Who will challenge Trump? Who you like?

[Corso]

Thought it was time to move this topic out of the impeachment thread. I thought something along these lines was already around, but perhaps that was an old one.

So now that the primaries have begun, what are your thoughts? Bernie? Pete? Amy? Liz? Joe?

What do you think they can actually deliver on, campaign promise-wise?

Talk to me!

[JJohnson]

Bernie.

Bernie would beat Trump.

Who can deliver on their promises? I don't think anyone besides Bernie or Liz has any radical type of promise. Pete, Amy, and Joe all have status quo campaign promises. Those, I'm sure, would be easy to deliver on.

It'd be difficult for Bernie or Liz to deliver on promises in 4 years without a blue House and Senate. There would be too much big money opposition to get things done, especially without the use of executive orders. They would move the needle in the right direction, though, without a doubt.

[HorsCat]

Sanders will lose handily to Trump.

Buttigieg's age is a liability.

Klobuchar is a relative unknown. On paper I like her.

Biden is done (and couldn't get it done, IMO). So, too, Warren.

Which leaves us with Bloomberg. I like his chances against Trump. I'd prefer not to have a billionaire but at least he's a real one, self-made, and a good leader to boot. The debates would be entertaining, but my guess is that Trump is too much of a coward to attend.

[Scott G.]

My guy, Sherrod Brown is waiting to run against Ivanka in 2024.
DJT's pick is the Crotchety Comrade, according to the rally speech
I heard. Thomas Friedman endorsed Bloomberg, so Bloomberg
is doomed.

Hillary will ride to the rescue at the convention, resulting in
a Jeremy Corbyn level defeat of the Dems.

See you 2024.

[jerk]

i should really keep these stupid opinions to myself because they're not going to do anything except get me into fights, be misunderstood, and what good is it anyway?

i'm a socialist. i'm a white cis man with all the privilege an asshole with that background could hope to have. the proverbial megaphone that's culturally and historically and economically attached to my mouth is super loud and clear and my voice lets me get far more of what i want than I deserve and I don't even recognize the half of it.

that being said i don't like Bernie. He won't beat Trump and if by a miracle he did- he would be a terrible leader for this country without a drastic reversal of his most popular policies and a total reshaping of the way in which he sees the world.


I wrote the following in a private conversation to a bunch of pals. I hope you can take it for what it is- just another dumb white dude's attempt to make sense of this country and where we're at and where we're going.

Bernie is a racist just like I'm a racist. It's really neither of our faults- he like most white men of his generation just have been white American men their whole lives and lived most of their life in a world that white hetero middle class wasp male isn't a thing. it's just the baseline normal. George Washington wasn't the first WASP president- Donald Trump is and guys like Bernie fail to see that.

African-Americans are for the most part going to stay home if Bernie is the nominee and the few that don't might vote for Trump because in terms of racial issues he's actually about 100x more aware of them than Bernie is. (He's on the wrong side of almost all of them- but he does inhabit a world where Race is an actual thing in a way I don't feel Bernie does.)

Frankly- if you're a young Black man or woman- it's got to be fucking appalling to see a bunch of white liberals championing a socialism which honestly believes its primary focus should be the wholesale forgiveness of voluntary heavily federally subsidized debt- that uniformly was used to position middle and upper class white americans in ever increasing positions of power and wealth. University education turns up the volume and increases the power of the megaphone that is culturally installed upon the mouth of every CIS white man in this country. These types incurred some debt that was heavily subsidized by the backbreaking labor of black and brown women and men- in order to increase their power and now they want ALL that shit forgiven? Where are we taking that money from? Bernie says our inflated defense budget? Oh- ok we'll shrink the only governmental institution in this country that fosters equality, fights racism, produces working class people who are tolerant, educated and skilled, and demographically is more african american, more hispanic, more immigrant, more working class, and even more female than just about any industry in this country. Not to mention when Uncle Sam is the client- companies need to live up to the standards that all our companies ought to. Defense contractors have to allow labor unions, they have to have women on their boards, they have to generally make their shit for living wages here in this country and they have to be stable and show that they will exist for the long term. They also make things and employ people and advance technology and can't simply chase stock dividends and move paper for profit. If you've got a contract to privide a dozen Littoral class cruisers- Bath Ironworks needs to hire welders, machinists, and a host of other skilled workers for years if not decades to deliver those ships. They're not short selling futures or bundling sub-prime mortages. They're employing people- following strict federal guidelines that generally favor the worker more than other industries, and local communities benefit when a bunch of folks are bringing home 60-150,000 a year. You make that much money in America and you spend it all- and you spend it all here. It's not sitting in a bank or getting magically changed into make believe things that only exist in terms of 0s and 1s... but I digress.

