Covid19

[Blue Jays]

"...We're completely isolated from the rest of our family, despite pleas from both my son and our parents to have real life contact. We haven't eaten anything we didn't prepare ourselves in over 3 weeks. We have developed an insane process for transitioning groceries from the delivery person to our kitchen. We're taking this seriously. Being alone outside with fresh air is pretty low on the list of risk factors..."

Same here. The procedure of having a disinfectant-soaked cloth wipe everything will become a "new normal" eventually.
For now it certainly adds complication. Going to the grocery store takes far longer because of all the precautionary steps.
Sanitizing door handles, steering wheel, and trunk surfaces after every trip? It all likely doubles the time needed for tasks.

[Mark Kelly]

monastic anhedonia is not an evidence-based antiviral.

That is absolute gold, Lou. Thanks.

[Paul Jacobs]

The UK Government closed all retail businesses on 23 March 2020 with some exceptions, for example supermarkets and pharmacies. Of the exceptions specifically mentioned are bicycle shops.

Closing certain businesses and venues - GOV.UK

[Too Tall]

Lionel, read the Maryland restrictions which are specific regarding dog walking, running and bicycle riding. All are recommended for "short periods".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...63d_story.html

Myself, I'm honoring that by sticking to my well known route and staying the eff away from people.

I'll start working on my manifesto just in case.

[Lionel]

Lionel, read the Maryland restrictions which are specific regarding dog walking, running and bicycle riding. All are recommended for "short periods".
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...63d_story.html

Myself, I'm honoring that by sticking to my well known route and staying the eff away from people.

I'll start working on my manifesto just in case.

Yeah, this is how it started here about 2 weeks ago. The problem is what is short ? What is not far ?
In France this is how we got to very specific measures: once per day alone, less than 1h, less than 1km from home.

[thollandpe]

The Massachusetts Building Trades Council is asking the governor to suspend all construction activity for the entire month of April, except for emergency work and essential projects. Essential being healthcare facilities, mandated work, transportation reliability, utility repair, and the like.

Massachusetts Building Trades Council votes unanimously to call for a statewide suspension of all regular activity at construction sites in Massachusetts - MBTC

[Too Tall]

Yeah, this is how it started here about 2 weeks ago. The problem is what is short ? What is not far ?
In France this is how we got to very specific measures: once per day alone, less than 1h, less than 1km from home.

I can give you a link to how MD State Troopers interpret this but you get it. Reasonable citizens are assumed first to be aware of current laws and use reasonable interpretations blah blah blah. *IF* Law enforcement happens to come in contact with you, for any reason, and observes apparent evidence you are exceeding the intent laid out by our fair Governor than you my friend are busted.

[zachateseverything]

In Ohio leaving the house for exercise is ok as long as you maintain social distancing. Since I'm going out on the road bike alone and not getting within 6 feet of anyone it's kosher. I see a lot of people out and about in the neighborhood and walking on the hiking trails that are clearly not following the rules so I wouldn't at all be surprised if this gets tightened down further.

[Mark Kelly]

The good news is the US infection rate curve is showing a reduction in the rate of increase, the doubling time is now out over 5 days.

The bad news is that the death rate is predictably lagging, it currently has a doubling time around 3 days which is equivalent to a factor of ten in ten days*.

It looks like the rate lag is somewhere around 15 days and coincidentally the number lag is also around there so a simple predictor of the future death curve can be made by time shifting the case number curve by that much, eg in fifteen days the death number will possibly be around where the case number is now.

Of course there are lots of sources of error in this, some positive (eg improved response), some negative (eg healthcare getting overwhelmed). I sincerely hope the positives win.



*2¹⁰ is roughly 10³, so multiply the doubling time by 3.3 to get the time to increase by an order of magnitude.

[Lionel]

I would be very (happily) surprised if the infections are slowing down in the US yet. No way.

[Blue Jays]

@Mark Kelly, good points about the lagging indicators and I do concur.
My worry is society will "relax too soon" before we are truly out of the woods.
For those in the northern hemisphere the springtime weather will lure many out. :-(

[Mark Kelly]

I would be very (happily) surprised if the infections are slowing down in the US yet. No way.

I hope you are wrong but I suspect you are right. I edited my post and took the "definitely" out of the first sentence.

