Covid19

[rec head]

Coronavirus modelers factor in new public health risk: Accusations their work is a hoax | Washington Post

"Running beneath it all, in a continuous loop through our national psyche, are basic questions leaders are struggling to answer: When can we safely lift these quarantines? How many people could die if we do it too early? Just how dangerous will this pandemic turn out to be? And what exactly should be our next step?

This is why epidemiology exists. Its practitioners use math and scientific principles to understand disease, project its consequences, and figure out ways to survive and overcome it. Their models are not meant to be crystal balls predicting exact numbers or dates. They forecast how diseases will spread under different conditions. And their models allow policymakers to foresee challenges, understand trend lines and make the best decisions for the public good.

But one factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models."

This makes me really angry. I know there are scientists and military people that have gone through all this. The fact that on day 1 or even day 15 the government didn't just have an announcement that they had a plan and it was going be implemented the following day or week is frustrating. I'm sure the people that specialize in this stuff are loosing their minds. Why are they voting on particulars of a stimulus packages? The details should already be sitting in an envelope from the Smart People Who's Job It Is To Plan For This Shit just waiting to be opened.

I had to go back to work yesterday after vacation and being on the front lines of this is not where I want to be.

[davids]

So here's the skinny...

My nephew, who was in Europe a few weeks ago (he's dual citizen German/American but currently is a resident of the US) and returned to the US, felt some symptoms of a cold and went and got tested. The results finally came back positive, about 10 days after his test. The symptoms are long gone and were minor when he had them, lasting 2-3 days.

His family (my brother, sister-in-law and niece) practiced as much in-home quarantining as possible but it's very possible any or all of them get the virus. None currently exhibit any symptoms.

They're in the Twin Cities and I haven't had any contact in over a month with any of them.

A couple facts.

1. My nephew's case was, thankfully, minor.

2. He was able to get a test but it took a long time for the results to come back. He and his family practiced good isolation AFAIK, but I also know my brother went to work at some times because his boss wouldn't close the business initially.

Repeat this story a million or so times. So far.

Who still doesn't get this?

[j44ke]

/\/\/\
@j44ke, very sorry to learn the unfortunate news about your mentor and colleague Michael. :-(

Thanks, but -

I must not have been clear enough. Our architects knew Michael Sorkin. He was their mentor and colleague.

And I should have extended my point. As people live longer, so too may the sweet spot for providing meaningful service to humanity through ideas, wisdom, mentoring, advice, promotion, support have moved up in age for many disciplines or professions.

And not to privilege one career or path over another, but we’re losing some of those people in a way that feels more like removal rather than demise.

[Too Tall]

#lamenton I just want to die of old age damnit.

[GrantM]

Coronavirus modelers factor in new public health risk: Accusations their work is a hoax | Washington Post

"Running beneath it all, in a continuous loop through our national psyche, are basic questions leaders are struggling to answer: When can we safely lift these quarantines? How many people could die if we do it too early? Just how dangerous will this pandemic turn out to be? And what exactly should be our next step?

This is why epidemiology exists. Its practitioners use math and scientific principles to understand disease, project its consequences, and figure out ways to survive and overcome it. Their models are not meant to be crystal balls predicting exact numbers or dates. They forecast how diseases will spread under different conditions. And their models allow policymakers to foresee challenges, understand trend lines and make the best decisions for the public good.

But one factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models."

If I knocked a full bottle of red wine over on the dinner table, i'm not sure that personally, (now this is just me talking here...) that i'd spend a lot of precious time
yelling about the country that grew the grapes, or made the bottle, i'd get a fuckin' cloth and fast, because even a 6 year old knows the spill is spreading unless
you take action to stop it. And if a scientist happened to be at the table, and could quickly calculate how long i had to act, i'd probably listen to them.

-g

[Too Tall]

Well said G. I've got nothing to add.

[Chik]

I know many of you, like me, have pets, and I've seen that the Internet is still full of obsolete information, so I thought it may be worth mentioning that the WHO have amended their statement vis-à-vis pets 2 weeks ago.

They are no longer saying that your pets cannot get the bug from humans.