I'm not saying the military is good- but its actually a hell of a lot better than just about anything private industry has ever produced- and drastically shrinking it without investing in similar public programs that foster citizenship, education, our best american values, and force americans of all backgrounds to work with and depend and identify with each other is absurd. Especially when the money will be used to just further help people who really don't need to be any more enabled.

Even the healthcare thing comes across towards working class americans and people of color as a conceit that yet again- is going to redistribute income to benefit middle class and upper class white Americans.

Warren's policies speak much more eloquently to the structural issues of late capitalism and are far more in tune with the realities of the issues facing women, people of color, and other oppressed peoples in our country. I wish Bernie were Colker's Nazi stereotype of a Jew we saw in another thread. Were he cosmopolitan intellectual, international, and secular in a modernist sense- he wouldn't be able to continually inhabit this fantasy world of a 1950s Wallace Democrat. This country isnt a country just for middle class white men anymore- and if we do right by that group- the old conceit that every other group will also do better has been systematically disproven. We could almost convince ourselves thirty years ago that the natural progression of American was that every group here (with the exception of African-Americans and Native Americans who didn't become part of this thing of their own accord) becomes essentially a White CIS Male Wasp within a few generations. It happened to the Scotch-Irish, it happened to the Germans, the Irish, the Slavs, the Italians, the Jews, it's happening to Latinos, and Gay folks, and even women it could have been argued. Well not anymore. Not in Trump's America. White CIS Men are an actual thing now that as Trump has shown- have surrendered themselves into a separate bigotry. Bernie's conceit that make sure this coountry takes care of middle class white men and everyone else will quickly catch up and basically become that- is slowly being disproven. The structural realities of racism, sexism, classism, and oppression are simply becoming far too vital to the economic system of capital accumulation. Everyone is fucked- and there are oppressed people in this country who are far more fucked than the white middle class men we've always used as the yard stick.

The better that group does and the more the resources of this country are red-istributed to improve their lot- the greater the income discrepencies, the more ghettoization in our cities an culture as a whole occurs, and the more figurative duct tape is wrapped around the mouths of women and oppressed people while better megaphones are attached to the mouths of white men.

I wish I could get behind Bernie- but I honestly think his vulgur socialism is going to be terrible for this country. We need leadership that fundamentally recognizes the multitudes of experience and oppressions and sees its job as having to end them. Frankly- this country should be like our army. Sexism, Racism, Classism should not be tolerated at any level and we should use all our skills at creating structure and rules to destroy privilege. Frankly this country is worse for white middle class men when they have advantage over everyone else. Our society simply isn't working optimally. You'd never go to war with an army in today's day and age that demanded that 80% of the medals be given to 20% of the soldiers based on some arbitrary thing that should have been thrown away inside the recruitment office.

I've said it before- I like my government but I fear my country and I want a president who is going to prioritize the interests of those among us who have the least voice, the lowest opportunities, face the greatest hurdles, and are more aware of the increasing cracks our system is threatining them with. I don't need my college education subsidized any furhter by the labors of black and brown people and single moms. I already got more than my fair share out of that sketchy deal. Likewise- while I want a public option for health care- because I know that soon no one would pick anything else- I don't need it funded at the expense of any other government program. They just need to enroll anyone who wants to be enrolled in it- in the same healthcare plan we offer to our State Department, Department of Transportation, or Senators or Astronauts.

Anyway- sorry for the ra t.

[e-RICHIE]

Defense contractors have to allow labor unions, <cut>

All industries should have to allow labor unions.

[Mabouya]

As much as I would like to see it happen, I don't think there's any way Bernie beats Trump.

