Observations about the new deportation campaign

[colker]

Can we read teh history on this one
How Did We Get To 11 Million Unauthorized Immigrants? : NPR
We as a country basically were welcoming cheap immigrant labor for decades. We allowed them to come here, get jobs, help business owners like farmers and ranchers and hotel owners and....
We let them build families as they built our country, now we're saying get out. There is something fundamentally wrong about utilizing human beings for decades and decades only to move the goalposts later on.

This^

[C.Dyer]

No one really knows because everything happens in the shadows.

Isn't that fairly disingenuous though? It's not like we have the ability to precisely count to the individual how many there are, but there's some rigor to the studies and there are indices they use to track trends. I see several reputable sources reporting within the same ballpark as each other: Pew Research Center, The Center for Migration Studies, The Department of Homeland Security, others. Where's the 20 Million figure come from? It's manufactured out of whole cloth as far as I can tell. It's manipulative and dishonest to pretend that scientific uncertainty or margins of error mean that we don't know anything.

[colker]

When things go really complex around social economic issues i pronounce the magic words: free market!
Just make sure to enforce minimum wages and let the business chose the most qualified.
Let the market sort it out. If there is no jobs, there will be no immigration.
That´s how America was built.

[bigbill]

Immigration for employment is typically H1B visas which are limited to 85K a year with an additional 20K for people holding masters or higher degrees. Companies can get these visas via a lottery to hire foreign workers but have to demonstrate that there aren't US candidates with the right skill set. There really isn't any check, and this system can be abused to replace American workers with lower cost foreign workers. It's in the news every once in a while where a US employee is training their foreign replacement.

We as a nation created much of this problem by not keeping up with technology in education. When I work the college job fairs looking for engineer candidates, I speak with many students from China and India who are in master and doctorate programs after doing their undergrad in the their home country. If my company had a policy of sponsoring new hires (they don't), we could likely hire these students for the same salary as someone with a bachelors. Relatively cheap, highly educated workers. The US needs to do a better job producing engineers and computer science majors. I expect a change in the near future on the administration involved with H1B Visas to make them more difficult to obtain. This will likely result in more students overstaying their visas.

[PDAR]

Exactly what new tactics are you speaking of ?

If there is any additional anxiety out there it's been driven by exaggerated and fictional reports perpetrated by folks who want it to be true, so it can serve as a rallying point.

This tactic for one: ICE agents make arrests at courthouses, sparking backlash from attorneys and state supreme court - LA Times

[Dallas Tex]

This tactic for one: ICE agents make arrests at courthouses, sparking backlash from attorneys and state supreme court - LA Times

Exactly what would make you think this is a new tactic? The article uses personal quotes to clearly avoid saying it's a new tactic. The anecdotal quote is how advertisers also avoid false claims: "BurnOff 2000 diet supplement helped me lose 200 pounds-John P, Cincinnati".

[Dallas Tex]

Immigration for employment is typically H1B visas which are limited to 85K a year with an additional 20K for people holding masters or higher degrees. Companies can get these visas via a lottery to hire foreign workers but have to demonstrate that there aren't US candidates with the right skill set. There really isn't any check, and this system can be abused to replace American workers with lower cost foreign workers. It's in the news every once in a while where a US employee is training their foreign replacement.

We as a nation created much of this problem by not keeping up with technology in education. When I work the college job fairs looking for engineer candidates, I speak with many students from China and India who are in master and doctorate programs after doing their undergrad in the their home country. If my company had a policy of sponsoring new hires (they don't), we could likely hire these students for the same salary as someone with a bachelors. Relatively cheap, highly educated workers. The US needs to do a better job producing engineers and computer science majors. I expect a change in the near future on the administration involved with H1B Visas to make them more difficult to obtain. This will likely result in more students overstaying their visas.

Yes, STEM type grad programs are flush with foreign students. I'd be curious why? Ability to pay? Interest level by domestic students? Superficial diversity programs? Lesser ability to compete of the US students? High caliber US students opting for an undergrad finance degree and earning more than most engineers?

