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[jclay]

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[theflashunc]

This never makes sense. Do you honestly believe that 3 years into the trump presidency the historical record breaking economic numbers are not due to trumps policies, but due to Obama policies?

What specific obama policies led to the stock market at historical highs, unemployment at historical lows, resurgence of manufacturing, the fastest wage growth in a decade.....all 3 years into the trump presidency?

Well, the most important names for economic success the last decade aren't Obama and Trump, but Bernanke, Yellen and Powell. And for the trajectory we're on today? Paulson, with a mix of Geithner in there post-crisis.

A decade plus of low interest rates and expansive Fed balance sheet expansion have avoided the economic reckoning sitting on our doorstep in 2008/2009. Trump's policies, namely the tax cut, have moderately goosed the economy like a temporary sugar high, but both the long-term Fed policy and the current administration's policies have left us with no ammunition to use when/if the economy slows. Fed's only room on rate cuts going forward on any significant economic slowdown is into negative territory, which is a serious problem, to put it lightly. And the ballooning deficit from the cuts will become a problem that GOP conveniently forgot about once Obama left office. Just where did all those deficit hawks go in 2016 I wonder.

So yes, the short-term, he's done quite a bit to keep growth north of 2% (still well below the 5% plus he was proclaiming on the campaign trail), but there will be a bump at some point sooner rather than later, and we're woefully unequipped to deal with it.

[guido]

New Yorker | The Choice Between Labour and Leave in the U.K. General Election

[jclay]

Well, the most important names for economic success the last decade aren't Obama and Trump, but Bernanke, Yellen and Powell. And for the trajectory we're on today? Paulson, with a mix of Geithner in there post-crisis.

A decade plus of low interest rates and expansive Fed balance sheet expansion have avoided the economic reckoning sitting on our doorstep in 2008/2009. Trump's policies, namely the tax cut, have moderately goosed the economy like a temporary sugar high, but both the long-term Fed policy and the current administration's policies have left us with no ammunition to use when/if the economy slows. Fed's only room on rate cuts going forward on any significant economic slowdown is into negative territory, which is a serious problem, to put it lightly. And the ballooning deficit from the cuts will become a problem that GOP conveniently forgot about once Obama left office. Just where did all those deficit hawks go in 2016 I wonder.

So yes, the short-term, he's done quite a bit to keep growth north of 2% (still well below the 5% plus he was proclaiming on the campaign trail), but there will be a bump at some point sooner rather than later, and we're woefully unequipped to deal with it.

Bingo.

[guido]

Washington Post | The Arctic may have crossed key threshold, emitting billions of tons of carbon into the air, in a long-dreaded climate feedback

[BBB]

This is a fairly powerful article.

The east coast of Australia has experienced two waves of bushfires, the first in September and the second in November, which is still burning. The current Australian Government has actively opposed doing anything meaningful on the topic of climate change and now find themselves seriously exposed. Traditionally fire season peaked in February at the end of summer when vegetation was at its driest. However, drought and early waves of hot weather has led to large bushfires. In spring. The complete absence of leadership in Australia on this issue is, as the article suggests, quite frightening. Our current Prime Minister is a charlatan and incapable of leading on this issue (on most issues in fact). To draw an analogy, admittedly imperfect, if climate change is the impending tsunami that was WW2, our current PM is Neville Chamberlain (hopelessly out of his depth and denying the bleeding obvious). Sadly, there is no Churchill waiting in the wings.

Scott Morrison and the Coalition are fiddling as Australia burns | Katharine Murphy | Australia news | The Guardian

[72gmc]

Does AUS also have a history of misguided wildland fire policies, as has been the case in the US?

[BBB]

Not that I'm aware.

There is an allegation that Green politicians have blocked clearing etc and hence made fire loads greater, but I think this has been all but disproved.

As I understand, the current round of fires have involved two key factors; drought and unseasonably warm weather.