He's just as divisive as HRC, and I doubt he'll get enough minorities out to the polls.

[Corso]

i should really keep these stupid opinions to myself because they're not going to do anything except get me into fights, be misunderstood, and what good is it anyway?

Anyway- sorry for the ra t.

Craig, thank you for the posting, you have nothing to apologize for.

"What good is it anyway?"--I often ask myself. Our exchanges, which often do off the rails and get pointed, overall are (IMO) great at opening eyes to what others are thinking.

[lumpy]

My guy, Sherrod Brown is waiting to run against Ivanka in 2024.

Your guy is badly needed in the Senate until further notice. Thank goodness he seems to understand this and didn't throw his hat in the ring this cycle.

[al415]

Your guy is badly needed in the Senate until further notice. Thank goodness he seems to understand this and didn't throw his hat in the ring this cycle.

I don't think it's a caricature at all.

“I think you know there are a lot of white folks out there who are not necessarily racist who felt uncomfortable for the first time in their lives about whether or not they wanted to vote for an African-American,”

Sanders on white voters not voting for Black candidates because of their race.

[bcm119]

I'd vote for any of them, since it will be a binary choice in November. Whomever Nate Silver says has the best chances in the general election will get my vote in the primary. The subtle policy differences between the candidates mean little to me in the face of the crisis we're in. My personal preference is Warren, but I won't vote for her if it appears someone else would have a better chance.

[Matthew Strongin]

I'd vote for any of them, since it will be a binary choice in November. Whomever Nate Silver says has the best chances in the general election will get my vote in the primary. The subtle policy differences between the candidates mean little to me in the face of the crisis we're in. My personal preference is Warren, but I won't vote for her if it appears someone else would have a better chance.

Emphasis mine to highlight the word subtle. Outside of a few issues or implementation approaches, the span of policy positions among the candidates isn't really that wide. Here's a quiz (with a bunch of links to interview statements and policy positions) from The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...grees-with-me/

I've done this a few times as candidates have dropped out or my thoughts have changed on a specific policy. The widest range I've gotten is roughly 14 points for the candidate I most align with to 9 points for the candidate I don't. Of the frontrunners, they range from 13 to 10, with both Buttigieg and Warren at 13. My point is that they're all much more alike than they are different on a wide range of issues. And we shouldn't, IMO, be single issue voters unless that issue is winning the 2020 election (White House and Senate, preferably).

[thollandpe]

Emphasis mine to highlight the word subtle. Outside of a few issues or implementation approaches, the span of policy positions among the candidates isn't really that wide. Here's a quiz (with a bunch of links to interview statements and policy positions) from The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graph...grees-with-me/

I've done this a few times as candidates have dropped out or my thoughts have changed on a specific policy. The widest range I've gotten is roughly 14 points for the candidate I most align with to 9 points for the candidate I don't. Of the frontrunners, they range from 13 to 10, with both Buttigieg and Warren at 13. My point is that they're all much more alike than they are different on a wide range of issues. And we shouldn't, IMO, be single issue voters unless that issue is winning the 2020 election (White House and Senate, preferably).

That issues quiz and resulting matrix is cool. I'm most aligned with Warren and Steyer(?) and least with Biden and Gabbard. Klobuchar and Buttigieg are in the middle, go figure. One nuance it misses is how if your positions don't line up, a disagree is scored the same as almost agree. But it did correlate well with my subjective feelings for the candidates.

And regarding the Senate, press these buttons: payback project

[caleb]

Couple notes on nominating Bernie.

If the chaos voter theory is really valid, there might be more Trump -> Bernie voters than people expect.

In favor of nominating Bernie: For the past 20 years, the Rs have exploited the agenda setting power of campaigns. By moving the Overton Window further right even while losing, they've forced the Ds to become a centrist, interest-group based, party from Clinton to the present. The Ds are now advocating positions that would have been conservative in the Carter era: heads I win, tails you lose.

The issue the Ds have is that their party has a loose identity-based coalition structure that prevents them from moving left. Straightforwardly, identity-based parties have to stick to the center to maintain a viable coalition. For the party to become hard left, it has to restructure itself as a class-based party. That's what I see Bernie trying to do: turn an identity-coalition into a class party.

