Covid19

[cash05458]

Got banned for life across the hall....I am sure I know some here...across, everyone is into we are all going to die, or our best...hell half of them are claiming they already have this thing...I learned there not to say anything positive...certainly don't mean to offend coming over here that this won't be as bad as we all seem to want...

[j44ke]

Got banned for life across the hall....I am sure I know some here...across, everyone is into we are all going to die, or our best...hell half of them are claiming they already have this thing...I learned there not to say anything positive...certainly don't mean to offend coming over here that this won't be as bad as we all seem to want...

Welcome.

Be sure to introduce yourself in the welcome thread:

https://www.velocipedesalon.com/foru...ay-hi-325.html

Also, our discussion of Covid-19 is split into three categories. This thread is concerned with factual information - statistics, expert experience, and questions. There is another thread for political content. The utmost respect for others is strongly encouraged as is supporting claims. The third is light humor, irony - a bit a levity as a relief.

Please participate in the bicycle aspect of the place. Handbuilt bicycles is the obsession of the house. Most housework is focused thusly.

[crumpton]

There videos of their home offices just confirms what I always suspected, these people have poor tastes. . .

We can hang!

[Mark Kelly]

Early days yet but it is possible that the US rate of infection is starting to slow.

I wrote before that the doubling rate indicated by the logarithmic plot at worldometer was about 2.4 days. It looks like it's now out to about 4 days. Hopefully this means the curve is starting to flatten.

[guido]

USA coronavirus: Covid-19 may hit rural America later — and harder - Vox

"More than half of counties in America have no hospital ICU beds, posing a particular risk for the more than 7 million people over the age of 60 living in those places, who are at higher risk of severe cases of Covid-19."

[Mark Walberg]

We got yer COVID19 thread aaaaand your COVID19 light hearted thread aaaaaand the COVID19 political thread. Pick two.

Sorry Too Tall.
Making all these posts is not like me.
I'm just agitated because of the knowledge that the folks running this show had the info in early January about what was coming. Yet, they didn't start doing much at all to prepare for the safety of those having to treat the sick until mid to late March (although some did Burr their stock), and not enough even now.
I got an email at work last week that said that it is OK for me to bring bandanas from home if I want to.

Thanks for calling me out.
I've got a grip now. I'll just watch for a while.

[guido]

Sorry Too Tall.
Making all these posts is not like me.
I'm just agitated because of the knowledge that the folks running this show had the info in early January about what was coming. Yet, they didn't start doing much at all to prepare for the safety of those having to treat the sick until mid to late March (although some did Burr their stock), and not enough even now.
I got an email at work last week that said that it is OK for me to bring bandanas from home if I want to.

Thanks for calling me out.
I've got a grip now. I'll just watch for a while.

Don't go too far away. I have been digging your posts...

[guido]

Got banned for life across the hall....I am sure I know some here...across, everyone is into we are all going to die, or our best...hell half of them are claiming they already have this thing...I learned there not to say anything positive...certainly don't mean to offend coming over here that this won't be as bad as we all seem to want...

Greetings friend!

[j44ke]

Fuuuuuuuuuu~~~~~~~~~kkkk

N.Y.C.’s 911 System Is Overwhelmed. ‘I’m Terrified,’ a Paramedic Says. - The New York Times

[Drew]

Early days yet but it is possible that the US rate of infection is starting to slow.

I wrote before that the doubling rate indicated by the logarithmic plot at worldometer was about 2.4 days. It looks like it's now out to about 4 days. Hopefully this means the curve is starting to flatten.

I will raise a beer to that. Thanks for a glimmer of good news!

[vertical_doug]

Early days yet but it is possible that the US rate of infection is starting to slow.

I wrote before that the doubling rate indicated by the logarithmic plot at worldometer was about 2.4 days. It looks like it's now out to about 4 days. Hopefully this means the curve is starting to flatten.

That's a possibility. The other possibility is you hit your testing upper bound so your number gets pegged. You have to wait for a few days to be sure.

The number is a about a 5 days lag now for getting results in the NYC area.

[Chik]

There are patients in ICUs who have no co-morbidities and are dying. This flies in the face of the content being pushed out by our leaders. Hell, I saw a CDC commercial on tv this morning spouting the co-morbidity warnings and my wife and I laughed and said "these folks haven't been inside an ICU, have they?" The co-morbidity thing is real (you're at higher risk, for sure) but there are plenty of 'healthy' people who are really sick. I'm not sure why that is being downplayed.

Been thinking about what you said. Do you think it's because the authorities, including the WHO, want to prevent an all-out panic? Or, is it because information is not going up the food chain?

