Covid19

[Chik]

I thought this was an interesting proposal - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2007263 - especially the section about differentiating five different populations:

1. Infected
2. Presumed to be infected
3. Exposed
4. Not known to be exposed or infected
5. Recovered

Response to each group will focus resources and speed recovery of our society and economy.

It's a short read, I'm curious to hear others' thoughts.

Nice idea.

Sadly, I can't see the US implementing it.

[Chik]

Some background on vaccine developments, including likely timelines, in this piece from The Conversation: Where are we at with developing a vaccine for coronavirus?.
Written by experts as usual for this outlet.

Speaking of T-cells, this was just announced: SARS‑CoV‑2 PepTivator(R) Peptide Pools | T cell research - USA. Hopefully, it will be useful in developing an effective and safe vaccine.

(Disclosure: a schoolmate is a senior boffin at Miltenyi although this was not his work.)

[davids]

Just lost a colleague to COVID-19. A wife lost a husband and children lost their dad. Not even sure how to process this yet because the last three weeks have been too surreal. Hunkered down in my house, my only connection to this virus has been isolation and the news media. I've learned new jargon like 'PPE' and 'social distancing' and I use them in conversation now. Lately I've grown intensely interested whenever the newsfeeds provide the numbers of positive tests, deaths, masks, respirators, etc. All the things being counted in these strange times -- it seemed to matter. All of it is meaningless now.

Stay healthy, V-Salon

I'm so sorry.

[guido]

How Fast the Coronavirus Outbreak Is Growing in Hundreds of U.S. Communities - The New York Times

[thollandpe]

This from one of my clients today:

"For nearly a month now, we at [Commercial Construction Firm] have undertaken diligent and proactive safety steps on all of our projects, exceeding even the most recent standards required by many local health officials. We have been privileged to be considered an Essential Service by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, and to be able to continue working in a restricted way.

As principals of [Commercial Construction Firm], we have determined that the social distancing approach is not going to be effective in the Covid 19 environment going forward. Our responsibilities for the lives and well-being of hundreds of souls on our projects, through our own staffs and subcontractors, must be first order priority. Symptomatic individuals are now appearing in the workforce, so the disease has arrived.

Effective Friday April 3, we are taking the unprecedented step of suspending all field operations for 4-6 weeks. We hope to be back at work very soon. We will continue our remote office functions at full pace, processing the documentation, pricing our work, and servicing our clients.

We will be providing visual, regular, logged oversight of job locations, and will be notifying authorities of the stopped work.

Two people cannot install a 5’ window and remain 6’ apart. Same for concrete forms, or mini-splits [air conditioning units], or drywall. What we do know is that any illusions of isolation here in Western Massachusetts are gone.

We know from the best professionals in the medical fields that this disease arrives quietly without symptoms, and self-isolating after symptoms is too late for everyone else. We had two weeks of near-quarantine and are pretty sure none of our staff are sick, though they may yet become so. And we know the Boston crest of infections and medical system overload is anticipated for about three weeks hence. Observation of the disease shows that early overreaction may, in fact, be just in time. We hope so. We also hope that this suspension will prove to have been unnecessary.

With more than 45 years under our belts, we have experience of floods, earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, accidents, extreme temperatures, hazardous materials, infestations, and the like. But this is different. Countries where testing and isolation have been done rigorously and preemptively, and where medical equipment has been stockpiled, have fared far better. We are not living in one of them.

As important as our work is, to us and to our clients and communities, it is not essential while in this pandemic, and we cannot place the inevitable additional burden on emergency services what will result from continued work."

Act quickly, act conservatively, heed the warnings, and stay vigilant. A storm is coming. We're all in this together.

[davids]

Act quickly, act conservatively, heed the warnings, and stay vigilant. A storm is coming. We're all in this together.

Thanks for sharing that.

One correction to your statement though: The storm is here. And it's going to keep gaining strength as this month goes on.

[Tom]

Got word that a teammate with four sons at home has one that is showing all the symptoms. They have him isolated in a room, he says they are like a hospital ward - shields, gloves, the works. I am extremely concerned because it's as mentioned above - family unit in a house, no telling how long the son showing symptoms has been carrying... and my teammate is working like normal (from home). I can't imagine. I'd be freaking out worried for everyone.

[j44ke]

I was just at the local IGA. The IGA should get a medal and $500,000 for their local service. The manager is great. NYC people moved up slowly but surely, and he responded by bringing in muesli, more fresh fruit, local cheese, etc. etc. Things priced outside most of his regular clientele and not needed by NYC people (like my wife and I) but seeing it says welcome in a way that shows real class. Toilet paper at 2 rolls per visit. And he's got his regular butcher cutting meat and his baker making birthday cakes and if there needed to be a confessional and an astrologer I suspect he'd have that too. No glamor, just perceptive response to needs.

