Ukraine

[j44ke]

This topic has descended into hyperbole and unsupported statements. I advise folks on writing their thesis and the most common comment is: "if you say that, you have to provide evidence to back it up."

Agreed.

[jclay]

I found this article on the UN interesting. I need to read more about it but, well, "how convenient" comes to mind.

https://theintercept.com/2022/04/09/...nskyy-ukraine/

[Marvinlungwitz]

Russian Imperial Movement versus Azov. Pick your poison.

It's not like Putin doesn't have the support of white supremacists/Neo-Nazis within and outside Russia.

[bcm119]

I found this article on the UN interesting. I need to read more about it but, well, "how convenient" comes to mind.

https://theintercept.com/2022/04/09/...nskyy-ukraine/

Citations of The Intercept don't belong in a serious discussion of politics.

[jclay]

Citations of The Intercept don't belong in a serious discussion of politics.

Is the information presented within that particular article incorrect, out of reasonable context or somehow an illegitimate detail to be aware of? I’m not terribly concerned with messengers; it’s the messages that interest me. If you’re aware of mitigating details I’d certainly like to hear them.

[bcm119]

Is the information presented within that particular article incorrect, out of reasonable context or somehow an illegitimate detail to be aware of? I’m not terribly concerned with messengers; it’s the messages that interest me. If you’re aware of mitigating details I’d certainly like to hear them.

I don't know, I can't read the article without giving them my email address. But everything I've read from them connects dots with no evidence to appeal to ultra progressive irrationality. They know what they are doing -- it is the far left version of Tucker Carlson's "I'm just asking questions" formula for amassing an audience. If this article is just facts with no spin or unsupported inferences, I apologize for the off the cuff comment.

[jclay]

I don't know, I can't read the article without giving them my email address. But everything I've read from them connects dots with no evidence to appeal to ultra progressive irrationality. They know what they are doing -- it is the far left version of Tucker Carlson's "I'm just asking questions" formula for amassing an audience. If this article is just facts with no spin or unsupported inferences, I apologize for the off the cuff comment.

It addresses this aspect (quote, below) of of the UN, how this particular language came to be, aspirations for changing it even during the early years of the UN, and it's ramifications both past and present; several historical citations are contained within the article:

"As Article 27 says, Security Council resolutions — including the authorization of the use of force — require the votes of nine of the 15 members to pass. But any resolution, no matter how many votes it has in favor, fails if one or more of the five permanent members votes no. That is exactly what happened on February 25, when a proposed resolution condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine failed on vote of 11-1. That is, while 11 Security Council members voted yes, one, Russia, voted no. (China abstained, as did two of the rotating members, India and the United Arab Emirates.)"

I have not yet read the cited material. Never the less, at first blush the veto power of any one of the five permanent security council members sounds an awful lot like victor's rules and extremely convenient for them; the powerful don't easily share it.

You might find it worth your email address.

[jimcav]

this seems ancient news to me, something I new before attending USNA, but now I don't remember which high school history class (assume world history). It was definitely covered in multiple poli-sci classes (low intensity conflict was one). My folks were anti-Vietnam war, and the UN was squarely against the "war" there, but could do zip due to the US veto.

The last time I can remember the UN security council doing anything regards an invasion was preceding Gulf War 1, where they gave Iraq 45 days to get out of Kuwait, and then the de-arming resolution, which later somewhat was used as part of rationale that led US+ allies to invade Iraq etc. If memory serves that (de-arming res) was a unanimous vote, which makes me wonder if there were any behind the scenes deals. I thought at the time it was a bit stupid, because what do you do if Iraq didn't met obligations--reports said they didn't, but the UN council members wouldn't go for war, so what next. We developed a coalition independent of the UN. Now our coalition is just much more reserved, due I suppose to the more potent possibility of WMD.

I still think Russia would not use nukes, as it almost ensures destruction. There is a very far chasm between the rhetoric of "using nukes if there is an existential threat to Russia", and being credibly able to convince the global community it is really an existential threat if you get driven back out of a sovereign nation you invaded.

[bigbill]

Interesting events today. Sweden and Finland leaning towards NATO which further encircles Russia. Veiled Russian threats towards those nations which Finland says is nothing new.