[guido]

Tragic that at the moment we face the sternest challenges, we have completely feckless and corrupt leaders. When we need leaders of farsighted wisdom you guys are sent Morrison, the Brits Johnson and the US gets Trump.

[vertical_doug]

I'll paste this here. It is Paul Volcker's finally essay sent to the FT in September 3 mo before he died.




Paul Volcker 4 hours ago


This piece was written in September, three months before the author’s death on December 8, as the afterword to the forthcoming paperback edition of his autobiography.

By the late summer of 2018, it was already clear that the US and the world order it had helped establish during my lifetime were facing deep-seated political, economic, and cultural challenges.

Nonetheless, I drew reassurance from my mother’s reminder that the US had endured a brutal civil war, two world wars, a great depression, and still emerged as the leader of the “free world”, a model for democracy, open markets, free trade, and economic growth. That was, for me, a source of both pride and hope.

Today, threats facing that model have grown more ominous, and our ability to withstand them feels less certain. Increasingly, by design or not, there appears to be a movement to undermine Americans’ faith in our government and its policies and institutions. We’ve moved well beyond former president Ronald Reagan’s credo that “government is the problem”, with its aim of reversing decades of federal expansion.

Today we see something very different and far more sinister. Nihilistic forces are dismantling policies to protect our air, water, and climate. And they seek to discredit the pillars of our democracy: voting rights and fair elections, the rule of law, the free press, the separation of powers, the belief in science, and the concept of truth itself.

Without them, the American example that my mother so cherished will revert to the kind of tyranny that once seemed to be on its way to extinction — though, sadly, it remains ensconced in some less fortunate parts of the world.

When I was writing my book, I observed that President Donald Trump had not attacked the independent US Federal Reserve, for which I was grateful. To say that is no longer true would be an understatement.

Not since just after the second world war have we seen a president so openly seek to dictate policy to the Fed. That is a matter of great concern, given that the central bank is one of our key governmental institutions, carefully designed to be free of purely partisan attacks.


I trust that the members of the Federal Reserve Board itself, the members of Congress responsible for Fed oversight, and indeed the public at large, will maintain the Fed’s ability to act in the nation’s interest, free of partisan political purposes.

Monetary policy is important, but it cannot by itself sustain global leadership. We need open markets and strong allies to support economic growth and the prospects for peace. Those constructive American policies have been a large part of my life. Instead, confidence in the US is under siege.

Seventy-five years ago, Americans rose to the challenge of vanquishing tyranny overseas. We joined with our allies, keenly recognising the need to defend and sustain our hard-won democratic freedoms. Today’s generation faces a different, but equally existential, test. How we respond will determine the future of our own democracy and, ultimately, of the planet itself.

There is a need to “keep at it”. It cannot be set aside.

The writer was chairman of the Board of Governors of the US Federal Reserve System from 1979 to 1987. Christine Harper co-wrote this piece as well as their book ‘Keeping At It: The Quest for Sound Money and Good Government’. The paperback edition is scheduled for publication next year by PublicAffairs


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2019. All rights reserved.
U

[mzilliox]

Love the above. Well written, fair, clear. Yet many will read this (or not at all and pretend they did) and react with the same knee jerk reaction to everything else that threatens their identity, whatever they think that is, while putting zero thought into whats actually best for a diverse population, not just themselves. Some will try to make a case that this admin is actually doing the things on which the article raises alarm. you are wrong, this person has done more work to find the truth, your armchair efforts are of no compare.

who reads this and thinks the person is partisan? or full of it? or lying? How about when the president speaks, do you think its partisan? full of it? a lie?

and we are not done talking about how little a president does and should influence the economy. because this is the ultimate talking point, the only thing Trumpers can hold onto, but it's not theirs. A few smart folks keep pointing this out, some even have named the actual names influencing monetary policy for the last few decades. So when you read this, start top actually think about it. think about what it means that this president really has done no governing, just playing at monetary policy.

heres a quote from the above, and the most poignant to me when folks try to claim "but the economy"

"Not since just after the second world war have we seen a president so openly seek to dictate policy to the Fed. That is a matter of great concern, given that the central bank is one of our key governmental institutions, carefully designed to be free of purely partisan attacks.