[beeatnik]

Our Bubble

Location Data Says It All: Staying at Home During Coronavirus Is a Luxury - The New York Times

[zachateseverything]

I've got a cousin and an uncle that have mild cases. My cousin is a nurse anesthetist and she likely caught it at work and brought it home to my uncle. She's already back to work. Since there aren't that many surgeries happening they have her working as a receptionist. My uncle is thankfully on the mend as well.

[j44ke]

This is why we can't have nice masks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...0d0_story.html

[robin3mj]

I work from home (even pre-COVID), and in line of sight from my desk is the portajohn in the yard of a house undergoing a full gut-rehab. Anywhere from 2-8 people are working at the house on any given day, even up to now.
Anyway, the john is also used by a curiously large number of runners/joggers. We are 3+ weeks into Virginia being on shelter in place, schools cancelled, etc. And runners are STILL using this toilet on a regular basis!
They cannot seriously believe it gets cleaned any more often than when the john company swaps out a full one for a fresh one.
Boggles the mind.

[Saab2000]

To whichever mod or mods who helped facilitate the improved discussion here and the related threads, thank you.

[mnoble485]

I work from home (even pre-COVID), and in line of sight from my desk is the portajohn in the yard of a house undergoing a full gut-rehab. Anywhere from 2-8 people are working at the house on any given day, even up to now.
Anyway, the john is also used by a curiously large number of runners/joggers. We are 3+ weeks into Virginia being on shelter in place, schools cancelled, etc. And runners are STILL using this toilet on a regular basis!
They cannot seriously believe it gets cleaned any more often than when the john company swaps out a full one for a fresh one.
Boggles the mind.

Matt,
It would boggle your mind more if you knew they don’t swap them out but just “suck” them out. New source for toilet paper if you run low. Just hold your nose.

Mike

[j44ke]

Lady walking out of the post office to her car wearing a mask stopped and sneezed, then kind of stood there like “what do I do now?”

Every trip outside is a million little decisions.

[ides1056]

Pretty much everyone at the coop today had a mask on and we were pulsed through the place. Okay by me. People are taking it seriously here.

My son had a fever last night and my wife pitched a wobbly. Today he is fine, no fever.

I don't think panic mode is any use at all.

[thollandpe]

I've been following the numbers on Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,97,81 Cases and 59,14 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

For the US, there are graphs for total cases, active cases, and total deaths.

For other countries, such as South Korea, they also have graphs for new cases vs. new recoveries (the latter exceeds the former in South Korea), and outcome of cases (recovery rate vs. death rate). In South Korea, those rates approached 50/50 in the beginning of March, and are now 97.2% recovery and 2.8% fatality.

Does anyone know why those last two graphs are not available for the US?

[Clean39T]

Our Bubble

Location Data Says It All: Staying at Home During Coronavirus Is a Luxury - The New York Times

I left my apartment yesterday for about 20min - drove to the local foodie depot where a flat of local, organic produce and some prepped goods were put into my automatically-opened trunk - that's the first time in a week I've been outside.. I'm 15 stories up in the air, plugged into the matrix, working 10 hr days, riding the smart-trainer, and waiting to see what happens.

[vertical_doug]

I've been following the numbers on Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,97,81 Cases and 59,14 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

For the US, there are graphs for total cases, active cases, and total deaths.

For other countries, such as South Korea, they also have graphs for new cases vs. new recoveries (the latter exceeds the former in South Korea), and outcome of cases (recovery rate vs. death rate). In South Korea, those rates approached 50/50 in the beginning of March, and are now 97.2% recovery and 2.8% fatality.

Does anyone know why those last two graphs are not available for the US?

I do not see the data for South Korea anymore. I only see it on the top page for world.
They publish the data daily on the table, so you can track it and create your own graph. Go to the wayback machine. (If you want to blame JK for hiding data, be my guest)


In the beginning, I don't think the data means much more than the lack of testing reveals under-reported infections. Initially, only the really sick get tested and then with time lags for recovery versus people with underlying health issues die. That's why initially the data in US was really skewed because of the Washington State Nursing home cases.

For example, in NYC right now there are 56,000 infections and 1800 deaths for 3.2%. But Cuomo says we are getting close to running out of Vents. At that point, outcomes worsen and you look more like Italy with 10%.

[Too Tall]

Groundhog Day.

See you tomorrow.

Sheesh.