The sinking of the Moscow guided missile cruiser. The Slava class used to be the most feared surface combatant due to its ability to launch numerous cruise missiles at once which would overwhelm US Navy point defense systems. The Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainians claimed to have struck it with shore launched anti-ship missiles and the Russians said it was a fire that reached munitions. If the Russians did in fact evacuate everyone safely, then I believe the fire story. A missile strike could cause the fires, but with 500 sailors on a 600 foot ship, there would be casualties. In the end, it doesn't matter who is telling the truth, the Russians lost a national asset and at this point would rather blame it on incompetence than Ukrainian resolve.

The US is sending weapons, some of which were originally slated for the Afghan security forces than include Mi-18 helicopters and many field artillery pieces. We've also sent 500 or so anti-tank missiles. Lets hope the Russians fold up and leave Ukraine because they have more tanks remaining than the Ukrainians have missiles.

[Philster]

I appreciate Doug Fattic’s comments on here. He has a real sense for the human toll, first hand knowledge, and a sense of balance. Thank you!

[Mabouya]

I appreciate Doug Fattic’s comments on here. He has a real sense for the human toll, first hand knowledge, and a sense of balance. Thank you!

As much as I agree with this ^^^ post, I feel I have to add the following proviso, hoping that it doesn't appear too argumentative:

Yes, first-hand knowledge is appreciated, but given the scale of the disaster that's been unfolding before our eyes and the undeniable information that's been presented by a number of independent news sources, it's pretty clear to all that the human toll is waaaaay up there, beyond, the "horrific" category. And as far as a "sense of balance" goes, the root-causes of the war are plain to see, and it's inappropriate to look for balance, or explanations from both sides. We know who started this, why it was started (e.g. blaming it on "NATO expansion" is a farce, if I've ever heard one) and who's been responsible for the atrocities and war crimes against civilians. None of this can be minimized or downplayed. Similar things happen in other parts of the world and don't generate even a fraction of the news coverage or outrage, but that's a separate question for another day.

[vertical_doug]

Interesting events today. Sweden and Finland leaning towards NATO which further encircles Russia. Veiled Russian threats towards those nations which Finland says is nothing new.

The sinking of the Moscow guided missile cruiser. The Slava class used to be the most feared surface combatant due to its ability to launch numerous cruise missiles at once which would overwhelm US Navy point defense systems. The Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainians claimed to have struck it with shore launched anti-ship missiles and the Russians said it was a fire that reached munitions. If the Russians did in fact evacuate everyone safely, then I believe the fire story. A missile strike could cause the fires, but with 500 sailors on a 600 foot ship, there would be casualties. In the end, it doesn't matter who is telling the truth, the Russians lost a national asset and at this point would rather blame it on incompetence than Ukrainian resolve.

The US is sending weapons, some of which were originally slated for the Afghan security forces than include Mi-18 helicopters and many field artillery pieces. We've also sent 500 or so anti-tank missiles. Lets hope the Russians fold up and leave Ukraine because they have more tanks remaining than the Ukrainians have missiles.

I think the Russian cover story that the Moskva sank because of a fire and bad weather is even more embarrassing than being sunk by a Ukrainian missile. Said another way, our flagship sank because our Navy is incompetent and we don't know what we are doing.

On a side note, the channel island of Jersey froze $7billion in Roman Abramovich's assets. If the cloak of secrecy on the off-shore money centers is finally cracked open chasing Russian money, it'd be a real nice side benefit to fighting kleptocracy globally.

[bigbill]

I think the Russian cover story that the Moskva sank because of a fire and bad weather is even more embarrassing than being sunk by a Ukrainian missile. Said another way, our flagship sank because our Navy is incompetent and we don't know what we are doing.

On a side note, the channel island of Jersey froze $7billion in Roman Abramovich's assets. If the cloak of secrecy on the off-shore money centers is finally cracked open chasing Russian money, it'd be a real nice side benefit to fighting kleptocracy globally.

Don't know why their navy would be any more competent than their army. The Russians rarely do any fleet exercises because much of their fleet is Soviet vintage so the ships are 30+ years old. I was part of a naval exercise in 2012 out of Pearl Harbor and the Russians sent a cruiser. It left an oil slick next to the pier, made you want a tetanus shot for looking at it, and we had to do the combined fleet photo op at 10 knots because it couldn't go any faster. Their carrier transited the Mediterranean accompanied by an ocean-going tugboat (really large) so it could be towed when it broke down. The carrier burns bunker fuel, poorly, so you can see the exhaust from space.