[Mark Kelly]

@Mark Kelly, good points about the lagging indicators and I do concur.
My worry is society will "relax too soon" before we are truly out of the woods.
For those in the northern hemisphere the springtime weather will lure many out. :-(

What, like believing someone who says this will all be over by Easter?

[Blue Jays]

What, like believing someone who says this will all be over by Easter?

Good grief, @Mark Kelly. Does every post, in every thread, need to be political?
I was concurring with you that we need to all continue to do what we can to help.

[zachateseverything]

I hope you are wrong but I suspect you are right. I edited my post and took the "definitely" out of the first sentence.

I think what we'll see in the US is that the results are going to be very regional since we have a patchwork of responses that very from stringent to abysmal and it's not like we started with some kind of uniform distribution of initial cases.

My state has been sheltered in place for over two weeks now and we're seeing decreases in the number of new cases per day despite increased testing capacity.

[Chik]

Basically, this supports Matt and others to ride outside solo away from people. The simulation is closed air environment, so your biggest risk will be if you live in multi-family residential and ride elevator, stairwell or other closed room. (hallway with poor ventilation) Once you are outside, it is quickly dispersed.

It's pretty simple Brownian motion. Just ride on windy days. If this is too high a probability of being infected, we are literally all doomed.

Wind could be a friend or a foe, depending on which way it's blowing relative to you and the guy that just sneezed, coughed or launched a snot rocket, no?

This article discusses sensible distances to maintain when cycling, but it doesn't take into account wind speed and direction, which is understandable as you can't account for all variables. Which is why it can be a dodgy proposition to ride outside.

We are still encouraged to go out for walks and rides in Belgium (but not in groups), but I haven't been out for a ride in about 3 weeks. Until this afternoon. Because it's beautiful outside. And so did many others.

Cycle paths are too narrow to keep a sensible distance from all other users. Bit of head wind made me feel uncomfortable.

I turned around and went home.

[gregl]

In Ohio leaving the house for exercise is ok as long as you maintain social distancing. Since I'm going out on the road bike alone and not getting within 6 feet of anyone it's kosher. I see a lot of people out and about in the neighborhood and walking on the hiking trails that are clearly not following the rules so I wouldn't at all be surprised if this gets tightened down further.

Here in suburban/rural central NY, elected authorities and law enforcement are warning people to keep sufficient distance when exercising outside. A local multi-use recreation area has signs posted by the mayor stating "*FAILURE TO COMPLAY MAY RESULT IN THE CLOSURE OF PARKS*". With one notable exception, local cycling clubs and teams have stopped group rides until further notice. Hopefully the "notable exception" will feel the peer pressure and stop riding together. As for me and my family, it's solo rides only, taking every precaution to avoid injury. On yesterday's ride, I saw a total of two other cyclists (who were also riding solo). Dog walks and hikes are in areas where there will be little or no human contact.

Greg

[Too Tall]

Hey Chik are you ok this really threw me. You are in Belgium right? >> "Bit of head wind made me feel uncomfortable."

I'll take a knee and wait for your response.

[monadnocky]

Here in suburban/rural central NY, elected authorities and law enforcement are warning people to keep sufficient distance when exercising outside. A local multi-use recreation area has signs posted by the mayor stating "*FAILURE TO COMPLAY MAY RESULT IN THE CLOSURE OF PARKS*". With one notable exception, local cycling clubs and teams have stopped group rides until further notice. Hopefully the "notable exception" will feel the peer pressure and stop riding together. As for me and my family, it's solo rides only, taking every precaution to avoid injury. On yesterday's ride, I saw a total of two other cyclists (who were also riding solo). Dog walks and hikes are in areas where there will be little or no human contact.

Local authorities had to basically shut down Mount Washington here in NH over the weekend. Parking lots full (more than half MA plates, according to police) and cars parked for half a mile down the state road to Pinkham Notch.
I don't know how anyone in their right mind could drive up to that clusterf**k and think that proceeding with their Saturday hiking plan could be a good idea.

[Chik]

Hey Chik are you ok this really threw me. You are in Belgium right? >> "Bit of head wind made me feel uncomfortable."

I'll take a knee and wait for your response.

Hahaha!