Changes that will be sticky & changes that will snap back post-pandemic

[deano]

Hot take: work from home sucks - it's hard to get anything done with kids around, work encroaches on your personal space even more pervasively than when just the smartphone came with you, it's lonely working alone, etc. I have done it the past few years and there are tons of pluses, that's for sure. I kinda like it most of the time, ish, but it has its downsides. I am beginning to suspect that some firms will let people work from home and at other firms, working in the office will be a path to being a more permanent employee and you will need to be in person to remain competitive in the marketplace. The wide candidate pool for remote workers is a coutnerpoint, but I suspect remote workers will be easiest to fire when the time comes.

[snotrockets]

Hot take: work from home sucks - it's hard to get anything done with kids around, work encroaches on your personal space even more pervasively than when just the smartphone came with you, it's lonely working alone, etc. I have done it the past few years and there are tons of pluses, that's for sure. I kinda like it most of the time, ish, but it has its downsides. I am beginning to suspect that some firms will let people work from home and at other firms, working in the office will be a path to being a more permanent employee and you will need to be in person to remain competitive in the marketplace. The wide candidate pool for remote workers is a coutnerpoint, but I suspect remote workers will be easiest to fire when the time comes.

There's also WFH (by yourself, in an home office, etc.) and WFH-during-pandemic, where everyone is at home, you may not have proper work environment set up, etc.

[bcm119]

I was thinking about it myself: would I move? That means upsetting current ties; my daughter like her school (or at least, liked it, before CA and the district fucked up and shut down schools without giving the teachers enough guidance and preparation for distance learning), my partner likes the dojo she is part of here. Would the savings from moving somewhere else would be worth it? What happens in 2-5 years down the road?

Most of the stories about the SF exodus forgets to look at the other side of the bay: a lot of the exodus is to Oakland and the East Bay; slightly bigger apartments and lower rents, while still close by.

It's hard to get a handle on the dynamics here in the bay area. I see so much media coverage of people moving out, or (much more commonly) people saying they want to move away or are planning on moving away (to the cheers of the locals/natives). This was even happening pre-Covid in right wing media, since the republicans are eaten alive by the fact that progressive SF has the hottest economy. But the real estate prices tell a different story, they haven't come down much, and even though there's a lot more houses on the market now, they are still selling fast.
I suspect a lot of the media coverage is focused on one-way migration in or out to make for an engaging story, despite there maybe being an equal and opposite flow. So real estate may just be a high-volume case of musical chairs, with little net effect on prices. Lots of people waiting to jump into the Berkeley/Oakland/SF market if prices allow.

Several people I work with have fled the area temporarily. These are people who rent, and they've vacated their rentals, put their stuff in storage, and are working remotely from family's houses in other states. However, they have intentions of returning and finding a new place "when the office opens back up." Lots of unknowns.

[caleb]

Several people I work with have fled the area temporarily. These are people who rent, and they've vacated their rentals, put their stuff in storage, and are working remotely from family's houses in other states. However, they have intentions of returning and finding a new place "when the office opens back up." Lots of unknowns.

I'm seeing a similar dynamic with a couple friends who were working in the SFBA but came back "home" to Minneapolis in March when they went remote. They expect to go back to the Bay Area.

I do wonder too if "cities" is really too broad of a category for thinking about what might happen, too. NYC and the Bay Area are totally different than Indianapolis, or Kansas City, or even Austin. Cities of homeowners with moderate housing costs seem likely to react differently than cities of renters with very high housing costs.

[bcm119]

I'm seeing a similar dynamic with a couple friends who were working in the SFBA but came back "home" to Minneapolis in March when they went remote. They expect to go back to the Bay Area.

I do wonder too if "cities" is really too broad of a category for thinking about what might happen, too. NYC and the Bay Area are totally different than Indianapolis, or Kansas City, or even Austin. Cities of homeowners with moderate housing costs seem likely to react differently than cities of renters with very high housing costs.

And also how the trends will play out within the larger metro areas of the big cities. How far out will people in the urban centers move? I think the math people are doing right now is cost of living vs. the drastically reduced benefits of a dense urban environment during Covid. But that equation changes pretty quickly as you get just outside the urban centers.

[ides1056]

Anecdotal evidence suggests that some Americans think they can drive their ATV's and 4X's wherever they please.

I hope this changes.

