Covid19

[j44ke]

@Mark Kelly, good points about the lagging indicators and I do concur.
My worry is society will "relax too soon" before we are truly out of the woods.
For those in the northern hemisphere the springtime weather will lure many out. :-(

Yes, when the original edict to stay home came out, I figured that 3 weeks was going to be as long as most people would be able to manage that kind of restriction. After that, cabin fever, fear of economic ruin, family arguments, screaming kids, were going to drive people out of the house. Or at least make them less careful. And that loss of patience might actually coincide with the moment of peak rate for infections. So you'd have people exiting their domestic Petri dishes right at the wrong moment.

[davids]

I could add my own stories of friends & associates and their halfway attempts at social distancing. But I won't.

It's clear that as a society it's going to be imperfect. I just hope and pray that it will be good enough for long enough to save many lives.

[Blue Jays]

"...Yes, when the original edict to stay home came out, I figured that 3 weeks was going to be as long as most people would be able to manage that kind of restriction. After that, cabin fever, fear of economic ruin, family arguments, screaming kids, were going to drive people out of the house. Or at least make them less careful. And that loss of patience might actually coincide with the moment of peak rate for infections. So you'd have people exiting their domestic Petri dishes right at the wrong moment..."

Concur 1000%.
If there was a *magic wand* and this global nightmare HAD to occur, it would have been better occurring second week of January.

It absolutely concerns me that emerging gorgeous springtime weather will be a fatal temptress.
It is difficult to look through the window and acknowledge an invisible microscopic killer is outside.

[j44ke]

I have been troubled from the beginning by the declaration that "If you have symptoms, the test doesn't matter because the treatment is the same either way."

We have:

people who have been infected and are not symptomatic

people who are symptomatic and not infected

people who are symptomatic and infected

people who are one of the above and are going to recover

people who are one of the first three and are going to die

people who are infected and die of pneumonia

people who are infected and die of heart/blood infections

people who are infected, develop pneumonia and recover

people who are infected, develop heart ailment and recover

etc. etc. etc.

Obviously a treatment rubric is evolving and likely being shared among medical personnel globally. A friend is research physician (cancer) in California and the number of other doctors operating in similar capacity around the world that he knows on a first name basis is astonishing. Someone figures something out and by 10AM the next morning, everyone else is running tests.

Not having the information from testing as many people as humanly possible seems like the big miss in all of this.

[gt6267a]

i cannot find the link but there is an article from an epidemiologist talking about how seemingly innocent crossover spreads the virus so effectively its like there is no isolation / social distancing. a boy visits a gf, the boys mom has coffee with a neighbor. next thing you know there is a connection from the girlfriend's mom's co-worker through to the mom's husband and his parents. every connection multiplies incredibly fast. the idea that we'll partially lock down the country and kick this thing is unrealistic. if people can't self-select to lock it down, they will need help.

[Sbti]

.99 gas and nowhere to go!

[zachateseverything]

Local authorities had to basically shut down Mount Washington here in NH over the weekend. Parking lots full (more than half MA plates, according to police) and cars parked for half a mile down the state road to Pinkham Notch.
I don't know how anyone in their right mind could drive up to that clusterf**k and think that proceeding with their Saturday hiking plan could be a good idea.

Yeah, I don't get it. Who sees an overflowing parking lot during a time when we're supposed to be avoiding other people and thinks this is the place they should be? Yet I see overflowing parking lots in the nearby national park.

[Sbti]

Aptly named.
U.S. Open Venue in Flushing Meadows Corona Park to Host 350-Bed Hospital

[beeatnik]

Actually they do. You have countless front line medical worker begging for people to stay home and totally mad when they see people jogging or riding in their nice fluorescent kits.

Exactly, my brother in law is a Cath Lab specialist and he's being asked to assist in areas outside his department. In any case he sent my sister the following yesterday:

I'm good; however, the even the doctors are contaminating the room and staff. Exposing everyone with intubation and extubation. I'm protected but I see every mistake. The anesthesiologists have poor skills.

That combined with images of cyclists and hikers has seriously raised my sister's anxiety. What the best trained health care professionals process when they see or hear stories about careful(free) cyclists is another COVID-19 patient in their hospital. It's not a good look for us.

[crumpton]

I’ve had enough loogie in the face from large field road racing and crits to know it’s impossible to ride in a group and not exchange some bio stuff regardless of how small. I won’t ride outdoors within 100’ of anyone outside my household full stop.

