Ukraine

[j44ke]

Russians evidently sending conscription age boys out of Russia for early spring break from school. Of course, this means Putin only gets the kids who can’t escape.

[Philster]

I never bought into Russia running out of materials. The question is how much they squander in Ukraine. The Russians heavily invested in weapons and weapons systems but apparently the Russian guy on the ground isn't very good at using them. The Russians didn't plan on the invasion going this long as shown by the shortage of supply trucks. A lot have been targeted but that doesn't account for severe shortages. I think the Russians planned on a swift move across Ukraine followed by the supplies after the Ukraine military had folded. Now they have to re-equip troops across hostile roadways.

As an uneducated observer, it seems like there are two choices here. (1) Putin is saving capability for something else or (2) Russia doesn’t have the volume of these advanced weapons that we thought it did. Is it possible that Putin was misled also?

[jclay]

You read this yet JC ?

https://us.macmillan.com/books/97812...rsofcapitalism

Only the description; probably won’t, preaching to the choir and all that. It’s getting depressing to see how our country has squandered its immense potential, rat-effed so many others and can’t come to grips with the immense changes required if we are to avoid trashing the planet and merely survive.

As an aside, I think entropy favors authoritarianism over democracy; democracy is hard and requires an educated, informed, ever active citizenry that rejects tribalism and makes wise, forward looking decisions; authoritarianism not so much.

[Dave Thompson]

As an uneducated observer, it seems like there are two choices here. (1) Putin is saving capability for something else or (2) Russia doesn’t have the volume of these advanced weapons that we thought it did. Is it possible that Putin was misled also?

A person in the intel community said that Russian doctrine and their equipment absolutely “sucks” and the Russian soldiers that have been captured in the Ukraine were primarily conscripts that weren’t aware of why they were fighting. Russia has lost 4 Generals killed and the Russian economy is really in the tank. He said Putin is a petulant narcissist and would rather drag Russia down if it meant avoiding failure. They are hoping that Putin doesn’t do something stupid.

[bigbill]

As an uneducated observer, it seems like there are two choices here. (1) Putin is saving capability for something else or (2) Russia doesn’t have the volume of these advanced weapons that we thought it did. Is it possible that Putin was misled also?

Russia runs on corruption. If Putin was misled, he had to have some idea that his people were lying. The Russians don't have a strong non-commissioned officer (E-6 to E-9) corps and rely on their officers and conscripts to fight the battles. This is the reason that so many senior Russian officers have been killed, they have to lead from the front.

Now Putin has to use weapons he didn't plan on utilizing. The recent supposed use of a hypersonic cruise missile is an example. It is carried on a Mig-31 so it can be launched from a supersonic speed from a long distance. This is all Putin can do short of nukes because he doesn't own the airspace.

[Philster]

Russia runs on corruption. If Putin was misled, he had to have some idea that his people were lying. The Russians don't have a strong non-commissioned officer (E-6 to E-9) corps and rely on their officers and conscripts to fight the battles. This is the reason that so many senior Russian officers have been killed, they have to lead from the front.

Now Putin has to use weapons he didn't plan on utilizing. The recent supposed use of a hypersonic cruise missile is an example. It is carried on a Mig-31 so it can be launched from a supersonic speed from a long distance. This is all Putin can do short of nukes because he doesn't own the airspace.

I agree with you, but I hope we don't bet on it.

[Will Neide]

The effectiveness and efficiency of drone usage is impressive to me. I never really thought of them as some kind of equalizer, but the drones have been providing Ukraine with a type of lifeline. I'm sure they could use donated jets, but maintaining a constant supply of drones seems more important. You aren't losing pilots when a drone is shot down.

[Peter Polack]

The effectiveness and efficiency of drone usage is impressive to me. I never really thought of them as some kind of equalizer, but the drones have been providing Ukraine with a type of lifeline. I'm sure they could use donated jets, but maintaining a constant supply of drones seems more important. You aren't losing pilots when a drone is shot down.

