Crowdsourcing predictions of US travel policy in the near future due to COVID

[Mabouya]

Q: How likely do you think it is that some time between Dec 22 and Dec 28 the US will significantly restrict international flights into the US due to increasing rates of COVID-19 caused by the latest variant?

Why I ask:

On Tuesday 22 Dec I will travel down to Haiti to spend Christmas with my mother and sister. It's a bad time to travel, but I couldn't go last year due to COVID, my mother's 84 years old and probably doesn't have a lot of Christmases to go, and my father died on Jan 6 of this year. (almost certainly not due to COVID, but they aren't 100% sure) Both my mother and sister have received two Moderna vaccine shots. I've had the two Pfizer vaccine shots and on Dec 3 got the Moderna booster. I'll be getting a pre-travel COVID test on Monday, and will have to get a second one on the 27th before I return.

Bottom line, as much as I like being with my family, I don't want to be stuck down there for what could be a TBD period of time, if for some reason the US shuts down international travel before I get back to the States.

Any semi-informed speculation will be welcomed.

TIA

[Saab2000]

Personally, I believe any attempt to close down air travel or implement another lockdown of sorts will be met with strong resistance from many sides. I don’t believe the president has the political capital to do this nor do I think he’s interested.

That’s my opinion only.

Not trying to get into the partisan weeds at all. I just don’t believe anyone really wants another lockdown or economic catastrophe from further shutting down travel. Again, just my opinion.

These opinions are worth what they cost you.

[Tom]

My totally uninformed opinion is a travel shutdown would be a waste unless there's new information. The variants were here before we knew it and personal mitigation tactics (get vaccinated, mask up) are well known and readily available. Not to mention that air travel is one of the less risky activities related to this.

[vertical_doug]

I just flew from Heathrow to JFK. I think NYC is about a week behind London in Omni spread, and it happens fast.
Having said that, if you are either a US citizen, or permanent resident, you always have the right to re-enter into the US, so it is not an issue for you. Even when the US banned European entry into the US, I went back and forth between NY/London multiple times for business.

You only need the antigen test to be fit-to-fly, so that is much easier and quicker. I believe you can get the test at the airport for $50 (https://ht.usembassy.gov/covid-19-information/)

I'd buy some antigen tests and bring these with. I brought two boxes of the NHS lateral flow tests from the UK (NHS distributes for free, I am cheap bastard) so if we visit someone outside of our household for the holidays, we can test the morning before going.

The worst thing that can happen is a positive test for your flight. In that case, I do not know the protocol for how long you have to isolate before travelling to the US. This happened to my colleague last Thursday. He was planning to leave London for Israel, and test positive so is now stuck for 10 days isolation before he can test again.

For the US, I think you only need to isolate until you have a negative test. (However, I'd consult with the US Embassy on this in Haiti or possibly the airline..)

On the bright side, your mother will be so happy to see you. It will be well worth any hassle.
It's a no brainer in my opinion.

[ides1056]

Just get your third dose of vaccine and you should be good. It will make all the difference if you are exposed along the way. The rest is doable, but if you get sick you won't be happy. I am watching this play out very close to home, and it rankles.

[j44ke]

The variable is flight cancellations. A few people we know got marooned by flight cancellations in a couple instances. My wife had flights "moved" to later in the day. Each instance seemed to be due to staffing issues, but maybe those are better now. But with current impression of omicron's infectiousness, I could see staffing becoming a problem again.

Friends' 19 year old daughter just had a sleep over party with friends back from college last week, and everyone (text this morning) is now positive. Our pilates teacher just got his positive PCR results this morning. Our friends who work at the Met Opera just cancelled dinner with us last night due to rapidly increasing positive tests at the Opera. They are pretty sure it is just a matter of a few days before they test positive. All of these are people vaccinated and boostered.

Once the science settles out on actual "behavior" of the variant things may be more predictable. Right now most of what is coming from the press seems to be educated guessing, which is to be expected at this point I suppose. The suggestion is that the infections are at least mitigated by vaccination, but current positives may not be a comprehensive sample. And even a positive that results in a mild form of illness subtracts that person from the work force, so there's the potential for flight cancellations.

