Crowdsourcing predictions of US travel policy in the near future due to COVID

[Mabouya]

Q: How likely do you think it is that some time between Dec 22 and Dec 28 the US will significantly restrict international flights into the US due to increasing rates of COVID-19 caused by the latest variant?

Why I ask:

On Tuesday 22 Dec I will travel down to Haiti to spend Christmas with my mother and sister. It's a bad time to travel, but I couldn't go last year due to COVID, my mother's 84 years old and probably doesn't have a lot of Christmases to go, and my father died on Jan 6 of this year. (almost certainly not due to COVID, but they aren't 100% sure) Both my mother and sister have received two Moderna vaccine shots. I've had the two Pfizer vaccine shots and on Dec 3 got the Moderna booster. I'll be getting a pre-travel COVID test on Monday, and will have to get a second one on the 27th before I return.

Bottom line, as much as I like being with my family, I don't want to be stuck down there for what could be a TBD period of time, if for some reason the US shuts down international travel before I get back to the States.

Any semi-informed speculation will be welcomed.

TIA

[Saab2000]

Personally, I believe any attempt to close down air travel or implement another lockdown of sorts will be met with strong resistance from many sides. I don’t believe the president has the political capital to do this nor do I think he’s interested.

That’s my opinion only.

Not trying to get into the partisan weeds at all. I just don’t believe anyone really wants another lockdown or economic catastrophe from further shutting down travel. Again, just my opinion.

These opinions are worth what they cost you.

[Tom]

My totally uninformed opinion is a travel shutdown would be a waste unless there's new information. The variants were here before we knew it and personal mitigation tactics (get vaccinated, mask up) are well known and readily available. Not to mention that air travel is one of the less risky activities related to this.

[vertical_doug]

I just flew from Heathrow to JFK. I think NYC is about a week behind London in Omni spread, and it happens fast.
Having said that, if you are either a US citizen, or permanent resident, you always have the right to re-enter into the US, so it is not an issue for you. Even when the US banned European entry into the US, I went back and forth between NY/London multiple times for business.

You only need the antigen test to be fit-to-fly, so that is much easier and quicker. I believe you can get the test at the airport for $50 (https://ht.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/)

I'd buy some antigen tests and bring these with. I brought two boxes of the NHS lateral flow tests from the UK (NHS distributes for free, I am cheap bastard) so if we visit someone outside of our household for the holidays, we can test the morning before going.

The worst thing that can happen is a positive test for your flight. In that case, I do not know the protocol for how long you have to isolate before travelling to the US. This happened to my colleague last Thursday. He was planning to leave London for Israel, and test positive so is now stuck for 10 days isolation before he can test again.

For the US, I think you only need to isolate until you have a negative test. (However, I'd consult with the US Embassy on this in Haiti or possibly the airline..)

On the bright side, your mother will be so happy to see you. It will be well worth any hassle.
It's a no brainer in my opinion.

[ides1056]

Just get your third dose of vaccine and you should be good. It will make all the difference if you are exposed along the way. The rest is doable, but if you get sick you won't be happy. I am watching this play out very close to home, and it rankles.

[j44ke]

The variable is flight cancellations. A few people we know got marooned by flight cancellations in a couple instances. My wife had flights "moved" to later in the day. Each instance seemed to be due to staffing issues, but maybe those are better now. But with current impression of omicron's infectiousness, I could see staffing becoming a problem again.

Friends' 19 year old daughter just had a sleep over party with friends back from college last week, and everyone (text this morning) is now positive. Our pilates teacher just got his positive PCR results this morning. Our friends who work at the Met Opera just cancelled dinner with us last night due to rapidly increasing positive tests at the Opera. They are pretty sure it is just a matter of a few days before they test positive. All of these are people vaccinated and boostered.

Once the science settles out on actual "behavior" of the variant things may be more predictable. Right now most of what is coming from the press seems to be educated guessing, which is to be expected at this point I suppose. The suggestion is that the infections are at least mitigated by vaccination, but current positives may not be a comprehensive sample. And even a positive that results in a mild form of illness subtracts that person from the work force, so there's the potential for flight cancellations.

[j44ke]

This is a good example of the range of informed postulation. Projection? Interpolation?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/trave...ealth-experts/

I figure at some point, the variants will out-number each other on a revolving basis. There will always be a new variant and the horizon on "normalcy" is distant enough to be meaningless. So make your decisions accordingly.

[claritycycler]

Friends' 19 year old daughter just had a sleep over party with friends back from college last week, and everyone (text this morning) is now positive. Our pilates teacher just got his positive PCR results this morning. Our friends who work at the Met Opera just cancelled dinner with us last night due to rapidly increasing positive tests at the Opera. They are pretty sure it is just a matter of a few days before they test positive. All of these are people vaccinated and boostered.

Discouraging.

[bigbill]

In two weeks, I'll pay the remainder for the house I'm renting in Annapolis for my son's naval academy graduation in May. It's a once-in-a-lifetime event for him, if they lockdown he'll still graduate, but it will severely limit who can attend if anyone gets to attend at all. The 2020 graduation was virtual. I haven't bought my plane tickets yet, I'll drive if I have to.

[gregl]

In two weeks, I'll pay the remainder for the house I'm renting in Annapolis for my son's naval academy graduation in May. It's a once-in-a-lifetime event for him, if they lockdown he'll still graduate, but it will severely limit who can attend if anyone gets to attend at all. The 2020 graduation was virtual. I haven't bought my plane tickets yet, I'll drive if I have to.

