Covid19

[Paul Jacobs]

In the UK we are being prepared for 6 months of restrictions. The briefing comes from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer because the Chief Medical Officer of the UK is self isolating, as are with the Prime Minister and the Health Minister after testing positive in the last few days.

Coronavirus: Six months before UK 'returns to normal' - deputy chief medical officer - BBC News

[Too Tall]

In the UK we are being prepared for 6 months of restrictions. The briefing comes from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer because the Chief Medical Officer of the UK is self isolating, as are with the Prime Minister and the Health Minister after testing positive in the last few days.

Coronavirus: Six months before UK 'returns to normal' - deputy chief medical officer - BBC News

I need an excellent cocktail now.

Pasting salient points from the link above:

"So over time, probably over the next six months, we will have a three-week review. We will see where we are going.

"We need to keep that lid on - and then gradually we will be able to hopefully adjust some of the social distancing measures and gradually get us all back to normal.

"Three weeks for review, two or three months to see whether we have really squashed it but about three to six months ideally, and lots of uncertainty in that, but then to see at which point we can actually get back to normal."

But Dr Harries also said it was "plausible" that it could further than that.

[Colinmclelland]

In the UK we are being prepared for 6 months of restrictions. The briefing comes from the Deputy Chief Medical Officer because the Chief Medical Officer of the UK is self isolating, as are with the Prime Minister and the Health Minister after testing positive in the last few days.

Coronavirus: Six months before UK 'returns to normal' - deputy chief medical officer - BBC News

6 months is also the timeframe being bandied about in Australia. As in, "anything we do has to be sustainable because it will probably in place for 6 months"...

[Colinmclelland]

Which is all wierd. I thought it would be over by easter. Maybe he meant easter 2021...

[guido]

Which is all wierd. I thought it would be over by easter. Maybe he meant easter 2021...

That was going to be my point too. But this is the science thread not the political thread. I guess we both owe pushups...

[Colinmclelland]

That was going to be my point too. But this is the science thread not the political thread. I guess we both owe pushups...

Good point! and on the subject of indoor exercise...Nope wrong thread

[vertical_doug]

At least Trump blinked. The administration has said April 30, but they have the second number which is June 1. It will be the second date, June 1.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...-03-2020v2.pdf

This is the paper Dr. F & B referenced.

[vertical_doug]

Sadly, I think the Imperial College has a fundamental flaw regarding the US modelling. The US is a wealthy first world country, but that's the average. Inside that country, there is a level 3 third world country hiding. I think you can look at US infant mortality versus other Level 1 countries to know we have a problem. Outcomes may be considerably worse in certain areas of the United States. (for example, infant mortality in German is 3.7 US is 6.5 which is more inline with Ukraine. )

[guido]

When the virus hits the heartland the fur will fly...

USA coronavirus: Covid-19 may hit rural America later — and harder - Vox

[gt6267a]

I need an excellent cocktail now.

Pasting salient points from the link above:

"So over time, probably over the next six months, we will have a three-week review. We will see where we are going.

"We need to keep that lid on - and then gradually we will be able to hopefully adjust some of the social distancing measures and gradually get us all back to normal.

"Three weeks for review, two or three months to see whether we have really squashed it but about three to six months ideally, and lots of uncertainty in that, but then to see at which point we can actually get back to normal."

But Dr Harries also said it was "plausible" that it could further than that.

This is the direction of thinking I was going after earlier in this thread. Looking beyond the upcoming peeks and terrible times that will sadly come to many people, what is the future for society? Even thinking they will go back to normal in 6 months seems extremely optimistic. Its not like C19 will be gone from the planet in 6 months. If the UK opens borders and people drop social distancing, won't it come back just as strong? Same thing with the US, April 29 seems wildly optimistic. Is there really an opening of society and returning to normal without a vaccine or medication?

Assuming we have at least 12 more months of not normal, businesses will need to figure out how to succeed in the new altered state. Examples of things I suspect we will see that are upside down ...

Businesses advertising that their staff are all recovered from having C19. Example, a restaurant advertises that all cooks, food packagers, and staff have recovered from C19. Basically implying that this restaurant is safer than restaurants with potentially active C19 staff. Instead of a social stigma to having had C19, it will be valued.

Hotels or travel destinations advertising that a room has been empty for 7 days so no surfaces could be contaminated.

etc etc

[j44ke]

...

Businesses advertising that their staff are all recovered from having C19. Example, a restaurant advertises that all cooks, food packagers, and staff have recovered from C19. Basically implying that this restaurant is safer than restaurants with potentially active C19 staff. Instead of a social stigma to having had C19, it will be valued...

I got you, but that still feels like a dream, doesn't it? They still don't seem to know quite what happens after you've entered recovery. Or at least, the details are fuzzy. Are you contagious or a carrier or do you have immunities enough to withstand further exposure, etc.

So many mysteries. I think this is one of the big destabilizing factors of this virus. We assume we'll figure all of this out and construct a vaccine and the world will move on....

