Youth Unemployment

[caleb]

A hard hitting NY Times Op-Ed published today draws out some parallels between the Egyptian situation and our own. Here are some choice snippets...

"About one-fourth of Egyptian workers under 25 are unemployed, a statistic that is often cited as a reason for the revolution there. In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in January an official unemployment rate of 21 percent for workers ages 16 to 24."

"As governments across the developed world balance their budgets, I fear that the young will bear the brunt of the pain: taxes on workers will be raised and spending on education will be cut while mortgage subsidies and entitlements for the elderly are untouchable. At least the Saudis and Kuwaitis are trying to bribe their younger subjects."

What is to be done?

[Britishbane]

"

What is to be done?

F-me, I dont know. Just know that I'm one of them, not unemployed, but underemployed-graduate degree scanning groceries.

[mnoble485]

As I get closer to the time of retirement I am glad that I am not just now starting out. Talking to friends with kids graduating college it is scarey. The American Dream was alive and well when I entered the market. Not so much now.

No solutions but I share your concerns.

Mike

[quickag]

not unemployed, but underemployed-graduate degree

I'm with you. Since companies generally don't think long-term anymore, they tend to only hire people with experience. Then you're in the "chicken or the egg" cycle.

I think corporate culture has changed as well. There was a time when someone would work for a company for an extended period of time due to company loyalty. Come to work, work hard and your boss would take care of you. Work harder than the rest and you're rewarded. The only option I have for promotion in my field is to leave my job for somewhere else. This is really too bad...I would love to work for a company that would invest in me in the same way I invest myself in my job.

[caleb]

I don't think the unemployment/underemployment is going to be chronic. Lots of highly paid workers will retire as soon as their portfolios come back and they feel financially stable again. That's going to open up a bunch of good jobs for middle level people to move up and make vacancies at the lower rungs of good employment.

What does worry me, though, is seeing good jobs turned into so-so jobs. For example, a friend of mine came back from living abroad three years ago and couldn't find work. He took a position filling orders in a warehouse. Pretty soon he was second in command at the warehouse, in charge of the second shift. He was making $30k and his boss, a VP of the smallish company, was making $95k. The president gets to know my buddy and is impressed by him at the same time that the current VP is not impressing him so much. VP gets the boot, my buddy gets his job. Cool, right? Kind of. The president demoted the position to middling status and assigned it a salary of $45k. So a job paying $95k got turned into a $45k job without much change in the responsibilities.

My biggest fear about the employment market is that when jobs start opening up due to retirements budget managers are going to look at them as opportunities to cut costs, turning good jobs into so-so jobs with the aggregate effect of repressing wages for white collar work for the long term. In an environment where most people have fixed and escalating financial commitments/liabilities (mortgage, car, property tax, etcetera) the lack of wage growth could be a big problem.

[54ny77]

reminds me of this funny scene...

[edoz]

option 1: spend 60k to get a degree so you can hope to make 40k/yr in a highly cut throat job market
option 2: apprentice as a plumber/electrician/carpenter for a few years and make 40k+/yr in a good job market with no student loans to pay off

[quickag]

option 1: spend 60k to get a degree so you can hope to make 40k/yr in a highly cut throat job market
option 2: apprentice as a plumber/electrician/carpenter for a few years and make 40k+/yr in a good job market with no student loans to pay off

This is a great idea...if your school district supports it. VoTech was nonexistant when I went to school. I always had my heart set on working for Porsche but things never worked out. Hell, I even speak German fluently.

[edoz]

This is a great idea...if your school district supports it. VoTech was nonexistant when I went to school. I always had my heart set on working for Porsche but things never worked out. Hell, I even speak German fluently.

Yeah, unfortunately you're right about vo-tech. Schools are cutting back their programs (along with phys ed) cause they think everyone needs to go to college. Private tech schools are popping up all over, but there again you're dropping several grand for just enough training to get your first job. You can still do it the old fashioned way, there are plenty of places that still hire clueless kids and turn them into craftsmen. Btw, has Don Ferris filled that job opening yet?

[Britishbane]

This is a great idea...if your school district supports it. VoTech was nonexistant when I went to school. I always had my heart set on working for Porsche but things never worked out. Hell, I even speak German fluently.

Let me out your mind at ease. I have an engineer friend who worked for Porsche and hated it. Said he couldn't get away fast enough.

[Brandon White]

Let me out your mind at ease. I have an engineer friend who worked for Porsche and hated it. Said he couldn't get away fast enough.

Is it the culture of the workplace they disliked or the industry? When I lived in Ohio, I knew a few engineers for Honda and they all loved it. Also ... they were Japanese - not that it matters, but maybe working for a company overseas owned by your own people is more rewarding?

Regarding the whole getting out of college and finding a corporate job - I'm trying to find the article about Harvard grads. They find its much easier to create a job/company on your own rather than going to work for someone and they have a pretty good success rate. Granted, I'm sure this mentality is planted in them from the time they are young, but an entrepreneurial spirit is a great thing to have.

For the unemployment - I am seeing this happen in Brazil as well. Kids are going to school until they are 24 years old and coming out unable to find jobs. Many of the good jobs are with government run corporations and once you are in - you are in for life, but the positions rarely open. 1/2 of my wife's cousins have law degrees but are working at clothing stores because they can't get a job in the judicial system. The kids that are "succeeding" have gotten technical (IT) degrees and are working on contract jobs for Motorola, IBM and HP. But my Brother-in-law is a manager of his team/project and doesn't even make enough to support himself there when he could have the same job here and make $60K.

[King Of Dirk]

There's something to be said for living longer. Hell, it's far better than the alternative.