As for overstaying their visas, I'd like to see some sort of fast track to citizenship for folks that get graduate degrees in highly desirable fields.

[vertical_doug]

Yes, STEM type grad programs are flush with foreign students. I'd be curious why? Ability to pay? Interest level by domestic students? Superficial diversity programs? Lesser ability to compete of the US students? High caliber US students opting for an undergrad finance degree and earning more than most engineers?

As for overstaying their visas, I'd like to see some sort of fast track to citizenship for folks that get graduate degrees in highly desirable fields.

Only Spain and Italy rank worse than the US for math in OECD countries. Throw China and India into the mix , and well... you can guess.

By the time American students are in middle school, it is already too late. They really need to spend more time when younger doing math. Math is the language of science, if you struggle with that, you have no chance in STEM.

As a foreign student with english has a second language, STEM will play to your strengths because math is universal.

[Dallas Tex]

Only Spain and Italy rank worse than the US for math in OECD countries. Throw China and India into the mix , and well... you can guess.

By the time American students are in middle school, it is already too late. They really need to spend more time when younger doing math. Math is the language of science, if you struggle with that, you have no chance in STEM.

As a foreign student with english has a second language, STEM will play to your strengths because math is universal.

The US could definitely improve educationally in both in structure and attitude.

However, I always feel that some of these country by country comparisons are a bit apples to oranges. In the US we try to educate everyone. Everyone. Folks that just arrived here with two kids that don't speak the language.....those kids are in schools weeks later & mixed into these numbers. Imho it's a bit inaccurate to compare our numbers that may include troubled, violent, deep inner city Schools to another country where a great many children are excluded from the educational system. It's comparing our 'everybody' to their 'best of the best'.

[vertical_doug]

The US could definitely improve educationally in both in structure and attitude.

However, I always feel that some of these country by country comparisons are a bit apples to oranges. In the US we try to educate everyone. Everyone. Folks that just arrived here with two kids that don't speak the language.....those kids are in schools weeks later & mixed into these numbers. Imho it's a bit inaccurate to compare our numbers that may include troubled, violent, deep inner city Schools to another country where a great many children are excluded from the educational system. It's comparing our 'everybody' to their 'best of the best'.

actually, your argument may be backwards. Most countries run their schools nationally, and are not controlled locally. There are national standards for education and testing. Korea, Taiwan, Japan do not exclude large portions of heir population from the school system, and yet they crush the US in math.

The right question to ask about the US is how to fix the failing schools. When I read the Detroit school district average score on ACT is around 14, it can only be because the school system is failing, not that the children are on average that much more stupid.

[colker]

actually, your argument may be backwards. Most countries run their schools nationally, and are not controlled locally. There are national standards for education and testing. Korea, Taiwan, Japan do not exclude large portions of heir population from the school system, and yet they crush the US in math.

The right question to ask about the US is how to fix the failing schools. When I read the Detroit school district average score on ACT is around 14, it can only be because the school system is failing, not that the children are on average that much more stupid.

The US is known world wide for excellent college education and terrible high schools. It´s old.. I have heard this since i am a kid. I believe it´s not only a social imbalance problem but how and what kids learn at school.
Otoh, the US college degrees are Gold worldwide.
Since i believe College should be optional and not mandatory for a successfull citizen, i find the US system fvcked up.
The northern europeans have the best education ime.

[bcm119]

I really doubt Trump will deport that many undocumented workers. He knows the economy relies on them too heavily. The truth is that we don’t have a labor class of citizens in this country. Our labor class is now too unhealthy and unmotivated to perform labor. Immigrants work circles around our workers, and serve as the domestic version of outsourcing for corporate America. The Trump-supporting honey boo boos know this too, and it’s at the core of their xenophobia. Trump has capitalized on that xenophobia to get elected, but he’s not throwing them any bones aside from some nasty ICE raids to keep the Breitbart crowd happy. Trump isn’t working for them, he’s working for the donor class. As long as immigrants are setting the standard for performance of labor, low income whites are out of the game. For them to get back in the game, ALL immigrants would have to be deported, and that just isn’t happening. The fat cats won’t let it.