[j44ke]

This is a good example of the range of informed postulation. Projection? Interpolation?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/trave...ealth-experts/

I figure at some point, the variants will out-number each other on a revolving basis. There will always be a new variant and the horizon on "normalcy" is distant enough to be meaningless. So make your decisions accordingly.

[claritycycler]

Friends' 19 year old daughter just had a sleep over party with friends back from college last week, and everyone (text this morning) is now positive. Our pilates teacher just got his positive PCR results this morning. Our friends who work at the Met Opera just cancelled dinner with us last night due to rapidly increasing positive tests at the Opera. They are pretty sure it is just a matter of a few days before they test positive. All of these are people vaccinated and boostered.

Discouraging.

[72gmc]

We have a trip out of the country planned for later in 2022. As of now my plan is to bring what I’ll need to work remotely, in case I get stuck behind a positive test/quarantine/policy change.

[bking]

Go see your mother. Somethings are worth dealing with come what may.

[Mabouya]

Thanks to all for your comments.

As was suggested above, I think the more likely scenario is not that flights would be suspended, but that I might test positive right before I return. When I went down there in July '21 I was amazed by how closely packed people were in all of the airports, totally ignoring the 6 feet apart "spots on the floor." At least most folks were wearing masks.

I guess all you can do is be careful, wear a decent mask (I've been using Powecom KN95's) and hope for the best.

[fastupslowdown]

Late to this thread. Europe is going into lockdown again. The Netherlands introduced new measures and France is restricting visitors from the U.K. It's a real possibility that flights get curtailed or new measures put in place

[ides1056]

I will travel to CA in January. Boosted and masked I expect to be fine.

[bigbill]

Thanks to all for your comments.

As was suggested above, I think the more likely scenario is not that flights would be suspended, but that I might test positive right before I return. When I went down there in July '21 I was amazed by how closely packed people were in all of the airports, totally ignoring the 6 feet apart "spots on the floor." At least most folks were wearing masks.

I guess all you can do is be careful, wear a decent mask (I've been using Powecom KN95's) and hope for the best.

At Newark, the TSA lines had 6' spots for social distancing but no one paid any attention to them, including TSA. Honestly, if you look at process flow, some spacing between folks in the TSA line would likely increase efficiency.

I'm the chief engineer at a manufacturing plant. We put measures in place almost two years ago with engineered controls such as motion switches, touchless faucets and soap dispensers, and ADA compliant door handles. We also rearranged some manufacturing processes to move people 6' apart. It's the hierarchy of engineering, an inherently safe design, adding guarding, procedures, training, and PPE for the operators. As a nation, we're missing the mark on the last three.

[j44ke]

We incentivized vaccines but we're still around 60%. This location has 700ish employees but tracking vaccination rates is tough because of high turnover in some departments. Manufacturers don't have materials, vendors to manufacturing plants don't have material. We're trying to keep our staffing for the expected orders, but we'll likely not meet either one. The latest hit was the flooding in BC that punched a hole in the timber industry. Prices have nearly doubled from their already inflated price. We're investing in equipment that automates processes now performed by people. With attrition, no one loses their job to a machine, we have other openings. But, for every process I can automate, I can turn it on and off as needed, can't do that with people. Covid has taught us how to operate more efficiently. When you've had grown accustomed to an "embarrassment of riches" when it comes to resources, you have to learn some things all over again.

Right, makes sense. There are no vacuums or unlinked cubby-holes to shortages now. Everything is linked. And automation is part of the solution.

On one hand there have been plenty of stories in the papers about personal empowerment and quality of life decisions by people who view their jobs as substandard in either category. On the other, there may be a whole range of delayed efficiencies - as you describe - that business implements now. Covid as opportunity. Inevitably that’s going to create some gaps that will have to be overcome.

Reading some reporting on Manchin v. Biden. Hard to know who is being short-sighted and who is also being short-sighted just in a more damaging way.