Covid19

[Chik]

Wife’s colleague’s father who is 80 just returned from England with flu-like symptoms. His doctor told him current regulations say he cannot get tested because either way quarantine would indicated. He would have to present as lung congested with decreased lung function before he could get a test.

So this suggests to me that the regulations are becoming more selective - no longer are flu-like symptoms and foreign travel enough to get you tested. Or is it that 80 year olds are being held back until they are experiencing life-threatening symptoms?

I wonder if it's because there aren't enough test kits available. Otherwise, I can't see how that makes sense as a policy. But then again, not many things make sense these days.

[j44ke]

This may be the explanation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...strategyshift/

[Bobonli]

I think some of it is strategic hiding your head in the sand. On the one hand, the experts say they want testing to track the evolution of the spread. On a practical note, there's only so much capacity for testing and hospitalization. Re: my post above....if you start testing clinicians and they are positive but not very sick, they're going to want time off to recuperate, which the system can't really afford. Same applies to the public: if you test everyone, then you have to assume some of those people are going to insist on attention whether they need it or not. So better to set the threshold high to help control some of the pressure on the system.

My wife and her co-workers have been exposed. The message is: no testing until you have 3 consecutive episodes of high fever and you're sick with symptoms; otherwise, keep working. I think the fever element is being applied to the public as well; one high temp by itself I don't think will get you a ticket for testing, at least that's what I'm hearing from people who've called the 800 hotline set up by the state.

If you absolutely want a test, join the NBA.

[RichTheRoadie]

Looks like Australia - or at least parts of it - is going into lockdown from Tuesday.

[vertical_doug]

With current rates, it looks like US passes China and Italy for most infections by Saturday (3/28).
A lot of this is driven by the improved testing, luckily, for the time being, mortality rates in the US remain relative low.

[vertical_doug]

The financial black swan author on why the young and healthy need to take precautions from a systemic view.

[Chik]

J44ke, Bobonli, thanks. So, basically, resource constraints. A shitty situation all around.

On another note, I'm starting to wonder about the reliability of reported mortality rates. I mentioned that in Japan, tests are being carried out at only 1/6 of capacity, which may explain the low infection rate there although the popular opinion seems to attribute it to the social custom like bowing instead of shaking hands. On deaths, I understand that autopsies are rarely done in Japan. With about 100k dying from pneumonia each year (the latest available figure is 97k from 2017, which is when it dipped below 6 figures for the first time in several years), it's I think is the 3rd largest cause of death in Japan. In other words, it's a routine cause of death that doesn't really provoke an in-depth investigation. I'm now told that a former health minister is wondering whether the inexplicably low mortality rate is because the cause of death is being recorded as pneumonia (without having done an autopsy).

I haven't been able to confirm the anecdote on the quote from a former health minister, not even which one it might be, but it sounds plausible, which bothers me.

[Too Tall]

Maryland inches closer to a lockdown. I say bring it.
PS Peapod delivery dates are one month out.

[Mark Kelly]

The financial black swan author on why the young and healthy need to take precautions from a systemic view.

Thanks for that. NN Taleb is always worth listening to.

[TTX1]

Some fact based commentary. Here are some things I found to be of interest this past week:

1)
SORRENTO DEVELOPS STI-4398 (COVIDTRAP™ PROTEIN) FOR POTENTIAL PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) Nasdaq:SRNE

2) (SORRY it’s a google doc, it’s a PDF, safe...)
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19.pdf - Google Drive

[Too Tall]

Some fact based commentary. Here are some things I found to be of interest this past week:

1)
SORRENTO DEVELOPS STI-4398 (COVIDTRAP™ PROTEIN) FOR POTENTIAL PREVENTION AND TREATMENT OF SARS-COV-2 CORONAVIRUS DISEASE (COVID-19) Nasdaq:SRNE

2) (SORRY it’s a google doc, it’s a PDF, safe...)
Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19.pdf - Google Drive

I'm not buying what they (Hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin) are selling. Weak science to the point of misleading and that is all I have to say about it.
The Sorrento protein is interesting. Definitely worth watching. I like their thinking: ideal in generating passive immunity. If it works and is safe could be a great frontline tool.

[Chik]

I'm not buying what they (Hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin) are selling. Weak science to the point of misleading and that is all I have to say about it.
The Sorrento protein is interesting. Definitely worth watching. I like their thinking: ideal in generating passive immunity. If it works and is safe could be a great frontline tool.