[bking]

The right question to ask about the US is how to fix the failing schools. When I read the Detroit school district average score on ACT is around 14, it can only be because the school system is failing, not that the children are on average that much more stupid.

I'm sure the school system, almost everywhere, needs help. But the main culprit, the big problem, is parenting. Parents do not care, or ignore their part of children's education. It's a battle parents these days choose not to fight. Even kids in poor schools excel when they're parents choose to make education a focus in the home.

[Dallas Tex]

...............Immigrants work circles around our workers.....

I thought you Berkeley types didn't like to pass sweeping generalizations about entire populations of people, like 'immigrants' or 'our workers' ? ;)

[bcm119]

I thought you Berkeley types didn't like to pass sweeping generalizations about entire populations of people, like 'immigrants' or 'our workers' ? ;)

I just live here for the climate and food, and I love sweeping generalizations. But yes, it is a generalization and I present it as my opinion only.

[Dallas Tex]

I really doubt Trump will deport that many undocumented workers..

I think this is dead on accurate. He'll go after criminals etc. When all the smoke clears, I'd bet he'll be offering some sort of 'permanent residency' status to the folks that have been here and done well.

[spopepro]

Oh boy... going way OT in the OT thread, but as mentioned previously, I'm still a public school administrator. What I'm about to say really *should* be cited, but I'm doing this over lunch and don't have time. Feel free to dismiss, but these are from memory from scholarly articles.

First, the US *does* test more students than other OECD countries. Remember that the PISA (which is one of many international tests) is given at grade levels that is beyond the compulsory educational age in most of the countries listed. In other assessments that take place in earlier grade levels the difference is much smaller.

Second, we do have greater challenges than other countries in regards to the diversity of background and preparation that students have when they enter our schools. This mostly comes into focus when we are talking about students who are not native English speakers, or for whom English is not spoken at home. The problem is that some of these students do not have literacy in their *first* language, which makes most of what we have been doing instructionally not effective. Note that students with age/grade level appropriate literacy in their first language gain English fluency (i.e. they are reclassified as fluent English proficient) in 3 years and have significant success in our school systems.

Third: this isn't really hit on exactly here, but if you were to adjust the parameters of student performance, educational spending, and GDP to make a more level comparison, the differences between all countries flattens out considerably. Places like Singapore and Finland spend monumental amounts on education, and have exceptional returns. Korea is the only place that is crushing it but not spending very much to do so. We end up just a bit above the middle of the pack.

And that's really the truth of the story. Internationally, we are about middle of the pack. Which is a long ways away from failing, but certainly noting to boast about. People who promote the narrative of "everything is improving and we are awesome" or "the failing system needs to be blown up" are both likely doing so in promotion of their personal agenda.

As far as technical fields, I have a personal story: when I was applying to math PhD programs I was told it was really, really hard for US prepared students to compete with those prepared internationally. My 30th percentile on the Math GRE ended up being just good enough. The funny thing is... all these "much better prepared" international math students don't do any better in their sequence courses, don't pass the qualifying exams earlier, don't finish their PhDs faster, and don't produce more or better quality research than their US prepared peers. And if you work with H1B folks from other places you probably are nodding your head, as there is something that is missing from the knowledge and skill base of those prepared in India and China that seems to hold them back when tackling really difficult problems. I have some ideas here... but it's now going way outside the scope of this discussion, and is conjecture.

tl;dr: we are doing an OK job, that matches about what you could expect for how much we spend.

