Covid19

[sk_tle]

That cult of personnality that has been growing every day towards Pr Raoult in France gives me a lot of fear. Not really about the potential issues that could arise with the use of hydroxylchloridrin on patients but more because it shows that people can become crazy stupid and believe anyone pretending having a solution for their problem and easily bring a government to its knee. With covid-19 and confinement procedures the world will be hit by an economic crisis and this kind of stupid collective behavior is opening the door to all the hitler 2.0 wanabees of this world.

[ides1056]

I like hanging with all you smart people.

Who needs fbook.

[Colinmclelland]

I just came back from a solo triathlete rules mental health ride.

We've basically been a locked down family for a week. The rest of Sydney...not so much it would seem. I appreciate people may already be buying less stuff they don't need (yes, I get the irony of someone on an N+1 custom bike forum saying that) but it's not exactly a ghost town out there.

Why do we have to wait until a crisis kicks us in the head before we start taking seriously the steps that might have averted it in the first place?

[Lionel]

That cult of personnality that has been growing every day towards Pr Raoult in France gives me a lot of fear. Not really about the potential issues that could arise with the use of hydroxylchloridrin on patients but more because it shows that people can become crazy stupid and believe anyone pretending having a solution for their problem and easily bring a government to its knee. With covid-19 and confinement procedures the world will be hit by an economic crisis and this kind of stupid collective behavior is opening the door to all the hitler 2.0 wanabees of this world.

I fear this a whole lot less that the Covid-19. It seems to me that he is on to something. And the guy is not anyone but one of the most respected epidemiologist in the world.

[Lionel]

@Lionel if you set your profile to private they won't be able to give you tickets.

I have been following the ban completely, I only ride on Zwift.

[Chik]

I don't think it is a disagreement with Ferguson, I think it is the misinterpretation of his 'CAVEAT'.

He is basing this on prolonged social distancing and isolation until a vaccine is available in `12-18 mo. ' He is saying this economic impact will be in years.

The practicality of a prolonged period of social distancing is were the assumption will break.

Is that saying that the social distancing variable could change the death toll in the UK by more than 400,000? That's roughly twice the military and civilian deaths suffered by the UK in WWII.

The modelling method used in the Oxford paper, which hasn't been peer-reviewed and has been receiving a fair bit of pummelling by academics from across the UK, seems to have as many holes as a sieve, but it appears to emphasise the importance of testing to fight this bug rather than taking swings in the dark.

[guido]

How to safely end social distancing and ease the Covid-19 pandemic - Vox

[j44ke]

PM Boris Johnson has tested positive.

[sk_tle]

PM Boris Johnson has tested positive.

And announced it with a #StayHomeSavesLives hashtag. That is the definition of irony if we needed one.

[Too Tall]

Poll update. With nearly 100 V-people reporting we have some easy math so it is worth a look:



Expect to get COVID19 in the next 365 days
64 65.31%

Do not expect to get COVID19 in the next 365 days
34 34.69%

[Lionel]

And announced it with a #StayHomeSavesLives hashtag. That is the definition of irony if we needed one.

Totally !

[Saab2000]

I have been following the ban completely, I only ride on Zwift.

This is admirable. I do my morning walks frequently, which are totally benign and I don't get near anyone on them. But my riding, if you can call it that where I live, has been on some trails and there it's not possible to avoid getting near others occasionally. Not sure what's the right call here.

As to other things, it's almost impossible to not go to the grocery store or do other 'essential' activities.

I had a 4-day trip (with many disruptions) that ended a week ago and am supposed to start another trip tomorrow though the entire thing has been cancelled. So my next trip isn't scheduled now until April 1 and that will also be subject to changes. Our flying is scheduled to be down by 28% but that number is likely to go way up.

It will be interesting to see how this affects the airlines. We've already seen huge cancellations and are flying largely empty airplanes around when we do fly. The leaders of my company, in response to concerns about whey we are flying at all, respond that we are an 'essential' part of the national transportation system and we do in fact carry freight, including medical supplies relevant to the current medical situation. So that's the answer to that.

I live alone so mostly this whole lockdown hasn't represented a huge change for me (yet) but clearly it's a giant change for a hundreds of millions.

[thollandpe]

Are there any experts in manufacturing here? Can somebody elaborate on what goes into a company like Tesla or GM (among others) who are changing some manufacturing capacity from automobiles to ventilators? How does this work?