I don't understand how Ukraine still has a working air force-you would think Russia would have bombed their runways and aircraft into a state of rubble by now.

[j44ke]

I don't understand how Ukraine still has a working air force-you would think Russia would have bombed their runways and aircraft into a state of rubble by now.

Wonder if Russia wants to preserve airports for resupply of forces. There was footage earlier of Russian tanks getting caught and destroyed in a village - evidently at least some of them were filling up at a gas station. Reports also of Russian troops emptying out grocery stores. Resupply this way is probably not uncommon in urban warfare by an occupying force. But it does create vulnerabilities. Perhaps Ukrainian air defenses are still intact at airports? Or Putin feels blowing up civilians will end the conflict sooner?

[72gmc]

^^^ interesting thought that he’s maintaining key facilities for occupation, or for using Ukraine as a forward launch pad for attacking other former Soviet territories.

[j44ke]

I don't understand how Ukraine still has a working air force-you would think Russia would have bombed their runways and aircraft into a state of rubble by now.

NYTimes evidently had the same question.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/w...ce-russia.html

[Doug Fattic]

While you guys have been debating and reading about what has been going on in Ukraine, I've been busy using my contacts to send money for assistance. I've been thankful many have responded to our request for help. One of my former translators is the middleman between our assistance and their needs. It has been a real challenge to get money over there because the usual money transfer places have a lot of restrictions. Scammers are working this situation hard. I had to pass a test proving I personally knew who I was sending money too. Not just knew them but had met them '"eye to eye".

What they have been using the money for we have sent over is 1st for fuel to drive people to the border. They can bring back food on the return trip. It is getting very scarce locally. My translator lives in a city already under Russian control. She can transfer money to members of the Odessa church that is hard at work with refugee relief efforts. The church has a large kitchen where large volumes of food can be prepared in big kettles. It was already prepared to do this because it is often a meeting center. Meals are served in the church as well as out at the train station. Almost all of these volunteers are out of work because no businesses are functioning. Of course it is a worry how long they will be able to do this because Odessa is a prime port city target for the Russians.

It is fortunate that because of our ongoing bicycle project, there are people I know and trust already in place that I can send the money raised here over there. They can communicate back to me how it was used and what is happening. Your FoFundMe dollars at work.

The first 3 pictures are at the church and the last 2 at the railway station.

[thollandpe]

While you guys have been debating and reading about what has been going on in Ukraine, I've been busy using my contacts to send money for assistance. I've been thankful many have responded to our request for help. One of my former translators is the middleman between our assistance and their needs. It has been a real challenge to get money over there because the usual money transfer places have a lot of restrictions. Scammers are working this situation hard. I had to pass a test proving I personally knew who I was sending money too. Not just knew them but had met them '"eye to eye".

What they have been using the money for we have sent over is 1st for fuel to drive people to the border. They can bring back food on the return trip. It is getting very scarce locally. My translator lives in a city already under Russian control. She can transfer money to members of the Odessa church that is hard at work with refugee relief efforts. The church has a large kitchen where large volumes of food can be prepared in big kettles. It was already prepared to do this because it is often a meeting center. Meals are served in the church as well as out at the train station. Almost all of these volunteers are out of work because no businesses are functioning. Of course it is a worry how long they will be able to do this because Odessa is a prime port city target for the Russians.

It is fortunate that because of our ongoing bicycle project, there are people I know and trust already in place that I can send the money raised here over there. They can communicate back to me how it was used and what is happening. Your FoFundMe dollars at work.

The first 3 pictures are at the church and the last 2 at the railway station.

Awesome work, Doug. My company — normally somewhat staid, conservative, and slow-to-act — has been matching donations to Ukraine. Please post your link again. I will hit that.

[smontanaro]

Awesome work, Doug. My company — normally somewhat staid, conservative, and slow-to-act — has been matching donations to Ukraine. Please post your link again. I will hit that.

