-- n.e. blizzard...

[bcm119]

What a bust for NY. You have to feel bad for the NYC metro area meteorologists who just lost years of public trust. The models that usually nail these storm in the short range really whiffed on this one, and the one model that got it right was the one that usually can be ignored in the short range. Meteorology is an evolving science, but the public will be pointing fingers for quite a while now.

Meteorologists apologize for huge blizzard miss

[Nierman]

I've never trusted a meteorologist. Pretty sure their jobs are safe.

[monadnocky]

After all the media outlets were just shy of telling us to commit preemptive suicide, here in the Capital District (Concord) NH area we have maybe 8 inches.
Maybe.
I don't think we'll be seeing over 10.
Unbelievable whiff.

[j44ke]

For the last 2-3 years, NYC (Manhattan in particular) seems to have experienced reduced weather severity on average versus what is east or west of them. NJ has typically gotten more weather because it is closer to the mountains in the west, but it seems like middle Long Island weather events have gotten more severe, with increased snow fall, rain fall and wind. There are always exceptions (hurricanes etc.,) but if predictions are based on models relying on past events, I am guessing that there are periods in which the shifts in weather patterns defeat the models until enough data is accumulated to make models more accurate. Because I watch the weather on a daily basis to figure out whether or not I am going to get drenched, parched or frozen, I have seen systems come across the country and then turn, divide, disappear or even appear to hop over the city and then let loose on Brooklyn or middle LI or somewhere else to the north or east.

[Corso]

North shore-MA:
My wife works in health care, and HAD to get to her facility this am. Blasted out of my driveway (Xterra 4x4), was the only car on rt 128 besides plows. Normal half-hour round trip took 1 1/2 hours...

Returned home, to get a text form my teenage daughter still in bed: “Dad, might play pond hockey, did you clean off my car?”

yeah, a text from a kid who is in the same house, and could have looked out her 2nd floor window below…

My reply:

car12715.jpg

[maunahaole]

Pond hockey. Who does she suppose is going to clean off the ice?

[earwig]

I've never trusted a meteorologist. Pretty sure their jobs are safe.

A common trope, but it's rather uncalled for.

There's a strong incentive for weather forecasters to be overly cautious. If they miss a big storm, it can cost lives. If they call a false alarm, it may cost some money in lost productivity, but that's the preferable outcome.

Predicting snow (and ice) are one of the greatest challenges in weather forecasting. Current weather models do an impressive job at predicting temperature, pretty well at likelihood of precipitation, but the amount (and sometimes the form) are more challenging.

That said, weather forecast models have improved dramatically over the past ~20 years. This illustrates the improvement since 1981. 100% represents a perfect forecast, in this case for the European Center model, but other weather service models look similar (side note: US models are falling behind EU and UK models.)
p2001b959g23001.jpg

Image from here: Cliff Mass Weather Blog: Is Numerical Weather Prediction One of Mankind's Greatest Achievements?

[bcm119]

I've never trusted a meteorologist. Pretty sure their jobs are safe.

Meteorologists job performance is based only indirectly on whether their forecasts verify. It sounds like a strange concept, but it actually makes sense. In the case of this storm, they made the forecast that made the most sense given the model output. Their job is to interpret what the models are telling them, and there are many models, each with its own quirks and known biases. Knowing those quirks and biases, and knowing the local geography, the seasonal trends, and also how to word the forecasts given the day of the week, population density, time of day for storms, etc. is their job. In this NY blizzard situation, nature defied what even the most seasoned meteo would correctly interpret from the models and data available to them. Sometimes that happens, and it is not a sign of poor job performance, but a symptom of the fact that models are imperfect. This situation was exacerbated by the fact that nor'easters are inherently difficult to predict in terms of sensible weather, because a 50 mile error in forecasting the track of the storm results in vastly different weather outcomes for millions of people.

[j44ke]

[Nierman]

Sometimes that happens, and it is not a sign of poor job performance, but a symptom of the fact that models are imperfect.

Exactly. My point is that you can never truly put trust in any forecast (unless you live in San Diego). Gotta be prepared for anything. Mother nature has the last say, and this time she spared the paddle.

[Bobonli]

I want my money back on the the 16 gallons of milk, 10 loaves of bread, 1,000 rolls of toilet paper I purchased to prepare for stormageddon. I just finished shoveling and we got about 11 inches (12 in the drifty areas) in north Nassau in NY.

I want my money back not from a meteorologist ( a scientist making an educated prediction) but from govt officials who inflate the magnitude of each storm a little bit each time in a calculated effort to scare the living shit out of people so, in the end, they look good (and over-prepared) when the storm turns out to be something less than the end of the world. My company, a corporate university, cancelled everything for tomorrow based on the grim reaper speeches given by the mayor and governor. Now there's many dozens of people who'll have to reschedule stuff, disrupting our schedule for months.