[gregl]

Yes, when the original edict to stay home came out, I figured that 3 weeks was going to be as long as most people would be able to manage that kind of restriction. After that, cabin fever, fear of economic ruin, family arguments, screaming kids, were going to drive people out of the house. Or at least make them less careful. And that loss of patience might actually coincide with the moment of peak rate for infections. So you'd have people exiting their domestic Petri dishes right at the wrong moment.

I spoke with a paramedic last Friday. I thanked him for his service and asked how things were going from his point of view. He said that calls were up with the increase caused by domestic disputes. Lots of unhealthy or borderline relationships are being pushed to the brink (and beyond).

Greg

[Matthew Strongin]

I spoke with a paramedic last Friday. I thanked him for his service and asked how things were going from his point of view. He said that calls were up with the increase caused by domestic disputes. Lots of unhealthy or borderline relationships are being pushed to the brink (and beyond).

Greg

I've been worrying about this. I'm very fortunate to be in a very healthy and strong relationship and after 3 weeks locked in the house together we can tell there's some stress/tension. I can't even imagine what it's like for someone who fears their partner.

[htwoopup]

I've been worrying about this. I'm very fortunate to be in a very healthy and strong relationship and after 3 weeks locked in the house together we can tell there's some stress/tension. I can't even imagine what it's like for someone who fears their partner.

Along those lines, I remember reading (and this was early in the social distance/stay home thing) that in Illinois the calls to child abuse hotlines were down by something like 50%. And that is not a good thing. As you undoubtedly realize, it is because the kids and thus suspicious clues weren’t being seen by outsiders.

[Too Tall]

Good reminder to continue waking Mrs. Too with fresh hot coffee every morning.

Hug your significant other.

[guido]

Hot coffee in the morning, herb tea and chocolate at night. Lots of care and feeding of those we love...

[crumpton]

Placed here rather than political thread because I felt it’s more a cautionary story regarding new estimates from the administration on US fatalities. Seems the 100k-240k fatalities are based on 5 criteria that have yet to be met nationwide. Folks, stay at home.

Mods, feel free to move it to the other thread.

From NPR

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/824744490/5-key-facts-the-white-house-isnt-saying-about-their-covid-19-projections

5 Key Facts Not Explained In White House COVID-19 Projections

[Will Neide]

Along those lines, I remember reading (and this was early in the social distance/stay home thing) that in Illinois the calls to child abuse hotlines were down by something like 50%. And that is not a good thing. As you undoubtedly realize, it is because the kids and thus suspicious clues weren’t being seen by outsiders.

According to folks in my family involved with teaching and education, this is becoming a real concern. Especially with teachers zooming with students and having an inside look into the students home. What to do if they see or hear something while online with the students is going to be a challenge for teachers.

[bcm119]

For me it has nothing to do with this. In 40 years of riding I had to use medical services only twice (knock on wood). So yeah risks are super low and I am not worried about this or worried about spreading the virus alone on trails. But we are not allowed to go out more than once a day to exercise and not more than one hour and not farther than 1km from your house. You can choose to ignore it because you have a rational analysis on the fact that you are not taking any risks and not risking anybody else either. You can further rationalize that this rules are made for people living in cities large cities (I am not). So you have plenty of people making their own rules, are they spreading the virus: no. Are they overwhelming the hospitals: no. Are they acting responsively: no. Let's lead by example.

I'm in the Lionel camp. The only way to beat the virus is to jump over the cliff at the same time as everyone else. It's a leap of faith in a collective result that simply can't be rationalized at the individual level. And it's very unamerican, which, despite the royal f-up of our dear president, is the main reason the US is having such a rough time with this virus. We don't like to fall in line, but we have to.

[Lionel]

I'm in the Lionel camp. The only way to beat the virus is to jump over the cliff at the same time as everyone else. It's a leap of faith in a collective result that simply can't be rationalized at the individual level. And it's very unamerican, which, despite the royal f-up of our dear president, is the main reason the US is having such a rough time with this virus. We don't like to fall in line, but we have to.

It really pains me when I see that you can fly anywhere domestically in the US right now. Wow, really, come on, go to JFK fly anywhere? really ? It's is going to take way too long in the US and cost way too many lives. It has costed way too many lives in France, Italy and Spain already. These countries are also not well know for easily "falling in line" and reacted late, did not follow the protocol, etc... Only when the death toll climbs and the restrictions got very tight and very specific did it start to flatten the curve.

[Lionel]

Here in France talks about how we will exit the SIP are starting to take place. This is going to be another massive mess as testing is nowhere near where it should be (by a very very long shot). There is talk about doing it for certain regions first and stage it over time.