But it does mean less attrition in the workplace. That's okay in an ever-expanding economy. Unfortunately there's no such thing. People who, ten years ago, believed they'd retire in 2011 are finding they can't, or would prefer not to given the uncertainty the world faces. That's a spot a younger, less experienced person can't have. White collar jobs can be brutal in this way; most seventy year olds can do my taxes just fine, take a deposition just fine (better, probably), and extract a tooth just fine. Some of these sick bastards even - gasp - enjoy their work, and it's not about money at all.

Folks under forty need to understand something: you're not going to "retire," at least not in the way we've known it for the last century. The bad news is those commericals with the grey-haired couples in bathtubs on beaches in the Caribbean don't, and won't, apply to you. The good news is your financial advisor is useless - the fact that you're half a million dollars in debt to Ivy U. for the six degrees you've had to rack up to get a job doesn't matter. At 35 or so, you've got at least 45 years left in the workplace. And in 45 years, that half million bucks won't buy a used Camry. It's all going to be okay.

Unless you get sick and survive.

[Britishbane]

Is it the culture of the workplace they disliked or the industry? When I lived in Ohio, I knew a few engineers for Honda and they all loved it. Also ... they were Japanese - not that it matters, but maybe working for a company overseas owned by your own people is more rewarding?

It was the culture of the workplace and more specifically the people he worked with (i.e. other engineers). For all intents and purposes my friend is Germanic, no idea whether or not that played a role.

He did say that there were track days in which they could go drive Porsche's as hard and fast as they wanted.....now THAT sounds awesome.

[caleb]

option 1: spend 60k to get a degree so you can hope to make 40k/yr in a highly cut throat job market
option 2: apprentice as a plumber/electrician/carpenter for a few years and make 40k+/yr in a good job market with no student loans to pay off

One downside is that lots of guys don't make it to 65 working every day with their hands. Their backs, shoulders, knees, etcetera "go" and they find themselves collecting disability at 55. Someone in a non-physical occupation can often work 10-15 years more.

[edoz]

One downside is that lots of guys don't make it to 65 working every day with their hands. Their backs, shoulders, knees, etcetera "go" and they find themselves collecting disability at 55. Someone in a non-physical occupation can often work 10-15 years more.

I've got to take issue with this one. I've been worked into the ground by plenty of guys who were pushing retirement age. Hell, my grandfather worked professionally as a carpenter well into his 70s, and worked part time until he died at 91.
I look around at the weld shop I work in, and at 39 I'm in the middle. Half the guys in the shop are older than me. I just can't believe that sitting in an office for 30 years is somehow easier on a person, by that logic sitting in front of the TV every night will help you live longer than going out and being active.

[caleb]

I've got to take issue with this one. I've been worked into the ground by plenty of guys who were pushing retirement age. Hell, my grandfather worked professionally as a carpenter well into his 70s, and worked part time until he died at 91.
I look around at the weld shop I work in, and at 39 I'm in the middle. Half the guys in the shop are older than me. I just can't believe that sitting in an office for 30 years is somehow easier on a person, by that logic sitting in front of the TV every night will help you live longer than going out and being active.

While I'm sure your observations are true, they aren't really representative of the big picture. Here's Stattin and Jarvholm's (2005) summary of disability by employment category:

Picture 1.png

I can't link the article here, but I have it on my computer and will send it to anyone who wants it.

[edoz]

While I'm sure your observations are true, they aren't really representative of the big picture. Here's Stattin and Jarvholm's (2005) summary of disability by employment category:

Picture 1.png

I can't link the article here, but I have it on my computer and will send it to anyone who wants it.

Yeah, there's an bigger risk of getting hurt on the job for a plumber over an office worker. You get jacked up bigtime, you end up on disability. That's not really evidence that a person can't do the day to day work when they're 60. There are plenty of old plumbers. That's just evidence of the higher penalty for failure. Kinda how air travel is safer than driving, but when the shit hits the fan, it hits big.
I think you have to take into consideration the sedentary nature of office work, and it's contribution to a general state of poor health. Add obesity, heart disease and other inactivity related problems to that graph and I think a different story will emerge.

[54ny77]

My father in law is 72 and works 6 days a week as a car mechanic (his business of 50+ years), and drives a snow plow in winter, the latter out in pre-dawn storms as wicked as they get.

It's pretty friggin' inspirational, is what it is.

I hope to be as healthy and productive at his age.

I've got to take issue with this one. I've been worked into the ground by plenty of guys who were pushing retirement age. Hell, my grandfather worked professionally as a carpenter well into his 70s, and worked part time until he died at 91.
I look around at the weld shop I work in, and at 39 I'm in the middle. Half the guys in the shop are older than me. I just can't believe that sitting in an office for 30 years is somehow easier on a person, by that logic sitting in front of the TV every night will help you live longer than going out and being active.

[false_aesthetic]

option 1: spend 60k to get a degree so you can hope to make 40k/yr in a highly cut throat job market
option 2: apprentice as a plumber/electrician/carpenter for a few years and make 40k+/yr in a good job market with no student loans to pay off

#2 is a bit harder if you're in a big city + if your community colleges/trade techs/vo-techs have been cut back again and again in favor of the White Collar Lie.

[EricKeller]

what we should do is call our congressmen and tell them to listen to Krugman. We could spend our way out of the deficit, cutting back is going to make it worse. Ya, some systems are non-linear but our economy responds to some pretty simple rules.

The minimum wage was referenced above. It has really fallen quite a bit over the years. Minimum wage when I was working in a bike shop back in the '70s was somewhere in the mid-teens in today's dollars. There is no point in discounting it further. Greenspan is a bloviating hack and republican tool. He has been exposed as such by the last few years.

I can do just about everything. Contrary to stereotype, a curious mind and a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering is a pretty potent combination. The only thing I worry about is getting assasinated by the CIA because I might fall into the wrong hands.