[caleb]

Assuming we have at least 12 more months of not normal, businesses will need to figure out how to succeed in the new altered state. Examples of things I suspect we will see that are upside down ...

Businesses advertising that their staff are all recovered from having C19. Example, a restaurant advertises that all cooks, food packagers, and staff have recovered from C19. Basically implying that this restaurant is safer than restaurants with potentially active C19 staff. Instead of a social stigma to having had C19, it will be valued.

Hotels or travel destinations advertising that a room has been empty for 7 days so no surfaces could be contaminated.

etc etc

I would expect you're also going to have a growing number of people who (think) they have antibodies, and start to bring pressure to return to normal. As that number grows, the pressure to move on socially will grow, too.

[ides1056]

While splitting firewood today I thought of friends with kids locked down in the city, and friends there who are out of work: circus trainer, chef. How can I put together a summer camp on my property? Kids were sent to the countryside during the Blitz...

[Lionel]

This is admirable. I do my morning walks frequently, which are totally benign and I don't get near anyone on them. But my riding, if you can call it that where I live, has been on some trails and there it's not possible to avoid getting near others occasionally. Not sure what's the right call here.

As to other things, it's almost impossible to not go to the grocery store or do other 'essential' activities.

I had a 4-day trip (with many disruptions) that ended a week ago and am supposed to start another trip tomorrow though the entire thing has been cancelled. So my next trip isn't scheduled now until April 1 and that will also be subject to changes. Our flying is scheduled to be down by 28% but that number is likely to go way up.

It will be interesting to see how this affects the airlines. We've already seen huge cancellations and are flying largely empty airplanes around when we do fly. The leaders of my company, in response to concerns about whey we are flying at all, respond that we are an 'essential' part of the national transportation system and we do in fact carry freight, including medical supplies relevant to the current medical situation. So that's the answer to that.

I live alone so mostly this whole lockdown hasn't represented a huge change for me (yet) but clearly it's a giant change for a hundreds of millions.

The rules are tighter and tighter here. Overall I work from my home office (actually a whole lot more than usual) and I follow the ban strictly. My wife got out for the first time after 10 days to get food for another 15 days. We mostly grocery shop in smaller places that know us, so you can actually call the butcher or fish guy and order what you want and the phone and pick it up. I want to stay away from large Carrefour type hypermarkets.

I would not want to be a pilot in the US now, so all the best to you Jim. I think they should restrict all domestic travel in the US. It seems nuts to be able to fly out of NYC right now.

[WFSTEKL]

While splitting firewood today I thought of friends with kids locked down in the city, and friends there who are out of work: circus trainer, chef. How can I put together a summer camp on my property? Kids were sent to the countryside during the Blitz...

Start by purchasing a shit-load of insurance.

[fastupslowdown]

75% of my building has vacated. I don't see a sole except once a week when I go shopping. Starting to feel like I'm either in an Edward Hopper painting or reliving one of those twilight zone episodes where the people are all gone. i think the risk of contraction is low given the circumstances although a bit nervous when i hit the market -Mike G

[Tom]

So on the company internal web page this morning there's a story about a guy in one of the application programming areas that heard about the hospitals needing personal protection gear, looked at the 3D printer his wife gave him for Christmas and went hmmmm.... He called up the hospital and asked if there was anything he might be able to do. So he's printing face shields. Eighteen hours a day. He's made the control program available to anybody that wants it. He's apparently talking to various organizations and states about making it available.

[vertical_doug]

75% of my building has vacated. I don't see a sole except once a week when I go shopping. Starting to feel like I'm either in an Edward Hopper painting or reliving one of those twilight zone episodes where the people are all gone. i think the risk of contraction is low given the circumstances although a bit nervous when i hit the market -Mike G

Contact trace. Door handles, elevator buttons, railings.

Practice the surgeon wash and get scrubbed in when you are home.

I'd wear a mask if you have one just so you don't touch the face.

[jclay]

Hey John - Almost everyone on the site is reading all the Covid threads, so if you could just post in one or the other that would be most efficient. I would suggest the political thread but use your best judgement. Thanks!

BTW, the football match in Milan was attended by 40,000 citizens from Bergamo (Atalanta is their home team) and was reported several days ago. Capacity of the stadium itself is 80,000 people and Champion's League games are usually sell outs. So figure 40k from Bergamo and then 40k from elsewhere and Spain (Valencia) who then went home afterwards, evidently infected with the virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...adly-outbreak/

After posting it on the political thread I decided that, perhaps wrongly, it really was more general and ought to be here, and deleted it over there....or so I thought. Sorry about that.

[fastupslowdown]

Contact trace. Door handles, elevator buttons, railings.

Practice the surgeon wash and get scrubbed in when you are home.

I'd wear a mask if you have one just so you don't touch the face.

i use a dog bag to touch doors and buttons. i wash my hands frequently. our building is cleaning all frequently touched surfaces with greater frequency