A desperate Putin might use some weapons he's been holding back, but I think there is some concern that they won't work as advertised. I hope that fear of further losing face will deter him. I'm glad that the US is finally shipping weapons that are useful in the current war environment. As a retired military guy with a kid that commissions as a Marine Second Lieutenant next month, I truly hope that the Ukrainians take the offensive in eastern Ukraine and don't wait for the Russians to further reinforce.

[Doug Fattic]

I appreciate Doug Fattic’s comments on here. He has a real sense for the human toll, first hand knowledge, and a sense of balance. Thank you!

My point for posting experiences with the people I personally know in Ukraine is to bring the reality of the horror to us. In 2014 when I was in Bucha and watched to my enormous discomfort the condition of the refugees from eastern Ukraine flood onto campus, what I was observing seemed remote and uninteresting to some of my American friends.

Yuriy (my Ukrainian partner for making bicycles that escaped from the Bucha area) is temporally located in west Ukraine and is driving one of his daughter's family this week to Poland. He had to turn down my invitation to stay in the house my students use when taking my framebuilding class to take care of older and younger family members.

The laser cutting company that makes my framebuilding fixtures has actually cut another fixture for me since the invasion. That was the only available work for them to do. Their machinist has joined the Ukrainian forces and they had to use another nearby company to do the machined parts. The owner now has to walk an hour to work because buses don't run. They stopped going to the air raid shelters because it got to be too much to go there all the time. The sirens go off all the time but they are not in an area right now under attack. I'm curious how I might get this new fixture. Obviously I bought it without an expected delivery date :).

Anna our translator managed to get out of Kherson (A Russian occupied city just above Crimea) with her 2 little daughters to where her parent's are located. They went through 15 Russian and Ukrainian check points. That is better than Kherson but not a safe place. They can't go further because the car broke down. Somehow her husband made it out himself last night. He had been collecting and delivering food to those still stuck in the city on an electric scooter one of my friends bought him so he knew the back streets to escape. That is fortunate because young strong males are targeted by the Russian occupied troops. She is the designated guide for all her other family members and together they are going to Germany (she speaks German too) if they can get the car fixed. One of her aunts has a visa to come to the US from Germany. Then she will return to Ukraine to be with her family. She texted me this morning that there was a funeral for the son of the librarian at the college and how sad that was.

[classtimesailer]

Russian military equipment should be no match for the American's. Other than the gun boat motor fumes fouling the air, it is refreshing that a World Super Power can get by with so little in the way of military tech. They spend less than 10% of what U.S. spends for a variety of reasons. One of which is they don't have a desire to conquer and control the planet.

[Mabouya]

They spend less than 10% of what U.S. spends for a variety of reasons. One of which is they don't have a desire to conquer and control the planet.

Perhaps not, but they're sure hot to get their hands on the parts of Ukraine they haven't already taken, and even that seems to be beyond their means right now. I guess that 10% they did spend didn't quite get them what they thought it had.

As my grandmother used to say, "les yeux plus grands que la panse."

[ColonelJLloyd]

They spend less than 10% of what U.S. spends for a variety of reasons. One of which is they don't have a desire to conquer and control the planet.

Or is it more likely true that the only reason is that Russia's economy (pre February 24, 2022) was less than 10% than that of the US? Neither of us could credibly say, but folks can decide for themselves whether it more plausible that Russia has no desire to conquer and control or cannot afford to yield the big stick that would more easily enable it to do so.

[jclay]

The linked article is short; the embedded interview with Chomsky about an hour.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/20...s-one-know-one

[classtimesailer]

The linked article is short; the embedded interview with Chomsky about an hour.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/20...s-one-know-one

Scahill making it "clear" that war crimes and atrocities are being committed by Russia and Chomsky making it clear that America should continue to send arms so that Ukraine can defend itself. Sorry excuse for a left analysis. If there was time travel, and the 1980s Chomsky could listen to this interview, he could use it as an example of Manufacturing Consent where the scope of the analysis is very narrow.

[jclay]

Scahill making it "clear" that war crimes and atrocities are being committed by Russia and Chomsky making it clear that America should continue to send arms so that Ukraine can defend itself. Sorry excuse for a left analysis. If there was time travel, and the 1980s Chomsky could listen to this interview, he could use it as an example of Manufacturing Consent where the scope of the analysis is very narrow.

There's more nuance to it than that. Folks can listen and make up their own minds, or not.