These factories are highly automated and use robots programmed to perform specific motions and tasks with millimeter precision. How does that translate to making ventilators?

Anyone in manufacturing able to shed some light on how this would work?

GM and Medical Equipment Maker Prepping to Make 200,000 Ventilators

Securing the supply chain must be a huge challenge. What would be the time to get these up and running, and develop some kind of quality and test process?

I worked for Pratt & Whitney when the US Navy decided that it owned the design of the GE 404 engine (for the F-18) and that Pratt should be able to produce it. Theoretically possible that anyone can produce such a complex machine, given all the plans and specs, and having the experience and facilities to produce very similar machines. In reality, it was a bear of an undertaking.

That was hopeful, but as expected they're hitting some bumps in the road. The number has gone from 200,000 to 7,500 with a price tag of $1B.

Trump Administration Pulls Back From $1 Billion Coronavirus Ventilator Deal - The New York Times

I wonder what the logic was in publicly announcing such a deal when there was still so much to be worked out.

[Bobonli]

That was hopeful, but as expected they're hitting some bumps in the road. The number has gone from 200,000 to 7,500 with a price tag of $1B.

Trump Administration Pulls Back From $1 Billion Coronavirus Ventilator Deal - The New York Times

I wonder what the logic was in publicly announcing such a deal when there was still so much to be worked out.

Art of the Deal!

I hope companies are ramping up to make stuff that's actually useful in the hospitals. I've read about companies re-tooling to make lovely fabric designer face masks. No one's gonna put their life on the line wearing that in an ICU. I had someone from an engineering school offer me work gloves and welding shields. Thoughtful but not actually helpful.

And more to Saab's point, what about UL, FDA testing etc. Does Tesla just crank out vents and they get shipped to a hospital or do they go through the usual testing procedures? Or are they just making circuit boards or batteries (yes, there are batteries in a ventilator) that then go to the vent manufacturer?

[Mark Kelly]

it's not possible to avoid getting near others occasionally. Not sure what's the right call here.

Lovely simple piece of advice from Peter Doherty: Act as if you already have the disease and wish to avoid passing it on

FWIW he won the 1996 Nobel prize in Physiology and Medicine and his field is immunology so he probably has a clue.

[King Of Dirk]

I like hanging with all you smart people.

Who needs fbook.

This. A million times this.

[guido]

Coronavirus modelers factor in new public health risk: Accusations their work is a hoax | Washington Post

"Running beneath it all, in a continuous loop through our national psyche, are basic questions leaders are struggling to answer: When can we safely lift these quarantines? How many people could die if we do it too early? Just how dangerous will this pandemic turn out to be? And what exactly should be our next step?

This is why epidemiology exists. Its practitioners use math and scientific principles to understand disease, project its consequences, and figure out ways to survive and overcome it. Their models are not meant to be crystal balls predicting exact numbers or dates. They forecast how diseases will spread under different conditions. And their models allow policymakers to foresee challenges, understand trend lines and make the best decisions for the public good.

But one factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models."

[Saab2000]

So here's the skinny...

My nephew, who was in Europe a few weeks ago (he's dual citizen German/American but currently is a resident of the US) and returned to the US, felt some symptoms of a cold and went and got tested. The results finally came back positive, about 10 days after his test. The symptoms are long gone and were minor when he had them, lasting 2-3 days.

His family (my brother, sister-in-law and niece) practiced as much in-home quarantining as possible but it's very possible any or all of them get the virus. None currently exhibit any symptoms.

They're in the Twin Cities and I haven't had any contact in over a month with any of them.

A couple facts.

1. My nephew's case was, thankfully, minor.

2. He was able to get a test but it took a long time for the results to come back. He and his family practiced good isolation AFAIK, but I also know my brother went to work at some times because his boss wouldn't close the business initially.

[j44ke]

An important mentor and fellow architect of our architects just died from covid-19 infection. From spending a while reading about him, he sounds like someone you or I might not have heard of but his ideas on urban space probably affected the way we experience cities.

Michael Sorkin, visionary and incisive architect, educator, critic, has passed away from COVID-19 | News | Archinect

[Blue Jays]

/\/\/\
@j44ke, very sorry to learn the unfortunate news about your mentor and colleague Michael. :-(