old enough that a breakthrough infection could be very bad and it makes sense to me that even vaccinated people can be transmission vectors.

How contagious is Delta? If one wouldn't go on a group ride pre-vaccines, should one be comfortable in the setting below at a time of waning efficacy?

pelosi.jpg

pelosi2.jpg

[j44ke]

I meant that the messaging has been that asymptomatic transmission is prevalent. It was the earliest or first argument for universal masking. It seems that policy or possibly perception has shifted. If that weren't the case then there would be more concern about a few hundred thousand asymptomatic breakthrough infections in LA County. In other words, are these people responsible for ongoing transmission?



How contagious is Delta? If one wouldn't go on a group ride pre-vaccines, should one be comfortable in the setting below at a time of waning efficacy?

pelosi.jpg

pelosi2.jpg

That photo makes me a bit queasy.

[vertical_doug]

Japan reported 82.5% of all new cases are in unvaccinated. 9% are unknown. 3% are in double vaxxed and the balance single vaxxed. I have sympathy for the Japanese people since the Japanese Gov has been slow to roll out the vaccination program while goofying around the Olympics while the Japanese People are not showing any of the hesitantcy of European or US citizens.
This is a failure of the Gov.

For the US on the otherhand, it is not a failure of GOV, it is the failure of the people to get vaccinated. If asymptomatic spread is possible from vaccinated people, you can either get vaccinated to improve your outcomes, or chose to roll the dice. At this point in the US or Europe, the unvaccinated own their outcomes.