People with means are leaving Boston and NYC and coming to the hills where I live. Spoke with a person yesterday who vowed they would not return to the city. I told them to get back to me in the spring. Lots of people love it here when the living is easy, but six months of the year is Winter and you can't sugar-coat that.

[sk_tle]

Hot take: work from home sucks - it's hard to get anything done with kids around

Most work from home during the quarantine wasn't proper work from home because of the kids. But once the kids go back to school this will be another story. However work from home is here to stay, at least in my company for most people as they found out they were more productive. They are securing a budget for us to get a better setup at home as well. I'll certainly go back to the office once a week but not more.The no commute life is that good, as short as it may be.

I wish people wouldn't be that stupid and would think globally. You don't have to buy everything on amazon an enrich the very same people when you can buy online to your local shops. They may see less people at their physical location but most shop owners have adapted and are offering delivery.

[bcm119]

Anecdotal evidence suggests that some Americans think they can drive their ATV's and 4X's wherever they please.

A significant portion of the USFS budget is spent, either directly or indirectly, on managing and mitigating rampant ATV abuse of public lands. Maybe not quite as egregious as on private lands, but the ecosystems getting destroyed don't care who owns the land. I hate ATVs with a passion.

[caleb]

Anecdotal evidence suggests that some Americans think they can drive their ATV's and 4X's wherever they please.

I hope this changes.

The next step is buying an AR to shoot off the back deck of their house on their three acre lot without a backstop. Because apparently a big part of the attraction of country living is the ability to give zero Fs about anyone else.

A few blizzards and some sub-zero temps have a way of solving these issues, but that's all a few months off.

[ides1056]

I ran into a guy from Department of Conservation Resources on a ride a few days ago and asked how things were going. Just not enough enforcement. We have four Environmental Police Officers in the western end of MA.

Riding through the woods a month back I found a Jeep blocking the road, doors open, music blaring. On the other side was a paunchy guy in a cowboy hat with an assault rifle. I rode past him and across the beaver dam that had flooded the road- I am a white male- where I stopped and asked what he was after.

Dragonflies, he replied. It's a BB gun.

People react in the strangest ways to changes in routine.

I'd say many of those who are driving where they should not aren't local, both here and elsewhere, but are people who have been cooped up and think they are communing with nature by trampling it.

[bcm119]

Camping facilities up and down the west coast, especially within a couple hours of major cities, are absolutely trashed. The agencies that manage them are totally overwhelmed, it's a sad and dire situation. The sudden surge of trash and human waste will leave a lasting mark on the environment.

[cash]

Camping facilities up and down the west coast, especially within a couple hours of major cities, are absolutely trashed. The agencies that manage them are totally overwhelmed, it's a sad and dire situation. The sudden surge of trash and human waste will leave a lasting mark on the environment.

Exact same on the Colorado front range. And now, the state is burning (much like CA). I've not seen trail use at these levels on local trails prior to COVID. I've purposefully avoided traveling to ride this summer so I don't contribute to the problem.

College students returned en masse this week (CSU - Fort Collins, CO). The numbers are smaller than in a typical year, but the parties are large, frequent, loud. I predict a COVID spike among students and a subsequent university shutdown in the near future. Individual college students are smart, engaging, inspiring. But as a group, not so much. Not so much at all.

Changes I hope to be sticky .... a complete overhaul of the university/college/higher ed system. The cost and associated absurdity of the typical university has got to change. I don't know the exact right equation, but when a university builds luxury apartments on campus and its own mini hospital, along with the myriad other amenities that are disconnected from the mission of high ed, I no longer support the mission.

[bigbill]

I've been going to work during the pandemic. I'm the chief engineer at a manufacturing plant in an essential industry. There are 16 factories in the corporation, all are open, a few had some down time when an outbreak occurred, but protocols were put in place to reopen. Our corporate headquarters has been shutdown with all the staff working from home since March. Today we had a teleconference and the VP of engineering said, "I guess you're all wondering when corporate headquarters is reopening." I wasn't wondering at all, it has had zero impact on how I do my job. Not really sure what they do at this point. I think the pandemic has made us question the value of a home office versus a "lead facility" that has larger engineering, accounting, etc, departments but still makes a product. There isn't value added by a pretty building that is entirely overhead.

[J_B]

Anecdotal evidence suggests that some Americans think they can drive their ATV's and 4X's wherever they please.

I hope this changes.