I trust that the members of the Federal Reserve Board itself, the members of Congress responsible for Fed oversight, and indeed the public at large, will maintain the Fed’s ability to act in the nation’s interest, free of partisan political purposes.

Monetary policy is important, but it cannot by itself sustain global leadership. We need open markets and strong allies to support economic growth and the prospects for peace. Those constructive American policies have been a large part of my life. Instead, confidence in the US is under siege."


The economy does the economy always, it always will, because thats how it works. People, products, supply, demand, the president only can use a few tools to nudge, and this president has no more nudges, hes used all of them to keep us at a whopping 3% growth. hes used every single tool to simply keep up with the norm.

And Trump supporters (its absolutely y shocking there are any more, I mean are you a sadist, do you like being abused and lied to?) would have me think this is something to b proud of... oh, big orange man does money things, hes so powerful, and tough, and oh yeah, successful, so successful hes being impeached

[ides1056]

I have to say it is pretty hard not to despair at this moment in human history, particularly since it was avoidable. The problems we now face were apparent forty years ago. I knew trouble was coming, but did not expect it would come so soon.

Elections do have consequences. That has always been the case. I think it's fair to say, despite the fact that our two parties aren't as different as some might believe, that one side has been constrained by the spirit of democracy, even if they may not have acted to the letter of the law. The other has constantly and shamelessly acted in bad faith, going back to Nixon.

[Dallas Tex]

Love the above. Well written, fair, clear. Yet many will read this (or not at all and pretend they did) and react with the same knee jerk reaction to everything else that threatens their identity, whatever they think that is, while putting zero thought into whats actually best for a diverse population, not just themselves. Some will try to make a case that this admin is actually doing the things on which the article raises alarm. you are wrong, this person has done more work to find the truth, your armchair efforts are of no compare.

who reads this and thinks the person is partisan? or full of it? or lying? How about when the president speaks, do you think its partisan? full of it? a lie?

and we are not done talking about how little a president does and should influence the economy. because this is the ultimate talking point, the only thing Trumpers can hold onto, but it's not theirs. A few smart folks keep pointing this out, some even have named the actual names influencing monetary policy for the last few decades. So when you read this, start top actually think about it. think about what it means that this president really has done no governing, just playing at monetary policy.

heres a quote from the above, and the most poignant to me when folks try to claim "but the economy"

"Not since just after the second world war have we seen a president so openly seek to dictate policy to the Fed. That is a matter of great concern, given that the central bank is one of our key governmental institutions, carefully designed to be free of purely partisan attacks.

I trust that the members of the Federal Reserve Board itself, the members of Congress responsible for Fed oversight, and indeed the public at large, will maintain the Fed’s ability to act in the nation’s interest, free of partisan political purposes.

Monetary policy is important, but it cannot by itself sustain global leadership. We need open markets and strong allies to support economic growth and the prospects for peace. Those constructive American policies have been a large part of my life. Instead, confidence in the US is under siege."


The economy does the economy always, it always will, because thats how it works. People, products, supply, demand, the president only can use a few tools to nudge, and this president has no more nudges, hes used all of them to keep us at a whopping 3% growth. hes used every single tool to simply keep up with the norm.

And Trump supporters (its absolutely y shocking there are any more, I mean are you a sadist, do you like being abused and lied to?) would have me think this is something to b proud of... oh, big orange man does money things, hes so powerful, and tough, and oh yeah, successful, so successful hes being impeached

I won’t ‘knee jerk’ response your post or the Volcker essay if you don’t knee jerk my response. IMHO it is a bit intellectually lazy to believe that people that don’t agree do so out of fear that their ‘identity is threatened’ , or have put ‘zero thought’ into their opinions or only value what’s best for themselves.