#2 is for the politics thread, methinks.

[gt6267a]

What are the collective thoughts on duration of the epidemic?

One to three months from now, after we’ve reached peak and are trending towards substantially less cases. If we all come out of our dwellings, businesses open, and people stop social distancing; do the numbers jump up? There is another rise in infections. We lock down again and the cycle continues until there is a vaccine or drug?

Assuming that it takes 12 months to make a vaccine / drug and get it through some accelerated trials, did the ticker start in January? Effectively, we’ll be working from home, living in differing altered states, and the post-covid19 new normal won’t start until q1-2 of 2021? That's not speaking to what 2020 will look like or how post-Covid19 looks different vs pre-Covid19.

[vertical_doug]

What are the collective thoughts on duration of the epidemic?

One to three months from now, after we’ve reached peak and are trending towards substantially less cases. If we all come out of our dwellings, businesses open, and people stop social distancing; do the numbers jump up? There is another rise in infections. We lock down again and the cycle continues until there is a vaccine or drug?

Assuming that it takes 12 months to make a vaccine / drug and get it through some accelerated trials, did the ticker start in January? Effectively, we’ll be working from home, living in differing altered states, and the post-covid19 new normal won’t start until q1-2 of 2021? That's not speaking to what 2020 will look like or how post-Covid19 looks different vs pre-Covid19.

US has so many different geographic areas, there will be a very large distribution. In a place like Phoenix, the sun should be cooking the virus very soon. In a place like NYC, it may be more like Wuhan.

Wuhan went into lockdown 60 days ago. They just had 4 consecutive days with zero transmission. So when the Chinese release the lockdown, I will let you know best case scenario for NYC.

We need a little luck the virus is like most flu virus and wanes in the summer. But if we get complacent, the autumn will be a problem. That's why the world needs to cancel the Olympics. You cannot have millions from every corner of the globe coming together at the end of summer going in to autumn. It could be a legacy Tokyo doesn't want. Better to focus on 2021, and do it right when C19 is potentially licked and we have a vaccine.

[guido]

Coronavirus: what happens to people's lungs when they get Covid-19? | World news | The Guardian

[zachateseverything]

What are the collective thoughts on duration of the epidemic?

One to three months from now, after we’ve reached peak and are trending towards substantially less cases. If we all come out of our dwellings, businesses open, and people stop social distancing; do the numbers jump up? There is another rise in infections. We lock down again and the cycle continues until there is a vaccine or drug?

Assuming that it takes 12 months to make a vaccine / drug and get it through some accelerated trials, did the ticker start in January? Effectively, we’ll be working from home, living in differing altered states, and the post-covid19 new normal won’t start until q1-2 of 2021? That's not speaking to what 2020 will look like or how post-Covid19 looks different vs pre-Covid19.

In my opinion, "normal" isn't going to happen until 2021 when there's either a vaccine or this has burned through enough of the population that there's a heard immunity in place to contain the spread.

There's a chance that we'll be able to return to some semblance of normal in a month or two where businesses won't be as shuttered as they are right now, kids are allowed to go to school, etc. but for sure people are going to be encouraged to continue to follow social distancing and vulnerable populations are going to remain fairly isolated. a couple million people are also about to hit the unemployment rolls.

[crumpton]

Just want to clear something that I’ve seen misunderstood both here and other places. Heard immunity includes a readily available vaccine. It’s not an and or. So that’s like 2-3B or more infections plus a vaccine.

Lets hope it simply burns itself out which it could. 🤞

[ides1056]

School is out for the year. Period.

No college in New England will open again this year. No other school as well. Done. Same in California. Likely the same everywhere.

We are looking at 18 months of serious disruption and three years of adjustment if nothing else hits the fan in the meanwhile.

I will apologize if I am proven wrong.

[Bobonli]

As for schools and assuming this peaks in May and moves on, they could open earlier in the summer and go to longer sessions. It's possible, they do something like that in Europe I believe. I can't imagine what 'next year' would look like without something more formal than "I just dumped all of your kids' lessons online..." My kids would be completely unprepared for the next grade level.

[j44ke]

Italia!

Opinion | We Made Copies of Ventilator Parts to Help Hospitals Fight Coronavirus - The New York Times