However, they are saying that currently there is no evidence suggesting that, despite the origin of the virus, domesticated animals can transmit the virus to humans. Note that they are not saying that humans cannot get it from their pets, just that there have not found any evidence.

Here in Belgium, the government just confirmed a case of a cat in Liège contracting the virus from the owner and became symptomatic (diarrhoea, vomiting, difficulty breathing) one week after the owner became symptomatic.

I see that some kennel clubs still have outdated information posted on their web sites, but the situation is evolving so quickly that my suggestion to all is not to rely on any singular source (including this one!). Go directly to Myth busters.

Practically speaking, I don't know that there is anything that we can do differently since abandonment is obviously not on the cards. That said, I don't think we should be operating on false assumptions.

[Mark Kelly]

My understanding of virology says that if the cat was showing symptoms it was sending virus laden fluids into the environment. Given that cats routinely load their fur with saliva there is Buckley's chance that it wouldn't act as an infection source.

[Chik]

A question on immunity: I was watching Trevor Noah's Q&A with Tony Fauci and was reminded of a question I have had. The common statement is that once you have been infected and have recovered, you'll have immunity. It sounds neat and beautiful, but am I correct in thinking that it's contingent on the bug not mutating enough to make that acquired immunity irrelevant?

I get flu every once in a while, but I assume I get a different strain every time instead of getting the same strain because I haven't acquired immunity.

Edumacate me.

[Chik]

My understanding of virology says that if the cat was showing symptoms it was sending virus laden fluids into the environment. Given that cats routinely load their fur with saliva there is Buckley's chance that it wouldn't act as an infection source.

Luckily(?), there hasn't been a documented instance of a cat or a dog infecting a human, but as you say, I don't see why it won't happen.

[Mark Kelly]

A question on immunity: ...

Your immune system learns to recognise certain markers (antigens) that are characteristic of the infection*. If the new infection includes these markers your body will respond quickly and probably defeat it before you become symptomatic. This can last years but weakens with time, hence booster vaccines.

If in the meantime a new version of the infection arises which carrries different markers your body won't recognise them so the process starts again. The strain with different markers will therefore have a big selective advantage once herd immunity has been achieved against the original strain. There are many, many strains of flu, so each year the selection process promotes new ones as they are more likely to be transmitted**.

Before herd immunity rises the selective pressure is lower: a mutated strain won't have much advantage over the original strain if most of the prospective new hosts haven't been exposed to either of them.



* It's not strictly learning but it's a reasonable analogy.

**Since viruses can't reproduce by themselves, they need to infect a host and come out of the host to multiply. Respiratory viruses are very good at this since the body's reaction to the production of fluids in the respiratory system is to remove them, usually at some velocity.

[Chik]

Thanks, Mark. That makes sense.

[jclay]

If I knocked a full bottle of red wine over on the dinner table, i'm not sure that personally, (now this is just me talking here...) that i'd spend a lot of precious time
yelling about the country that grew the grapes, or made the bottle, i'd get a fuckin' cloth and fast, because even a 6 year old knows the spill is spreading unless
you take action to stop it. And if a scientist happened to be at the table, and could quickly calculate how long i had to act, i'd probably listen to them.

-g

But you're not a vile, lying, narcissistic, utterly stupid and destructive POS grifter that managed to con nearly half the country's voters, or one of his administration's army of stooges.

That's the difference.

What with the magic of transcript and video clip compilations of his comments since this thing began, the degree to which he retains support is mind boggling. That so many people can be submerged in the avalanche of the documented evidence of his lies, ignorance, broad spectrum malfeasance and organic stupidity, and refuse to acknowledge it is way beyond astonishing.

[Mark Kelly]

The strain with different markers will therefore have a big selective advantage

The people who design flu shots try to predict which markers will be the most useful targets in the upcoming season and include them in the shot. Of course thier prognostications cannot be 100% accurate and the downside is that anything that they didn't include that manages to gain a small foothold has a big selective advantage and multiplies quickly.

This (partially) explains why idiots often say flu shots don't work.

[Paul Jacobs]

And announced it with a #StayHomeSavesLives hashtag. That is the definition of irony if we needed one.