Agreed, that’s a great essay. Paul Volcker is waaaaaay more intelligent, skilled, and knowledgeable than anyone posting here.

Again, my humble opinion, does that mean one can’t disagree with points in this essay or is full obedience a must?

Let me give a few examples of things from the essay where my opinion may be different. These are examples, please understand my intent is to make a point using examples. The examples are not the point, please don’t respond with endless links pointing to ‘irrefutable opinions’ as to why my opinion is wrong.

"Today we see something very different and far more sinister. Nihilistic forces are dismantling policies to protect our air, water, and climate. And they seek to discredit the pillars of our democracy: voting rights and fair elections, the rule of law, the free press, the separation of powers, the belief in science, and the concept of truth itself".

This entire portion IMHO seems a bit dramatic using words like 'Sinister'. But far more importantly it doesn't allow for any variance from what is dictated. Any reduction in EPA regulation is evil, anything less than an increase in regulation is pure evil.

The Sinister & Nihilistic forces at work are requiring a picture ID to vote? Again, IMHO that doesn't signal an evil forces attacking our freedoms.

Yelling at the Fed for lower interest rates? Yes, this is new & different. This is not adhering to the established protocols. Good.



Matt, IMHO your response is an example of what I find as the biggest threat to our society and country. The demand to be obedient to the established status quo. Don't bother asking questions. Don't bother challenging conventional wisdom. Accept, without question, points of view that match yours. Aggressively avoid, insult, mock anyone that dares to challenge or not agree with the orthodoxy.

[guido]

More of that great non-orthodox thinking...

Trump’s speech in Hershey revealed a presidency off the rails - Vox

[bcm119]

Yelling at the Fed for lower interest rates? Yes, this is new & different. This is not adhering to the established protocols. Good.

why is that good?

[theflashunc]

Matt, IMHO your response is an example of what I find as the biggest threat to our society and country. The demand to be obedient to the established status quo. Don't bother asking questions. Don't bother challenging conventional wisdom. Accept, without question, points of view that match yours. Aggressively avoid, insult, mock anyone that dares to challenge or not agree with the orthodoxy.

You've just described the President's public persona and demands for absolute fealty to any claim he makes, no matter how detached from reality.

[Dallas Tex]

Matt, IMHO your response is an example of what I find as the biggest threat to our society and country. The demand to be obedient to the established status quo. Don't bother asking questions. Don't bother challenging conventional wisdom. Accept, without question, points of view that match yours. Aggressively avoid, insult, mock anyone that dares to challenge or not agree with the orthodoxy.

You've just described the President's public persona and demands for absolute fealty to any claim he makes, no matter how detached from reality.

You gotta be the first guy ever to accuse the president of being status quo and adhering to orthodoxy.

Could we agree that that would be bad behavior for a president as well as those enforcing left leaning orthodoxy?

[theflashunc]

You gotta be the first guy ever to accuse the president of being status quo and adhering to orthodoxy.

Could we agree that that would be bad behavior for a president as well as those enforcing left leaning orthodoxy?

His orthodoxy. His status quo. He demands ultimate and unquestioning fealty to anything he does or says, no matter how outlandish.

And yes, if President Obama demanded the same things I'd be equally horrified. But he didn't.

Purity tests of any kind are terribly politics in a system designed for compromise, but this isn't some "whatboutism" here. One is a cult of personality. The other is a diaspora that struggles for consensus.

[caleb]

More of that great non-orthodox thinking...

Trump’s speech in Hershey revealed a presidency off the rails - Vox

“You have great people in the FBI, but not in leadership. You have not good people in leadership,” Trump said.

Who exactly does he think the leadership is in the executive branch?

[caleb]

Yelling at the Fed for lower interest rates? Yes, this is new & different. This is not adhering to the established protocols. Good.

I just hope somebody has a plan for what we do when the economy goes into recession and we're already at 0% or so.

Borrowing a bunch of money from China would seem like the obvious option, which would be a really bad plan.