Re: Covid19
Originally Posted by
guido
Coronavirus modelers factor in new public health risk: Accusations their work is a hoax | Washington Post
"Running beneath it all, in a continuous loop through our national psyche, are basic questions leaders are struggling to answer: When can we safely lift these quarantines? How many people could die if we do it too early? Just how dangerous will this pandemic turn out to be? And what exactly should be our next step?
This is why epidemiology exists. Its practitioners use math and scientific principles to understand disease, project its consequences, and figure out ways to survive and overcome it. Their models are not meant to be crystal balls predicting exact numbers or dates. They forecast how diseases will spread under different conditions. And their models allow policymakers to foresee challenges, understand trend lines and make the best decisions for the public good.
But one factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models."
If I knocked a full bottle of red wine over on the dinner table, i'm not sure that personally, (now this is just me talking here...) that i'd spend a lot of precious time
yelling about the country that grew the grapes, or made the bottle, i'd get a fuckin' cloth and fast, because even a 6 year old knows the spill is spreading unless
you take action to stop it. And if a scientist happened to be at the table, and could quickly calculate how long i had to act, i'd probably listen to them.
-g
EPOst hoc ergo propter hoc
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