I fail to see the irony in that. In a way he (Boris Johnson) has demonstrated the validity of the advice to stay at home. That someone who, in attempting to run the country and co-ordinate the response to Covid 19, will have been interacting with multiple individuals daily has become infected is hardly surprising. However careful anyone is with measures like social distancing and hand washing the more contacts there are, even at a distance, the more likely for spread to occur. That is why I, a hospital doctor, have been instructed to isolate at home until I am needed. My routine surgical and clinical work has been cancelled. Although I am not an intensive care expert there will be roles I could perform in hospital if the service becomes overwhelmed or sickness results in the unavailability of medical colleagues. Until that happens I am doing my best to stay healthy. If I do catch Covid 19 disease before or during returning to work I would not regard that as ironic either, just part of the life we are currently all facing.

[pmac]

A question on immunity: I was watching Trevor Noah's Q&A with Tony Fauci and was reminded of a question I have had. The common statement is that once you have been infected and have recovered, you'll have immunity. It sounds neat and beautiful, but am I correct in thinking that it's contingent on the bug not mutating enough to make that acquired immunity irrelevant?

I get flu every once in a while, but I assume I get a different strain every time instead of getting the same strain because I haven't acquired immunity.

Edumacate me.

Both flu and the Covid19 viruses are RNA viruses and make a protein to copy that RNA. The Covid19 virus (SARS-CoV-2), unlike the flu virus, makes an additional protein that has a proofreading function, which reduces the frequency of mutations. The flu virus has another feature not shared by SARS-CoV-2 - the genome is in several parts - that enhances change, and thus enhances the probability that your immune system won't recognize a new version.

[Saab2000]

I don't know who here is a medical professional but there are several it seems. Additionally, it appears several folks are quite knowledgeable about the science of viruses. Not sure if this is their line of work or study or whatever but I find their knowledge and willingness to educate folks like me who know next to nothing very nice. Thanks!

I like the comments on immunity and how they spread very interesting and it gives us hope.

It would be great to hear, if anyone knows anything, about vaccines and progress along those lines.

[Too Tall]

I don't know who here is a medical professional but there are several it seems. Additionally, it appears several folks are quite knowledgeable about the science of viruses. Not sure if this is their line of work or study or whatever but I find their knowledge and willingness to educate folks like me who know next to nothing very nice. Thanks!

I like the comments on immunity and how they spread very interesting and it gives us hope.

It would be great to hear, if anyone knows anything, about vaccines and progress along those lines.

I'm not a medical professional, just terrifyingly close to the sources. If this helps, what I hear is that timeline(s) commonly quoted for safe and effective vaccine are not wrong. Twelve to eighteen months.

"Treatments" are imminent. Count on those going to frontline workers and acute presentations as it should.

[Sbti]

One segment of the economy that must be doing okay are the ad agencies and media companies. Just about every commercial on tv has been reworked to reflect the situation. From the biggest company to the local plumber. Buy a car online and it will be delivered sanitized. Others: "We're closed now but thanks for your support. We'll get through this together." "Weathertech car stuff is non porous and can be sanitized. Stay safe." Local grocery stores and restaurants showing their take out options. "Together we will rebound."

Then with all the working at home stuff, that should generate some buying. All the talking heads are on TV in their fancy (or not) home offices. "My network sucks. My camera and mike suck. I've got to get a new desk. I've got to paint those walls. Some photos/art would be nice."

[j44ke]

One segment of the economy that must be doing okay are the ad agencies and media companies. Just about every commercial on tv has been reworked to reflect the situation. From the biggest company to the local plumber. Buy a car online and it will be delivered sanitized. Others: "We're closed now but thanks for your support. We'll get through this together." "Weathertech car stuff is non porous and can be sanitized. Stay safe." Local grocery stores and restaurants showing their take out options. "Together we will rebound."

Then with all the working at home stuff, that should generate some buying. All the talking heads are on TV in their fancy (or not) home offices. "My network sucks. My camera and mike suck. I've got to get a new desk. I've got to paint those walls. Some photos/art would be nice."

Of course the clincher is that you often can't get anything with which to sanitize all these things.