[vertical_doug]

Been thinking about what you said. Do you think it's because the authorities, including the WHO, want to prevent an all-out panic? Or, is it because information is not going up the food chain?

Chik, Although I will admit your skepticism on Japan was correct and my optimism was misplaced, but this I think smacks too much of conspiracy theory.. There are healthy people sick. There are young adults in ICUs. But healthy is a relative term. We are complicated machines run by 3gb of code. You are inserting 28k of code to hijack some of our code. There will be a range of response. I know of a young adult in ICU here. He may have some underlying condition and according to his friends he vaped. There is a lot of research going on now how pollutants can cause RNA modifications.

The reality is CDC/WHO just don't know that much about C19 and they think it prudent to not to speculate on worse case scenarios. If they speculate, they will be accused of crying wolf by the science deniers which may do even more harm. Look at how the science deniers in the US are attacking Fauci as trying to undermine Trump.

(you can just look at Tom Fitton for case in point)

[Chik]

Chik, Although I will admit your skepticism on Japan was correct and my optimism was misplaced, but this I think smacks too much of conspiracy theory.. There are healthy people sick. There are young adults in ICUs. But healthy is a relative term. We are complicated machines run by 3gb of code. You are inserting 28k of code to hijack some of our code. There will be a range of response. I know of a young adult in ICU here. He may have some underlying condition and according to his friends he vaped. There is a lot of research going on now how pollutants can cause RNA modifications.

The reality is CDC/WHO just don't know that much about C19 and they think it prudent to not to speculate on worse case scenarios. If they speculate, they will be accused of crying wolf by the science deniers which may do even more harm. Look at how the science deniers in the US are attacking Fauci as trying to undermine Trump.

(you can just look at Tom Fitton for case in point)

I'm looking at it with what I think is a healthy dose of scepticism, which is why I posed the questions.

In practical terms, for the general public, one question I have is whether the knowledge that it's not exceptional for young people with no co-morbidities to get really ill from the bug would or wouldn't change people's perspective and therefore behaviour with respect to social distancing, etc.

As for Japan, that was obvious to me because I know the Japanese all too well. All the signs were there, you just needed to recognise them, but if you're an observer from abroad, and particularly if you have positive images of the country, culture and people, then most signs were probably not evident. It's like sitting across the table from a would-be supplier and knowing he is just full of shit, or from a corrupt minister of a brutal regime and knowing he wouldn't think twice about cutting your throat (which is one of the few times when I felt a wee bit out of my depth).

[Mark Kelly]

That's a possibility. The other possibility is you hit your testing upper bound so your number gets pegged.

Acknowledged, which is why I called it as "possible".

IMO the death rate says that US testing has been inadequate from the get go, so I'm hoping the level of inadequacy has stayed more or less constant.

"Constantly inadequate" could be the leit motif for the response generally.

[guido]

FDA approves a coronavirus test that can give results in 5 minutes - Vox

[Too Tall]

Sorry Too Tall.
Making all these posts is not like me.
I'm just agitated because of the knowledge that the folks running this show had the info in early January about what was coming. Yet, they didn't start doing much at all to prepare for the safety of those having to treat the sick until mid to late March (although some did Burr their stock), and not enough even now.
I got an email at work last week that said that it is OK for me to bring bandanas from home if I want to.

Thanks for calling me out.
I've got a grip now. I'll just watch for a while.

Big old lingering man hugs to you buddy.

[davids]

Early days yet but it is possible that the US rate of infection is starting to slow.

I wrote before that the doubling rate indicated by the logarithmic plot at worldometer was about 2.4 days. It looks like it's now out to about 4 days. Hopefully this means the curve is starting to flatten.

That is good news. But don't let anyone think this means the number of sick is falling. It is not. It's merely beginning to increase at a slower rate.

A friend (Dr at MA Eye & Ear) told us last night that the info being communicated to Massachusetts hospitals is "peak caseload mid to late April."

Stay safe everyone, please!

[jclay]

Daily Family Report from Modena, IT

No problems so far for us.  Nationally, looks like the curve is inflecting toward flattening (see logarithmic plot for total cases identified Italy on the Johns Hopkins GIS site).  News now talks of extending lockdown by around 2 weeks, which might suffice to pass the peak unless the south blows up (lots of migrants working/studying in the north went home before that was forbidden and enforced).