Win, loose, or draw, if the Ds nominate Bernie and he has a strong showing, it changes the character of the D party over the long run, and it shifts the Overton Window back left. There will be trickledown (yup, I just said that) effects for state and local left politics in which genuinely leftist policies are on the table in a way they haven't been for 40 years. State government and city councils would be changed.

The argument I see for nominating Bernie is to change the conversation, and to remodel the D party so that the conversation can be shifted left over the long haul. And, the downside risk isn't as great as it was four years ago: upon reelection, Trump will immediately become a lame duck with a D-controlled House, a schtick that's getting old, and a media that's going to quickly move on to speculating about his heir apparent. The reality TV show White House would command a lot less attention when we know it doesn't have a future.

Against nominating Bernie: If he loses, climate change, the student loan bubble, health care costs, and inequality will get four years worse, and that much harder to come back from.

[Corso]

Regardless of what you may think due to past and recent postings, I'm keeping my options open and I'm paying attention to what the D's have to say.

I like what I've heard from Kobuchar- she was for strict borders before she was against them- but hey, she's running for her parties nomination, so you gotta do what ya gotta do...

I'm glad Warren is getting - as she often says "hammered", because she's my Senator and other than making a ton of noise, she'd done nothing for me or my state. She's one giant walking house of hypocrisy. But then again, I "know" her due to geography.

If I were "closer" to the others, I may know more about them, like Liz. Thats why I started this thread, I want to hear form you folks who know the other candidates in more detail than I have.

Bloomberg---I'm not totally against. I know he's getting slammed for things he's said in the past, but honestly, he was calling it like he saw it in a few categories.

Bernie may be too far of the pendulum. It went way left With Obama, swung way right with Trump. I'm not sure we're ready for another waaaaay left swing.

Pete: I like what he has to say most times, but youth and "just" being a Mayor worries me. Congress and House will smack him around as not being one of "them".

Biden- just no. His vice presidency was a gift. He sounds awful lately.

Trump- we all know what we have now with him.

[deano]

I don't see Trump losing this one. He's not my horse, but the one I'd bet on come Derby Day.

[Blue Jays]

Democrat voter enthusiasm seems mostly aligned with Senator Sanders at this point.
Momentum seems to have significantly slowed for presumptive candidate VP Biden.
DNC and media seem to be heavily promoting Mayor Buttigieg and Mayor Bloomberg.

[zachateseverything]

I'm most closely aligned with Warren but unfortunately she's getting crowded out on both sides.

Bernie I'm less enthusiastic about than I was in 2016. Come election day he'll be a 79 year-old that's not very far removed from a heart attack. A lot of his economic policies also depend on the same kind of rosy 5% growth projection we get from the current administration.

Biden is probably done pending the South Carolina primary. Outside of the name recognition he hasn't really brought a lot of excitement to the race.

Klobuchar is interesting but she's far enough behind in national polling that she likely won't make up that gap before super tuesday.

Mayors Bloomberg and Pete are probably the two that would do the best in the general election. Both will struggle with energizing the african american community though.

The field is going to narrow a lot after the next 3 weeks. It'll be interesting to see what sticks. I know a lot of people are being negative of the dems chances in November but I think it's also important to remember that Trump won by about 100,000 votes spread over 3 states that Clinton, a historically unlikable candidate, mostly ignored and took for granted. Trump has also been incredibly polarizing since being elected and GOP candidates have been under-performing in every election held since 2016, even in areas he won handily.

This is going to come down to turnout. If the Dem ticket can energize their base and not scare off too many independents they will win. If they don't manage that they won't.

[Blue Jays]

Very insightful and compelling post, @zachateseverything.

[vertical_doug]

Media is reporting emerging possibility of a Mayor Bloomberg / Secretary of State Clinton ticket.

I always found Bloomberg to be smart but to pick Clinton is a losing ticket. He needs someone like Amy Klobuchar who can appeal to heartland. Bloomberg as a life long NYer does not appeal to the middle. If he adds Clinton, then the Bernie fans will feel cheated again by the DNC leaders as the fix is in. I really hope this is a leak by someone trying to sabotage Hillary early in the process