People with means are leaving Boston and NYC and coming to the hills where I live. Spoke with a person yesterday who vowed they would not return to the city. I told them to get back to me in the spring. Lots of people love it here when the living is easy, but six months of the year is Winter and you can't sugar-coat that.

Yup, they’re coming out to Central NJ in droves. Pre-covid was just weekend visits to the river towns, now it seems that these NY license plates are multiplying, as are the For Sale signs on lawns in the neighborhood. It’s a seller’s market it seems, and I’m fearful of not being able to afford to rent an apartment anymore.

[JJohnson]

Camping facilities up and down the west coast, especially within a couple hours of major cities, are absolutely trashed. The agencies that manage them are totally overwhelmed, it's a sad and dire situation. The sudden surge of trash and human waste will leave a lasting mark on the environment.

Iowa DNR had to close Maquoketa Caves State Park because people were leaving trash everywhere and SHITTING IN THE CLOSED CAVES. Caves are closed for much of the year because of hibernating bats, but that didn't stop the fleshy filth from invading the area since the staff was on furlough. I hate humans.

[rec head]

As for non-WFH stickies: The handshake? Masks just being worn to fight illness spread? Sadly these things are politicized not just practical measures.

My job is hands on and essential. It hasn't slowed down one bit. But all your WFH comments have me really frightened for my retirement plan which is to move somewhere without a shitty winter where I can have great rides out the door. If everyone can WFH they can live in these places too and the prices are going to go up. In that sense I am very much against people working from home.

[Rich Beaudoin]

...my retirement plan which is to move somewhere without a shitty winter where I can have great rides out the door. If everyone can WFH they can live in these places too and the prices are going to go up. In that sense I am very much against people working from home.

I was talking with LBS manager today and he thinks this has already begun to happen.
Locally we are overrun with California plates. The trails are crowded and most alarming the real estate market is going crazy. Part of it is due to fires in NorCal but I’m hearing the same is happening in Bend and other destinations with good water and trails. If people are buying homes, it’s more permanent than escaping from smoke for a week.

[vertical_doug]

I was talking with LBS manager today and he thinks this has already begun to happen.
Locally we are overrun with California plates. The trails are crowded and most alarming the real estate market is going crazy. Part of it is due to fires in NorCal but I’m hearing the same is happening in Bend and other destinations with good water and trails. If people are buying homes, it’s more permanent than escaping from smoke for a week.

I don't see these changes being permanent. The changes are happening so quickly, companies have not started to address the issues. I expect if you move from Bay area to somewhere with a lower cost of living, the company will eventually reset the salary lower. If you don't like it, leave. They can hire someone remotely for less to replace you. (think Bangalore, Pune, or even Bismark and Duluth)

If you are all working remotely, you are becoming essentially a digital assembly line worker and worse you are 24/7 as you will be sucked into always being engaged with work. Companies will shift WFH workers into a gig worker model like Uber/Lyft and I view this as really dystopian future.

[Scott G.]

If you are all working remotely, you are becoming essentially a digital assembly line worker and worse you are 24/7 as you will be sucked into always being engaged with work. Companies will shift WFH workers into a gig worker model like Uber/Lyft and I view this as really dystopian future.

We were already there pre-covid, sorting thru 500 emails on the weekend. Logging in to work while on vacation.
A 9-5 job, than ends Friday at 5pm ? it is to laugh.
Smartphone = ElectroLeash.

[sk_tle]

If you are all working remotely, you are becoming essentially a digital assembly line worker and worse you are 24/7 as you will be sucked into always being engaged with work. Companies will shift WFH workers into a gig worker model like Uber/Lyft and I view this as really dystopian future.

We were already there pre-covid, sorting thru 500 emails on the weekend. Logging in to work while on vacation.
A 9-5 job, than ends Friday at 5pm ? it is to laugh.
Smartphone = ElectroLeash.

Well I guess it is a cultural thing or different in the IT world because I don't.

I am part of an on-call for emergency schedules so I have like 8 weeks diring the year where it is the case (but I am compensated both witt money and an additionnal day off) bit outside of these hours my work laptop is in suspend mode and my office's simcard is locked. Nobody is expecting me to be reachable or available.

That said remote office has made some change in the liberty we takes regarding office hours. I sometimes take a nap in the middle of the afternoon or disconnect for 30 minutes while doing grocery shopping and all it takes is asking my team members on our office chat if they have any tension about me being unavailable for 30mins to 2hours. And since thet also want to keep that liberty they will never really say no unless nobody else can be online at the same time.