Good thing these people aren't physicians………"Ma'am, that wart on your finger will eventually encapsulate your entire body and suffocate you to death. Better buy milk and eggs while you can."

[davids]

Yeah, those damn politicians with their scare tactics.

The only thing worse is when they fail to warn us about massive storms, or underestimate the impact of a storm and leave our streets unplowed and people stranded for days on end. Can you imagine if they were doctors? "Ma'am, that growth on your finger might just be a wart so dab it with some Compound W when you have a chance. Cancer? Nah, that's probably not cancer..."

[ron l edmiston]

[QUOTE=Nierman;664712]Exactly. My point is that you can never truly put trust in any forecast (unless you live in San Diego). Gotta be prepared for anything. Mother nature has the last say, and this time she spared the paddle.

*********************************

--- tammy & ronnie found out the real/hard-way after going through 3 major hurricanes.., 1 a direct hit.. "better to show up rehearsed and ready..," & play in the orchestra over that of auditioning..

a smile that all safe & sound..,

ronnie

[Bobonli]

Yeah, those damn politicians with their scare tactics.

The only thing worse is when they fail to warn us about massive storms, or underestimate the impact of a storm and leave our streets unplowed and people stranded for days on end. Can you imagine if they were doctors? "Ma'am, that growth on your finger might just be a wart so dab it with some Compound W when you have a chance. Cancer? Nah, that's probably not cancer..."

There has to be a happy medium, don't you think?

Perhaps Boston is different, but in the NYC area there's a lot of over-hype. And the result is that people become skeptical around the 3d or 15th time the reality doesn't match the hype. Rather than give a 90 minute press conference on all the ways you can die in a storm, how about saying "The storm has the potential to be very damaging and disruptive, please prepare accordingly." Two feet of snow is not "epic" or "the likes of which we've never seen before" (NYC mayor quotes) for the Northeast. Bermuda maybe but not for our part of the world. And we seem to get by despite the hype.

[davids]

There has to be a happy medium, don't you think?

Perhaps Boston is different, but in the NYC area there's a lot of over-hype. And the result is that people become skeptical around the 3d or 15th time the reality doesn't match the hype. Rather than give a 90 minute press conference on all the ways you can die in a storm, how about saying "The storm has the potential to be very damaging and disruptive, please prepare accordingly." Two feet of snow is not "epic" or "the likes of which we've never seen before" (NYC mayor quotes) for the Northeast. Bermuda maybe but not for our part of the world. And we seem to get by despite the hype.

I think government gets damned either way. But DeBlasio is prone to hyperbole...

[j44ke]

Cuomo evidently cancelled the subways in NYC without talking to the engineers who run them or even informing de Blasio. They found out about it from the governor's announcement. In a winter storm, the subways have to keep running over the above ground tracks (many miles of those in the system) to keep them clear. And there is no way to easily pull all the subways off the tracks and put them in storage. Storage is at the extremities of the system and getting everything into and out of the storage yards requires a massive undertaking of musical chairs. So while people weren't on the subways, all the lines had trains running on them all night long. Meanwhile a lot of people were stranded, because their work shifts extended beyond 11PM and when they finished, there were no subways to take them to their home or their car or to connecting transportation (which probably wasn't working either.)

So I agree that government gets blamed either way, but Cuomo has shown himself repeatedly not to be the brightest bulb on the tree. Ambitious and calculating but not brilliantly so.

[fortyfour]

I can't speak for meteorologist's in general, but we all make mistakes and as much science as there is behind it, there is a reason why the saying goes "You can't predict the weather". In Lyndeborough, NH we're currently looking at about 15" and still falling. When I first went out to start plowing/shoveling, it was light, but apparently the storm was supposed to slow down in speed sometime this afternoon and deliver the lion's share of the snow. We're certainly getting it now! It's a good old fashioned blizzard up here. Visibility is pretty poor right now actually. More than 2 inches fell between when I started at the house and finished the lane (maybe took me roughly 45 minutes to an hour to do the lane).

[Philster]

There's a great weather guy on the New England cable channel named Tim Kelly. Last night he was asked by the anchor what he thought he said "serious but not historic". He got a look like he had just said the emperor had no clothes. It's not the science that causes the problem, it's desire for eye-balls. Government needs to treat folks like adults and folks need to act like adults or suffer consequences.

Meanwhile, here's a shot from Essex (CT) village. Notice the snow on the lamp.

photo-61.jpg

[AngryScientist]

politics aside, snow days rock! make you feel like a kid all over again.

[Mabouya]

I love New England, my mother's from there, my sister lives in Maine, and I went to school in NH, but this sort of thing always reminds me that there are easier places to live.