Keep the faith, Bill! I was in the same boat (no pun to a Navy man!) a year ago. By May, a combination of vaccine availability and the seasonality/variability of the virus allowed my daughter’s outdoor graduation to take place. There were limitations (only two guests, proof of vaccination or negative test to enter the college grounds, masks required, etc…), but we were able to celebrate an in-person graduation. My sincere best wishes that you and your son can celebrate a much deserved achievement this coming spring!

Greg

[bigbill]

Keep the faith, Bill! I was in the same boat (no pun to a Navy man!) a year ago. By May, a combination of vaccine availability and the seasonality/variability of the virus allowed my daughter’s outdoor graduation to take place. There were limitations (only two guests, proof of vaccination or negative test to enter the college grounds, masks required, etc…), but we were able to celebrate an in-person graduation. My sincere best wishes that you and your son can celebrate a much deserved achievement this coming spring!

Greg

Thanks. Last year they made the call early on how many people could attend graduation. It was early enough to make or break travel plans, each mid got six tickets for family. Right now, there is a spike of covid at the academy despite a vaccinated student body. They're pretty much locked down heading into winter break on Monday.

[j44ke]

Discouraging.

Denmark agrees.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...riant-denmark/

[bigbill]

Last Thursday we flew to Newark from Vegas for the Army-Navy game. All the airports required masks, Vegas and Charlotte (connection) were pretty good, Newark not so much. We connected in Dallas on the way back, there were more unmasked folks than the other airports. We had dinner in Washington Height (NYC) on Thursday night. Every Uber required a mask in both NJ and NY. The restaurant wanted proof of vaccination (photo) and required masks until seated. Friday was at Ground Zero, masks were required in the museum but outside, most were unmasked. Dinner in NJ on Friday night, no masks. Army-Navy game, not a mask in sight.

What strikes me as odd is the high death rate right now. This town of 32K lost 24 people this week. If a tour bus flipped over and killed 24 people, it would be all over the news. I don't want to start another Covid thread, but either we're burned out or apathetic about those who are dying now. An employee was one of the 24, he was in his 50s and believed that Covid wasn't real and refused to be vaccinated. His last three weeks of life were on his belly on a ventilator. If it was any comfort to the hospital staff, we made the intubation boxes they've used for the past two years.

[72gmc]

We have a trip out of the country planned for later in 2022. As of now my plan is to bring what I’ll need to work remotely, in case I get stuck behind a positive test/quarantine/policy change.

[bking]

Go see your mother. Somethings are worth dealing with come what may.

[vertical_doug]

What strikes me as odd is the high death rate right now. This town of 32K lost 24 people this week. If a tour bus flipped over and killed 24 people, it would be all over the news. I don't want to start another Covid thread, but either we're burned out or apathetic about those who are dying now. An employee was one of the 24, he was in his 50s and believed that Covid wasn't real and refused to be vaccinated. His last three weeks of life were on his belly on a ventilator. If it was any comfort to the hospital staff, we made the intubation boxes they've used for the past two years.

I don't think it is odd at all. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Number of daily infections has remained stubbornly high since end of August in the US. Vaccinations have largely stalled at 60%. For Arizonia, it is 52%, and this is probably skewed by Phoenix and Tuscon. Kingman is probably <50%.

I look at this as everyone is now about to catch the flu in the next 4 weeks. Instead of the typical 5-10% of the population, 50% of the population will catch it . . . even with flu mortality, that is a lot of death. I am a bit sanguine on this as I view this as the inevitability that had to happen- A little humility for the human race with respect to mother nature.

[Mabouya]

Thanks to all for your comments.

As was suggested above, I think the more likely scenario is not that flights would be suspended, but that I might test positive right before I return. When I went down there in July '21 I was amazed by how closely packed people were in all of the airports, totally ignoring the 6 feet apart "spots on the floor." At least most folks were wearing masks.

I guess all you can do is be careful, wear a decent mask (I've been using Powecom KN95's) and hope for the best.

[fastupslowdown]

Late to this thread. Europe is going into lockdown again. The Netherlands introduced new measures and France is restricting visitors from the U.K. It's a real possibility that flights get curtailed or new measures put in place

[ides1056]

I will travel to CA in January. Boosted and masked I expect to be fine.

[bigbill]

Thanks to all for your comments.

As was suggested above, I think the more likely scenario is not that flights would be suspended, but that I might test positive right before I return. When I went down there in July '21 I was amazed by how closely packed people were in all of the airports, totally ignoring the 6 feet apart "spots on the floor." At least most folks were wearing masks.

I guess all you can do is be careful, wear a decent mask (I've been using Powecom KN95's) and hope for the best.

At Newark, the TSA lines had 6' spots for social distancing but no one paid any attention to them, including TSA. Honestly, if you look at process flow, some spacing between folks in the TSA line would likely increase efficiency.

I'm the chief engineer at a manufacturing plant. We put measures in place almost two years ago with engineered controls such as motion switches, touchless faucets and soap dispensers, and ADA compliant door handles. We also rearranged some manufacturing processes to move people 6' apart. It's the hierarchy of engineering, an inherently safe design, adding guarding, procedures, training, and PPE for the operators. As a nation, we're missing the mark on the last three.