I'm clearly late to this thread. (I didn't know it existed until Doug pointed it out to me.) I'm helping him gather donations to ditribute to a group in Ukraine with which Doug is affiiliated. There is a thread elsewhere on VS:

https://www.velocipedesalon.com/foru...ine-56787.html

but here is the direct GoFundMe link if you'd like to contribute:

https://gofund.me/3a4945ac

If you have any questions, let me know.

[j44ke]

Awesome.

[jclay]

This: "Biden is a diplomatic liability. He’s playing into Putin’s hands" (Simon Jenkins); and it should be no surprise.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ty-putin-hands

And this: "Not One Bloc or the Other: Ukraine War Shows Emerging Post-American World" (Murtaza Hussain)

"Despite being browbeaten by the U.S., a growing number of Asian, African, and Latin American countries are charting a neutral path."

https://theintercept.com/2022/03/26/...gldYrud9nq3vSg

The world ain't our oyster anymore; time to govern ourselves accordingly, clean our own house, maybe take nuclear armed folks with whom we disagree, seriously (like "not advance NATO")....and start facing up to the enormous existential climate/environmental issues that face us, never mind growing economic inequality.

And this: https://theintercept.com/2022/03/20/...ons-sanctions/
Has US toppling other governments ever really worked well for the country at issue?

[Marvinlungwitz]

It seems that Russia has been pretty busy influencing US elections (in effect, fostering regime change). Russian propaganda is shown nightly on Fox News.

I find it odd that the Western press, including that in the US, find Biden’s comments alarming in the face of what Russia has been doing to our political system for years.

(Sure, there are significant domestic issues, but as I recall, Biden’s proposed legislation to address economic equality and climate change hasn't fared well in Congress).

2022 and 2024 elections will likely see the return of a pro Russian US government with strong anti environmental policy. We’ll go back to a Manafort-like pro Russian Ukraine meddling. But it might stop the war - “Peace in our time”, so to speak, eh? We should be careful what we wish for, imo.

[BBB]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...war-in-ukraine

Disgusting.

[Doug Fattic]

IMG_0221.jpg

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...war-in-ukraine
Disgusting.

This picture is of a poster mounted on a fence surrounding a city park in the town of Bucha. In the States, there are many news articles this past weekend (April 2 and 3) that mention the town of Bucha. Recently the Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of there (and its sister city of Irpin) so journalists could take pictures of the carnage. They show civilians murdered in the streets. The guy shot while just riding his bicycle was particularly disturbing. Bucha is the town where I stay almost every year for 2 or 3 weeks at a time. I have cycled there a lot.

Bucha is a bedroom community to Kyiv. Over those years, there has been lots of expensive houses built up around the school where I stay. Houses that are a lot nicer then in my hometown of Niles, MI. They are not typical of Ukraine at all. There are a lot of reports of looting by the Russians and I'm sure all these new houses were prime targets.

I had a couple of bikes to ride in the evenings. One was a steel Trek road bike I repainted and equipped with used Campy 8 speed for longer rides. The other is one of our Ukraine transportation bicycles with a 7sp IGH. I was never in a hurry cruising around on that bike. There is a beautiful city park with winding bike/walking trails less than a km away from campus. That is where I took a picture of the poster. Sometimes students from the college would like to go with me on longer rides.

The Ukrainian fellow I have worked with for 22 years emailed me yesterday from western Ukraine. As mentioned before he was able to escape that area after hiding in his root cellar for 2 weeks. He has no idea of the condition of his house fairly close to the school. Neither does he have any idea of the status of our shop.

Even if the shop can be repaired, the whole infrastructure that allowed my framebuilding students to get real training after learning the basics has been destroyed. It was convenient for them to say in a dorm and eat in the cafeteria. I also had about a half dozen Europeans stay there to take a shortened framebuilding class. One of them wrote me yesterday saying how very upset he was seeing the destruction in the city where he had been.

[j44ke]

Thanks Doug. You are doing some good work. Let's hope the help for Ukraine extends to the rebuilding.