A bigger question is financing essential economic support of the folks whose income has stopped. Employed folks will get special "cassa integrazione" (this keeps temporarily laid-off employees on their employers' rolls with the state paying a high percentage of their ordinary salary).  However, there is a large population of independent workers (like "self-employed" FedEx delivery drivers or gig workers in everything from IT to cleaning crews) and, especially in the south, black-economy workers (laborers, street vendors, ...).  There have already been incidents of such folks bypassing the cashiers and running out of supermarkets with carts full.  If police prevent that but without some other form of relief, there will literally be revolts in certain areas (e.g., Naples, parts of Sicily).  The government is moving rapidly to organize such support, probably via direct deposit to bank accounts and/or cash cards (at least for the unbanked).

The EU, led by Germany, Austria, and Holland absolutely refuse to permit a Keynesian response (i.e., "print" money and have the state employ people to provide public services and stimulate demand).  They conveniently forget how much free money their banks got in great recession QE (and that without it Germany would go near insolvent trying to cover Deutsche Bank's concealed insolvency). Likewise, they forget the US/UK/France created the modern Germany with universal forgiveness of private debt plus the Marshall Plan after the war and the EU allowed them to grossly violate its fiscal rules to re-integrate East Germany after the Iron Curtain fell. Nor do they recognize that the same EU "Stability and Growth [sic] Pact" that dictates austerity for Italy (enforced) also dictates an equally well-defined ceiling on Germany's net export imbalances with respect to their EU partners (continuously grossly exceeded and NOT enforced). Bottom line: EU rules say it's OK for the ECB to issue new Euros for irresponsible and insolvent megabanks, but not for states trying to keep their citizens medically cared-for, fed, and housed and their businesses surviving.

At least Germany's constitution includes and requires balanced budgets, no exceptions -- which any knowledgeable economist recognizes as auto-castration with respect to a state's ability to fight a recession or depression.  So they're arguing instead about issuing EU-guaranteed bonds, but the same nations don't want to be on the hook for that either.  In any case, no southern European state needs more debt but they sure as hell need more money to be issued and spent.

The best long-term result IMO would be the breakup of the Euro, but that doesn't help in the short to medium term (the experts I believe insist you can't establish a new currency in less than 3 years and that would only be possible with a moon-shot level of effort).  Instead, I fear that Italy, Spain, and maybe France will allow themselves to be backed into a corner of accepting long term austerity constraints (Macron likes those anyway) similar to those imposed on Greece in exchange for the EU "concession" of permitting them to issue more debt (of course, part of Italy's COVID-19 challenge is that austerity has downsized its health-care infrastructure by 1/4-1/3 over the last decade or so). If that happens, Greece points the way to our future, except that Italians and Spanish being less easily cowed (or at least not so greatly outnumbered), an explicitly anti-EU right wing will take over government within a few months.

Back to the epidemic ... we did some date checking and confirmed what has only rarely and vaguely been hinted at: a Spain-Italy soccer rivalry appears to be the "bomb" that set off the explosive spread of COVID-19 in Lombardy.  Atalanta (Brescia) and Valencia are in this year's finals of the UEFA league and a huge public match (45,792 paying fans, including locals and Spanish visitors) was played in Brescia on Feb. 19. Although the first two Italian clusters in the Codogno area (Lombardy) and Vò (Veneto) occurred before then, it appears their quick quarantines may have limited their direct transmission. The recognized case count for Italy first exceeded 100 and headed exponential exactly 4 days (median incubation period: 5.1 days) after the Feb. 19 Atalanta-Valencia match in Brescia, which is now, with its neighbor Bergamo, the worst-impacted area in Europe.

And closer to home, our move and apartment painting / improvement is frozen until small scale construction can resume, which as noted above, is likely to be no earlier than around Easter.

Well, that's all the news from Lake Wobegon. Keep your fingers crossed for us, as we will for you.  Bad as it is here, I'm counting on the US to win the race to the bottom.  Even given our EU fiscal and monetary strait-jacket, at least our government's responses to the epidemic, admittedly slow out of the gate, are now fully informed by epidemiologists and sociologists.  That seems to beat the US, where most of the money being flung about seems to be going to the usual finance and corporate parasites (and without conditions, e.g., no layoffs, no off-shoring production or profits, C-suite compensation limits, mandatory union/government Board membership, etc.), and even what little gets to individuals and small business manages to leave out the lowest economic strata.

[j44ke]

Hey John - Almost everyone on the site is reading all the Covid threads, so if you could just post in one or the other that would be most efficient. I would suggest the political thread but use your best judgement. Thanks!

BTW, the football match in Milan was attended by 40,000 citizens from Bergamo (Atalanta is their home team) and was reported several days ago. Capacity of the stadium itself is 80,000 people and Champion's League games are usually sell outs. So figure 40k from Bergamo and then 40k from elsewhere and Spain (Valencia) who then went home afterwards, evidently infected with the virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...adly-outbreak/