[j44ke]

I don't think there is any motivation for Trump to do anything other than deport anyone and everyone possible. That's largely what he promised his constituency, that's what his constituency wants, and there is zero political cost to Trump for doing so. The basic underlying motivation is that liberals have allowed a group of lawbreaking non-citizens access to support and services that I, a law-abiding American citizen who works hard for the ever dwindling amount of money I make, have no way of gaining access to myself. If anything, undocumented or illegal immigrants who have been in this country for a long time, worked hard and paid taxes would be primary targets, because of the amount of money they add per-annum to the social security trust fund (estimated to be about $10 billion per year for the last 10 years or so as per the Social Security Administration) which if they became citizens they would be able to collect on at retirement age. Deporting all these people at substantially increased rates from Obama, Bush and Clinton could be just as easily seen as a financial decision based on the economic plan to devote more tax revenue to defense spending and less to social programs and propping up Social Security. The longer someone has been living and working in the US the more of a financial reward their deportation is.

Who among his constituency is going to vote against him if he deports all illegal immigrants regardless of their good citizenship?

No, there's no political cost for doing this. None whatsoever. For the rest of the Republican party there will be, but not for Trump.

[woodworker]

I think this is dead on accurate. He'll go after criminals etc. When all the smoke clears, I'd bet he'll be offering some sort of 'permanent residency' status to the folks that have been here and done well.

I don't work in the immigration courts, but I've had experience with them and have attended hearings in relation to immigrants that I've supported (and I work as a lawyer, just not in that practice discipline). Someone else with greater experience in that arena could address it better, but I think that you are looking for a silver lining where none exists.

Obama was very hard on illegal immigration during his first term but seemed to soften up during his second term. Nevertheless, during his entire duration as President, he sought to deport those with any criminal record, and the government attorneys went very hard after anyone with any criminal record, including pretty minor stuff, misdemeanors and charges that would not be brought against your average white person. They are things like loitering, being drunk in public, staying after hours in a public park. Often, they are youthful indiscretions, judgment calls by officers or the technical violation of laws that largely go unenforced. I call these types of arrests, "being brown in public." The deportation decisions involve some prosecutorial discretion, but there are guidelines that the government attorneys are supposed to follow. My point is that the baseline set by Obama was pretty high, so Trump's new standard will likely go well beyond those with criminal records. I think that this will be a pretty broad sweep with reverberations felt in many Hispanic communities and in economic sectors that rely upon cheap immigrant labor (agriculture, construction, and lower service industries). It's not good for the country, and it's terrible for those who are looking down the barrel of deportation.

I'm not a soft guy, but I've seen first-hand how these folks are treated, rounded up and sent to huge detention facilities in places like San Antonio Texas without knowing what will happen next, or being sent across the border without any money or family members or means of communication. We need to own what we're doing and understand it, not hope that it won't be as bad as advertised.

...and, to be clear, I'm not slamming you, I just think that many Americans are far too detached to understand what Trump's policies mean at ground level. Even if the policies were framed more honestly, with a greater appreciation for the immigrant population, they would still be misguided.

[j44ke]

I don't think there is any motivation for Trump to do anything other than deport anyone and everyone possible. That's largely what he promised his constituency, that's what his constituency wants, and there is zero political cost to Trump for doing so. The basic underlying motivation is that liberals have allowed a group of lawbreaking non-citizens access to support and services that I, a law-abiding American citizen who works hard for the ever dwindling amount of money I make, have no way of gaining access to myself. If anything, undocumented or illegal immigrants who have been in this country for a long time, worked hard and paid taxes would be primary targets, because of the amount of money they add per-annum to the social security trust fund (estimated to be about $10 billion per year for the last 10 years or so as per the Social Security Administration) which if they became citizens they would be able to collect on at retirement age. Deporting all these people at substantially increased rates from Obama, Bush and Clinton could be just as easily seen as a financial decision based on the economic plan to devote more tax revenue to defense spending and less to social programs and propping up Social Security. The longer someone has been living and working in the US the more of a financial reward their deportation is.

Who among his constituency is going to vote against him if he deports all illegal immigrants regardless of their good citizenship?

No, there's no political cost for doing this. None whatsoever. For the rest of the Republican party there will be, but not for Trump.

That should be "Their basic underlying motivation..." not "The". And their meaning Trump's constituency.